Indians sign first-round draft pick Alex White
by Jay on Aug 18, 2009 12:12 AM EDT
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Baseball America's Jim Callis is reporting that the Indians have signed Alex White for a well-above slot $2.25 million signing bonus. More details as they trickle in ... there is a crush of news on a dozen different signings, including Strasburg reportedly signing a four-year major league deal for $16 million, so details on White may be hard to come by for a few more minutes.
Hoynes confirms the signing is for over $2 million, noting that slot for the #15 pick was $1.55 million. Of course, White was expected to go in the top seven or eight picks, and signability may have been an issue.
Indians with the official club tweet.
The Indians have now signed all 20 of their top 20 picks in the 2009 draft.
A few things were lost in various speculations about the Indians lowballing draft picks. First, they do not have a history of low-balling draft picks. They do have a history of passing on guys that they think aren't worth the money, but that is by no means the same thing. They also have a history of making lots of flier picks and often signing them; they don't seem to have done much if any of that this year, but they did a ton of it last year.
Second, the Indians have been very straightforward about how they approach signability. For each potential pick, they make their own internal, independent evaluation of how much of a bonus that amateur prospect is really worth to the club. Next, they talk to each player they think they might pick and get a sense of how much he expects to get. Finally, if a player wants more than the club thinks he's worth ... he drops off the Indians draft board. Simple. So regardless of slot, unless the Indians dramatically misunderstood Alex White's expectations, they were always going to sign him. If they weren't, they wouldn't have drafted him.
Feel free to open-thread the draft signings here.
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For the record, I’m saying the Nats did the right thing. Imagine his second contract though.
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
I think this might end disastorously. I read that they think he can help the rotation right now and will be up in September. My impression was not up, like sit in the bullpen up, but up like in the rotation up.
I have trouble believing this will end well if he goes right into a big league rotation.
I definitely wouldn’t put him in the rotation this year. Bullpen, fine, whatever.
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
The Nationals believe that Strasburg can make an immediate impact in their rotation, perhaps even joining the Major League roster in September.
And that’s from a nonsense publicity story on mlb.com, which I would think is playing it safe.
That’s just stupid. I guess it’ll sell tickets every 5 days, but it’s gonna still be hard for them to make that push into October.
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
And I live in DC!
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Aug 18, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree – Strasberg may be “advanced,” but not likely THAT advanced where he can help the rotation right now. This time next year, maybe, but now?! Let him get a few starts in the Minors (if possible – he may have been away from pitching for so long that he wouldn’t be ready to pitch by the time the Minor League season ends), then shut him down for 2009 and let him be ready to go full-bore in 2010.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
the nats are pretty bad… and with the major league deal if they put him in the minors it’ll burn up options… might as well give him a crack this year and if he sticks start him there next year
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
With the limited-time deal (4 years isn’t that long), does it really matter if they “burn up options” – I think there are 3 (or is it 4?) options for each player (could be wrong), even if they did burn up his options (and that’s provided he doesn’t last in the Major Leagues throughout his contract, which, if he’s anywhere near the hype he’s received, shouldn’t be in the Minors for that long), his current contract would just about be gone anyway, and at this point, it wouldn’t seem all that likely that he would resign with Washington in 4 years, so I wouldn’t think they’d worry about options.
I would think they would be more worried about making sure he is as ready for the MLs as quickly as possible, but throwing him right into the fire to get his feet wet might not be the best approach – it certainly is debatable, based on the track record of other notable pitching prospects (and not that many to my knowledge) that have been thrown into the fire straight out of college into the MLs – it’s two totally different worlds, even for a guy as highly-touted and highly-skilled like Strasberg.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
i can agree with that… at any rate, i’d expect to see him in washington this fall… his debut alone would be sell out RFK or whatever that stadium is called
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
JD Martin is listed as the Nationals #3. And hey, I liked JD Martin too, but Strasburg can’t be any worse, even with no minor league time and not pitching in awhile.
Most anonymous starting staff in the majors, by far:
Lannan, Stammen, Martin, Balester, Mock.
What percentage of serious baseball fans could give you even 2 of their first names?
You’re a better man than I. Then again, I think I’ve watched about 3 innings of NL baseball all year.
I’d have to imagine the entire Nationals pitching staff aside from MacDougal is available in my league, so I wouldn’t know them from that either.
