the winter-ball reviews were much more positive on Indians reclamation project Fausto Carmona. The big stat: In three starts in the Dominican Winter League, Carmona walked a total of zero hitters. You might say that's a slight departure from Carmona's recent work in the big leagues.
He issued at least one walk in all 24 starts for the Indians last season -- even a couple in which he didn't get past the second inning. And over the past two years, his walk-to-strikeout ratio is a gruesome 140-to-137. Carmona and Jake Westbrook loom as two humongous figures for the Indians this year.
about 2 years ago
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Seems like we really haven’t seen Good Fausto since the bug game.
I don’t put much stock in his winter ball stats, but he wanted to pitch in the offseason, and had success. Coming into camp next month confident and in shape (I remember being surprised how, uh, large he looked in ST ’08), is about all you can ask of him right now after the last two years.
Good Fausto is hands down the ace of the staff. If he manages to settle into that role this year, it would have a huge settling influence on the rest of the rotation.
The Tribe fatalist in me thinks that Fausto will have a Cliff Lee-esque 2010 bounce back and win the Cy Young but his season will be wasted. Imagine C.C., Lee and a rejuvenated Carmona together atop the Tribe rotation. Gotta stop thinking about this kind of stuff.
Not impossible. Jake could have a bounceback year and be… Jake – that is, a solid middle of the rotation starter. Good Fausto is a legitimate #1 on a lot of teams.
Fausto having a great year would certainly not be a waste – never mind the effect it would have on the team, we have him under contract for some time to come.
But yeah, its not good to dwell on having CC and Lee as well.
I don’t think this “Good Fausto” guy exists. Carmona was great one year and hasn’t been near that before or since. Bad Fausto is much more likely and pretty bad.
On the other hand, Westbrook had one great year too, just a bit short of Fausto’s. But he surrounded that with a handful of solid seasons.
I’m not sure which is more likely to make 30 starts at a sub 5 ERA, but I think I’d pick Jake.
fka "DaytonDogg". Now a contributor to SBN's Dawgs By Nature. www.dawgsbynature.com
by Ryan Kelsey on Jan 23, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Good Fausto exists whenever he can throw that mid-90’s sinker for strikes. If you look over the course of his pro career, the guy that has no control and walks over 5 batters a game is the anomaly. Of course, two years is a long anomaly.
But there were signs he started getting it back together last September. His last start was definitely Good Fausto, and it was encouraging that he himself was the main proponent of continuing his work in winter ball.
While Fausto’s been pretty crappy the last couple years, at least he was pitching and working on it. Jake hasn’t pitched at all over that time. Nothing wrong with Carmona’s arm – to me he’s a much safer bet to make thirty starts than Westbrook.
Looking over the course of Fausto’s pro career, I’d say 07 was the anomaly.
Some of it is confidence, some is the league adjusting to him. Some is that, as a guy that never had the abiltiy to get a lot of K’s, he had a minimal margin for error.
Sure, his last start was nice, but I’m not going to consider him back until he can throw ML strikes for a few starts in a row.
fka "DaytonDogg". Now a contributor to SBN's Dawgs By Nature. www.dawgsbynature.com
I can’t blame people for getting jazzed about Fausto. Since Colon, I can think of two Indians’ starters that ever flashed truly electric stuff and had any degree of success: Fausto and CC. Maybe I’m overlooking somebody (a brief run of decent from Jason Davis?) but it’s been a depressing decade. I mean, the fact that he can throw in the mid-90s at all makes him an anomaly among Indians’ starters.
08 Spring Training Westbrook.
"I'm a baseball lifer. It's what I do." —Manny Acta
by westbrook on Jan 23, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
‘07 wasn’t an anomaly in that he was 23 yrs old and it was his first full major league season. If Jake hadn’t gotten hurt in ’08 and proceeded to win the cy young after many years of middling success, that would be an anomaly, in that it was a break from his track record.
The specific point I was making is that good control and strike throwing was FC’s hallmark since his first year at Lake County. If (big if) he can get back to controlling his stuff, he’s the best pitcher on the staff.
Don’t mistake me, I’m not predicting anything. He’s a huge question mark and it’s just as likely he’ll continue to have troubles this year as not. I don’t think anyone will pronounce him “back”, until, as you say, he puts it together for a continued stretch.
But on a staff where all the starters are questions, nobody will have a greater positive effect than Fausto if he answers in the affirmative.
Looking over the course of Fausto’s pro career, I’d say 07 was the anomaly.
I think we need to stop thinking this way. Just because there are anomalies doesn’t mean there’s necessarily one anomalous year and everything else falls in line. This is a analytical shortcut that doesn’t really pass any logical test.
As stuart suggests, this guy’s career has been more of a scatterplot. It’s also more relevant to consider his complete track record, rather than only his major league seasons.
That’s true.
