Revisiting optimal lineups
by Matt in LA on Jul 21, 2009 5:42 PM EDT
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PrintIdeas from this post on BTB. Quick stats on B-Ref.
The quick strategy is that your best 3 hitters should bat 1, 2 and 4. Next best bats 5th, then 3rd (flipped if the guy going into the 5 hole is a homer-or-nothing guy), then 6-9 as logic dictates (preferring a speed guy at 6).
The Indians top 3 are Choo, Victor and Hafner, but let's assume Grady should be there. Next up is Garko, then Drubs, with the riff-raff filling out the bottom of the lineup. I'll give Jhonny the benefit of the doubt and put him atop that list, since we know he's capable.
Here's how I see our best (with Victor behind the plate, Hafner playing, no roster moves) lineup:
1 - Choo (high obp)
2 - Hafner (high obp, could/should be Sizemore)
3 - Garko (cringe - 5th best hitter)
4 - Victor (best hitter with power, could be Hafner)
5 - Sizemore (would be Victor, if Sizemore was 2nd)
6 - Drubs
7 - Jhonny
8 - Francisco
9 - Carbuena
When Shoppach plays and bumps Francisco, I'd leave him 8th. If he bumps Garko, I guess Jhonny would be 3rd? And Francisco/Shoppach 7th or 8th is a wash.
What does everybody think? Personal catchers aside, who should trot out behind Lee tonight?
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I think Sizemore is our best hitter and should be hitting second.
Batting him 5th is insane.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
REC!
Seriously, Grady is still our best hitter. He didn’t have a great start to the season (which may or may not have been due to an injury) but he’s coming off four great seasons and just entering his prime. He should be second.
The problem is the 3 of our best 4 hitters (Grady, Choo, Hafner) are lefties and you’d like to avoid hitting them back-to-back, so you can’t put them 1/2 or 4/5. But that makes fitting them in that model difficult.
by Buckeye Brad on Jul 21, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m quite content with Asdrubal-Grady at the top. It isn’t ideal to have Victor bat 3rd based on optimization, but it’s not that bad of an idea. Then you have Hafner or Choo, followed by whatever. Done.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Sounds good to me. Glad we can be on the same page, Jay.
by Buckeye Brad on Jul 21, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Jay, I’m a little surprised you want Asdrubal up there. How do you see him projecting to a high OBP guy? Looking at minor and major league stats, you can’t really count on him breaking .370 regularly. He’s already settling in on a walk rate upwards of 10% with an above par BABIP. His added value with age will be whatever power he develops.
LeCavs!
If you were good enough, maybe we'd name it after you.
Hello Jay,
With all due respect, I think Martinez and Hafner are better pure hitters than Sizemore; as for Grady batting 2nd, I’d rather see him hitting 5th or 6th – his power would be more beneficial, his strikeouts would be less problematic (though he still needs to cut them down and not be so streaky, all the more reason why he should NOT be batting 2nd), and his speed would be beneficial to those who want speed in the 6th spot (that’s not as much of a concern for me), but the power and strikeouts would fit better in the middle part of the order in my opinion.
To me, a #2 hitter is one who moves the runner along and hits for a high (.300+ or darn close) BA – that, in my mind, is not Grady (too streaky and not hitting .300, plus concentrating on moving the runners along would negate his above-average to excellent power, though, as mentioned, he does need to cut down on the Ks and raise the batting average regardless of where he is in the lineup).
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
The point isn’t to adhere slavishly to conventional wisdom.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Also! Are we really going to use batting average and strikeouts as our criteria in drawing up this hypothetical lineup? Why not RBI, or ability to make a good omelet?
I like that. Make the lineup look aesthetically pleasing when they actually stand in order in a line.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 26, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
But which is more aesthetically pleasing, short-to-tall, tall-to-short or short-to-tall-to-short? I like tall-to-short-to-tall, because it would look like a Shō, which is modeled after the wings of a phoenix, which is what this team needs.