Yeah but I would think just seeing them on the waiver every time you look helps. That used to increase my player name recognition a great deal when I played a little fantasy football
And I just picked up MacDougal last week.
by Buckeye Brad on Aug 18, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
“Lannan and Stammen” could be a decent marketing campaign though.
Lannan also happens to be pretty good.
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
Lannan and Stammen and pray for . . . famine?
by Buckeye Brad on Aug 18, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And, for the record, I don’t think “he can’t be any worse” is a good reason for putting Strasburg in the ML rotation.
I assume they signed a 2009 deal, though it could be a 2010 deal.
Amateurs who sign major league deals ending up getting four option years, but options aren’t expected to be an issue (famous last words, I guess). The bigger issue will be service time.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Not sure I follow: you’re saying that because it’s a 2009 major league deal they’d burn an option by not immediately bringing him to the majors?
I think so. Unless in some way they can simply not activate him yet, which is the same thing as giving him a 2010 deal.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
So, this is sort of a bizarro world equivalent of RAJAH IS IN THE BOOTH! HE IS IN THE BOOTH AT YANKEE STADIUM WITH GEORGE!
In other words, it’s as if the Nats just signed a ML free agent for use this season and 3 more, except with four option years?
I guess that’s self evident.
Since it’s a 4 year deal, if this is the first one, does it end after 2012? (looks at mlb.com, doesn’t see answer).
And, Strasburg is really an ugly dude.
Callisis reporting that it is in fact a 2009 deal that will pay him a pro-rated $400k for the remainder of the season. Other contract details for Strasburg and Ackley are there as well.
No, because he won’t be a free agent after the fourth year (2012). He’ll (presumably) be eligible for arbitration, although it will be inflated due to his prior salaries.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Right, obviously. If it was a 2010 deal, the arb would be pushed back a full year.
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
No, it really depends on how much time he gets in the majors, and only on that. To give the extreme …
2009 – in the majors, no option used
2010 – all in the minors, first option used
2011 – all in the minors, second option used
2012 – all in the minors, third option used
2013 – all in the minors, fourth option used, paid 3.8M based on max-cut rule, still only 0 years and 50 days service time at end of the season.
2014 – in the majors, no arbitration, paid 3M based on max-cut rule, ends with 1.050 service time.
2015 – in the majors, no arbitration, paid 2.4M based on max-cut rule, ends with 2.050 service time.
2016 – in the majors, no arbitration, paid 1.9M based on max-cut rule, ends with 3.050 service time.
2017 – arbitration!
2018 – arbitration!
2019 – arbitration! – and then free agent at the end of the year
So that’s an extreme and profoundly unlikely scenario, but you can see that it’s possible he doesn’t reach arbitration until 2017 and is under club control for about ten years.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I’m really trying to digest this post… there are a couple intricacies here that I either didn’t know or didn’t think much into.
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
The point is that there’s no way for Strasburg to reach free agency any sooner than the arbitration system dictates. The frontloaded money is the leverage of being a high draft pick and putting him on the 40 right away makes it likely he’ll reach abritation very quickly but there’s no way to move his clock forward. Washington still has total control over that and can manipulate it the same way teams do all the time.
The point is that there’s no way for Strasburg to reach free agency any sooner than the arbitration system dictates.
yeah, this part is obvious to me.
What I now need to ask is this: Does he get 16 mill between now and the end of the 2012 league year no matter what?
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
Ok, good, I hoped you would say that. Time to google “max cut rule”
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
Max cut rule is, I believe, dealing with the most you can remove from a guy’s salary in arbitration. In otherwords, you can’t drop his salary precipitously. If you want to do that, you’ve got to decline arbitration.
I seem to remember the most you can try to drop a player’s salary in arb is by 20%. Otherwise, you have to decline his arb.
Yes. And the likeliest scenario, I would guess, is that he spends a little time in the majors this year and next, and all of 2011 and 2012. That still has him not arbitration eligible for 2013, so he makes something like $3 million that year. Then they do the arbitration thing for 2014-16, then free agency.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
yeah, pretty sure I get this. Google brought up the interesting cases of Danys Baez and Preston Wilson but nothing as clear to understand at 1 AM as what you and Andrew have said. And I refuse to get a baseball 101 from Ed Wade.
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
ed wade is the bill nye of contract law
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions
you mean the one AFTER he’s been on the DL?
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I was going to make the same comment, as I was writing that. I’ve never seen them like anyone’s mechanics – unless he’s name Greg Maddux.
