Developing: Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco reportedly headed to Phillies

any day now, jordan brown will hit some weak singles for us…

Tony’s actually been pretty good at predicting roster moves this season. He got Rondon to AAA right and Marte to Cleveland correct.

And the other two sort of make me think either Shoppach or Victor is getting dealt (or Shoppach non-tendered), and Carroll is not getting resigned, obviously.

He’s young, but that doesn’t mean he can’t shoot through the system given his frame and 98 mph fastball

That’s great feedback. Thanks.

You’re exactly the guy we need to hear from right now. Thanks for the input.

I’d be very interested to see how that would develop.

A Peralta trade would be because of Marte, not Donald.

Perhaps that sealed the deal to get BOTH Carrasco and Knapp, along with Donald AND Marson – Francisco certainly tipped the scales to add one of those 4; whether it was the added second pitcher or the fact we got an extra premium position prospect, that’s probably what Francisco added to the deal, since all 4 prospects are either premium or very good (no throw-ins in this trade).

Ironically, while this deal may not have the “flair” or “big-names” of other deals, this deal may potentially provide the most value long term if all 4 develop. Let’s hope that happens!

When Victor is dealt, somebody has to catch. And Santana is not ready.

He really loves Peralta?

3 or 4 years seems like a worst case given that the man throws 98

18 year old w/ shoulder issues

I trust Shapiro’s medical staff, especially with pitchers. They have (or at least will have) vastly more information on this than we will. His “shoulder issues” aren’t what will keep me from liking the deal or not.

But the two position players should be able to help next year as well. Not big roles, but still be helpful. It’s as if they took less overall value to get closer-to-the-majors talent.

Carrasco? Eh.

I’m not sure I get this. We were never going to get Cliff Lee 2010 back in a trade for Cliff Lee 2009. We got a guy who is ready for the majors, has a career minor league K-rate of 21% and greater than 2:1 K:BB, who has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park and is still very young.

Yeah the rumors are only part of the source of our expectations. The CC and Colon deals are the most obvious comparisons to a Cliff Lee deal. The fact that Lee had another year was another huge factor. And the statements/general feeling of: if Shapiro isn’t totally blown away, he won’t trade Lee since we could have a Cy Young winner heading our rotation for 2010 as an alternative and still trade him if we need to NEXT July.

We/I expected the moon. I don’t think we were asking for too much.

I agree – I don’t think this makes us an automatically better team for 2010, but I think it keeps the window of competitiveness open, and potentially gives us more flexibility next year in terms of adding salary mid-season

Oakland’s 9th best staff in the AL doesn’t get me too excited. But I admit that it is better than our 14th ranked staff.

ESPN is probably (just a guess on my part) referring to the fact that Marson is closer to the Majors than Santana and will get the first shot.

As for being the long-term apparent, ESPN did not say that, and I’d have to think they didn’t forget about Santana (although who knows for sure). But I’m guessing ESPN meant it that way and not as a slight against Santana (again, just a guess on my part).

Isn’t a utility man usually a below average bat that plays multiple positions? Aside from this year it looks like he has a pretty decent bat. And his glove seems to be decent too.

You can’t know this yet.

You’ve missed the point. Whether or not you’re excited now means nothing. The point is that seven seasons after the Colon deal, we’re all satisfied. Check back in 2012, and we’ll see where this deal stands.

We didn’t anticipate Cliff Lee going from serviceable to AAA exile to Cy Young winner. We didn’t see Phillips blossoming elsewhere. And we didn’t anticipate Grady becoming a top-10 player. These four players will have a legit impact on this club, whether its their contributions or the web of players from deals involving our newly acquired haul.

Have patience. And if in five years, this thing looks bad, we can call it what it is. But there’s no way to tell who has been “screwed” just yet. And most likely, neither team got screwed.

No offense, but we can’t say we got “screwed” – that won’t be known for another 3-5 years.

Philly’s window is open now (with regards to Utley, Howard, Hamels, etc.), but what happens if they don’t win a WS in 2009 and 2010? What happens if they can’t reup Utley and Hamels, or if Hamels doesn’t get back to his consistent, dominant self (which has been lacking this year)? Does that change the perception of the trade from Philly’s standpoint? Just because they acquired Lee doesn’t guarantee they’l win the WS, and if they don’t the WS at least once in the next two seasons, then this trade takes on a whole different look for them if, by chance, their window closes (say, Utley leaves, Hamels either leaves or doesn’t show the same consistent form he did last year).

Essentially, it’s way too soon to say, “we got screwed.” You, and other Indians’ fans, are upset over the fact that we are pretty much giving up on 2010 (2009 was already over) in an attempt to rebuild for our first real shot in 2011. It’s unfortunate that markets like ours have to go through this, but that’s the way baseball works. Otherwise, we take our shot in 2010, get draft picks that might help in about 5 years, and potentially could be in a 5 to 10-year drought, since we weren’t going to keep Lee beyond 2010 anyway, and it’s debatable whether we’d be able to resign Victor (and I suspect the Indians would prefer to get as much for him as they can by Friday).

