Another non-Red Sox hater. Yes, there are now two of us.

I don’t hate the Red Sox

I’m sorry but I stopped reading your comment right there…

I imagine it’ll bring in three bodies. Buccholz is one of them. Maybe Bard, who is a reliever, not a starter. And a lower-level guy? As good as Colon was a pitcher, Victor is a better catcher. I think prospects are valued more now than they were before, but Victor would be costly.

The JP stuff is interesting to me. If they move JP, Vic and Cliff, they should be able to get an absolute haul. I could see them getting a veteran starter (Javy Vazquez), two B+/A- pitching guys in AA, and a B+ position prospect (think somebody like Chris Getz).

If they did that, I think there’s at least an outside chance they’d be better. Plus, they’d clear so much payroll (off the top of my head isn’t that…about 20 million dollars if you assumed they were going to grab the options)? They should be able to go get a serious starter for 10-15 a year and still shave payroll. Or, get a couple of bargain guys and a position player on the level of this past season’s signings of guys like Orlando Cabrera (or even Orlando Hudson).

And, I think Shap wouldn’t wait on the clocks if that was how he was building the team. I think you’ll see Shapiro trying everything to win in 2010, i.e. not starting whoever the 2010 version of David Huff is in AAA.

You’re absolutely right that no one pitcher can be an improvement over Lee. The one way I can conceive of trading him actually helping for next year is if we get other pieces back that can help out in the majors, improving the team enough to compensate for the hit to the rotation.

How are you even so certain Rondon will see AAA this season in any more than a cup of coffee?

How are you so certain Rondon won’t be called up for longer? Baseless questions go both ways. TL makes an educated guess that Rondon will be called up to start in AAA next week. But let’s be honest. None of us know how long Rondon will be called up, if he is called up. But you can’t assume the normal Shapiro rules apply.

 If there’s one thing this season has taught us its that the Front Office has re-evaluated a lot of their past tendencies. There’s immediately moving Alex White to the pen and the more relevant example of moving Rondon to the pen so he might help the major league team. If the FO was willing to call Rondon up this year, its not unquestionable that he’ll stay in AAA or play a major role in our rotation next year

Laffey just got knocked around last night, and Carmona doesn’t even start until tomorrow. There are only 4 weeks until the deadline—not that much time to evaluate what we have in any of the three. I’m confident that Laffey will be Laffey at some point, but the other two? 4 weeks won’t make that decision.

This doesn’t make any sense. Why is four weeks not enough time to evaluate Laffey and Carmona? Both pitchers have extensive major league experience. In fact, I would be astonished if either player were still in AAA in four weeks. Laffey is in Colombus to stretch out so he can return to the rotation and Carmona is boom or bust. If he’s not pitching well its easy to see if not in AAA then in Cleveland.

And Rondon? I’ll get to him next

And besides that, nothing—nothing—in past practice would make me believe the FO would open the season with a rookie. We won’t see them until their clocks roll over, so now you’re talking about 2/3 of the season. The bottom line is that even given a full comeback from Carmona, itself a substantial uncertainty, the 2010 rotation is not strong without Lee. And it’s shaky to begin with; subtracting any piece is dangerous, let alone the most important.

As i said above, the FO is clearly changing their MO. If they were willing to move Rondon up to the majors this year its not inconceivable that he could start in the rotation.

But even still, your argument is based on the false assumption that a rookie pitcher has to start in the rotation to play a significant role. While Shapiro might not start rookies in the rotation he’s consistently shown that he’s willing to call them up to pitch a significant amount of innings. Huff is one obvious example. Carmona, as a starter, is another.

It will make us weaker because Lee is one of the top 5 pitchers in the league. No one that will come back for Lee—not Neftali Feliz, not Carlos Carrasco—will ever be as certain to be as good as Lee is, let alone next season. It will improve the options for 2011-2015, no doubt, but don’t go acting like a rookie Feliz or Rondon is going to be better than Lee next year. It’s silly.

Cliff Lee is one of the top 5 pitchers this season and we still suck. Lee can;t carry the rotation/the Indians on his back next year. So if you think the 2010 rotation is shaky to begin with then that lends itself to trading victor and lee to improve it.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Victor and Lee and I’m not advocating we give them away, but I am saying there are arguments to be made that the team can be strengthened by trading Victor and Lee. And frankly, repeatedly saying Lee and V-mart are good doesn’t refute the argument.

Castro on Laffey’s last start

Aaron Laffey (strained right oblique) was roughed up for seven runs on 10 hits with two walks and three strikeouts in just four innings of work for Triple-A Columbus in his fourth Minor League rehab start Friday. Six of the runs came in the first inning. Laffey said he was throwing nothing but four-seam fastballs that inning in an attempt to get the pitch working for him, so he shrugged off the results. “I was going to throw that four-seamer until I got one in there,” he said. “If I gave up six hits or six runs, so be it. I was being stubborn and throwing it until I got it right.”

PD reported this morning that Rondon was promoted to AAA. They also reported that Laffey would start on Wednesday for the Indians.

Err, “ironically I’d rather trade Lee than Victor.”
All better.

We have a whole lot of viable 2010 starters off the active roster right now. Which sounds like an inherently dumb statement, but Laffey’s condition isn’t chronic, Tommy John surgery has a great track record … and Fausto.

If we get a solid, viable starter in a trade — whether it’s a Kershaw or a Vazquez — puts us back in the running, even without Lee.

You’re 100% right about the Catch 22 facing mid-market teams. And I do think that ticket sales are something we have to think about when trading away fan favorites. Maybe I’m naive, but I think most fans are going to be upset no matter what the front office does. And the only thing that will put buts back into seats is a winning team.

On the other hand, ownership has to look at this in the short term and long term. First, we’re going to lose Lee and probably Victor inevitably, so fan disrest will happen eventually. Second, if we’re going to lose them eventually, wouldn’t it be better to trade them in a move that will make us more competitive for the next five or so years?

I also forgot to mention that the millions we save in payroll might help cushion any decrease in ticket sales. I’m not sure how much but it certainly might help.

I think the diehard fans think of Victor first, but the rank-and-file ticket buyers are a lot more into Grady.

What you’re saying makes sense rationally, but at some point, a lot of the fun in baseball comes from, ya know, watching players you like. I’d be devastated if we traded Vic.