Also, here’s video of Strasburg’s 23K game. Really annoying how it jumps around, but I really don’t think all those K’s would be K’s against major league hitters.
http://www.gaslampball.com/2008/4/24/459900/steven-strasburg-23-k-vide
Yes, but it turns out that you don’t need 23 K in a game to be a good major league pitcher.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
i just remember how deep he played at 2nd base… he was like the 4th outfielder in slow-pitch SB
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
i figured as much, but the nomenclature was new to me
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Belliard plays 1B more often than he should.
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Aug 18, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
let’s not do this again… i say this in jest, but let’s not go down the driveline/o’leary path
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
maybe a week or so ago there was this semi-lengthy discussion about the problems with driveline’s methodology and the merit the do/don’t deserve… it’s been played out at a million different levels on a million different blogs
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
chris o’leary is another guy of the driveline mold… he has his own website and might have had a role in popularizing the inverted W and L and V and whatever else
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Every one of these guys is a crackpot. Inverted Ws? What happened to Mark Prior? Explain Ron Guidry. Again, if there were any scientific basis to this sort of bizarre speculation, wouldn’t there be fewer injuries and healthier deliveries?
oh i agree… it’s similar to going to a store to find the right produce… you can examine the husk, the shell, or the skin as much as you want, but it’s only a superficial observation… you never know EXACTLY what you get until you cut the fruit/veg open
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, I think the assertion is that it is extremely hard to change a pitcher’s mechanics to something more healthy. Hence, it’s easy to point out potential problems, because nearly every pitcher has them as a result of his natural development to that point.
Much more difficult would be to get to kids at a middle or high school level and change the way they throw while maintaining results.
the problem with that is that there are competing camps, all with different theories on what constitutes good or bad pitching mechanics
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
it is when the theories are backed up with any kind of data
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
i hear the jury is still out on science.
-Gob Bluth
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
in response to michael telling gob a dna test will prove that he’s the father of steve holt
STEVE HOLT!
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I just watched the George Michael Motherboy dance episode today.
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
i didn’t mean to ruin that for you… keep watching because the three seasons are amazing
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
and as new information comes to light some of the theories are discarded until finally one emerges as correct or better in some way… these guys are not pushing the envelope, they are not furthering the knowledge in the field
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I think we should make them all go do field tests by throwing thousands of pitches with bad mechanics themselves.
i’m working on my masters in biomechanics right now and all my experiences indicate that you just hit the nail on the head… it’s a lot of conjecture
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
i studied physics as an undergrad but right now it’s in our school’s school of health, physical education, and recreation
the school’s title sounds mundane like a bunch of gym teachers, so the engineers in our lab have a very entitled sense about us
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think there might be a bit of phys ed masquerading as science. But the more physicists and engineers the better.
there’s a lot of sport and clinical situations where biomechanics does a great job of explaining what’s going on… unfortunately, overarm throwing is surprisingly complicated and doesn’t lend itself to simple solutions, which is what the “internet-biomechanists” have reduced it to
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Mlb network will only talk about the nationals expansion draft pick.
by Brick. on Aug 18, 2009 12:16 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I’d rather give him every chance as a starter first; especially now that we have several interesting to even intriguing bullpen options that are much closer to the Majors than White, I think we can afford to let White get some innings as a starter first and see if perhaps he could be a #3 or higher – unless he becomes an elite closer, I would think that the Indians would give him every chance to be a starter first, since that would arguably be more valuable than a reliever outside of an elite closer.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I could be wrong, but I thought one of the reasons that we drafted him was that he looked like he could move into the ML bullpen pretty quickly. I’ll try to find a source on that though, because I could be completely misremembering.
even if that’s the case for june, we now have a pretty decent stockpile of arms from the trades… so like indiansfan said, there is no hurry to throw white into the pen
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
No, you’re correct, but at the time that was mentioned, we didn’t have the following:
C. Perez
Todd
Price
Graham
Nor the following pitchers who are currently projected to be starters:
Knapp
Hagadone
Carrasco
Barnes
Additionally, some of our reliever prospects have become more worthwhile and noteworthy since then:
Stiller
Wagner
Wright
Meyer
Herrmann
Pestano (until he got injured)
Judy
While White is advanced, he hasn’t been at or handled AA and AAA like these guys have, so there are several more-ready options who are either ready or closer to ready than White would be, even if you fast-tracked him.
