Game 97: Indians 9, Mariners 0
by APV on Jul 25, 2009 1:00 AM EDT
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PrintAaron Laffey is potentially one of our more important question marks looking ahead to the 2010 season. Can he be counted on to fill one of the spots in the rotation (possibly a Cliff Lee-less rotation)? Tonight was just Laffey's 7th start this season with Cleveland, in part owing to his diversion to the bullpen in May. Tonight's start, after a shaky first inning, was his best effort for the season (7 innings, 3 hits, 3 walks, 7 Ks, zero runs). Of the 6 baserunners he allowed, half of them were erased via groundball double-plays. Throw in his season high 7Ks, and 17 of the 21 outs he recorded came via groundball or strikeout. That is a legitimate and welcome positive. I think it is pretty clear the decision to trade or not-trade Cliff Lee will depend almost exclusively on what is offered up for him - but maybe a start like tonight from Laffey will lubricate the decision making parts of Mark Shapiro's brain a little bit.
The Indians took an early, 2nd inning lead thanks to a couple of hits (including a Ryan Garko double) and a Ben Francisco sac fly. The game remained close until the 7th, when the bottom part of Cleveland's lineup began to unravel the Mariners pitching staff. Jhonny Peralta started the inning with an innocent enough looking single (one of 3 in the game). But this was followed by a no-doubt blast from Travis Hafner, his 10th of the year and first since July 3rd. Two batters later, Ben Francisco also went yard, to raise the Indians lead to 4-0. Following a combined Joe Smith/Tony Sipp outing in the 8th, the Indians power barrage continued in the 9th. Ryan Garko followed up Peralta and Hafner singles with a 3-run blast. Jamey Carroll provided the cherry on top with his first shot of the year in the following at-bat. A few hits and a Grady Sizemore slide at the plate later, the Indians raised the lead to 9-0. A few looking Ks later, Chris Perez closed out the 9th to give the Indians a shutout of the Mariners.
There are many possibilities for what might happen over the next week, but tonight was a pretty good night. The Mariners are a decent team but one probably clinging pretty tightly to any hope of contending. Tonight's victory over Seattle might just be the inauguration of the Tribe's party-spoiling campaign.
| Highest | WPA | Lowest | WPA |
| A. Laffey | .434 | V. Martinez | -.048 |
| T. Hafner | .115 | A. Cabrera | -.068 |
| R. Garko | .074 | G. Sizemore | -.078 |
Next up: Sowers vs. Bedard, 4:10pm
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That is a legitimate and welcome positive.
Well said. I know that this doesn’t mean that Laffey will be a stud next year, or that trading/keeping Cliff is dumber/smarter because this shows we can contend with/without him, but it felt good to divorce myself from the gloom of the season, the non-stop debates about the trade market, and Jhonny and Gark’s rising trade values and just enjoy the darn game for one night.
Thank you, Aaron Laffey.
Call me master of the obvious, but this lineup:
G. Sizemore cf
A. Cabrera ss
S. Choo rf
V. Martinez c
J. Peralta 3b
T. Hafner d
R. Garko 1b
J. Carroll 2b
B. Francisco lf
Can be pretty potent sometimes. I have to think with Garko and BenFran replaced and LaPorta and more Pronk added, perhaps Brantley or Valbuena sprinkled in, we could be an offensive force to be reckoned with. Im ready for a respectable second half and ending the season with high hopes, whether deluded or not I may be.
Replacing Garko is not going to improve our offense.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe not, but it’s a step in the right direction when he’s replaced by THE DOOR.
by Wil Cantrell on Jul 25, 2009 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re assuming that LaPorta is going to play 1B.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Not necessarily — LaPorta could also replace Garko in left field — he’s that versatile.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jul 25, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe not this year, but a full season of someone good will produce a better offense than the Ryan Garko “four months of suck and a small hot streak” special
by FredOx on Jul 25, 2009 9:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
ENTIRELY INCORRECT!
I’ll put up the stat’s later, but the idea that Garko’s numbers are inflated by small hot streaks is untrue.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Garko is 21st in the MLB in OPS for a 1B with over 100 PA (even accounting for his current hot streak, I suspect he will finish somewhere lower than .820 if he finishes the season in the AL.) Add to this poor defense and slow footspeed, and yes, we are talking about a position that needs upgrading.
