Kenny didn't do 'roids, wants into the Hall
"I was a guy who never did it (steroids), never tried to do it, never wanted to do it but I played against guys who obviously were doing it," he said. "My competition level had to be at a certain level to be able to compete with those guys who were cheating."
about 2 years ago
supersizeme
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by Andrew Tolliver on Jan 28, 2010 2:31 PM EST reply actions
NL
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jan 29, 2010 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
I love Kenny Lofton. I’m not sure how anybody else’s steroid use had any impact on his game; I’ll bet he pulled back just as many home runs as he would have were everyone clean. I suppose steroids and HGH may—may—have shortened the DL stays of some top-notch pitchers, but quantifying the impact that might have had on Kenny is impossible. By the by, Raines’ HOF vote: 24%, 23%, 30%. My guess is Kenny falls short.
bross is my muse.
i think he falls in that range, too. in a way, this isn’t an un-clever way to try and drum up support. i could see him talking some people into voting for him where they might not have otherwise.
It sure spurred me to go back to the numbers and comparable players. The only HOF centerfielders with lower OPS and OPS+ numbers than Kenny are Max Carey and Lloyd Waner.
bross is my muse.
I don’t see Kenny as even comparable with Raines. Raines gets my vote, and I don’t even really feel that it’s a close call.
I agree, Raines is in and don’t give me a vote on Kenny because I’m not objective and would do the wrong thing. I was surprised how well Kenny does compare. Here are their 162 game totals, with an extra 40 plate appearances figured in for Raines to even things up:
PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Raines 711 608 108 179 30 7 12 67 91 67 55 10
Lofton 711 626 118 187 30 9 10 60 73 78 48 12
And of course Raines has the edge in career totals. Kenny’s range factors are much higher, but I don’t know enough about that—do CFs have a built in advantage their over the corners?
Sorry, I have no idea how to tab this properly.
bross is my muse.
PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Raines 711 608 108 179 30 7 12 67 91 67 55 10 Lofton 711 626 118 187 30 9 10 60 73 78 48 12
You can use the “pre” tag to do that. I don’t know how to type it here so that you can see the tag, but it works like any other HTML tag.
by cleveland teamer on Feb 2, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Just imagine how high all those infield popups would have gone had Kenny been on the juice.
by Jay on Jan 28, 2010 3:36 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
He did seem to recover rather quickly after really tearing up his rotator cuff and dislocating his shoulder in the ‘99 ALDS against Boston. He was in the line-up on opening day in 2000 and had a pretty good year coming off that injury. Are you sure there isn’t something you would like to tell us Kenny?
I’ve always been a huge Kenny fan, but I suspect he’ll fall just short. All the same, with absolutely no empirical data to support my assertion right now, I think the Indians of the mid-90’s had an inordinate amount of HOFers and fringe HOFers (even if some of them, like Eddie Murray, and particularly Dave Winfield are kind of cheap) — Murray and Winfield are in, Manny, Robbie Alomar, Thome, Vizquel and Lofton all have legitimate shots.
If I was a betting man—I am, by the way, so I don’t know why I said that—I’d guess, I don’t know, 10-12% of the vote.
Steel Nick
You’re not using the proper inflection when reading “fall just short.”
by FredOx on Jan 29, 2010 9:03 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
All the same, with absolutely no empirical data to support my assertion …
Are you a card carrying member of the BBWAA?
I agree with you overall, but I do think Vizquel and particularly Lofton (who is a stretch) will have to wait much longer.
When Omar is finally elected in his 14th year of eligibility, he will tell of his sadness at failing to be inducted for so many years and how he would wander the Venezuelan rainforest pondering why and ultimately blaming Jose Mesa.
Lofton will have to wait one or two years to fall off the ballot entirely.
Vizquel stays on the ballot at least six years and possibly 15.
Yeah, I don’t see that there is a strong case for Lofton.
I’ll argue vehemently for Vizquel even though I know my reasoning is clouded by my love for him as a fan. He is much less marginal than Lofton all said and done.
Vizquel is simply a more unique player, excelling at a particular thing for a very long time. Lofton was an outstanding base stealer for a half-dozen seasons, but not one of the best in the history of the game.
With the way the pundits talk Vizquel all but seems like a lock. The only thing I could see hurting him is his continued playing which would distance a lot of writer’s memories from his heyday. I mean, he is arguably the best defensive SS of all time. Add that with a fairly decent career at the plate and it makes sense. And you hit Lofton’s case on the head. Even though he shares comps with Raines he still wasn’t as good as Raines was.
MLB Network pundits are far more enlightened than BBWAA voters who include many a hack columnist that didn’t really cover baseball daily in the 90s and (judging from the results) I imagine vacillate between voting strictly by offensive numbers for some players and voting with their gut on others.