Therefore, I would think that the Indians now have the luxury and the opportunity to explore what White’s potential is as a starter – if he even turns out to be a quality #3 starter, that’s arguably more valuable than any reliever outside of an elite closer, which White may or may not become.
While this is not the end-all, be-all, White’s college coach at UNC also believes that he could become a quality starter given time. While his college coach may not know MLB like the Indians do, conversely, White’s college coach knows more about White and his pitches and abilities than the Indians and their scouts currently do as well.
Therefore, I would think that the Indians can and should give him the chance to develop as a starter first; you can always turn him into a reliever either because they don’t feel he could make it as a starter (b/c of the lack of a 3rd pitch) or because the ML need is too great (and with all those other reliever prospects who will likely get first crack, not to mention the ones that are already on the ML team, there won’t even be much chance for White to pitch out of the bullpen right away, and it’s likely the others would get priority first, being that they’ve already pitched and handled to various extents levels higher than White’s current skill level, and have been longer than Alex would as well if he were fast-tracked).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
It would be great if he could be a quality starter for us, but we’re also aiming to win in what seems like a pretty narrow window a couple of years down the line. If he can contribute as a back end of the bullpen guy then, it may be more advantageous to turn him into a reliever rather than slow down his development and make him a starter who won’t really help the team until we’ve passed our chance to win. I guess it depends on whether they view him as a potential part of the next wave of prospects or not and how long they think that period of winning is going to last.
Getting back to the Nate Silver post I referenced a few days ago … what some folks are maybe not recognizing is that Alex White may not be much better in 2014 than he is in 2010 or 2011, based on his age. So if he’s a big league reliever in a year or two, that is probably the height of his value.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
So, the Indians essentially made another low-risk, low-upside 1st round pick?
I’m not saying that to be sarcastic. Well, maybe a little.
by ManchildinBeantown on Aug 18, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand your point, but the way I see the Indians’ timeline, if you will, is this:
2009-2010:
Rebuild, Reload, whatever you want to call it – call it the “sleeping volcano” that is just building up.
2011-2012:
With good fortune, the volcano will begin erupting. :-)
However, I don’t think the window is just 2011-2012 – granted, Sizemore and Hafner would be gone after this period in all likelihood, but LaPorta, Chisenhall, Santana, Weglarz, Mills (if he’s still here) would just be entering their primes and likely still be here for a few to several more years, at least through the mid-2010s. Add in pitching like Knapp, Hagadone, Price, White, etc.
That’s why I think the Indians’ window can be much longer than 2012 – I think until 2015-2016, so that’s why I’d give White every chance to be a starter first.
According to both Tony Lastoria (who was on STO’s Minor League Magazine) and Shapiro himself, White WILL start off as a starter and let his progress determine whether he remains in the rotation or he gets shifted to the bullpen.
According to Lastoria, White has the following:
- Fastball that reaches 96 MPH, probably more 93-94 MPH as a starter.
- A very good, if not plus, splitter.
- A very good slider.
He has 3 above-average (Tony first said “plus,” then changed it to “above-average”) pitches – that usually indicates that he will be tried out as a starter and given every chance to succeed in that role before being shifted to the bullpen.
And, as mentioned above, the Indians were attempting to still contend when they drafted White back in June – we still had Lee, Martinez, Betancourt, Garko, and even DeRosa (he was traded later in June), plus still had a shot at getting back in the race with the time that was left in the season. That has now changed, being that the rest of 2009, and presumably, 2010, we are not expected to contend (doesn’t mean we couldn’t surprise, but 2011-2012 is the time when we are expected to rebound and contend again), so White and the Indians have time to figure out if he can be a #3 starter or better, and long term, that would be more valuable than any reliever outside of an elite closer, and would be more ROI for a 1st-Rd. pick.
To address Jay’s point, the only way you’ll found out how much better White can get is by having him pitch, and for him to get more innings, he will be groomed as a starter to begin, then let his progress determine which role he fills long term, and personally, I like and agree with that approach. Hopefully, White will live up to that promise for the Indians no matter what role he fills (starter would be nice, but a dominant reliever, and especially closer, would work too).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Erik Stiller, turned 25 early in July, second consecutive year of putting up decent numbers in the Akron bullpen.
Neil Wagner, turned 25 new year’s day, first full season in the Akron bullpen, with good K numbers and bad control.
Steven Wright, will turn 25 in September, recently promoted to Columbus, mediocre K numbers, good ERA and HR numbers.