Ranking means nothing without the context of the total numbers ranked. For example out of AL 1B with at least 260 PA Garko is almost exactly in the middle (9th out of 1th) in wOBA. Out of ML 1B Garko is 19th out of 32). Which proves what I’ve been saying all along. Garko is the definition of an average 1B. In fact, depending on which stats you prefer, he’s better than a decent amount of starting 1B in the league.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, but it took a massive hot streak to get here. He is not average at 1B when you also factor in the complete look of defense and baserunning. Not to mention his awful 2008 season. Let’s see where he finishes this year
Garko’s wOBA:
2009- .359
Career- .351
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Also!
Where is this “hot streak” everyone is point out?
2009 OPS by month:
April: .803
May . 735
June: .867
July: .881
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
pointing*
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s raised his OPS by 50 points in the last 2 weeks. A couple of months ago it was .680. Much of the perception of Garko came from last year. For most of the year, he was a .700 OPS guy at best (completely unacceptable given his other “skill” set). He sat at .691 on September 12. Then he had 48 PA where he killed the ball and ended up at .750.
He’s had an OPS over .850 for the past two months! This isn’t some fluke 10 days hot streak. Saying that his production this year is inflated by a hot streak is flat out wrong.
He’s raised his OPS by 50 points in the last 2 weeks. A couple of months ago it was .680. Much of the perception of Garko came from last year. For most of the year, he was a .700 OPS guy at best (completely unacceptable given his other "skill" set). He sat at .691 on September 12. Then he had 48 PA where he killed the ball and ended up at .750.
I know where the perception is coming from. I’m saying its wrong.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
It wasn’t wrong last year. It may be wrong this year, I don’t know.
And an OPS of 800 isn’t good enough to make up for Ryan Garko’s deficiencies.
It wasn’t wrong last year. It may be wrong this year, I don’t know.
You’re capable of producing much better arguments fred, come on.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
As I recall, Jay went over this thoroughly either at the end of last season or during the offseason. Effectively Garko sucked, with the exception of a two-week spree.
Also, isn’t 19th out of 32 below average?
My point is similar to the one Chuck raised below. There’s a glass half empty bias being used here. When Garko’s down it’s normal Garko when Garko’s up it’s a fluke or a small hot streak.
Garko disappeared for most of last season. A lot of our offense did but still no excuse. However, nothing in Garko’s four year career indicates that 2008 was the norm. Which is the the part I take umbrage with.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
If you consider average to be exactly one spot within a range. Technically 51 out 100 is below average as well. But my point is that he’s middle of the pack and his production in terms of WAR converted in dollars consistently out matches his actual salary.
When you look at most of the 1B with a better bat, they’re all signed to expensive contracts or they were premium prospects. If we have either one of those, fine move him. But until then its silly to act like he’s a horrible player.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 25, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I gotta hand it to him, Garko has made himself into an asset worthy of a trade.
In the last couple months it became clear that we needed to build up more depth in our system, more overall talent. We knew that trades would be forthcoming, but it wasn’t clear what it’d take to extract the new talent we so badly need.
Do all our little trades, counting Derosa, Betancourt, Garko (?), Carroll (?), Peralta (?), coupled with the emerging returns of prior trades (Laporta, Santana) provide us with enough new talent to move this thing forward? If the can’t-miss-stud prospects are unavailable and the only thing we have to gain is quantity, what do we have to gain from the very big trade that we can’t accomplish from smaller ones that net one or more “upside” guys at a time. Shapiro’s managed to find core player types in big and small trades before.
This may very well be the best time to trade Cliff (probably isn’t the best time for Vic), but that doesn’t make it an absolute necessity. The key thing is having the talent around Cliff in the window we have left to keep him. I don’t think we’re all that far off from having a sound club again. If we suck again next year, the need for a full-scale rebuild will be obvious.
I gotta hand it to him, Garko has made himself into an asset worthy of a trade.
