Early Weekend 6-pack (7/30/09)
by APV on Jul 30, 2009 5:50 PM EDT
in Analysis
252 comments
This week's early weekend 6-pack is going to be heavily focused on prospects - in part because we have so many new ones coming in, but also because I've started working on an end of July minor league system overview (hopefully out sometime this weekend). But as with Betancourt, Lee, Francisco and Garko have all been here long enough to get an early weekend salute.
1. The sleepy kitten has left the building
Lee had about as interesting, or perhaps unexpected, 7-year run in Cleveland as is possible. Coming in as the second big piece of the Colon deal, Clifton Phifer Lee achieved quite a bit of success early on in Cleveland. In his first two full seasons in the rotation, 2004 and 2005, Cliff went 32-13 with a 4.56 ERA. It was in part derived from luck (2004...) and at times he struggled with control and HR tendencies (52 in those two seasons), but Cliff showed three good major league pitches enough to be considered at times the perfect compliment to CC Sabathia in a young rotation. Ironically, the Indians big step forward in 2007 coincided with Lee's big step back. The homeruns (17 in just 97 innings) and control caught up to him and his ERA ballooned over 6 as he made just 16 starts with the big league club. He even got some work out of the bullpen in a hope that he would regain some usefullness for the club. But he didn't, and so as the Indians moved in the postseason, Cliff wasn't even part of the roster. Lee then found himself auditioning for the 5th starter role heading into 2008, eventually winning it more by default than performance. But something clicked as the regular season began. His pitches, all of them, were hitting their locations with zest, all of them. After giving up 17 HRs in less than 100 innings the previous season, he gave up just 12 in a career high 223 innings in 2008. He walked a league leading low 1.4 batters per 9 innings. Despite the disappointment of the season for the team, Cliff Lee's unarguable Cy Young (and back-to-back with CC for Cleveland) highlighted the season. And this season, without quite as much success, Lee has been doing much the same. To show what an unexpected turnaround Lee made in 2008, here are the numbers from his first 7 starts of the 2008 season.
6-0, 0.67 ERA, 53.2 IP, 32 H, 1 HR, 4 ER, 4 BB, 44 K, .412 OPS against
Memo to the Columbus to Cleveland shuttle bus - that is how you nail down your rotation spot.
2. Here's to you, Ryan Garko
Garko's career line in Cleveland (which in a very strange coincidence includes an identical number of minor league and major league ABs):
409 G, .282/.354/.449, 1411 AB, 398 H, 72 2B, 53 HR, 235 RBI, 180 R
Compared to his minor league career in the organization:
388 G, .293/.379/.488, 1411 AB, 414 H, 84 2B, 60 HR, 251 RBI, 216 R
And not to be forgotten, Garko was pretty good in the 2007 playoffs (.314/.385/.514). I tried to find that image of Garko shotgunning a beer from one of the 2007 playoff locker room celebrations, but failed. This is a nice picture of him, though (and several other no longer with us and possibly soon to be gone guys):
3. The Ben Francisco-Ryan Garko love-hate cycle goes on
High school teammates, college rivals (UCLA, Stanford). Cleveland teammates, NL rivals. Francisco is not a bad fourth outfielder candidate, especially for an NL team, and now he gets the opportunity to be just that. Unlike Garko, Francisco spent more time in the minors (.291/.357/.459, 611 games) than in the majors (.261/.332/.437, 234 games). Baseball...like the civil war, pitting brother against brother, but with better hot dogs.
4. About those prospects...
- Jason Knapp, age: 18.9, low-A (SAL)
- 2009: 2-7, 4.01 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 17 GS, 85.1 IP, 63 H, 3 HR, 39 BB, 111 K
- Carlos Carrasco, age: 22.3, AAA (IL)
- 2009: 6-9, 5.18 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 20 GS, 114.2 IP, 118 H, 14 HR, 38 BB, 112 K
- Jesse Todd, age: 23.2, AAA (PCL)
- 2009: 4-2, 2.20 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 41 G, 49 IP, 39 H, 3 HR, 13 BB, 59 K
- Connor Graham, age: 23.6, high-A (CAL)
- 2009: 7-4, 3.14 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 16 GS, 80.1 IP, 68 H, 41 BB, 87 K
- Scott Barnes, age: 21.9, high-A (CAL)
- 2009: 12-3, 2.85 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 18 GS, 98 IP, 82 H, 29 BB, 99 K
- Lou Marson, age: 23.1, AAA (IL)
- 2009: .294/.382/.370, 63 G, 13 2B, 1 HR, 30 BB (12.4%), 40 K (16.6%)
- Jason Donald, age: 24.9, AAA (IL)
- 2009: .236/.297/.332, 51 G, 15 2B, 1 HR, 14 BB (6.1%), 53 K (23.0%)
5. I'm just going to steal this list from Jay, who posted it in one of the threads
This is where all these players fit in (roughly) according to Kevin Goldstein's preseason rankings from Baseball Prospectus:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt LaPorta, LF
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
1.5 Justin Masterson, RHP*
2. Carlos Santana, C
Four-Star Prospects
3. Nick Weglarz, LF
3. Chris Perez, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Adam Miller, RHP
5. Beau Mills, 1B
5. Lou Marson, C
5. Jess Todd, RHP
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
6. Jason Donald, SS
7. David Huff, LHP
8. Connor Graham, RHP
8. Nick Hagadone, RHP
8. Trevor Crowe, OF
9. Carlos Rivero, SS
10. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS
10. Jason Knapp, RHP
10. Bryan Price, RHP
11. Michael Brantley, CF/1B
unranked
Scott Barnes, LHP