I’d say go with short-to-tall-to-short, but then, the point isn’t to adhere slavishly to conventional wisdom.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 26, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
To me, a #2 hitter is one who moves the runner along and hits for a high (.300+ or darn close) BA
Studies have shown that the #2 hitter should be the best overall hitter in the lineup so maybe you should redefine your criteria for a #2 hitter.
by Buckeye Brad on Jul 26, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Could 2-4 be any slower? Sloths bat 4-7 maybe 3 in a pinch. I could deal with
Sizemore
Drubs
Choo
VMart
Hafner
Garko
Peralta
LaPorta
Carbuena
Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic. - Robert S. Wieder
hate the idea of hafner in the two hole… if the reason choo is leading off is his ability to get on base, you’re effectively nullifying it by putting a swing and miss hitter behind him… i like choo at the top, but i’ll stick with asdrubal behind him, who’s contact ability is decent enough
put sizemore in the three hole… granted he k’s, but his on-base ability and power belong there… ZiPS has him returning to his old self… with the injury i’m not optimistic of that much, but he’s not as bad as his first half
all this, of course, sets the table for vmart… good contact rates, decent power, decent ability to get on base
pronk 5th, garko 6th, peralta 7th (although i pray every night marte is the real deal, making jhonny expendable), LaPorta 8th (although garko or peralta could be dropped in a minute) and finish up with carroll (i’ll take him over valbuena for the time being if only for his defensive prowess: +12.3 UZR/150 at 2B and +27 UZR/150 at 3B, but with small sample sizes)
Hafner’s a swing and miss batter? This year is his lowest K% since he played a full season in 2004.
Steel Nick
in less than 200 PAs… he never k’ed less than about 21% in a healthy season… ZiPS (granted it’s not perfect) has Hafner regressing back (22.4%) closer to his career norm (23.9%)
by gorilla_baller on Jul 21, 2009 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure I follow. He never K’d less than 21% in a healthy season? It was ~18% between 2006 and 2007. And because he WASN’T healthy in 2008, we should pay more attention to that 23% rate?
Steel Nick
I guess we can just agree to disagree, I don’t think of a healthy Hafner as a guy up there flailing.
Steel Nick
the lowest k rate he ever posted was 21.1%… and that was in 2007… prior to that he was 24.2, 27.8, 23.0, 25.3, and 24.4… i just don’t see him sitting at the 17.9% he’s at right now… i’m not sure where you’re getting ~18% for 2006-07
by gorilla_baller on Jul 21, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
they’re using K/PA, FanGraphs is using K/AB
by gorilla_baller on Jul 21, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions
whether we’re talking about k/pa or k/ab i still don’t see hafner staying at the level of production he’s at right now… he’s still going to be an above average hitter but right now he’s got a lot of things going right for him… he’s making more contact than ever before and he’s hitting more flyballs, which is why he’s managed to hit 9 HR in 150 AB…
that all said, i think i may have overstated his swing and miss tendencies… still, in every full season he’s k-ed at least 100+ times…
by gorilla_baller on Jul 21, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
and his contact rates are wall above his career norms… i have trouble believing a 32 yr old DH who barely played last year and was slipping in ‘07 has made some huge change… i mean his contact % is 7% higher than his career(81.2% to 74.2%)… he happens to be making a lot of contact right now but there’s very little to suggest it’ll stay this high
by gorilla_baller on Jul 21, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions
don’t get me wrong… i love pronk, but his contract isn’t justified when he’s only playing half the team’s games… even when he’s playing as well as he is now
by gorilla_baller on Jul 21, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
understood, i was just trying to explain that i don’t hate pronk or anything
by gorilla_baller on Jul 21, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
you failed.