Matt Meyer, will turn 25 in January, earned his first promotion to Akron earlier this year, now has an ERA over 6 and as many walks as Ks.
Frank Herrmann, 25 as of May, successful transition to the Columbus pen with good control, bad K numbers.
Vinnie Pestano, 24.5 and injured in the Akron bullpen
Josh Judy, 23.5, good K and BB numbers in the Akron pen (and a guy I do like).
My point isn’t that none of these guys will make it to Cleveland. Chances are one or two of them will, and there is a slim chance they’ll become an important part of the bullpen. But I don’t think any of these guys are changing the decision-making direction of the team based on their performance. They are old guys having decently successful seasons in the AA bullpen, for the most part.
Hello APV,
I understand that these guys are not premium prospects, but they are on the radar screen, are closer to the Majors than White (and thereby, likely would get earlier cracks in Cleveland than White unless White absolutely speeds through the Minors faster than Road Runner or Speedy Gonzales would), and a few of them (especially Wagner, Wright, and Meyer) throw hard, and with the Indians’ recent change in philosophy of getting more power arms in the system, it’s likely these guys will get every chance to become a part of the future bullpen before they are dismissed.
Do I think they’ll all make it? Very likely not. Do I think one or two could in some role, perhaps even as set-up men? I think it’s possible, and likely will be fully explored before the idea is totally scrapped – that was my main point.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Your radar screen must be awfully crowded if those guys are on it. It’s like an air traffic controller, counting all the birds.
If White is a good prospect, those other guys won’t be “closer to the majors” for long. There’s plenty of guys age 28-35 in Triple-A — are all of those guys also “closer to the majors?”
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
You have seen radar screens covering all the planes in the sky – there are so many white dots on it, I bet it would rival the number of players throughout Minor League baseball (and I’m only talking about over the United States, never mind the rest of the world).
At any rate, none of those guys I mentioned are ages 28+ yet, so you’re talking about guys like Winston Abreu – Herrmann et al. aren’t there yet. And, as stated, those guys are “closer to the Majors” NOW – a year from now, who knows, but if White is a good prospect, he should quickly make up ground – I agree with that.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
No, actually, if they’re 25 and still not dominating Double-A as relievers, then I would argue that they are basically the same as guys who are 28 or 32. Not really prospects, just minor league flotsam that might “run into one” and go on a tear for a month or three at some point, but rather unlikely ever to spend more than a year or two in the majors.
This is my litmus test … Rafael Betancourt, 2003 edition … if, by 23 or 24, a guy isn’t dominating like that in the upper minors, then he’s not really a relief prospect worth paying attention to. On the other hand, if he is dominating like that, then it doesn’t really matter whether he’s 25 or 28 or 32, he’s going to get a look in the majors.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Maybe it has become old school but doesn’t it still make sense to make a prospect of this kind prove to you that he can’t start before moving him to the pen?
Stuart Dean
by stuart dean on Aug 18, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m honestly not sure it does. If the chance he can be a big league starter is minimal — as it is for most first-rounders, by the way — and if it’s 3-4 years away minimally — and you feel he can contribute as a reliever within a year or two — then I’m nto sure why you’d wait to “prove” anything. What you probably do, however, is start him off as a starter so he can log more innings in the first year or two, and if he suddenly looks exceptional, then you keep him there.
The big disconnect here is the idea that you can expect to get a great pitching prospect in the first round. That actually is not true, you can’t take that for granted at all.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I’d add that with the minor league pitch counts … and prospects being “paired” more often … he may not go much more than 3-4 innings in some “starts” anyways.
As you said, it’s all about how he uses his pitches, and whether he can develop a 3rd or 4th pitch.
If he can’t, they’ll bullpen and fast-track him.
by FallsTribeFan on Aug 18, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Had that thought about Hagadone. Shapiro saying Hagadone is “two years away if we decide to make him a starter” strikes me as Shapiro-speak for “Hagadone’s a reliever.”
by fleerdon on Aug 18, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know, he’s a true high-ceiling guy, and aren’t these the two years to be two years away for?
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I suspect, deep down, I’m still angling to make these trades about next year. They’re not, but that’s how I sold them to myself — “Hey, we really could be better next year!”
by fleerdon on Aug 18, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Which I think mainly shows your great aptitude for selling yourself on something.
This is why smart people are more likely to join cults.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Aug 18, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Is that you?