UPDATE: I added the players acquired for Victor into this list. Masterson was beyond rookie status and thus was not ranked by Goldstein as a prospect in the preseason. However, Goldstein also ranks each team's "Top 10 Talents 25 and Under," and Masterson is placed on that list in between Boston's #1 and #2 prospects, each of whom is rated a five-star prospect. Just think — Brantley no longer makes it into the Indians pre-season Top 20, based on who would eventually be with the team. [Jay]
6. Hmm....here are the new guys with their 2008 and 2009 season-to-date Progress Score (PS) and Net
| NAME | Jason Knapp | Carlos Carrasco | Jesse Todd | Connor Graham | Scott Barnes | Lou Marson | Jason Donald |
| 2008 PS | 4.54 | 6.63 | 1.39 | -0.16 | 8.30 | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| 2009 PS | 1.85 | 1.04 | 6.23 | -2.14 | 0.19 | 7.9 | 4.2 |
| 2008 NET | 20 | 39 | 34 | 14 | 45 | 18 | 5 |
| 2009 NET | 45 | 18 | 34 | 0 | 39 | 5 | -16 |
more to come...
0 recs |
252 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Today’s a crummy day for an off-day.
Columbus @ 7:05
Akron @ 7:05
Kinston @ 7:05
Mahoning Valley @ 7:05
Weird, Clippers are actually playing Leigh Valley. New dudes just walked across the building to the other clubhouse.
Donald just fielded a grounder off the bat of someone who was his teammate yesterday.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 30, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Marson walked, and Donald singled in their first PAs. Donald also committed an error in the first.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 30, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparently Donald’s single was of the infield variety.
He has also initiated a DP.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 30, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Ray is just roster filler right?
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m missing what this has to do with anything?
by Logodaedalus on Jul 30, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
(Maybe you didn’t intend for it to be related… just wondering)
by Logodaedalus on Jul 30, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Coincidence? Same thing happened to Cliff Lee – Harrisburg vs. Akron…
Stuart Dean
by stuart dean on Jul 30, 2009 8:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’ve started working on an end of July minor league system overview (hopefully out sometime this weekend).
nice one, I’m looking forward to it.
Marson behind the dish, Donald at SS for the Clippers tonight.
Hitting 8th and 9th respectively.
Toregas gets bumped to DH.
Also .. Brantley was apparently out with a sore shoulder suffered while diving for a ball … he’s in CF tonight.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 30, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
So… if a Victor deal were going to be announced today, we’d’ve heard something by now, right? If I turn off the computer for awhile, for my sanity’s sake, I probably won’t miss too much?
It likely won’t go down until sometime on Friday, possibly not until the deadline, and it being announced afterwards – of course, I thought Lee wouldn’t get traded until Friday, so take what I say with a “grain of salt” and miss the updates at your own risk. :-)
Seriously, though, if you miss some time being away from your computer, you can catch up quickly – I did with Lee after not keeping up-to-date with until late afternoon on Wednesday. It can be done. :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
"love-hate cycle"
Could you explain please? I’m a giants fan, so I’m curious to see what garko’s old team’s fans think of him.
VOTE SANDOVAL
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
That’s just shorthand for teammates-rivals-teammates-rivals.
There are many Garko fans among the Cleveland fanbase at large (i.e. those overly impressed with RBI). Many of us, however, think that he doesn’t hit well enough for what he is: a slow, defensively mediocre 1B. He will adequately do that which he is endowed by his creator to do; he just wasn’t equipped to do that which we wanted him to do.
This, and don’t play him in the OF.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 30, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, Freddy Sanchez for Alderson? What was Sabean thinking?!?!
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 30, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Keith Law mentioned that he thinks that the trade is fair … because there’s talk that Alderson’s stuff has regressed … I’ll search for the link.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 30, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Here it is (insider needed)
Key outtake:
In exchange, the Pirates get former first-round pick Tim Alderson, a right-hander whose stuff has slipped since the Giants took him out of Horizon High School in Scottsdale, Ariz. The 20-year-old Alderson, pitching in AA this year, has command and a feel for pitching but has lost some velocity on both his fastball and breaking ball this year. His fastball is at 87-90 mph, while he had been 90-92 or even 90-94 in the past, and his curve, once an above-average pitch with tight rotation, is slower and less tight in the mid- to upper-70s, but it still has good depth.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 30, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
He has been much more hittable this year – 10.7 H/9 IP, with 1.0 BB/9 IP (that’s impressive) and 6.5 K/9 IP (that’s solid for his age at AA, but hardly eye-popping).
