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Minor League Overview: The Hitters

Following up on yesterday's look at the pitchers, here is an overview of how the hitters in the Indians system have fared this year.  A few breakouts, a few disappointments, but mostly it has been a steady as she goes season so far...

Progress Score Leaders

  1. Carlos Santana: 10.6
  2. Michael Brantley: 8.8
  3. Nick Weglarz: 8.1
  4. Lou Marson: 7.7
  5. Andy Marte: 7.6
  6. Matt LaPorta: 7.4
  7. Lonnie Chisenhall: 6.9
  8. Carlos Rivero: 6.2
  9. Wyatt Toregas: 5.6
  10. John Drennen/Abner Abreu: 5.2

A few surprises, no?  First, Carlos Santana, as will become apparent throughout this overview, is in a class by himself.  He almost makes you wish we could have signed Casey Blake in the off-season just to trade him back to LA this year.  The surprises on this list are because of two things: progress score builds into it a substantial positional component (hence all the catchers, middle infielders and guys who can manage CF), and it works off of OPS adjusted for luck and park effects. Michael Brantley and Carlos Rivero, for example, have both been pretty unlucky on balls in play according to minorleaguesplits.com.  In Rivero's case, though, this seems to be a chronic condition and something which would be nice to see reversed at some point.  John Drennen has quietly had a solid season.  And Marson was clearly just a throw-in from Philly (Jason Donald's 2008 numbers would be good for a 6.3, also).

NET Leaders

  1. Michael Brantley: 54
  2. Carlos Santana: 44
  3. Nick Weglarz: 36
  4. Cord Phelps: 25
  5. Matt McBride: 23
  6. Jose Constanza: 21
  7. Andy Marte: 18
  8. Chris Arnal: 18
  9. Matt LaPorta: 16
  10. Jared Goedert: 14

NET puts a premium on control of the strike zone and speed, so seeing Brantley and Santana on the top of the list (again) shouldn't be surprising.  It is somewhat surprising, and a good thing, to see Marte and LaPorta on the list.   If we look at last year's numbers for our top prospects, it is striking how the guys NET likes have generally done quite well this season (Santana, Brantley, Wegz, Valbuena, Chisenhall, LaPorta), and the guys NET didn't like (Rivero, Hodges, Mills) have struggled.

Lots more...

Star-divide

OPS Leaders
  1. Andy Marte: 963
  2. Carlos Santana: 935
  3. Jordan Brown: 910
  4. Matt LaPorta: 901
  5. Matt McBride: 857
  6. Nick Weglarz: 855
  7. Abner Abreu: 839
  8. Lonnie Chisenhall: 835
  9. Jared Head: 809
  10. Nate Recknagel: 808

It is nice to see a few of our young guys who were placed somewhat aggressively by the organization, Abreu and Chisenhall, rise the occasion.  Compare this list with the adjusted OPS leaders (using minorleaguesplits.com algorithm for luck and park effects).

adjusted OPS Leaders

  1. Carlos Santana: 1039
  2. Andy Marte: 985
  3. Matt LaPorta: 955
  4. Nick Weglarz: 944
  5. Nate Recknagel: 939
  6. Jordan Brown: 881
  7. Lonnie Chisenhall: 880
  8. Matt McBride: 862
  9. Chris Gimenez: 839
  10. Adam Abraham: 821

The top of this list is pretty nice.  You might be wondering who Recknagel and Abraham are.  They are former teammates from the University of Michigan, both 2008 draftees, and both too old to get excited about while playing in Lake County (Abraham is being converted into a catcher, so he has some excuse, but Recknagel is a no defense all offense guy). 

OBP Leaders

  1. Trevor Crowe: 401
  2. Carlos Santana: 398
  3. Nick Weglarz: 389
  4. Lou Marson: 384
  5. Cord Phelps: 380
  6. Matt LaPorta: 378
  7. Jordan Brown: 377
  8. Jose Constanza: 370
  9. Andy Marte: 369
  10. Mickey Hall: 366

So this is what Trevor Crowe is supposed to do...To weed out the guys who are getting buy on high batting average, here are the walk-rate leaders.

BB/PA (%) Leaders

  1. Mickey Hall: 18.7
  2. Nick Weglarz: 17.4
  3. Cord Phelps: 16.4
  4. Carlos Santana: 16.4
  5. Tim Fedroff: 14.3
  6. Trevor Crowe: 14.3
  7. Karexon Sanchez: 13.2
  8. Matt Brown: 12.7
  9. Lou Marson: 12.7
  10. Jose Constanza/Lucas Montero: 11.4

This list has a bunch of guys who are probably old for their level and finding success at the top of the order.  It is nice to see 2008 draftees Phelps and Fedroff doing something well, though.  I was surprised to see Karexon Sanchez on this list, only because I think of him more as a massive strikeout guy (25.6%) than a plate discipline guy. 