No, not you. Your helmet!
by PatBordersHelmet on Jan 29, 2010 9:02 AM EST up reply actions
statistically there is more of a case for lofton. Lofton had a higher Career WAR over less years, less games and less at bats. his WAR was in fact much higher (65.1-43.1)
Lofton wasn’t that much worse of a fielder either. his average year for TZ (similar to UZR) was about a 6.1. Omar’s average was an 8.2 but a 6.1 average is still pretty great.
If you want to average OPS+ Lofton’s career average was 24 points higher. Omar’s was average whereas lofton’s was pretty darn good
Lofton’s average season in WAR was a little over a 5.1. A 5.1 itself isn’t spectacular but for a career average it is pretty good. Bagwell, who I say should be a HOF lock had a career average of just under 6. To put it into perspective, Omar’s average career WAR is about 2.7.
Omar’s career steal success % is about 70. James figured out that you have to steal at least with 70% success to make a positive impact on the team. this means that omar’s steals had minimal impact on the team, if any.
Lofton’s steal success % is about 80%. that is pretty good. he was more successful than lou brock and had a similar success rate as joe morgan (and averaged almost 10 steals more per year than morgan, although about 5 less dingers).
Not only can you make the case that he is more deserving than omar (from an objective POV) but I can definitely argue that he is more deserving of brock. brock’s career TZ was -3 (compared to 80 from Lofton) and brock had a career WAR of 39.1 (compared to 65.1 for lofton) and brock played longer than either Omar or Lofton. the case can be easily made that brock is overrated and all he could do was steal (and only stole b/c he tried in mass amounts)
But Brock is considered undeserving by many. Nobody else with stats as bad as Brock’s has gotten in, except for shortstops (and a few veterans committee cronies).
The standard is simply different for shortstops, in a way not fully reflected by WAR. Vizquel is going to be compared to Ozzie, and basically only to Ozzie, and maybe Mazeroski.
I do see that point. I was really just making the case for lofton. I think both are deserving but will not make it on the first ballot. I feel both will get in eventually but it might take a while for lofton. and yes, I think omar probably gets in in less years than lofton.
I didn’t at all say that omar wasn’t deserving, I was more making the case for lofton.
I can’t imagine why anyone would think Lofton has a shot to get in. He has no shot, none.
Yes, he was a great base-stealer, but not for that long, and not historically great, and base stealing isn’t that important. Comparisons to Joe Morgan are moot. Morgan isn’t in there for his base stealing. He’s in there esssentially because he was a second baseman who at times led the league in slugging. He was a great player for many years and a very good player for several more; arguably the best ever to play his position. Lofton is not in the Top 10 at his position.
I can imagine why someone would think that lofton has a shot. I kind of layed it out before. He IMO has as much of a shot as tim raines. I don’t think raines will get in right away but he could get in eventually. Lofton is just as HOF eligible as raines really.
I would lay it out differently. I think that a position player, in order to have a serious shot, has to meet at least one of these criteria:
- 500 HR
- 3000 hits
- 8- to 10-year peak as one of the greatest hitters ever (based on rates).
- prolonged career as an elite defender and/or base runner
Kenny isn’t close to these marks.
Now, Dawson doesn’t meet any of these criteria, but he’s not too far from both the 500 (438) and the 3000 (2774). That, and the perception that he was an all-around impact player for more than a decade, plus personal intangibles, are what got him in. Rice’s story is similar.
Lofton has 2428 hits and 178 HR, so he’s not getting in on that. He won Gold Gloves and SB titles, but only for a brief part of his career. After his age-29 season, he didn’t win a single SB title or Gold Glove. His five SB titles averaged only 65 per season — hardly historic — and he only made the top 10 in SB three more times. His career high of 75 is hardly unique — 75 in one season has been done 95 times. And finally, despite some early Gold Gloves, he was considered a very average CF at best for most of his career.
So basically, Lofton hung around for a good eight years after he was no longer an All-Star, and despite that longevity, he still comes up short on the career totals. His peak was neither long enough nor impressive enough to warrant a serious look. And even in his prime, he wasn’t considered the premier CF in the game.
Ultimately, for a guy without “automatic” counting stats in hits or home runs, you have to have some exceptional reason to consider him an all-time great. Kenny has reasons, just not exceptional reasons.
I agree with you on those points.
I am not at all saying he is a lock. I am just saying he deserves a look, will get a look, and has an outside shot of making the HOF. personally I think he will end up coming a bit short.
Also, do you consider raines a HOFer??
I do. He was, compared to Lofton, an even better base-stealer, one of the two or three best ever, and an impact player for a longer period. The main difference between them is in career OPS+ — 123 vs. 107 is a huge gap.
but OPS+ is one stat. when you compare them in WAR lofton has a large advantage. raines also played for a longer period of time. when I look at it, if raines gets in, so should lofton.
by the Jamesian HOF monitor (where 100 is the average HOFer) lofton has a one point edge on raines. they still both have outside shots of making it.
Where are you getting your WAR data?
WARP3 has Raines at 30 wins better than Lofton — which makes sense, given he had better rate stats and a longer career. I doubt very much that WAR is saying something all that different. Is it possible you have the numbers wrong? Or maybe WAR only goes back to 1987?