Therefore, Alderson is FAR from a finished product – I suspect it’ll take another two years at least before he has even a real chance to establish himself in the Majors, as he’s not dominating AA by any means, so I would think he’d repeat the level, at least to start off, in 2010. He could move up to AAA by the second half if everything goes well, but if his stuff has regressed as Law is reporting, he may also have some challenges at AAA, so I’d suspect he really wouldn’t get a full shot in the Majors until sometime in 2011 at the earliest.
Also keep in mind that Sanchez was an All-Star and did win an NL batting title (however much weight you want to put on that, but he has demonstrated a consistent ability to hit for a high BA over the seasons), plus is considered a solid defensive 2B (not spectacular, I don’t think, but solid enough to stay there), so that’s probably why the Giants were willing to part with Alderson, whereas some were wondering why we couldn’t get Alderson for Garko.
Garko was never an All-Star, never won a batting title and never showed the consistency for BA that Sanchez did, plus was considered average at best at a lesser defensive position, so when you’re talking about Sanchez and Garko, you’re talking about “apples” and “oranges” – they aren’t really the same player, value-wise. Additionally, but isn’t Sanchez locked up for another year already, whereas Garko is not, or am I incorrect on that?
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I have no idea. Thankfully, I have already passed through the first few stages of suffering: denial, anger, depression (McCovey Chronicles has a helpful description of each stage). I’m currently in a mix between acceptance, denial, and depression, actually. As long as I ignore it, I’m okay.
VOTE SANDOVAL
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
What do you guys think of Sherrill to the Dodgers? Anybody here keeping better track of the rumors of what he was expected to fetch?
Good trade for the O’s. If we traded Lee to the Dodgers Bell would have surely been in the package
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
We’ve already got a lot of threads up today, and i don’t think a minor league thread would be particularly active tonight. I say post here and don’t worry about it.
So here’s a question. At this point we have to trade Vic right? If not by the deadline then during the off season. I know that we don’t have to trade him but our roster feels like its gone through a half finished overhaul.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
Santana’s status as our top positional prospect hasn’t exactly changed. There’s no reason to think he won’t start next year at AAA, and be open to a major league promotion anytime after mid-season.
It’d be selling pretty low on Shoppach though…. He’s making about $2M this year — what do you figure he’ll get in arb next year? I would guess not much more…
by Logodaedalus on Jul 30, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If Shoppach is dealt I’d think itd be during the off season so he can build up his trade value
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Between now and then?
Yeah, I suppose. I’m guessing they’d be willing to hang onto him into the season if they don’t get an offer that includes an interesting player or two — give him regular PT for a few months, and hopefully build his trade value further. I doubt they unload him for a lousy return just to unload him.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 30, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think anyone wants Shoppach right now.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
certainly not right now — I’m saying maybe next mid-season is more likely than this offseason….
by Logodaedalus on Jul 30, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I think our current roster construction makes an off season trade much more preferable.
Victor
Shoppach
Marson
Torregas
Santana
Gimenez
In the ideal world I think Vic and Shoppach are traded, Marson starts at C with Torregas backing him up. Santana in AAA. Not sure where that leaves Gimenez. Probably shuttling between Cleveland and Columbus as a super utility esque player?
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s the scenario I’m going with as well.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 30, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I think (and I realize this is a divisive proposition) that playing him every day would make him better trade bait.
Why is that a divisive proposition? I figured it was the default.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Regardless of your opinion about Shoppach, why would you care if he started the rest of the season?
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
And this is why I think Shapiro really wants to trade Victor before the deadline. There’s only a limited number of AB with Victor still on the team.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
the shorthand guess for 1st year eligible arbitration players is 40% of their actual free agent value. Last year fangraphs says he was worth ~$16M (!), ~$5M so far this year. Let’s say he gets somewhere around $3M next year. That’s still a lot more than a pre-arb guy like Giminez, Toregas, Marson or Santana. That’s also a lot of alternative options. I, and others, have made the argument before that last off-season was the time to trade Shoppach. That didn’t happen, I think, both because Cleveland wanted to have the best roster possible for 2009 and the market wasn’t going to give equal value back for him.
I would think the market is even less likely to give equal value for him this off season (though granted there aren’t likely to be so many catchers on the market)… If they think the return will be better mid-season, isn’t that worth $2M?
by Logodaedalus on Jul 30, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know how the team currently views all the catchers on the team – could go in a lot of different ways
Honestly, I think the objective for trading Shoppach is dumping him more than getting a good prospect. I don’t think the Indians are going to give him away for free but I’d bet they’d accept less than market value. At least right now. Of course a lot can change in the 2nd half of the season. Kelly wouldn’t be the only player who slumped during the first half of the season. And he still has a not horrible OBP
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 – as mentioned in my post below, I agree with this line of thinking; what you get in return will likely be a “bonus” – we couldn’t get what we wanted after Shoppach’s great 2008 season, and it’s likely his 2009 season won’t be close to his 2008 season even if he stays on fire throughout August and September (unless he really imitates Bonds or Pujols), so I doubt teams will be drooling to acquire him this offseason and give us a lot for him.