K/PA (%) Leaders

  1. Bo Greenwell: 8.1
  2. Chris Arnal: 8.9
  3. Michael Brantley: 9.5
  4. Matt McBride: 11.3
  5. Niuman Romero: 11.8
  6. Jared Goedert: 11.9
  7. Carlos Rivero: 12.8
  8. Jose Constanza: 13.1
  9. Jordan Brown: 13.6
  10. Adam Abraham: 14.3

For Brantley, this is actually a major regression from his out of this world number last year (5.7%).  Of course, after getting off to a rough start this season Brantley's numbers have been slowly coming back.  In July he struck out in just 3.1% of his plate appearances (3 times in 97 trips to the plate).  And to complete the plate discipline section, the following guys all have more walks than strikeouts: Brantley (1.15 BB:K), Phelps (1.11), Greenwell (1.09), Santana (1.09), Weglarz (1.03) and Arnal (1.00).

SLG% Leaders

  1. Andy Marte: 593
  2. Carlos Santana: 537
  3. Jordan Brown: 532
  4. Matt LaPorta: 523
  5. Matt McBride: 508
  6. Abner Abreu: 488
  7. Lonnie Chisenhall: 487
  8. Nick Weglarz: 466
  9. Nate Recknagel: 466
  10. Jared Head: 444

And for those who prefer to removing the batting average component...

ISO (SLG-BA) Leaders

  1. Andy Marte: 266
  2. Carlos Santana: 257
  3. Matt LaPorta: 226
  4. Nick Weglarz: 223
  5. Lonnie Chisenhall: 210
  6. Matt McBride: 208
  7. Jordan Brown: 199
  8. Chris Gimenez: 199
  9. Nate Recknagel: 196
  10. Abner Abreu: 183

Andy Marte really wasn't fooling around in July (.487 ISO) and because of that, is at the top of these lists.  Lonnie Chisehall's appearance here is evidence of his very successful season at the plate so far and a good sign for a player of his age.  This list does make you wish the Indians drafted guys with power, though, doesn't it...And, because repeating this phrase brings a sense of calm to me: Carlos Santana.

HR Leaders

  1. Carlos Santana: 19
  2. Andy Marte: 18
  3. Lonnie Chisenhall: 16
  4. Nick Weglarz: 15
  5. Matt McBride: 14
  6. Nate Recknagel: 13
  7. Matt LaPorta: 13
  8. Jordan Brown: 12
  9. Beau Mills: 10
  10. Karexon Sanchez: 8

An old fashioned HR-leaderboard finally gives us a peak at Beau Mills and his disappointing 2009.  I really thought this was going to be a breakout year for him after consolidating some of his skills at the plate last year...not so much.  He has been slowly getting better month by month, but not nearly what was expected of him.  No positional player has had as rough a year as Mills, who probably would have a hard time cracking a top-15 list of Indians prospects were you to put one together today.

XBH Leaders

  1. Matt McBride: 47
  2. Andy Marte: 43
  3. Jordan Brown: 43
  4. Carlos Santana: 41
  5. Lonnie Chisenhall: 41
  6. Matt LaPorta: 36
  7. Nate Recknagel: 35
  8. Nick Weglarz: 34
  9. Beau Mills: 34
  10. John Drennen: 32

Chicks might dig the long balls, but doubles and triples are nice, too. 

Net SB Leaders

  1. Michael Brantley: 27
  2. Jose Constanza: 13
  3. Lucas Montero: 10
  4. Chris Arnal: 8
  5. Karexon Sanchez/Jason Donald: 7

This is SB-2*CS, to account for the detrimental effect of getting caught stealing.  I keep this to a top 5 (6) because while the Indians have a lot of guys who steal bases in the minors, most of them aren't doing a very good job of it.  Cord Phelps is fast (apparently), but actually manages a -10 because he gets caught so much.  Even Constanza and Montero get caught more than they should.  Michael Brantley seems to know what he is doing on the basepaths, though.

The Movers

Going up...

Lonnie Chisenhall has done a lot to quiet his skeptics.  The move off of SS lowers his positional value, and it will be nice if his improvements at third continue, but the emergence of his power this season is a great sign.  His secondary components have room for improvement, but neither his walk-rate or K-rate are in the red flag territory.