The once and future
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 18, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s more like, I think there’s going to be a lot to enjoy about the 2010 Indians — lots of guys I’m looking forward to seeing — and I conflate that with expecting them actually to win. Which are two separate concepts.
by fleerdon on Aug 18, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, granted, these distinctions all could be BS and certainly seem like it often enough.
I’m going somewhat on others’ judgments here, but it seems to me that Hagadone throws a little harder, is a lefty, and has one more true plus-pitch than White. And, in a sense, it’s almost an advantage that he’s already had the TJ done and recovered.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
As mentioned above, both Lastoria and Shapiro state that White will START his career as a starter and let his progress determine where he plays long term (starter or reliever). See my post above regarding White’s pitches (according to Lastoria) for more info.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Responding to the entire line of comments suggesting that we’ve acquired enough relief help that the pressure to make White a reliever has been … relieved: I disagree.
I count two relievers among our acquisitions who are good bets to help the bullpen in 2010: The two guys who are already in it, Todd and New Favorite Indian Perez. The rest of these guys are either starters for sure — Masterson, Carrasco — or they’re too far away for us to be certain (everyone else).
I have zero developmental concerns for White as a reliever. He’ll probably be on an innings count next season, based on his college career. And anyway, guys with the talent and durability to start always seem to end up as starters eventually. But if he really could help the big league club as a reliever next year, I’m all for it.
Also, Joe: I do not believe Frank Herrmann will be a significant obstacle to Alex White’s career. You would have to convince me otherwise.
by fleerdon on Aug 18, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I just think this whole line of thinking doesn’t make sense anyway. We don’t make low-minors developmental decisions based on present-day perception of need. Alex White will be a reliever if the Indians think he should be, regardless of other players. It’s only in an extreme situation on the big-league club — as we saw this year — that the Indians even dabble in this kind of need-based fiddling. For a similar situation, Garko didn’t become a first baseman until he was already a good hitter in Triple-A, looking up at an All-Star catcher and a young, cheap, high-quality backup.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
That does not explain the myopic Rondon experiment…
Stuart Dean
by stuart dean on Aug 18, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, it does … that was the extreme situation on the big league club, prompting some very rare dabbling. They badly needed a reliever and thought Rondon might — just might — be able to contribute that way within a few weeks. The point is that they won’t dabble with White at a point when they don’t expect to use him for a year or two.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I’m reacting a little to this idea that we’ll have failed if White ends up as a useful reliever. I could elaborate on that, but instead … Glen Perkins, woooooooo!
by fleerdon on Aug 18, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Jay,
Most reports indicated when we drafted White that we had every intention of “fast-tracking” him through the system so that he could help the ML bullpen in the near future (if not 2009, which was probably unrealistic, but certainly some time in the 2010 season).
I’m not saying that the Indians strictly took White for that exact reason, but it likely did play a factor in their selecting him as an additional bonus, since they were expecting to contend even in 2009 when they selected White in early June. As has been noted, many things have changed in the last two months, which is all the more reason why the Indians don’t plan to “fast-track” him like they had when they first drafted him.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
fleerdon,
There are 6-7 spots in the bullpen – it’s quite possible both Herrmann and White could be in the bullpen, so one pitcher blocking another pitcher, especially when there are 6-7 spots potentially available, is unlikely in ANY situation, not just Herrmann-White.
Do I think White is a better prospect than Herrmann? Certainly. Do I think White is more advanced than Herrmann? Not at this point – that advantage goes to Herrmann. Do I think Herrmann gets to the Majors first and gets first crack? The trend would lean more in that direction – Herrmann has already logged decent to solid numbers at AAA; even if White was going to be fast-tracked (and it sounds like he won’t be now, not at the same “speed” as before, at least), he still might not catch up to Herrmann before Herrmann reaches the Bigs (Herrmann could even get a cup of coffee this September).
Therefore, all I’m saying is that there are several guys ahead of White on the “totem pole”; certainly, White has a higher ceiling and ability than virtually all of them, but that doesn’t mean that White is going to get first crack just based on his college stats and ceiling; the other guys are already knocking on the door to the Majors, so that gives the Indians more time to groom White as a starter to see if he can flourish in that role and provide even more ROI on their 1st-Rd. draft pick than being a reliever.