It’s likely whatever is appropriate and the Indians feel that that’s the best they will do in the current trade market, that’s when the Indians will likely trade him, regardless of how he is hitting or what his current trade value is – it likely won’t get much higher than what it currently is now, even if his hitting is more consistent from here on out.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I doubt we’d get much for Shoppach whether we hold onto him for an extra 2 months or not. Recall that we couldn’t get what we wanted for him after his great 2008 season; it’s doubtful teams will be drooling over him even if he has an outstanding August and September, so I’m not sure how Kelly does will really factor into whether we trade him now or later – it’s not likely we’ll get that much for him either way.
If an appropriate deal comes along, whenever/if that happens, we’ll likely move him at that point, regardless of how he does – we didn’t get what we wanted after he did well – our sights for what we want for him will have to be much lower regardless of how he does in August and September.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Agreed – Martinez/Shoppach/Gimenez/Toregas/Marson/Santana – that’s the line from the Majors through AAA through AA – that’s 6 guys, and outside of Santana, the others (being Gimenez/Toregas/Marson) are likely ready to play at the beginning of next year, so while Toregas/Marson (with Gimenez making an occasional appearance behind the plate and roaming the corner IF/OF on other days) would be very inexperienced, the Indians could go that route if they get appropriate/favorable deals for both Martinez and Shoppach (and it would cut costs for the Indians too, though Martinez would certainly cost much more than retaining Shoppach would, but it’s not out of the question that both might not be here in 2010).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Man Mills…what a setback year
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Well on the positive side his numbers are creeping back up. He has an .801 OPS in the last 28 days and .890 in the last two weeks.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Rivero has time to rebound and is young for AA (age 21) – I think several experts, including those at TCF, thought that Rivero might be in for a rough offensive year, and it appears that they are right, but the Indians’ confidence in keeping him at AA all of this season might pay off for him next year, and he’d still be young for AA and AAA.
Mills – yes, we expected him more from him, although he’s not THAT old for AA (age 22) – still, he’ll need to rebound strong at AA in early 2010 and get himself to AAA by the second (age 23) season – he could still factor in long term if he can rebound strong the rest of this season and into 2010.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Completely off-topic … but something I learned today.
After 8 years of major league service, players receive a gold card that entitles them and a guest to go to games for free for the rest of their lives.
That’s pretty awesome.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought so too … I had no idea they got something like that.
The things you learn reading the Baltimore Orioles mlb.com blog.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 30, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
APV,
I know you’re doing a minor league write up after the deadline, but I wanted to ask you a couple of questions.
Where would you rank the Indians system as of today? And can you tell us something about Marty Popham playing for Mahoning Valley? Kid has great numbers and so far today he has K’d 8 in 5 IP. Someone to keep an eye on?
I have a hard time imagining we aren’t a top 5 system. I can’t say anything about Popham other than that his numbers are good, but he’s old. I’m no scout and hopefully I don’t pretend to be one, so I don’t know what his stuff suggests. I wish the Indians would get him up to Lake County soon. The guys in short-season leagues I feel pretty incapable of evaluating what their numbers, because their is so much weird stuff that goes on in terms of who is in those leagues and their level of pro-experience.
yeah, he’s definately old for the league. I just wondered what his stuff was like, because it seems to me this might be a guy who could be on the fast track if put in the pen.
From what I’ve read at TCF recently (over the last few weeks), the Indians are high on Popham’s makeup and stuff. I also got the impression that he’ll remain a starter, though I could be wrong.
Personally, I would think he’ll get some starts at LC in the very near future; if he can do really well the end of this season there and the early part of next season (say the first month), he might be in Kinston by May or June of 2010, which would put him more in line (age 22) with expected age-to-league. I thought I may even read over at TCF that he could even start out at Kinston next season and skip Low-A entirely, but I may be wrong on that.
I do think he is a guy to keep an eye on, even though the NY-P League is not a good challenge for him, based on his dominating numbers there.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
What’s TCF?
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
TheClevelandFan.com – sorry for the confusion (where Lastoria and others write on the Indians/Browns/Cavs/Buckeyes, etc.)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Since this is just a throw away thread I figured I’d post this.
One of my biggest frustrations with this trade is the fact that the two position prospects didn’t fill positions of need. Even though the major league roster doesn’t have positions of need per se, I think we could have easily upgraded the quality of our corner infielders. Even another great outfield prospect would have been fine with me. But adding a SS/2B and a Catcher is just confusing
This isn’t a knock on Marson or Donald. In fact I actually like both players. But I’m eager to find out how they fit into our plans for the future. My biggest fear from this trade isn’t the prospects we acquired, its wasting the prospects we acquired. What happens to Marson after Santana is ready? Even if Marson has a poor 2010, is one year enough time for a prospect to establish himself?