Not that there’s anything wrong with dislike Hafner or any other player. But still the comment was odd given the discussion
by world dictator on Jul 21, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
hate the idea of hafner in the two hole… if the reason choo is leading off is his ability to get on base, you’re effectively nullifying it by putting a swing and miss hitter behind him… i like choo at the top, but i’ll stick with asdrubal behind him, who’s contact ability is decent enough
I don’t support moving Hafner to the two spot, but I feel like this is the Adam Dunn debate all over again. All I have to say is OBP, OBP,OBP.
by world dictator on Jul 21, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
i understand the dunn argument and i understand why hafner is valuable because of his ability to get on base… i’m just saying he’s riding a couple inflated rates that haven’t stabilized and as a result his current production has ballooned
by gorilla_baller on Jul 22, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Hafner’s OBP this year is nearly identical to his career OBP percentage. If anything, his BB% is at a career low.
But regardless, the crux of your argument is based on the notion that “old players don’t make adjustments”. No offense but that’s kind of silly. Given the affect Hafner’s shoulder injury had(has) on his approach at the plate it makes sense Hafner might change his approach. When you look at his pre injury/post injury plate discipline numbers there’s a noticeable difference. Especially when you examine his contact numbers.
by world dictator on Jul 22, 2009 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions
One other thing, and I may be wrong, but contact rate just measures the number of times a player’s bat makes contact with the ball, not the number of times the batter collects a hit.. So for all you know, Hafner’s high contact rate might actually be a determent to his performance.
by world dictator on Jul 22, 2009 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions
my original point was that haf swings and misses… contact rate is entirely relevant to that argument
and i won’t disagree that old players can’t make adjustments, i just think you can’t jump to that conclusion after 150 ABs
by gorilla_baller on Jul 22, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
That doesn’t make any sense. Anyways why can’t you determine whether a player has made adjustments but you can determine if his production is based on ballooned statistics?
You have a strong confirmation bias going on in your conclusions.
by world dictator on Jul 22, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
haf has a whole career of striking out at an elevated rate and making contact at a particular rate… this year he’s striking out less and making way more contact… it’s WAY more likely he’s getting lucky in some respect rather than having made some change in his approach
by gorilla_baller on Jul 22, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Here’s an optimal lineup: one that doesn’t have Ben Francisco in it.
by odradek on Jul 21, 2009 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Rec.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Jul 21, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we should bat Grady third. And we should acquire a base-stealer so we have a real leadoff hitter. And I think we should put a platoon in the seventh spot.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 21, 2009 11:38 PM EDT reply actions
To quote Steven B. Sample,
The key is to break free, if only fleetingly, from the bonds of conventional thinking so as to bring your natural creativity and intellectual independence to the fore.
I was looking for Jay’s, but this is good too.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 22, 2009 7:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Constanza
Rodriguez
Weglarz
Santana
Mills
Head
Drennen
Rivero
Goedert
I'm not really into Song of Hiawatha.
Going against conventional wisdom (and a little NL type strategy) how about this:
Choo (high OBP-and can swipe 2nd)
Hafner (good pull-good alley power—could score Choo from first on double)
Sizemore (knack for the long ball and more recently ability to take a walk too infront of Vic
Victor
LaPorta
Garko
Peralta
Valbeuna
Cabrera (had been a high avg guy this year before getting injured)
I go with AstroCab last because of his speed in front of Choo and Hafner (the NL strategy part)
by MooneysRebellion on Jul 22, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions
You put Sizemore third and then want to claim the mantle of unconventional thinking?
Nice try.
Lineup optimization studies have shown that the #3 batter comes up to the plate with the bases empty and two outs more than any other spot. That is why you do NOT put your best all-around hitter there, contrary to conventional wisdom.
The whole problem with conventional theory — and you illustrate this beautifully with your post — is that it’s based entirely on imagining specific sequences of events, and those sequences represent a very small percentage of the REAL scenarios under which that spot in the lineup actually comes up.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Now hold on…if Sizemore bats leadoff, there is no one in front of him….and you’re saying batting third comes up to the plate with bases empty and two outs more than any other spot, so whats the difference?