The economy sucks. Baseball is a business. Losing millions of dollars year in and year out is not feasible. You have limited funds to keep a player of Lee’s caliber in town, and even with him, your team is in the basement. So what do you do? You trade him for the best possible future players you can retain under control cheaply you can get, or you let him walk away and receive possible draft picks the following season.

We can argue the merits of the deal itself, but we cannot argue the methodology with which small market teams in a non-salary-cap business must operate in order to compete.

Someday the Tribe has to stop playing for tomorrow.

nope.

Someday the Tribe has to stop playing for tomorrow.

We weren’t playing for tommorrow the past three years. I know ‘08 and ’09 didn’t work out like we wanted, but you certainly can’t argue that we weren’t trying to compete.

By two years, I’m not sure if you mean 2009 and 2010 or 2010 and 2011.

2009 was already over regardless of whether we keep Lee and Martinez or not – it’s a lost year (in terms of contending) regardless.

2010 – yes, we give up on 2010 in all likelihood, but as I’ve said in other posts, what realistic chance did we truly have for 2010? Think about it – the rotation and bullpen will both have multiple question marks, the offense is still sorting itself out (Is Hafner totally healthy? Will Sizemore return to his previous form; can he cut down on the strikeouts? Can Peralta put together a full season like he did in 2005 and 2007, not the half-seasons of 2008 and 2009? Will Shoppach rebound and be more like 2008 or be more like 2009? Can Choo continue to progress and develop more consistency? What about Cabrera and Valbuena? Can Gimenez continue to show solid play as an all-around utility man. This doesn’t even take into account the young players who are likely to be arriving over the next season – LaPorta, Brown, Brantley, Toregas, maybe even Santana, Mills, Weglarz, etc.)

As you can see, there are a ton of question marks, and likely, a ton of inconsistency on the horizon – even with Lee and Martinez still here, and even if Sizemore, Hafner, and Peralta put up numbers closer to, at, or even above their career norms, there are just too many factors and variables to make the Indians think they’d be serious contenders in the division next year. You still don’t know about Carmona and Westbrook long term; you still have questions about Laffey, Huff, Sowers, and Lewis. You still are sorting out the bullpen – Jensen Lewis and Raffy Perez – are they future set-up men or were they one-year wonders? Is Joe Smith really a guy who can set up like he did with the Mets or was that just a young player who the batters didn’t know what to expect? How consistent can Chris Perez and Tony Sipp be? Heck, how consistent can Kerry Wood be?

This doesn’t even take into account what the White Sox and Tigers will do, as they seem to be in “buy now, win now” mode, while the Twins could potentially be better in 2010 (personally, I don’t think their pitching has been that great, outside of Slowey in the rotation – and they just lost him for 2009 – and Nathan, Guerrier, and maybe one other out of that bullpen). Their offense has still been mostly Mauer and Morneau, with Kubel being a third potential hitter for them. Still, they’ve gotten little from Cuddyer, Casilla has virtually disappeared, and Span has been on and off. Essentially, I think it’s amazing they’re in the hunt when their pitching has been less than expected; if their pitching is more like it was expected to be, they might be considerably better next year, and they’re still right around .500 this year, a good 8-10 games in front of us with all of our question marks.

This (referring to all of the above) is what I think essentially convinced the Indians they have to trade Lee and Martinez and get as much as they can in the hope to recharge and really be ready to compete in 2011 – 2010 was too much of a question mark to bank on going for it next year and missing out on too much if they miss the postseason again in 2010, and based on what’s happened in 2008 and 2009, when we had solid to reasonable chances to contend for the postseason, this is why Shapiro decided to pull the trigger on Lee and why he’ll likely pull the trigger on Martinez before Friday as well.

Shoppach

Blue-chipper, like Alex Escobar or Andy Marte?

we didn’t land a single blue-chipper for lee

any given season there are probably 5-10 guys in all of the minors that deserve this title…I don’t think not getting one of them means the deal is an automatic failure. Given the current major league environment getting a team to give up one of these guys might be pretty close to impossible any given season.

I’m curious to know whether you think Kyle Drabek is a blue-chipper and whether you would have liked the trade better if he had been included?

The reason I ask is because, Carrasco, at age 21, had a much more dominant K rate at AA than Drabek is doing there this season at age 21. It is true that Carrasco had spent half a season at AA at age 20 (14 games, 13 starts) the previous season, but with only half a season of AA under his belt, Carrasco went on to go back to AA to strike out 8.6/9 IP (compared to Drabek’s 6.5/9 IP at the same level and age). Additionally, Carrasco also made the jump from High-A to AA midseason in 2007 (at age 20), just as Drabek is doing this season (at age 21), and Carrasco actually gave up fewer H/IP (6.3) to Drabek’s at High-A (7.2) and virtually the same at AA (8.3 for Carrasco at age 20 and 8.2 for Drabek at age 21).