What happens to the person who loses the 2B battle between Donald/Valbuena? Is there enough AB’s for the player who plays the “super utility” role? Is that the best use of young developing players?
And let’s not forget the giant logjam at catcher. I guess this means that Torregas and possibly Gimenez is SOL.
I don’t know, I’m just confused I guess.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
the two position prospects didn’t fill positions of need
I think this is true of Marson (as I have stated), but not of Donald. Prior to the Valbuena trade last year, middle infield was our biggest position of need. Adding a guy who can play both short and second and is ready for the major league level is a decidedly good thing and I think does fill a position of need.
I’d have to agree … the system still isn’t terribly deep up the middle …
I think the interesting choice was Marson over Brown or Taylor …
Could his mindset be that catcher is such a need for most teams, that it can’t hurt to be stockpiling guys in case of emergency?
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 30, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions
But the Rangers have Teagarden wasting away on the bench. Hence my concern
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Well that’s why I ask the question
1. Is there enough AB for Acab/Donald/Valbuena
2. Is the “super utility role” the best way to develop Valbuena and/or Donald
I don’t know the answer to either of these questions but its a cause of concern
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Keep in mind, under this arrangement, I also believe Valbuena could be backing up 3B too.
I would wager there’s a way to keep them all pretty involved … Cabrera, of course, is an everyday guy.
by FallsTribeFan on Jul 30, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Valbuena has played 3B, and I think it’s only a matter of time before Peralta becomes trade bait himself (probably not before tomorrow, but during the offseason or by this time in 2010, I could see where Peralta would be trade bait).
I think the Indians are hoping that Marte shows them enough this season to keep him around on the 25-man roster and use him at 3B long term – that way, this would open the door to trading Peralta (whose contract is up after 2011), who’s not the defensive 3B Marte is, plus this would also keep the Indians from having to rely on Hodges’ defense at 3B, which most reports suggest is pretty rough. However, if Marte doesn’t pan out, they always have Valbuena to man 3B – granted, he likely won’t hit for the HR power you want from a 3B, but as a stop-gap who hits a good number of 2Bs, he would do over there if Marte falters, as I think the Indians are looking a bit down the road at trading Peralta for more prospects and to free up more money.
Just my 2 cents on that.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Donald plays all the infield positions as well just in case everyone didn’t know
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see them trading Peralta, I believe Sharpo when he says this is not 2002, plus we do not have a major league ready replacement. Valbueba and Donald will be our 2nd baseman/utility player for next year. Lets give Peralta the rest of this year to see how he copes handling 3rd full time.
Fan in Texas
It’s possible, but still, I don’t see Peralta finishing out his contract here, especially if Marte does live up to his strong year at AAA. I don’t see Marte playing 1B full-time long term if he can stay up in Cleveland – it’s likely the Indians have every intention of moving him back to 3B if Marte is here for the long term (I think Jay said he’s under control for 4 more years if he stays on the 25-man roster, which is considerably longer than the team controls Peralta – through 2011).
If Marte falters and they prefer to only use two of Cabrera/Valbuena/Donald regularly, then I could perhaps see Peralta playing 3B through 2011 until, hopefully, Chisenhall is ready, but Peralta could be a nice trading chip, especially if he can show the consistency he did in 2005, in the second half of 2008, and his current hot streak now. Therefore, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Peralta sometime between the 2010 “pre-season” (Jan.-Mar. 2010) and the 2010 “offseason” (Nov.-Dec. 2010 going into 2011).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I believe Sharpo when he says this is not 2002, plus we do not have a major league ready replacement
I like “Sharpo.” It’s like the Marx Brothers GM.
The Peralta replacement is Marte. He’s shown something decent in Triple-A this year, and we’re not unloading all our ammo on the 2010 season, they’ve been explicit about that. What could possibly be the reason not to just go with the cheap-and-who-knows-maybe-serviceable player there? Especially if we’re keeping Donald around, we’re not going to run out of infielder options.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Maybe it explains why the Tribe was trying to swing multi-team deals before they finally settled on the Phillies. So, much like a draft .. instead of picking out of need, they just picked the best players available instead.
