Game 118: Angels 5, Indians 4

by Ryan on Aug 18, 2009 10:52 PM EDT in Game Recaps Comment 25 comments

Fausto Carmona didn't pass tonight's test against a hot Angels lineup. He gave up 10 hits and 2 walks in five innings of work, and five earned runs (three of them earned). His troubles really started in the second inning, when Andy Marte botched a bouncer with two outs. A run scored on the play, and the next hitter drove in the second run of the inning. But even in his scoreless innings, it took too many pitches to retire the side, and by the time the fifth inning rolled around, he was already approaching 100 pitches.

But even though the Indians gave were down 5-1 after three innings, they had many opportunities to climb back into the contest but just couldn't turn a rally into a big inning. Travis Hafner was the main culprit tonight, posting a -.464 WPA due to several poor at-bats with runners on. In the third inning, he struck out with the bases loaded and one out on a pitch in the dirt, and batting in the seventh with the same scenario, he grounded into a double play.

The bullpen again did yeoman's work, holding the Angels at bay while the offense attempted to come all the way back. Jensen Lewis pitched two scoreless innings following Carmona, and Rafael Perez had his slider working against right-handers in the eighth.

Weaver vs. Sowers, 7:05 PM

290818105_angels_indians_138935175_lbig_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jhonny Peralta	.223	Travis Hafner	-.464
Asdrubal Cabrera	.138	Fausto Carmona	-.232
Shin-Soo Choo	.087	Jamey Carroll	-.185

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Comments

Rafael Perez had his slider working

sweet music

by APV on Aug 18, 2009 10:55 PM EDT reply actions

I was always under the impression that Perez1 would eventually rebound. I’m more encouraged by Lewis’ performance, especially considering he’s not exactly a flame thrower and really has no out pitch.

by gorilla_baller on Aug 18, 2009 10:58 PM EDT reply actions

I mean… I was once under the impression that Fernando Cabrera would rebound, too. No reason to take anything for granted.

by still ill on Aug 19, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh my god, hide me.

Most pitchers practice on getting the same release point, pitch after pitch. Homer concentrates on making the same disturbing face, pitch after pitch.

by Toxicadam on Aug 19, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

That’s because he looks at your avatar woven into his cap before each inning. Matt Garza style.

This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.

by westbrook on Aug 19, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Someone needs to get that picture of Zach Jackson from the Annual on here.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Aug 19, 2009 5:09 AM EDT up reply actions

I did once.

This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.

by westbrook on Aug 19, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

This is Victor's home. Victor Jose, you too.

by westbrook on Aug 19, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Boom.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Aug 19, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

So really, we would have been better off using a cardboard cutout of Hafner rather than the real thing tonight. Tough game. Can’t think of any other sport where that could be true.

by dgcambridge on Aug 19, 2009 2:23 AM EDT reply actions

Hafner is just terrible — who didn’t know the 4-6-3 DP wasn’t coming in the 8th? He’s a shell of his former self. Jensen Lewis can’t be around for much longer. How can a guy that can’t throw 90, and basically only throws a "fast"ball survive in the majors without pinpoint control and a solid second pitch? And don’t tell me he has a good changeup, haven’t seen it.

by Halifax on Aug 19, 2009 10:19 AM EDT reply actions

Um, no.

by Voltaire on Aug 19, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Why isn’t Scott Lewis making this start tonight?

The once and future

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 19, 2009 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

I think he is going tomorrow.

by JRontherim on Aug 19, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Because he’s in Columbus. Or do you actually mean starting for Columbus tonight? Because yes, in that case JR is right.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Aug 20, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I meant, why is Sowers still getting starts? If Lewis is healthy, I’d rather have seen him tonight.

The once and future

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 20, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Lewis hasn’t pitched in months. They will break him in at AAA first

by Roger Dorn on Aug 20, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

More accurately, he’s pitched fitfully in three inning bursts. You don’t go from throwing 3.2 innings for Kinston on August 15 to starting in Cleveland on August 19. He has 21 IP in six minor league starts.

by FredOx on Aug 20, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe because Sowers has a 4.02 ERA since mid-May?

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Aug 20, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m far more impressed by his 36:33 K:BB and 4.0 K/9 in the same time period.

The once and future

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 20, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

That is, he hasn’t turned any corners here.

The once and future

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 20, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m hesitant to rely too much on strikeout numbers for a guy like Sowers. He’s just not the kind of guy who’s going to strike a lot of guys out. He needs to cut down on walks, yes, but 3.67 BB/9 isn’t awful.

Seems to me he’s a case where you want to weigh “results measures” (like ERA, WHIP, OPS-against) more than you would with other types of pitchers. Not that you shouldn’t do the proper adjustments for luck and so forth, but just single-mindedly focusing on “true outcome” peripherals is not the way to go.

by Logodaedalus on Aug 20, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

But he does need to K more batters if he’s going to stick in the rotation.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Aug 21, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Here’s something kind of interesting:

When Sowers’ first pitch is a strike, opponents are OPSing .654 against him. That is including when the ball is put into play on that first pitch, which happens on 18.0% of strikes (for an OPS of .965). If the PA continues after an 0-1 count, they are OPSing only .584. Compare this to PAs after a 1-0 count: .857.

Compare this to Cliff Lee. For all PAs that include a first pitch strike, opponents are OPSing .596. After an 0-1 count, it goes up to .614. After a 1-0 count: .750. The ball is put in play on 18.4% of first pitch strikes.

Aaron Laffey
All first pitch strikes: .634
After 0-1: .663
After 1-0: .715
1st pitch strikes in play: 18.9%

I’m not trying to make too big a deal of this, but it’s just one more peculiar split for Sowers. In addition to times through the order, his fate seems to rest disproportionately on what happens with the first pitch, and when he gets ahead in the count, he’s actually been slightly better than Cliff Lee (by this one measure, anyway). And that includes Lee’s NL games.

We already knew he was a control pitcher and depends even more on throwing strikes than other guys do, but in small 2009 samples, this seems to be even more true for him than for other not-particularly-hard-throwers like Lee and Laffey.

by Logodaedalus on Aug 20, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions