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Fire Everyone! - John Mirabelli and the scouts

This is the fifth installment in a 12-part series.

The Cleveland Indians hired John Mirabelli as Director of Scouting in the fall of 1999.  Mirabelli was promoted to Assistant General Manager/ Director of Scouting prior to the 2002 season and signed a contract extension in May 2007 that takes him through 2010.  Later that year he took on an "expanded role in the procurement of amateur and professional talent, both in the United States and abroad" while Brad Grant assumed responsibility for overseeing all elements of the amateur draft.  The Indians have had many young players succeed during this time, though many have been plucked from other organizations.  After the disasters of the previous two years, is it time to fire John Mirabelli and the scouts?

If you're looking for an exhaustive analysis on how the Indians have drafted compared to other teams, or how they've fared with international signings, you'll need to look elsewhere on this site or in the Annual published last spring.  Keep in mind the goal of this series - holding people accountable, regardless if it is actually their fault ("and even if it isn't, it's probably time to fire somebody anyway.").

Firing Mirabelli is probably not a novel idea to LGT readers.  Some may say he hasn't had successful drafts, and others may say he hasn't drafted "high-ceiling" guys.  Or that he hasn't signed an impact player from the Pacific Rim.  Or that he speaks French, but not in Russian.  In any event, I'm going to focus on a few "fireable offenses."

  •  By and large, difference-making talent originally signed by the Indians does not exist on the current roster.

  • Admittedly, my mostly uninformed opinion from a year ago was that the Indians amateur drafts have been awful.  After getting some perspective from within this site, I've realized that "awful" is an overstatement, and when compared to other teams (particularly in the AL Central), it doesn't look bad at all.  Also, the amateur draft is just one way to add players to the organization.  And no, we're not going to debate selecting "high-ceiling players" for the 10 billionth time, or even the 11 millionth time.

    And in Mirabelli's defense, the Indians have only selected in the Top 10 once since 1992.  Budget constraints have certainly impacted their ability to select certain players.  But in the end, Cleveland's highest single-season slugging percentage of players signed after Mirabelli was hired belongs to Ryan Garko, who slugged .483 in 2007.   And of pitchers signed in the Mirabelli era, the highest single-season strikeout total by a Cleveland starter outside of Fausto Carmona belongs to fireballer Jeremy Sowers, with 64 in 2008 (though David Huff is making a charge this year).  Screw it, these are fireable offenses!

    Star-divide

    And the trading for several power arms (C. Perez, Knapp, Masterson, and Hagadone) this year was an effort to stock pitching depth, but it may as well been an admission of their inability to find these arms in other ways.  Again, the aforementioned lack of high draft picks and budget constraints have hampered the Indians in this pursuit, but remember, we're looking for accountability here.

  •  

    Signing David Dellucci

  • Sure, scouts didn't have the final say on this signing.  They may have had little, or even no input at all.  But in the spirit of Fire Everyone!, we're going to hold the scouting department accountable for not talking Mark Shapiro out of this one.  Outside of one good month, one great quote, and a good beard, there's not much else to take from this signing.  Sure, he tore his hamstring from the bone in 2007, but he wasn't doing anything before then either.  Was this a critical error that set the franchise back?  No.  But it was a swing and a miss.

  • Being unable to acquire talented minor-leaguers from other organizations

  • OK, just making sure you're paying attention.  If we're going to blame them for the Dellucci signing, we'll have to give them credit for this, to the extent he and his scouts were involved.  It's not that it's unimportant.  However, I suppose any number of us could have looked over the Dodgers' system and asked, "What about that Santana guy?"

  •  

    Signing Jose Ozoria Wally Bryan

  •  

    Sure, it isn't the first time this has happened to a major league club.  The Indians are not alone.  It also may be that the Indians did everything possible to avoid this.  However, in Andrew's piece on firing Larry Dolan, much of the discussion in the comments section centered on small market teams needing to become unique or unconventional in their methods.  I'll submit that in signing players who are actually older than they say they are, the Indians should strive to be unconventional and make sure this doesn't happen.