I think Jay and others have mentioned that most teams, including the Indians, will trade (and draft) mostly on value and not on positions of need – they figure they can address needs later via FA or other trades. Most teams figure you get as much value as you can from the pieces you trade, and presumably, the Indians felt they’d get the most value out of this trade (a C and MIF with 2 pitching prospects) rather than another trade (an OF with 2 pitching prospects – maybe you could get Donald or Taylor, but only one prospect along with the two pitching prospects, and the Indians felt more value came from having two quality position player prospects instead of just one position player prospect. Additionally, maybe the Phillies wouldn’t have included Knapp if Taylor or Brown was included, and the Indians were directly focused on acquiring pitching, and especially high-end pitching, which Knapp certainly qualifies as if he develops, which hopefully will be the case).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
As I noted late in last night’s radio program — not sure if this part got cut off, but if so, it’s on the podcast — one thing that has been underrated about the Lee deal is that while there’s no Top 10 prospect like Phillips or LaPorta in it, there’s also no real throw-in — all four guys are well ahead of a Rob Bryson or Zach Jackson in terms of value. In fact, I’d say we got the equivalent of something like four Brantleys.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Stephen Head starts the 7th inning rally! (setting up Marson and Donald for their requisite heroics)
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/TheClevelandFan/2009/07/31/Smoke-Signals
Diatriber, Castrovince and some guy named Jay Levin on at 9:30 tonight.
Diatriber, Castrovince and some guy namedJay LevinGeorge Clooney on at 9:30 tonight.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
What? The Indians offered Lee for Bucholz, straight-up, and the Red Sox said no and countered with Bucholz for Santana? Can that really be right?
That sounds dubious to me. If the Red Sox rejected a Lee-Bucholtz trade they are idiots…and they aren’t idiots.
If the Sox asked for Buchholz Santana they’re idiots too. Doesn’t hurt to ask of course but I wouldn’t make that trade.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Man, I am skeptical of Buccholz, and trading Santana would hurt pretty bad. I am pretty geared up for him as the C of the future.
trading Santana is simply unacceptable on all levels – he might be our greatest trade fleecing of all time
Yea, the sky is the limit. I went down to see him a few months ago with a buddy, and though I don’t have much of an eye for these things, he was one of the most impressive players I have seen.
Have to wonder if its the batting average. I’m not sure if you mean in the Cleveland area papers, but I seriously doubt most writers would look at his batting average and promote him as the next “big thing”.
I have to admit that the batting average gets me sometimes. But then I look into the numbers and realize he gets an insane amount of production out of his PAs, regardless of his BABIP.
No offense to most Cleveland writers (Pluto being an exception), but most of them don’t even focus on the Minors, and the ones that do likely don’t look at much outside of BA, HR, RBIs. They may see the HRs and RBIs, but the lower-than-ideal BA, especially since it’s not .330 like it was in the Cal League last year, will likely turn most Cleveland writers off and think that he’s not THAT good.
When/If Santana does start showing up on their radar screens, they’ll act surprised like he came out of “thin air” when more knowledgeable “experts” will have already known that Santana is a legitmate blue chipper in 2009, just like he was in 2008.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
What? The Indians offered Lee for Bucholz, straight-up, and the Red Sox said no and countered with Bucholz for Santana? Can that really be right?
I didn’t listen—I’ll get the podcast later—but I would asume just by reading this that someone misspoke and meant Martinez for Buchholz straight up.
Steel Nick
Nope. Lastoria repeated it on his site today.
by NickFantana on Jul 31, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
so Jason Donald has a -37 uzr/150 in 2008 ? What?
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
his 2007 numbers look a lot better…I’m not sure what to do with these minor league UZR numbers except to consider them one data point
Yeah i kind of get the feeling those numbers aren’t reliable
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know….that is a really low number. I just have this nagging feeling that defensive numbers can’t be considered in isolation from the players they are playing alongside.
I think I read at some point (maybe fangraphs or THT, I don’t know) about the sample sizes required for UZR being extremely large. As in, multiple seasons worth of data being required for it to accurately reflect the player’s defensive ability. I could be making this all up though, and I haven’t been able to find the article, so don’t quote me on this.
He seems more like the “swing guy” type, where he could start or relieve. He probably won’t be great at either, but could be serviceable to maybe even solid, and he’d be cheap, so it’s likely the Indians have taken notice, being that they’re trying to come up with as many solid players as possible that will be cheap into the foreseeable future.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
So do I – Edell does have better BB/9 IP than Slocum, has been nearly as good with the K/9 IP, plus is a lefty, so I’d say he has a slight advantage to be more useful than Slocum was.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
He’s a bit old, he turns 25 in October, but his periphs are pretty good. He gives up a lot of hits though, but he’s interesting.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, he is interesting and could be a depth option.
One slightly disturbing line from his performance tonight that caught my eye – 12/4 FO/GO (note, the 12 is the FOs, not the GOs). I don’t think he’s that extreme of a flyball pitcher, though I think he does get more flyballs than grounballs if I remember correctly, or it’s around 1/1, I think – he’s not an extreme (at least 1.5 to 1) groundball pitcher.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Command and control are still an issue – he can get away with that at AAA, but at the ML level, with no plus pitch, that likely will lead to some disastrous innings, as it has for him often up here in Cleveland.