That was my main point, not that Herrmann is going to block White – that very likely will NOT be the case – we both agree on that. :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Can anybody explain to me the push to make Bryan Price a reliever? Graham’s got some mechanical issues that might not get fixed, that I understand, but Price? Bryan Price is a better starting prospect than Alex White right now.
by fleerdon on Aug 18, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you on this – I don’t understand why the rush to make Price a reliever; he seems to be pretty solid as a starter – is it the possible increase in velocity by turning him into a reliever or does he only have one other pitch (I think he has two, though he may need to further refine that 3rd pitch, and maybe the 2nd pitch as well).
Again, with all of the additions we’ve added to the system over the last few months, the depth guys we have in AA and AAA, plus the promising guys we have at the ML level, I don’t think we need to “fast-track” anyone at this point, not to mention the fact that we are targeting 2011-2012, a full 1.5 years away – let them progress at their own pace and make them as valuable and as useful as possible (starters if at all possible until they prove otherwise, not because we need to “fast-track” them to become relievers).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
+2 – I kept checking their draft blog all day, waiting to hear if the Indians succeeded in signing White; I didn’t have any problem until now, but fortunately Jay and LGT came through with the confirmation here (and I could access it now) – thanks Jay! :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Good to hear that we signed him – I was almost thinking he was going to slip through our fingers.
By the way, Jay, this is a little late, but being that I’ve been busy of late and not around, I just wanted to say that you did a great job with the “Farewell to Victor” piece – very well done!
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
You can see the Jim Callis update on the BA twitter. For whatever reason they haven’t used the right hashtags which, frankly, is idiotic:
So, they’re bringing old school sensibility to twitter, making their updates a relatively unproductive part of the community?
I think they’re missing out; they’re breaking a lot of big stories. Guys like Jonathan Mayo and Heyman are getting a lot of traffic driven towards their sites with their updates and also establishing brand. BA would have a larger share of the real news updates then either of those guys if they would just tag it.
2018?!
I’d take 2018, but how about 2012, 2013, and all the ones in-between too. :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
We’ll be taking 2013 and 2014 off while we deal with Quetzalcoatl.
by odradek on Aug 18, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Shudders. I know a guy who got married a couple of years ago because he wanted to start a family prior to this.
i’m pretty sure he means that 2012 mayan end of the world crap
by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
How can you be on the internet and not hear about the 2012 stuff? It’s been a meme for quite some time now.
Roland Emmerich’s got it covered. Again.
"You just gotta roll with the ounches." - Clemson58YearOldMan
I only found out about this when I google image searched “2012” when we acquired these guys.
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
I think Jay hit it on the head earlier: Show me a changeup, show me a cutter, show me some other pitch and you can start; otherwise, focus on blowing heat by suckas at the backed of MLB’s best bullpen from late 2010 to 2016 and beyond.
doesn’t he throw a splitter which he uses as a changeup?
The stuff they say in White’s scouting reports reminds me a little bit of Brandon Morrow. Morrow throws harder, but both guys have the same type of secondary stuff and inconsistent command.
For whatever reason, I think he’s always been presented as a big league fastball and big league slider, but I could be misremembering.
Also, I hear he has ELEVEN PLUS PITCHES.
according to Brad Grant (Indians director of amateur scouting):
“He’ll run up to 95-96 MPH. He has good life to his plus fastball, and it has good, heavy sink to it and is more like a two-seam fastball. He features two different secondary pitches, a split which is a late swing-and-miss type pitch and a slider that is a swing-and-miss type pitch as well. He has very good size at 6’2” 235 pounds. He has been one of our targets since the beginning of the season and he was the top talent left up on the board at that point in time. He was a guy who once he pitched his senior year in high school he had the power stuff we liked with a power sinker, power fastball, and power slider, and he is just a very athletic, intelligent kid. He was a guy that we have known since high school, and our area scout Bob Mayer has known him since high school. He is a guy we had interest in when he was in high school but were unable to draft him, but watched him for the last three years in North Carolina. He is an intelligent kid who is very grounded and very strong in his values. He has added a split to his repertoire now, as in high school he was a power sinker-slider guy. We are going to likely project him out as a power backend bullpen arm. He is a plus-plus makeup guy. Our development path with the innings he has right now at North Carolina, we will probably slow-play it once we do get him signed, but we will begin the transition to the bullpen probably next year. We took him with the intention of signing him."
Any thoughts on where/when White will report? Does he have enough innings that his first stop might be the Fall IL?
Stuart Dean
I believe the plan was to get him started in the Fall instructional league given his innings from the college regular season and world series.
I think it was Lastoria on STO’s Minor League Magazine who said that White would likely start at Kinston next season – I could be wrong on that, but I think it was Lastoria who said that, and not Shapiro.