Funny way to put it. I see it more as, he’s made himself sellable to a team with even worse options and a weak grasp on valuation concepts.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
They used to soak up our mediocre first basemen like crack. At one point, I think they had Perez, Sexson, Broussard, and Hargrove, all at the same time.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Isn’t it the ending numbers that matter? I mean, everybody gets hot at some point in time during the year. How is Garko any different.
by MooneysRebellion on Jul 25, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Talking about an extreme. Garko got hot when the season was three months beyond being over, and this year isn’t much different. Those last two weeks, most of his XBH came against garbage pitchers, and he had good luck turning BIP into singles. This past week, he’s had a steady diet of lefty starters. I still give him credit for getting hot occasionally, but the fact remains that he’s capable of hitting like a Triple-A shortstop for literally months at a time. You can’t count on him to be even a decent hitter in any given month, and he sucks at everything else.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Look, I’m all for trading Garko…but a lot of avg role players’ numbers come against junk pitchers. Garko isn’t the greatest hitter in the world…but I think we might be overly critical by taking his hot streaks out of his overall numbers. We could do the same thing for any number of other players. Oh, and yes, his defense is enough of a liability for me to never play him.
by MooneysRebellion on Jul 25, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and players that get to play every day tend to hit better. Personal perception (don’t know the numbers) but when Garko doesn’t play everyday, his numbers are down.
by MooneysRebellion on Jul 25, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, his defense this year has been a bit above average at 1B, with a current UZR/150 there of 10.8 (meaning his 1B defense is expected to be worth 1 full win by itself over the course of the season). Granted, that’s much higher than it’s been in previous years, but he’s not far below average at first for his career (-4.4 UZR/150, or a little under half a win lost per full season). I have to stress at 1B, however, because in the outfield, as we all know, he is absolutely terrible. This year’s numbers may regress a bit over the rest of the season, but he actually has improved in each full season of his career, to the point where his defense may now be exactly what his offense is: distinctly average.
That slightly above-average rating at 1B is based on a very small sample.
Also, as with left fielders, you have to be careful how you view defensive metrics that rely on league average, because it’s not unusual for the league average defender at those positions to be borderline awful.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Right, I don’t think he’s anything more than average even at 1B, but he’s not the huge defensive liability he’s often made out to be. Two years ago, he was, but not as much anymore.
I think it’s fair to project that over the long haul, he will continue to be a defensive liability. He’s had all of 45 starts at first base this year, during which he’s played slightly better than his track record. There is every reason to believe this is just a very mild defensive hot streak rather than a durable improvement in skills.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
You say he’s on a hot streak, I say he was in a slump. Why don’t we use this same logic with Grady, who has a OPS+ of 94. Meanwhile Garko’s OPS+ is 113.
Tell me again, who’s dragging the offense down? The fourth best hitter on the team or the sixth?
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
The argument continues to be skewed comparing Garko amongst our other everyday players. Garko, perhaps unfortunately for him, plays a position where he needs to OPS at least .850 to be valuable. Comparing him to our CF or our SS is futile.
Not to mention the fact that everyone wants to harp on this current supposedly magical season for him where he has reached an OPS of .820, completely neglecting how bad he was last year. If this is the high point for Garko, which I suspect it is, then it’s time to move him.
How’s Garko’s 30-30 season coming along, Chuck? How about that Gold Glove and Silver Slugger?
Our offense isn’t particularly troubled. Moving Garko is about moving an expendable and highly replaceable player. That ain’t Sizemore.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Sadly only just checking the score, obviously missed a good one.
One day I'll get over to watch the Tribe play
by new zealand tribe fan on Jul 25, 2009 6:52 AM EDT reply actions
I need some Laffey in my life.
Also! This would be a good time for anyone that didn’t see it to notice this thread (definitely a must-see video link) and the subsequent “muscle” .gif. Very funny stuff. I’m glad Laffey left a different impression this time around.
Steel Nick
On a side note .. Brignac’s been pulled from today’s game in Durham in inning #2.
Seattle has cleared a 40-man spot.
Something brewing?
Looking at the actual rumored pieces so far beyond our speculation, this strikes me as a Tampa-Seattle straight up trade.
Tampa could use a catcher (Clement), Seattle needs a SS.
I could see the trade being something like Brignac and Kazmir for Clement, Morrow, Bedard?