It’s amazing that the 2007 Lewis just disappeared – reduced velocity on the fastball, I think his slider isn’t as sharp or tight – what the heck happened to him? I wonder if what Jay mentioned might be true – could he have been on some type of sustenance? (Please note – Jay did NOT come out and say that he was – he just offered that as a possible explanation, being that Lewis, Perez, and Carmona all have had reduced velocity in the past few seasons, a point I made in a thread about 1-2 weeks ago).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
It pretty much ended the careers of Baerga and Colon.
by junkballer on Jul 31, 2009 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The scary thing about Santana is that his numbers take a good jump if you account for luck and park factors
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
from Rosenthal and Morosi:
After Red Sox, who wants V. Martinez?
The trade interest in Victor Martinez beyond the Red Sox is unclear.
So, should the Indians be worried that the Sox instead might acquire Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez?
Such a move might cost the Indians their chance to get the best possible deal for Martinez, but a rival general manager says the Sox’s parallel negotiations for Gonzalez should not influence the Martinez discussions.
“They’ve had two months of trying to get a deal done,” the exec said of the two teams. “I think they’ve pretty well drawn their lines in the sand. Boston knows what it will take to get Victor.”
And Cleveland knows its price.
The Rays may have given up on the season or they’re on a really tight budget, because Victor would fit so well with team.
Personally, if I’m the Indians and am determined to trade Victor, and the Red Sox and Rays are both involved, I play them off of each other.
I drop “hints” that both teams are in the running – being that both are in the same division, both are in the playoff chase and behind the Yankees in the East (though both within striking distance), I try to play them off of each other and drive up the price.
The Red Sox, according to rumors and perhaps published reports, are either balking at including Buchholz or are balking at including anything other than Buchholz for 1.5 years of Martinez. Basically, I let them know in a runabout way that the Rays are “in the hunt” for Victor as well and see if that gets Epstein’s attention.
If Victor would be a FA at the end of 2009, I might just accept Buchholz, but for 1.5 years of Victor, it has to be more than Buchholz, who is still not a proven ML pitcher and who will turn 25-YO.
If I was asking for deals from each team, I would try for the following (may be unrealistic, but I’d want at least two of the three prospects I name for each team):
Boston:
RHP Clay Buchholz (has to be included, regardless, then add on).
RHP Michael Bowden
OF Josh Reddick OR LHP Hunter Jones (only reason I mention Jones is because perhaps we could use another serviceable lefty, and to be honest, I’m not really sure of another pitcher that Boston would be willing to give up that would be worth our while to get – I doubt they deal Delcarmen or Bard; maybe Masterson?)
Tampa Bay (I looked through their system a bit more and am considering these three – again, I’d need two out of the three if not all three):
RHP Wade Davis (has to be included, regardless, then add on).
RHP Jeremy Hellickson
RHP Alexander Colome (he’s further away, much like Knapp – actually, he’s only in SS, compared to Knapp at Low-A – but from what I can tell, he seems intriguing at just age 20 and is putting up great numbers; I can’t say about his stuff for sure, but I suspect it’s above-average at least, and could potentially get better).
Again, Buchholz or Davis has to be included, then at least one more. I might take Buchholz/Bowden from Boston and either Davis/Hellickson or Davis/Colome (I might prefer this one more than Davis/Hellickson, in fact – not sure) for Victor, though I would prefer three prospects, but that might be too high for Victor – not sure, but certainly two notable prospects have to be included – one, even Buchholz, will not do it for me.
Any thoughts and comments would be appreciated – thanks! :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I think the Red Sox are overvaluing Buchholz, and the Indians should try to get the best non-Buchholz package they can get. I’d be thrilled to get Masterson and Bowden, though I doubt that will happen. One of those two and one or two lower level, but high-potential guys might have to do it.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 31, 2009 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Personally, if I’m the Indians and am determined to trade Victor, and the Red Sox and Rays are both involved, I play them off of each other. I drop "hints" that both teams are in the running – being that both are in the same division, both are in the playoff chase and behind the Yankees in the East (though both within striking distance), I try to play them off of each other and drive up the price.
Seriously, Joe, do you not think that Shapiro is at this level of negotiating skill if not much higher? This is kindergarten stuff.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
He’s been a great disappointment, and he’s NOT young for High-A (23-YO). I think, at best, he might have turned into Matt Miller (though that’s not likely now, being that he’s struggling at High-A at age 23), but for a 5th-round pick, I’d want someone who has a higher ceiling and/or better stuff than a Jonathan Holt.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
http://ryangarko.mlblogs.com/archives/2007/10/that_just_happe.html
Here’s a good Garko memory.
The coolest thing about these celebrations is that this is the best team I’ve ever played on where all the guys like each other and have fun together. It might look like we’re out of control when we’re celebrating, but it’s all genuine. It’s just been a lot of fun playing with these guys.
Read elsewhere that the Indians were scouting Bowden tonight. He had great numbers in AA last year, but his K/9 this year is disappointing, although his WHIP is pretty good.
Anyone have a scouting report on him? Seems like if Vic goes to Boston, he would be involved.
Another interesting note on Bowden – he gets a LOT of flyballs – his GO/FO rate is like .5 or lower, I believe. I don’t know if he is a true power pitcher like Knapp or even Rondon; I’m not really sure.