Carmona is all over the place, but its been not a lot of good since 07. And the farther we get from that, and the more crap that he offers up in between then and now, the less likely, I feel, he will ever have another 07ish performance.
fka "DaytonDogg". Now a contributor to SBN's Dawgs By Nature. www.dawgsbynature.com
Jeremy Sowers in 2006 was an anomaly. A pitcher who can’t strike someone out typically can’t blow batters away or pick spots. Fausto Carmona absolutely can blow batters away with his sinker and arguably his fastball. It is reasonable for someone who rockets through the minors and embarrasses Major League batters (when not embarassing himself) – even in his bad 2006 – to have success in the majors. Just like it’s reasonable for a soft-tosser with imperfect command, bad marks on every scouting report, and superlow BABIP to never succeed or regress quickly.
Fausto rarely blew people away. His K numbers were never impressive. After 2007, we were hoping for Brandon Webb or at least another Jake Westbrook, Pedro Martinez was never even a hope.
Instead, we’ve got Jason Davis.
fka "DaytonDogg". Now a contributor to SBN's Dawgs By Nature. www.dawgsbynature.com
by Ryan Kelsey on Jan 24, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Just because his K rate was never impressive, doesn’t mean he’s unable to blow hitters away. In fact, he did just that in 07 and parts of his other years in the majors. I’ve rarely seen a guy inducing such awkward swings, weak groundballs and batters fouling pitches off their bodies like it’s going out of style. His problem the last few years has been command, while that was a strength throughout his professional career. Maybe he’ll never be the same, but the track record is there for him to refine his command and get back on track.
I mean, Fausto is just so much more filthy than Jason Davis. Obviously, there’s a strong chance Fausto is never good again, but that doesn’t mean that ‘07 was a fluke in a sea of bad seasons. Even in bad Fausto still has head-scratching ABs – the likes of which junior varsity Sowers never had even in 2006. It’s possible to have a well-earned phenomenal season and then collapse due to mechanics, injury, age, or whatever else. That doesn’t have to equal fluke.
What’s missing here is the elite groundball rates he had in 2007 to go with the unimpressive K rate.
It’s possible to have a well-earned phenomenal season and then collapse due to mechanics, injury, age, or whatever else. That doesn’t have to equal fluke.
That’s how I would define fluke. Significantly different that his other seasons, unlikely to be repeated, or even close to it. In my mind, it has nothing to do with being “earned” or not.
As for Fausto, I’m not sure that bad Fausto does have those moments any more. Maybe mechanically, he’s a different guy. If he has his control, I expect him to pitch like he did in August/Sept last year. Adjust your expectations.
Significantly different that his other seasons,
Only success in 2007 was only different in magnitude, not kind, from his first four professional league seasons. Not a fluke!
And even the difference in magnitude is partly attributable to his age. I still think there’s a significant difference in magnitude even after you adjust for that, but those who like to use the word anomaly evidently don’t like to look at the complete picture.
Age seems unlikely to account for the doubling in walk rate though. Or are you just saying that he’s young and therefore inconsistent?
by dgcambridge on Jan 26, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
I hear what you’re saying, and I am skeptical. I hope you’re right.
by dgcambridge on Jan 26, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
The last Indians game I saw in person, JD allowed 2 runs over seven effective innings, smoked a home run over the center field wall, and Jose Jimenez got the save. How’s that for a “blind squirrel” trifecta?
by kennesawmountainwahoo on Jan 24, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
In 2007, Fausto was the definition of “blowing guys away.” Not with high k-rates, but with a next to unhittable power sinker. If you watched any of his epic head-to-heads with Johan Santana that seasonI don’t know how you come to any other conclusion. I think the wear and tear of that season, and I sadly see the climax really as the Yanks playoff game (the greatest Tribe baseball game of my lifetime), that took its toll on Fausto and his mechanics have never been solid or his stuff as crisp since. Everytime I’ve seen Fausto pitch since 2007 he looks out of control, as if even when he is able to repeat his motion he is not doing so with an actual intended result in mind. I’m not holding out hopes that his unbelievable 2007 can come back, but I really do feel that if he can get healthy and get his motion together he can return to being a very good pitcher.
I’m not sure which is more likely to make 30 starts at a sub 5 ERA, but I think I’d pick Jake.
I’d pick Jake too, but if it’s 30 starts with an ERA in the top 15 or so in the league, then it’s probably Fausto.
by Logodaedalus on Jan 23, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
If Jake has a semi-lucky year with BABIP, he could easily be Top15 in ERA.
fixed.
"I'm a baseball lifer. It's what I do." —Manny Acta
That’s fair. Now that I look, the 15th best guy last year wasn’t as good as I expected. I think the general point probably stands though: Jake is a better bet to be solid-to-very good, but Fausto has more “elite” potential.
by Logodaedalus on Jan 25, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Prediction: 25-3, 1.66 ERA, 6+ K/BB ratio, but will lose the CY award to CC because he makes the playoffs.
by JP_Frost on Jan 23, 2010 5:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Exodus 37:23: And he made his seven lamps, and his snuffers, and his snuffdishes, of pure gold. Read innings for lamps, and of course his snuffers are sinkers. Thus is it writ?
bross is my muse.
by YoDaddyWags on Jan 26, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
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