I hope you’re wrong. The only evidence I have is Cameron:
Okay, so I’ll toss this out now
I’ve been hearing for a few days that the M’s were involved as a third team in a Cliff Lee to Tampa Bay deal. The Indians want more pitching than the Rays want to give up and don’t have a use for Brignac (because we already gave them an awesome LH hitting SS…), so the M’s would get Brignac and send additional pitching to the Rays.
What that looks like is up in the air. I’ve heard Morrow/Clement to Cleveland in a huge deal that also sends Victor Martinez to Tampa. I’ve heard that we’d absorb Kazmir’s contract too in order to make TB be able to fit Lee into their budget. I’ve heard smaller deals where it’s just Morrow.
Guess we’ll see.
I don’t know how close Cameron’s ear is to the ground.
Steel Nick
Yea, I just read this…..would this mean Cliff AND Victor to Tampa?
We would need to get I assume Wade Davis, Clement, Morrow, and more….
The smaller deal involving only Morrow to the Rays seems to make more sense to me
Fail:
Brignac’s expected back in Durham’s lineup tonight.
—R.J. Anderson. One would hope he means that Brignac’s name is listed in the lineup, but nothing further?
Steel Nick
Nick … where did you find that Cameron post?
I haven’t been able to find it on USS Mariner.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 25, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, it was on Lookout Landing. He popped into the “Brignac pulled” post on the front page.
Steel Nick
I just commented there.
I like Wade Davis and Brandon Morrow … but really am not sure what to make of the inclusion of Jeff Clement.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 25, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see it, unless Shoppach is expendable (obviously he is, but in this instance the team has a move in mind) and Clement is viewed as the next backup who will hold down the fort until Santana is ready.
And there are serious questions about Clement even being a catcher.
Steel Nick
Yup.
The guys over there seem to think Clement is passable … but I’ve never heard that.
I mean I suppose you could live with a year of Clement and Torregas behind the dish … but Clement isn’t really a guy I want if I’m giving up Lee and Martinez.
If he cannot catch … he enters the 1B/DH logjam.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 25, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
David Price got shelled. That might make them feel like they need a starter a little more.
Proud Fan of the Worst Baseball Team I've Ever Seen
Get this!
Word from Durham is Reid Brignac was pulled from the game for not hustling to first base
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 25, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It was an infield pop-up from what I can tell. Why would they pull him for that?
Still a possibility… F this time of year.
Steel Nick
Well, I guess it’s all in the context …
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 25, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh boy….just what I hope we acquire…another SS with a lack of hustle. I’m sure Wedge is just drooling in the clubhouse right now.
by MooneysRebellion on Jul 25, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t worry … the rumor with traction is that he would go to Seattle.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 25, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
As long as he can make the routine play and occasionally run into one, we’ll be OK.
Shin-Soo Choo, future U.S. Citizen.
yep, just what we’re all dying for, a major league player that makes the routine plays.
by MooneysRebellion on Jul 25, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Lineup for today:
Cabrera ss Francisco cf Choo lf Martinez ca Peralta 3b Hafner dh Garko 1b Gimenez rf Valbuena 2b Sowers, Sizemore day offUgh.
Redsox scouts at the game last night….possible trade in the very near future perhaps?
by MooneysRebellion on Jul 25, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s being punished for hitting a home run. That’s not the way he’s supposed to play the game.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 25, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
On the replay, Underwood just said today’s game is mlb.tv only. Does this mean that those of us in the viewing area can watch online for once?
Proud Fan of the Worst Baseball Team I've Ever Seen
Doubt it – I don’t think they make exceptions to the blackout rule for games that aren’t available on TV. There was some controversy about this last year or the year before, where teams didn’t provide television access at all in some areas of their markets, but you still couldn’t watch games in those areas on MLB.tv.
Actually, the game is nationally blacked out on MLB.tv, because of the Fox Saturday baseball rule (any game starting between 1:15 and 7 ET on a Saturday is nationally blacked out, regardless of whether Fox actually shows it). That’s why STO can’t show it.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: as far as broadcast “rules” go, this is the most obnoxious thing there ever was.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 25, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh:
SI_JonHeyman steve stone says tigers seek milton bradley. yeah, if cubs pay salary, and throw in psychiatrist to be named later.
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