My main point is that, many seem to think that Drabek is a blue-chipper – I don’t know if you do or not. I know he gets most of the headlines from the Philly system, but personally, I think Carrasco is just as advanced, if not more so, than Drabek, and recall that Carrasco is the 2ND-BEST pitching prospect in the deal. Yes, Knapp has an injury history, certainly, but I haven’t heard where it is long term or career-threatening – he needs to be shut down for a bit, but I haven’t heard anything about surgery and such; but Knapp is considered the best pitching prospect in the deal and was supposedly the “key” to the deal; Carrasco is almost a bonus (perhaps Francisco’s inclusion sealed the deal to get both?)

Before Drabek was drafted (and he got considerable publicity because he is the son of former MLer Doug Drabek), Carrasco was getting virtually all of the headlines from the Philly system and was the blue chipper; I think the main reason he’s not looked upon as a blue chipper is because of Drabek’s advancement and name, not necessarily because Carrasco has fallen off of a cliff. Essentially, I still think Carrasco is a blue chipper; he’s just been overshadowed a bit by Drabek (both because of name and reputation). And, as mentioned, Carrasco is the 2nd-best pitching prospect in the deal – I think this deal certainly has a lot of potential and a lot of value, moreso than you are implying.

That’s certainly a possibility – hmm… thinking about it more, if one or both would go in the Victor deal, while getting a middle infielder might make some sense for Boston, I’m thinking getting a catcher would make even more sense. I don’t know how long Varitek is around, off-hand, but I know he’s in decline and I don’t recall a notable catching prospect in the upper-levels of their system for the long-term.

Therefore, Marson, might make as much or more sense for them. Even if they keep Victor long term (Ugh!), it’s not likely they’ll keep him behind the plate into his next contract. Perhaps Marson is the additional piece, not Donald, or perhaps it’s both?

New York who will pay him 26 million for one year due to the fact that he will be shipped off South Korea to fight communism. The yankees will try to get around that by proposing that Choo DH via satellite where balls strikes and hits are calculated through GPS.

What did we get for Hafner? :-)

thats not a rant, its a humorous hyperbolic hypothetical situation

+1 – agreed; as mentioned above, I think BOTH are blue chippers; Carrasco has just been overlooked/overshadowed/ignored because of Drabek (yes, he’s a solid pitching prospect in his own right, but you don’t think that people are keeping more track of him because he is the son of a former, solid MLer – Doug Drabek? That’s the main reason, in my opinion, that you don’t hear more about Carrasco – it’s not like Carrasco fell off of a cliff or anything).

I like that approach – more power gives more room and margin of error to work in the strike zone. The main point is that the power arms have to learn control – that is our mission and objective.

Plus, we have many control/groundball pitchers in our system – Westbrook and Laffey (Carmona is more hybrid of power and groundball, provided he throws his power sinker with confidence) at the ML level. You also have Berger and Young at High-A Kinston, both of whom have high GO ratios and limited velocity, so it’s not like we’ve given up that type of pitching totally. I think we’re just trying to “round out” our pitching arsenal to include more power arms, which we either haven’t drafted or haven’t been able to develop – arguably, it’s been a weak point in our system. We have several interesting and intriguing pitching arms in the system, but few outside of Rondon who profile as having dominant power arms, and as we know, they can work wonders at the ML level, and especially in the postseason.

Scouts don’t always catch every worthwhile prospect – I don’t recall too many raving about Carmona when he was coming in.

My main point is that just because the scouts don’t believe in a guy doesn’t mean he’s doomed to failure. There’s only one way to find out (two, actually – time and trial).

if only for a couple of days …..

No but they MIGHT go to the playoffs in 2015 with these guys. Can’t play for tomorrow forever. Lee was an ace (or close enough) to take us there with a little help.

ok…I laughed at this

from the Giants: I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance by switching to Garko…

If Vic is dealt, Shoppach would start and Marson/Giminez the back ups. Santana should be ready by 2011 .. so only needed for one season ..

I think Boston is interested in SS’s

Interesting, I was picturing one where we left the first names off.

Very true

I think a lot of people are being unnecessarily pessimistic of these prospects. Like I said somewhere else. Just because we didn’t get fair value for Lee doesn’t mean all of these prospects suck. They’re not blue chippers but it looks like we got four players that have a very good chance of being ML starters.

Did you take advantage of the # formatting and just paste “# Firstname Lastname” ten times?

I’ll have to think about this for tomorrow or over the weekend…

Guys in the mix:
Rondon
Carrasco
Barnes
Graham
De La Cruz
Gomez
Todd
House
Perez
Knapp
…

Probably some others I’m missing

this reminds me of the 8 different versions of pablo ozuna’s name.

It was. CG right after the ASB. Grady smashed into the wall, Droobs made that behind-the-back play.

Gomez

See, here’s the problem. With all that’s gone on this year, I have no idea- absolutely none- if that staff will be good, godawful, or somewhere in between.

At least mentally.

yeah I’m scratching my head with this one