Also, see Albert Pujols. So, batting him third makes no sense either since statistically most of the time no one will be on when he gets up? How then does he always have so many rbi’s?
Look, I wasn’t trying to get into a full blown argument/discussion. I was just throwing crap out here for what might or might not work. My main reason for Sizemore third is b/c I would never bat him fourth, and any farther down the lineup, he’d be pissed. Combine that with the fact that I started with Choo then Hafner, he’d have to go there. Vic is too slow for Grady to bat behind…so that’s where I stuck him.
Again, this was supposed to be semi unconventional. I’d never bat Hafner second.
by MooneysRebellion on Jul 22, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Did you read the post, or the article it linked to? You should bat your best hitters 2 and 4, then 1, 5 and 3. So why is Grady third if he’s definitely one of our best three hitters?
Jay didn’t say that nobody is ever on base when the third batter comes up. Of course that’s not true. And I don’t know why you’re bringing up Pujols because nobody said he should hit third. He does, but that may not be the best place for him. Pujols gets a lot of RBI because he’s the best hitter in baseball and takes advantage of the opportunities he gets. He may get more opportunities if he hit second or fourth. But managers have always put their best hitter third so that’s where he hits. That doesn’t mean it’s the right place for him to hit.
And Cabrera should not be last. You don’t put one of your better hitters at the bottom of the order where he gets the least number of at-bats.
by Buckeye Brad on Jul 22, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Pujols bats third because Conventional LaRussa Thinking says you bat your #1 power threat third (see McGwire, Mark). Doesn’t matter if it’s right or wrong, it’s LaRussian. In LaRussia, you bat the big bopper third and the pitcher eighth.
and Pujols leads the league in almost every idiot and non-idiot statistical category, so it really probably doesn’t matter
It definitely matters. The point of the #3 not being your best is that he comes up in low leverage situations. Don’t you want the best hitter alive to come up in big spots as often as possible?
One advantage to batting third instead of 4th is that over the course of a season, the 3rd batter will bat more often than the 4th batter. Another is that LaRussa might like the idea of Albert batting in the first inning always because it improves the odds they take an early lead. With a guy like him, I don’t think the difference between batting 3rd or 4th exists
In Soviet LaRussia, lineup optimizes you!
by Logodaedalus on Jul 22, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
I’m completely with you on Grady 2nd, just balancing early season performance with expected performance.
Everybody who wants Cabrera in the top 2 is nuts, though. I’m looking through stats trying to reach for a reason to project his OBP jumping much from the .352 he’s put up in over 900 major league PAs. By “The Book”, he’s much better suited around 6, with a solid OBP and some speed. Remember, the idea is to break conventional wisdom. Why on earth would he be 1st or 2nd aside from “That’s where I’d like to see him” or “That’s what makes sense to me”? I’m definitely more inclined to bat him 9th before I bat him 1st or 2nd.
LeCavs!
If you were good enough, maybe we'd name it after you.
Putting Cabrera first is in large part an acknowledgement that this team doesn’t have a lineup that neatly fits the assumptions inherent in the Book. Lineup optimization assumes that of your three best hitters, one of them is going to be a high OBP/low power guy. Problem is, if our three best hitters are Sizemore, Martinez and Choo, none of them are really low power guys. So you’re left with a dilemma – do you bat Choo first, and sacrifice some power, or do you bat Asdrubal first, and give up 30 points of OBP in the interest of turning some solo homers into multiple-run shots? If you’re going to do By The Book lineup optimization, you need to get a .400 OBP guy with little power.
Yeah, but Michal Brantley is hardly ready.
Choo’s slugging this year, .461, is a big drop from last year, but right in line with projections. Even if he bumps that up a bit, it’s far from a huge spread – we’re not giving up significant power in favor of the .400 OBP guy. Hell, Cabrera’s SLG is as far off (40ish points) from Choo’s as his OBP.
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