Is Kelly really that bad?

by RasenFridge on Jul 27, 2009 9:57 AM EDT

I was going to write something on how Kelly's season hasn't been as bad as all that. After all, he's still got an obp of .330 which, considering his anaemic batting average, is pretty impressive and surely the rest is down to sample size or something....
Anyway, I was looking at the figures and trying to convince myself that maybe everything was going to be alright really and that next year he'll be giving Victor the chance to play 1B 2-3 days every week as we ride Lee and Martinez to the 2010 post-season and perhaps beyond and hang the consequences!
As someone who doesn't get to see actual ballgames the following could be complete codswallop or blindingly self-evident. If it's either I apologise in advance. However, what becomes apparent to me when looking at Shoppach's stats is the following:

Forecasting for hitters with less than a thousand plate appearances isn't easy. Pecota reckoned he'd be at .248/.324/.469 (ba/obp/slg) this season. His 10th percentile projection was down at .200/.272/.369. Somehow, with the exception of his obp he's managed to be even worse than that as .192/.330/.365
Maybe last year was the exception? This season isn't THAT different to Shoppach in 2006 and 2007. There's slightly less power than in '06 and .100+ points less than in '07, but without his 2008 season, this year doesn't look terribly different in the end. Thanks to the increase in walks his OPS in 2009 actually exceeds 2006 by nearly .100 points and is only just under 2007's .782.
Maybe there's an easy fix? In '06, '07 and '09 Shoppach has averaged nearly one ground-ball for every fly-ball hit (0.81, 0.91 and 0.91 respectively). In 2008 that dropped to 0.66 as he cracked 48 extra base hits with 21 homers. Is it possible he just needs to elevate the ball more when he's hitting? Like I said above, I don't get to see him hit so it might be that this wouldn't make a difference, but it seems like the one good year he's had was when he did hit the ball in the air more. Also, this might just be a natural result of him hitting the ball well in 2008 and not hitting it that well the rest of the time.
He really is walking a lot. Choo is the only other player on the roster who adds more than .100 points to his batting average for obp and Kelly even surpasses him. Now when you're batting .192 then it's not as impressive, but adding nearly .140 points to your obp from your batting average is pretty good going and it means he's still valuable in the lineup - although not the potent threat we grew used to having last year.

Without another season or two of playing time it's impossible to tell if Shoppach is done, or whether he's just having an off 200-odd trips to the plate and when you compare his travails to the bullpen or the Clifton-less part of the rotation they're not that important. But with Victor playing as many days as possible key to a productive offense going forward, is carrying Shoppach with his present production tenable next season?

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Comments

Kelly has been hit by a pitch almost as many times (15) as he’s actually taken ball four (20), which has a lot to do with the OBP.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions

Forgot to add (Also!):

Maybe more loft would help. If he could just have the same SLG he had in 2007 he’d have an OPS over .800 and and OPS+ over 100 and we’d be perfectly happy with him as a backup. Unfortunately, as you point out, he’s well off that kind of power.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

The thing that nags in my head is that you always hear how hitters’ best years are the age-27/28 seasons and Kelly’s best year was when he was 28…
I worry that’s it for him.
I really hope it’s not though.

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 27, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I do think we should give Kelly credit for the HBP’s since he has demonstrated year-to-year that he can get hit quite often

by Roger Dorn on Jul 27, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I wonder if he works on it in Spring Training?

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 27, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I hear they do a drill where Shoppach stands at the plate and the entire team throws balls at him. But unlike dodgeball the goal of the game is to get hit. Highly effective.

"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl

by world dictator on Jul 27, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

That may be but never at this pace. He’s been hit 15 times already in 200 trips to the plate. Last year it was 11 plunks in 400 PAs. In the minors his high was 12 and it came again in 400+ appearances. This year’s total is already more than half of his career HBPs.

There are a lot of ways you could look at it. A good 2008 has made him a little more fearless. A poor 2009 has made him, I don’t know, get closer to the plate? I certainly hope it’s not Door #3, that he’s desperate to get on base.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I certainly hope it’s not Door #3, that he’s desperate to get on base.

getting hit by balls would actually mean he got to third base, no?

by Brick. on Jul 27, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

i really do have nothing of substance to add to this site.

by Brick. on Jul 27, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

I feel the same way. At least you’ve added humor.

Ride on ye fearsome Horsemen of the Basketball Apocalypse. We got this.

by Turkmenbashi on Jul 27, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

I do add beardiness, though.

Ride on ye fearsome Horsemen of the Basketball Apocalypse. We got this.

by Turkmenbashi on Jul 27, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

This can never be understated.

Shin-Soo Choo, future U.S. Citizen.

by USSChoo on Jul 27, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s my best asset. Physically and mentally.

Ride on ye fearsome Horsemen of the Basketball Apocalypse. We got this.

by Turkmenbashi on Jul 27, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

The concept of a mental beard strikes me as both comic and yet terrifying!

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 27, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

http://images.google.com/images – “mental beard”

by Brick. on Jul 27, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

Rec.
Quite fabulous chap.

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 27, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep, chew on that for a while

Ride on ye fearsome Horsemen of the Basketball Apocalypse. We got this.

by Turkmenbashi on Jul 27, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

ZING

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

getting hit by balls would actually mean he got to third base, no?

Not if you have mad game

"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl

by world dictator on Jul 27, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I personally would not count that as getting to third base, but someone else might.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point chap. I almost mentioned that as I was wondering if this was an indication of a new-found desperation on Kelly’s part to get on base now his bat doesn’t seem to work!
And in a sample size like that it does make a huge difference.

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 27, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

So you’re saying he’s stepping into one?