Andy Marte has given himself the chance at a second life with Cleveland (maybe).  He's been pretty solid all season, but his numbers are buoyed considerably by his torrid July.  It'll be interesting to see if major league pitchers still exploit him at the plate.

Abner Abreu was having a great full season debut until he separated his shoulder.  He has worrying plate discipline issues (one of the reasons it would have been nice to get him another 200 plate appearances this year), but he also has real power.

Michael Brantley has had a phantom good year.  The constant glowing reports from the Indians coaching staff about Brantley seemed to be counter to his somewhat pedestrian offensive numbers...but perhaps the Indians coaching staff knows something.  Brantley's numbers suggest he's been driving the ball hard, but right at people a lot of the time.

Carlos Santana is without any debate the Indians top prospect right now. 

Going down...

Beau Mills, as I said above, has not had a good season.  He isn't old, but given his defensive limitations, he really needs to hope for a big turnaround season next year (and now might be a good time to start).

We spent a fair amount of money to sign Tim Fedroff and so far, the return hasn't been great.  He's good at drawing walks, but for a guy with very little power he strikes out way too much (20.8%).

Looking more closely at his numbers, Carlos Rivero hasn't had as bad of a year as I thought.  His plate discipline numbers are still good, he's still playing at short, but he's developing a bad habit of under-performing his stats.  According to the minorleaguesplits.com numbers, Rivero has gotten unlucky every season of his career at the plate.  It makes me wonder if there isn't something systemic in the way Rivero puts balls in play that the site is adjusting incorrectly for.  Also, given his size, it'd be nice to see more power from him.

Final Thought

It is clear to see why the Indians have begun focusing on 2011.  It is possible that by then Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley and Nick Weglarz will all be regulars in Cleveland.  These are all potential impact guys.  Behind them are a few younger guys who are interesting, but also a lot of guys who represent decent organizational depth guys.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians lose a few guys in the Rule 5 over the next few years who stick and have some success elsewhere.

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Comments

Display:

McBride, even if he’s getting a little old, has also put together an improving season.

by MTF on Aug 1, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

I’d view McBride’s situation more favorably if he was doing better in Akron. His numbers this year are high largely because he used the Carolina League for batting practice for 6 weeks (.405/.453/.667). He continues to show good pop in Akron, but his overall numbers are mediocre at best (.252/.297/.458).

by APV on Aug 1, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

and he doesn’t have position.

by JP_Frost on Aug 1, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hate to even ask this … but isn’t McBride tracking similar to Garko?

Or is that just my eyes deceiving me?

by FallsTribeFan on Aug 1, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

maybe in terms of moving off several positions, but Garko was a superior hitter imo, which given their lack of defensive prowess, makes him a better prospect.

by JP_Frost on Aug 1, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’d agree. Garko was in Buffalo by the end of his first full year in the system (age 23), and spent all of his age-24 season in Buffalo with an .882 OPS. McBride is already 24 and scuffling in Akron.

by APV on Aug 1, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gotcha … I’ll confess I really haven’t sat down to look at them closely … just thought I’d ask the question.

by FallsTribeFan on Aug 1, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

He had a ridiculous game last night – 2 HR’s, 8 RBI’s (I know) etc. But, he has generally been mediocre in AA, for sure.

by peter m on Aug 1, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

So I’m retarded. I missed the entire conversation on NET and progress scores. Can someone link me to a primer?

Thanks

"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl

by world dictator on Aug 1, 2009 11:17 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I had the same problem yesterday. Thanks APV.

by malemodel on Aug 1, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

I did the same thing yesterday. My quote in your sig is affecting you.

Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?

by ClemsonGirl on Aug 1, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve noticed. If I start finding Grady attractive the sigs gotta go.

"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl

by world dictator on Aug 1, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Looking at Brantley’s overall minor league numbers, it seems he is someone that really benefits from a few extra months of learning and then can really catch on at the plate, as seen by a steady rise in production from year 1 in A to year 2 and likewise in AA. Hopefully we continue to see improvement at the plate moving to serious all around numbers out of the gate next year.

Shin-Soo Choo, future U.S. Citizen.

by USSChoo on Aug 1, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions  

I’m a huge Brantley fan, only because I think he more than other batters controls his outcomes at the plate.

I’m torn on his development, though. Is he a guy who, like Ichiro, should be putting the ball on the ground and, as a result, outrunning the defense to a high BABIP? He’s already putting the ball on the ground between 50-60% of the time, but he’s been unlucky on his BABIP.