I would think though, as advanced as White is purported to be, playing in a major baseball conference, he could probably start off at Kinston (keep in mind that Sowers, a noted college pitcher from a major baseball conference as well, also did when he started off).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I believe he threw 131 pitches in his last game … after which his manager ran off at the mouth about how the Indians should pay him even more than they expected to.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
He did throw 131 pitches in that game, after which Mike Fox (the UNC coach) said he was “at his pitch limit” in the ninth inning. I think, though, that it was the ASU coach, Pat Murphy, who ran his mouth:
“Cleveland’s got a good one,” Murphy said. “Every big situation we had, he turned it up a notch. You knew you were in a fight with someone who was pretty special. That’s why Cleveland needs to pay him even more than they set out to pay him.”Murphy’s a bit of a loose cannon, who was investigated for providing improper benefits to players (he blames a disgruntled assistant).
Calhoun was hitless in his previous four at-bats, something Murphy razzed him about after the game, saying Calhoun spent the first nine innings signing autographs.The coach, who showed up in a Bruce Springsteen T-shirt at the postgame news conference, was full of one-liners. He said he grabbed the pulled pork sandwich from a concession stand in the second inning because he forgot to eat and was hungry. He said he made a list of all the things to remember about Omaha from the team’s trips here in 2005 and 2007.
“The first line says, ‘Keep your mouth shut,’” Murphy said. “The second line says, tough sun in right [field]. Big foul territory is No. 3. No. 4 is great pulled pork. No. 5 is Springsteen belongs here.”
Thanks for clarifying. Why the hell is he even commenting on this? But I guess bottom line is that he’s a fan of White’s.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
am so suck of this guy
Freud lives!
by ken from alexandria on Aug 18, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Which brings up another classic Onion piece … “I just thought I’d take everything I’ve come to represent, whip it as far and as fast as I could, and see who came down with it.”
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
An otherwise mild-mannered assistant in my office just told me she “wants to kick Brett Favre in the balls.” She’s a Vikings fan and says “he just pulled this crap to keep from having to drag his lazy butt to camp.”
This piece succinctly gets at why Favre has become so gross.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I was thinking that someone should check out Brett Favre’s mental status – what’s with this constant “retiring” and “coming back”? I think he just likes the attention.
One rumor had him even considering coming to the Cleveland Browns – personally, I’d say “no thanks” – Quinn hasn’t had a real chance to succeed, and Anderson would still be as good or a better bet to put up a solid season, since he’s younger and wouldn’t have the “media circus” that has been following Favre for the past few seasons.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Stephen Strasburg “won’t make his MLB debut before 2010.”
In another Twitter update, Nightengale quotes agent Scott Boras as saying that “Strasburg may or may not pitch in the major leagues next year.”
This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.
Jayson Stark thinks Strasberg’s signing proves how broken the draft has become. He makes the argument that even the major league players want to change the process, primarily so that the huge money teams are giving draft picks instead goes to major leaguers. Scott Boras may think differently.
Nowhere else to post this, so… WTF Aaron Crow? Even if he signs next year, he’ll be 24 before he begins his first full season in a major league farm system. How is this a good idea?
The once and future
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 18, 2009 4:57 PM EDT reply actions
Never mind, I just discovered he’s not subject to the same deadline. But still, the dude’s older than Paolo Espino.
The once and future
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 18, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
who was the guy a few years back who totally screwed himself by not signing? Am I thinking of Matt Harrington?
There were a couple of guys that screwed themselves. Matt Harrington was one. ESPN had a “where is he now” piece on him a few weeks/months back. The other was Alan Horne. Former Tribe draftee, went to college, got hurt, bounced around colleges then finally got drafted again. I think he’s in the Yankees system now. Too lazy to look it up.
Yes, he’s in the Yankee system. He actually was looking kind of promising, but then went down with another injury (I don’t know if he needed TJ or if he needed shoulder surgery – not sure, but it was a significant injury and surgery that was needed) that held him back this year, and he still hasn’t regaind the somewhat promising form he was starting to show around High-A/AA.
If he hadn’t been injured again, he might have made the Majors and been decent, but doubtful that the Indians would have regretted not signing him. Now, even his reaching the Majors will be enough of a challenge, let alone his being valuable at that level.
In the end, I’d give the advantage to the Indians in regards to who probably benefited more from not coming to an agreement.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
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