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jul 27, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I almost didn’t get it.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I blew it. I should have said “So you’re saying he’s running into one.”

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jul 27, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

No it was funny. I just didn’t catch it right away.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

LOLZ. There.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I suspect that the only “easy fix” is to make him the regular catcher. I doubt that it is coincidence that his breakout season came when he was playing virtually every day.

"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin

by woodsmeister on Jul 27, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions

True enough. But you just wouldn’t dare at the minute, would you? Although playing Victor at 1B more regularly would leave Garko free to roam the outfield to terrifying effect!

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 27, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

After we trade Garko and/or Victor on Friday, Kelly gets his shot. He only has to hang on for a few more days.

"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin

by woodsmeister on Jul 27, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

True enough.
But will they then bring Santana up to keep Kelly in back-up hell?

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 27, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I can’t imagine that Santana would skip AAA. That would be highly unusual for a catching prospect. He might get a cup of coffee in September, but I suspect it will be mid-2010 at the earliest for Santana.

"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin

by woodsmeister on Jul 27, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

If the Tribe trades Martinez, there is zero chance they bring up Santana. Shoppach would start, and Gim would back him up. Garko becomes the emergency catcher, I guess.

by FredOx on Jul 27, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Don’t forget about Toregas – he’s knocking right on the door to the MLs, and he’s at LEAST equal to Shoppach defensively, if not a bit better (and no, that’s not hype – look up Toregas and his defensive stats, not to mention his average 1.8 second throw times to 2B, which is well above the ML-average of 2.0 seconds).

I agree that Santana may get a cup of coffee in September, but he’ll likely start 2010 at AAA Columbus; the earliest I see him up is July or August 2010, and it may not be until September, with him really starting in 2011.

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jul 27, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Could you point me to where I can find minor league defensive stats?

by Roger Dorn on Jul 27, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Here are the links for

Wyatt Toregas
and
Kelly Shoppach

from Baseball-Reference.com’s Minors section (scroll down for defensive stats). I hope that is helpful!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jul 28, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Is there some source from which you get those pop times, or do you sit at games with a stopwatch? I’m honestly curious, that wasn’t snark.

Also, 1.8 is actually below 2.0.

by Joel D on Jul 27, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Hello junkballer,

I’ve read on more than one occasion that he averages 1.8 seconds on his throws to second base; I think at least one source was Baseball America (you’d probably have to dig through their archives to find it, though – I think it was early 2008, if I had to put a timeframe on when they mentioned this).

“Also, 1.8 is actually below 2.0.”

Thanks for clarifying. :-) I actually got my “wires” crossed – I meant to say that throwing down to 2B is better (or “above”) the avg. ML-time of 2.0 seconds, but you’re certainly correct that 1.8 is “below” 2.0, and like in golf, the lower the better (or “above” – certainly the wrong word to use here) in this case.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jul 28, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t even think Santana will be up anytime early in 2010.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 27, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Yup, that was pretty dumb of me. There’s not point wasting the service time and risking his development.

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 27, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, one point would be that he’s not getting any younger. The controlling factor with Santana is his defensive development, as he’s only in his third season as a catcher — most of his peers have been playing the position for ten years or more.

That said, reports generally have been that he’s highly skilled behind the plate, and also a bit of a cocky bastard.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Then trade him. We have no place for cocky bastards anymore.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jul 27, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, we might actually have an opening …

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Sounds like Chuck is going to love him.

by Buckeye Brad on Jul 27, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know, Chuck seems partial to “scrappy” guys so far.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions

“Scrappy” white guys who can OPS above 850.

Resident LGT results-oriented boob.

by mauichuck on Jul 28, 2009 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions

And also Ryan Garko.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Jul 28, 2009 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

No, he’s not.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Jul 27, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

Hello Jay,

Shoppach is likely not THIS bad, though I always had concern about his strikeout totals in the Minors when we acquired him, which led to his lower BAs. He did walk a good number of times, which helps, but I’d wish he’d cut down on his swing with two strikes and focus on making solid contact to all fields, instead of pulling off the ball – he’s not even close to hitting some pitches (like not even “zip code close”).

In Shoppach’s defense though, he’s the one that made the Crisp trade worthwhile; unless Marte gets another opportunity and capitalizes on it (as in staying with us or netting something valuable in a trade), Shoppach is what saved the Crisp trade for us, since Mota flamed out and Marte didn’t live up close to the expectations we had for him (whether you want to say it was his fault, the Indians’ fault, or both, that’s up for debate, though I think both parties deserve some blame for Marte’s disappointing production).

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jul 27, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

You’re serving this up on a platter for someone who has more time than I do. Just FYI.

by Joel D on Jul 27, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ll just say, simply, no batting average references, please

by Roger Dorn on Jul 27, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

You do know that batting averages are part of OPS don’t you?

Resident LGT results-oriented boob.

by mauichuck on Jul 28, 2009 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes. I also know that Shoppach had a lower BA than Garko in 2008, but a way higher OPS. What does this say for BA?

by Roger Dorn on Jul 28, 2009 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Strikes out too much
Tries to pull everything
Batting average low

I think all we’re missing is scrappy.

by FredOx on Jul 28, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions

But aren’t catchers scrappy by definition?

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 28, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

I like the brevity chap.

I'm not from round 'ere...

by RasenFridge on Jul 28, 2009 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Getting back to qualitative matters, I noticed recently, and this was noticed by Tribe announcers, that Kelly is holding his fists lower in the batters box. He appears to be making better contact. Let’s hope this new approach bears fruit.

~ It's no fun throwing fastballs to guys who can't hit them. The real challenge is getting them out on stuff they can hit ~ Sam McDowell

by elsandito on Jul 28, 2009 7:09 PM EDT reply actions