Or is he a guy that should continue to learn to drive the ball and pick up a bit more slugging? I think the extra power is a more sustainable skill set—there’s only one Ichiro. If the Indians are trying to develop pitching, I welcome Brantley’s defense in left field and his unique skill set at the plate.

by xrickx on Aug 1, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good stuff. I am pretty excited about Santana.

And I like triples.

Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?

by ClemsonGirl on Aug 1, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions  

I’d be curious to see someone do a writeup on just how much of a problem the Rule 5 issue might be.

by still ill on Aug 1, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Giving away talent for free is never fun, but the Indians are going to be in that position this offseason after their prospect-collection binge these last two weeks. I’d expect the Indians to try and make some small deals between October and December.

I have a running list where Edell, Z. Jackson, A. Reyes, Tomlin, Rundles, Barfield, Brown,and McBride are either unprotected, traded, outrighted,or released. Edell could stick as a lefty with strikeout ability, and perhaps Tomlin can be the last guy in a bullpen too. If Brown is lost, so what? McBride would be attractive if he could still catch.

by xrickx on Aug 1, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think it would be a travesty if we lost any of those guys, but obviously it’d be better to get something in return for them

by APV on Aug 1, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yea, I’m just not sure those are the types of guys other teams want on their 40-man rosters in October or November. Certainly there’s much worse on rosters out there.

I guess you can package a few and try and do something (Jeromie Robertson? Scott Stewart?), but the Indians probably want to go the opposite direction and get non-40 man guys. The only guys of value that have been lost or traded in this roster crunch during Shapiro’s tenure are Maicer Izturis, Luke Scott, Ryan Church, and Willy Taveras.

None are stars. Some are useful pieces. But the Indians always had guys you’d rightfully keep ahead of them.

by xrickx on Aug 1, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thinking about the 40-man and the Rule 5 draft a bit…

The guys we might think about adding to the 40-man roster who are rule 5 eligible this year are (I think):
Weglarz (definitely)
Jason Donald (definitely)
Carlos Rivero (maybe)
Michael Brantley (definitely)
Jeanmar Gomez (I’d say definitely)
Kelvin De La Cruz (maybe…his injury makes it possible we can expose him)
Ryan Edell (unlikely)
Frank Herrmann (unlikely I would think)
Wes Hodges (depends on what they do with Marte – hard to see both Marte and Hodges on the roster)
Jose Constanza (no)
John Drennen (no)
Chuck Lofgren (no)

I believe our current roster sits at 39 if you count the guys on the 60-day DL (who would have to go on in the off-season). Guys currently on the roster who won’t be come the rule 5 include:
Tomo Ohka (definitely)
Zach Jackson (maybe)
Scott Lewis (maybe)
Carl Pavano (definitely)
Anthony Reyes (probably)
Rich Rundles (probably)
Jeremy Sowers (doubtful – I don’t see them cutting him lose yet, unless they trade him)
Jose Veras (probably)
Josh Barfield (probably – you don’t hold on to Barfield and risk losing Rivero)
Jamey Carroll (definitely)
Chris Gimenez (doubtful – he’s too useful to let go)
Andy Marte (possibly – again I think it is how they view Marte vs. Hodges…I’d go with Marte in a heartbeat)
Trevor Crowe (possibly, especially if we are adding possibly three OFers)

That’s 7 openings if you count the definitely and probably ones, plus an already vacant spot. That should allow us to get all the guys who really matter onto the roster without much pain, plus play around with a few spots for FA signings. So I don’t anticipate a 2009 rule 5 trauma. A guy like Herrmann or Constanza could go and stick somewhere, but I wouldn’t be heartbroken over that.

by APV on Aug 1, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Asked and Answered. Nice job!

Stuart Dean

by stuart dean on Aug 1, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d prefer to not lose Hodges and Lofgren, but we really probably don’t have space for them.
 
MARTE MUST STAY!

This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.

by westbrook on Aug 3, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure I understand the Lou Marson comment “and Marson was clearly just a throw in from Philly”. When he’s 4th in progress score?

by cheech99 on Aug 1, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions  

This is great. Thanks, Adam.

I think LGFT should henceforth stand for Let’s Go FUTURE Tribe.

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Aug 1, 2009 6:09 PM EDT reply actions  

But that’s what LGT is now.

by dgcambridge on Aug 2, 2009 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

This post is great work, very helpful. I am surprised to see Brantley so high, but great. This is Brantley:

- he certainly might be better than LaPorta.
- he’s not ready, and probably will need at least the first half of 2010 in Columbus.

by dgcambridge on Aug 2, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions  

– doubt it
– fine with me

This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.

by westbrook on Aug 3, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

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