    It's not an exorbitant amount, but if you're going to spend $575,000 on signing an international free agent, you better make sure his ceiling is Asdrubal Cabrera and not Niuman Romero.  Perhaps we'll see young Mr. Bryan get a cup of coffee at first base in September 2014, thereby ending Andy Marte's consecutive game streak at 788.

    That wraps it up.  What about Brad Grant, you say?  Well, let's give him a pass.  We'll keep around anyone who uses their first pick on a player named Lonnie Chisenhall, especially if that player hits .276/.346/.492 at the age of 20 in High-A in their first full season.

    Should Mirabelli be fired?  Did the promotion of Brad Grant mean that Mirabelli was already "fired?"  Is Mirabelli now in a role that better suits him?  Or is saying "It hasn't been as bad as you think" good enough when you summarize the results of someone's performance in a significant role?

    2 recs  |  Comment 28 comments |

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    Comments

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    something i’ve never had a full grasp on is what scouts do what? i always imagine that there are scouts that are in latin america looking for talent. scouts in asia. scouts at college games, scouts at high school games, and scouts at major league games and that they never overlap. is this the case? if so, i would say it’s obvious, for example, that the ones at the minor league games are the best group. but some of the others might need a looking at.

    by Brick. on Sep 18, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

    Kinda interesting that Bavasi may have hired the guys who found Choo, Valbuena and Droobs.

    Captain of the SS [DO NOT TRADE] CHOO

    by westbrook on Sep 18, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Scouting versus asset management, ladies and gents.

    by fleerdon on Sep 18, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I could be wrong, and I’m too lazy to look it up, but I’ve always throught that it was Buck Showalter who, during that brief interlude when he was a special advisor, masterminded the Dellucci signing. If so, then the guy who hired Showalter, and who was listening to his advice—I assume that would be Mark Shapiro—ought to be held accountable for it. And yeah, it would be nice if we could identify exactly who decided it was a good idea to be pigging out on soft-tossing lefties.

    by ken from alexandria on Sep 18, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

    Fire Everyone! – DiamondView

    by fleerdon on Sep 18, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Fire Everyone! – Those Bloggers With High Standards

    Captain of the SS [DO NOT TRADE] CHOO

    by westbrook on Sep 18, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I’ve always held it against the Indians for not signing Lincecum when they drafted him in ‘05. So, for the record, here’s what I dug up about that situation:

    Because he turned 21 within days of last June’s draft, he was eligible to be picked as a sophomore, and the Cleveland Indians chose him in the 42nd round. But coming off what he calls his “worst season,” Lincecum opted to return to school and continue to prove himself, knowing he could be picked much higher this year and sign for a good deal more money.
    “Now I’m a better pitcher,” he says.

    Also, this.

    I just saw this that says the gap between signing and not signing Lincecum was $300,000. If it’s true, then we missed a rotation of Sabathia, Lee and Lincecum for $300k. Hindsight is always 20/20 though.

    by lenred on Sep 18, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

    This assumes that a Lincecum who entered the minors at age 21 after a “bad” sophomore season would have developed similarly to the way he developed at age 22 after a dominant junior season. That’s an additional year of pitching to aluminum bats and another year toward the end of the injury nexus, for a guy with a very unconventional delivery. Even with the benefit of hindsight (that is, full knowledge of the pitcher he is now), I don’t accept the argument that he was certain to become that pitcher once you change all those variables.

    The once and future

    by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Sep 18, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Another thing is what’s to say that the Indians (or any team for that matter) mess with his mechanics and such after drafting him in the 42nd round. Coming off his “worst year” wouldn’t really give him much a leg to stand on in regards to not being tinkered with by major league organizations. And seeing as how his mechanics are pointed out a lot as one of the pinnacles to his success there is a great chance he would not be the pitcher he is today if the Indians would have tinkered with things.

    by The Grimace on Sep 18, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    WILLIS COULD HAVE HAD A CHANCE AT DESTROYING HIM

    Captain of the SS [DO NOT TRADE] CHOO

    by westbrook on Sep 18, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Don’t think he would have ever made it that far….I have trouble imagining a 42nd round pick in 2005 coming off his worst season excelling to the point that Carl gets his hands on him.

    by The Grimace on Sep 18, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    These are all good points.