As I mentioned above, for me to deal Victor to Boston, we have to get both Buchholz and Bowden, and preferably, a third (even if he’s a lesser prospect – not sure who that would be – Reddick/Jones/Masterson?) – after all, they’re getting 1.5 years of Victor, not just a 2-month rental.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Where did you read the Indians were scouting Bowden?
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 31, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I saw on sister site, draysbay.com, that some speculation to a Mets, Rays, Tribe 3-way with Victor involved… but seems relatively unsubstantiated.
It would make a lot of sense but its not happening. Picking up Kazmir would be a great investment on the Mets part. Obviously Vic would fit the Rays and both sides have interesting prospects to give us.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 30, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder who would come from the Mets’ side – from what I have heard, their farm system is not good, especially at the upper levels. I heard one scout say that outside of Niese and Martinez (not sure if it was Martinez – he may have already been up by the time this scout said this), Buffalo is not an interesting team to scout, and Binghamton isn’t much better either. While this doesn’t really matter with prospect evaluation, Buffalo and Binghamton have the poorest records in the International and Eastern Leagues, respectively.
The people of Buffalo probably miss the “old” Bisons (when they were our affiliate), even if they struggled the last few years – those teams were still arguably more interesting to watch and follow than who is on those teams now, though they do have Terrell Owens to keep them entertained. :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Yeah, because of the Mets’ injury problems, a good number of their top prospects had to be prematurely promoted to the majors. They already had a fairly weak farm system (although not among the worst – BA ranked them 17th at the beginning of the season) from dealing guys away in earlier trades, particularly, as you mentioned, at the top. And not only is their farm system mediocre at best, they apparently don’t want to trade their top prospects.
Because he needs a nap:
http://www.letsgotribe.com/2007/5/28/181457/059#3162270
(The phrase is a coinage by AngG that simply stuck.)
Jayson Stark is now reporting that the Red Sox are working on a three-team deal (although still looking for a third team somehow) that would send Victor to Boston, Buchholz to the Tribe, and prospects everywhere. He also says that the Indians are still talking to Tampa and are heavily scouting the Rays’ AAA team.
The prospects flying all over probably means Donald is gone if we make this deal.
[deleted, profanity]
Also!
if the Indians just acquired Marson to flip, I think they would’ve gotten Brown or Taylor, who they allegedly had the option of acquiring. Both of those players have more trade value than Marson because of position, hype,etc
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 31, 2009 5:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but they probably won’t want a rookie catcher with basically no major league experience or a struggle Shoppach.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 31, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Martinez will likely play 1B for them, I guess? Plus I suppose they wouldn’t mind getting a catching prospect for the post 2010 world.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 31, 2009 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions
There’s not enough information for us to figure out what prospects are involved. I get the feeling that they’re insignificant, unless they’re coming our way.
But if the third team is the Mets…which it should be….I bet they’d prefer Shoppach to Marson.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 31, 2009 5:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Me too. Gives me an image of minor leaguers falling from the skies on multiple cities.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 31, 2009 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Emotionally? I have no opinion.
Skill-level-ly?
Don’t know if I like him more than Wade Davis, but I like him more than both Phillies we got.
[deleted, profanity]
I know nothing about him really, beyond his numbers, but I’m coming to dislike him just because the Red Sox seem to think he’s worth the moon. If Tampa’s really interested, I would prefer Davis — if it has to be the Red Sox, then Bowden/Masterson.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 31, 2009 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not going to lie. This tweet woke me up sometime between 1 and 2 AM, and I have been in and out of sleep since and now I’m up. I realize that MLB executives are human beings (with the exception of Vampire Bavasi) and nothing is happening right now, but I had to see if anything was going on.
Steel Nick
I’m up, that’s what’s going on
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 31, 2009 5:33 AM EDT up reply actions
My goodness. The Nick’s diverge. GFP, Mario, how’d you guys sleep last night?
by NickFantana on Jul 31, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Went to bed around 6:30 a.m.
I propose giving Victor a 2012 World Series ring.
by Gradyforpresident on Jul 31, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
i honestly spend about 45 minutes last night trying to find a picture of Garko shotgunning beers, thinking I had it in me. I failed.
But this slideshow was nice to watch. sigh.
You are reading my signature.
I found some pretty cool pictures while searching. The last one warms and breaks my heart.
http://www.akron.com/20070927/images/barfield.jpg
http://wastingcotime.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/garko.jpg
http://www.akron.com/20070927/images/grady.jpg
http://www.akron.com/20070927/images/garko.jpg
http://blog.cleveland.com/pdextra/2007/10/sept2307a.jpg
Steel Nick
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Let's Go Tribe!
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Padres just scratch their heads as losing streak reaches 10
- The Juice: Marlins get off the deck, stun Braves in extras
- Papelbon's implosion, comment, make Red Sox want to scream
- Rangers fall after Young gets touchy feely with third base coach
- Tony La Russa vs. Colby Rasmus: Who ya throwing overboard?
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