    I don’t believe that the Indians would’ve drafted him with the intention of “fixing” his mechanics. I think that his delivery is like Dontrelle’s – if it works, you just gotta live with any injury risk or anything else that’s a red flag. It’s just too complex to try to make these guys completely re-learn how to pitch. If you have to make major adjustements, it’s probably easier to just avoid the player altogether.

    Also, they waited until after his Cape Cod league to make him an offer, so they clearly knew he was talented, saw the potential and upside and made a run at him.

    by lenred on Sep 18, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    it is funny how much more often we do this than simply rec’ing a comment.

    by Brick. on Sep 18, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

    Rec.

    Is this the whale section?

    by sarcasmdave on Sep 18, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I think Hammy once mentioned the slotting system as the reason we didn’t offer him more.

    Captain of the SS [DO NOT TRADE] CHOO

    by westbrook on Sep 18, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Hammy is wrong. We drafted him in the 42nd round and reportedly offered him second-round money. Blaming this on the slotting system totally mis-characterizes the situation.

    by Jay on Sep 18, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Good points, guys.

    Captain of the SS [DO NOT TRADE] CHOO

    by westbrook on Sep 18, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Yeah, Hammy’s way off. The slotting system is only in place for rounds 1-10. After that, the general feeling is that you’re drafting a guy that isn’t good enough to get major money, or is basically dead-set on going to college, football, archaelogy expeditions, etc. that no amount of money is going to get him into your organization. So after the 10th round, you can pay them whatever you agree to.

    by lenred on Sep 18, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Also, the amateur draft is just one way to add players to the organization.

    so? what is the conclusion that follows from this premise?

    just because the draft is only “one way” to add players doesn’t mean we can afford to punt it every damn year. i’m not arguing that we’ve drafted well or poorly here—i just take issue with this specific argument, because it pops up every time we discuss the draft. even if you can acquire nice players elsewhere, there is an enormous opportunity cost incurred if you don’t draft well.

    If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.

    by Cap'n Snegiryov on Sep 18, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

    That sentence in no way suggests or implies that it’s acceptable to be poor in one area of player procurement because there are other avenues to obtain players. It simply clarifies that the draft is not the only way to add players to the organization.

    It’s fine that you have issue with a specific argument, but I don’t think many people here are arguing it.

    by TribeJay on Sep 18, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    ok. fair. just wanted to address that.

    also, i should say that i did enjoy your piece. i didn’t mean to come off as a grouchy a-hole.

    If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.

    by Cap'n Snegiryov on Sep 18, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Thanks. Just wanted to have fun with it.

    by TribeJay on Sep 19, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Here’s a thought: Mirabelli oversees international signing and scouting now, among his other responsibilities. So the organization has moved him to a position that is MORE reliant on scouting acumen than is draft director. If, and whatever, the Tribe front office believes Mirabelli did wrong, I’m not sure they think it’s related to his ability to manage scouts.

    Interesting piece.

    by fleerdon on Sep 18, 2009 3:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

    I somehow doubt they felt they were demoting Mirabelli as they were promoting him. This would be like demoting Shapiro to team president.

    A more likely scenario is that they felt that, in Grant, they had someone whose skills would map extremely well to running the draft, while they simultaneously had a desire to put more high-level attention on international scouting. I’ll say this for Mirabelli, he sounds as smart as any of those guys, if not smarter.

    by Jay on Sep 18, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Concur. I enjoy his answers to questions. In the wake of the Lee/Martinez trades, he was the only F.O. representative I heard who said something like, “No matter how well they play, they’re only two guys” — i.e., he was the only person who acknowledged that we weren’t playing all that great with both Cliff and Victor here, healthy, and on top of their games. He doesn’t speak MBA and I appreciate that.

    by fleerdon on Sep 18, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Interestingly, the Indians are requesting DNA testing on a couple of players they are negotiating with to verify their identity.

    Not so interestingly, Hoynes is now referring to Wally Bryan as Wally Branyan.

    by TribeJay on Sep 19, 2009 1:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

    .....

    its a conspiracy

    by siejecy on Sep 19, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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