It doesn’t seem possible that WAR has Lofton 14 wins better than WARP3, but Raines as 40 wins worse.
Dude, don’t use HoF Monitor as the be all end all. For Lofton’s ballet year of 2013 he ranks behind Jose Mesa and Roberto Hernandez in that metric for first timers on the ballot that year. I mean, it ranks Derek Jeter marginally higher than Tris Speaker and other greats. Not saying Jeter isn’t Hall worthy, but there is no way he is better than Speaker or some of the others he is ahead of.
Well, beyond a certain HOF monitor score, everyone is a lock to be voted in (if he’s eligible), so the relative scores at that extreme are really not relevant.
It is, however, relevant that Jose Mesa scores higher than Lofton.
Gotcha, after a certain number it is pretty much splitting hairs.
by The Grimace on Jan 30, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
I agree. If you were following, it was one of many points.
the site i found (although since jay also found one that says otherwise we don’t know whose is more accurate) says that lofton also had a significantly higher WAR. there are other factors besides just those. I would not base everything on that.
What site did you find? We still don’t have a link!
Basically, there is no way the numbers you cited can be correct. They just can’t be.
I don’t think that lofton at all will be a first ballot HOFer but I think he will eventually get in. just like tim raines will eventually get in. they are very similar players overall.
on the Jamesian HOF monitor, raines is a 90 and lofton is a 91.
raines also played for 6 more seasons and in about 400 more games so he played for longer.
when it comes to career WAR, lofton ranks about one point higher than Raines. this is impressive in a career since raines played for longer. He also has a similar WAR to Willie McCovey who also played longer than him. His WAR is higher than Ozzie Smith, Robbie Alomar, McGwire, yogi Berra, Harmon Killebrew, Andre Dawson, and Ernie Banks.
the only one of those current (and possible) HOFers who played for a similar amount of years and similar amount of at bats was Berra. for about a 9 year stretch he was getting on average over 5 WAR a year, mostly with the indians.
He also had an 80% success rate stealing bases which is pretty good.
He also had great TZ (total zone) numbers. TZ is not as accurate as UZR but is similar and was what was used when lofton was playing.
I agree he will not get in on the first ballot, but he definitely should get in eventually.
You’re using a whole bunch of advanced stats, but the voters just inducted Rice and Dawson, so obviously they know nothing about those stats.
You want to make an argument about who deserves to be in, you can use all the advanced stats you want. But there’s really no point using them to predict the behavior of the HOF voters, most of whom plainly are morons or not paying attention.
From what I’ve read about UZR, three defensive seasons have as much predictive value as one offensive season. Take that for what it’s worth. The other biggie with UZR is to never use UZR/150. The UZR/150 is a rate stat, while the actual UZR is a counting stat. To get to the rate, you have to project a number that already included much subjectivity. Use just the actual UZR despite a limited number of defensive innings, even though it makes your sample size that much smaller.
I think Kenny deserves to be in based on all the statistics above; however, I imagine he’s destined for the Hall of Very Good just because he doesn’t “FEEL” like a HoFer.
That might be a run-on sentence.
Would Kenny Lofton “cheapen” the hall if he got in? No. He’s better than some other players in the HOF at his position (Harry Hooper, Max Carey). However, his OPS+ was 107. “Slightly better than league average!” is hardly a ringing endorsement.
Tribe fan trapped in Kansas
he was also a great base stealer and had a very good glove. I am not saying at all he is a lock, but there are some stats that do shine favorably on him. his WAR is very good. better avg WAR per 162 games than Lou Brock, Tim Raines, better WAR in general than Dave Winfield and played in 5 less sesons.
Not that I think he is a lock but there are numbers that put him much better than slightly above average.
I am curious what the WAR calculation is using for the defensive aspect prior to 2000. I know that Lofton was a good defensive player, but how valuable is WAR for players prior to 2000 or so when defensive metrics started gaining traction? Are historical WARs only using offensive numbers?
I am not asking these questions to be rude, I legitimately don’t know the answer.
I honestly don’t know. I think historical WARs do use some defensive numbers. they do not use UZR but its predecessor TZ. lou brock had a lot of steals, but his TZ for his career was -3 (compared to about 80 for lofton and about 140 for vizquel) and he has very low WAR numbers.
I believe defense played a role in WAR before that point but there is no way to be completely sure…but Lofton was a better fielder statistically than all of the players I mentioned (who all tad TZs in the negatives).
I agree. They will vote in based on how someone “looks” or “feels” as a HOFer. by that sense, lofton is doomed. from a statistical standpoint I am saying he has an outside shot. he still might have a shot even if the BBWAA isn’t using as much advanced stats, but its a small shot.
Well, I just strongly disagree, and when you realize Lofton isn’t ahead of Raines in WAR, maybe you’ll change your mind. Lofton has a greater chance of falling off the ballot in his first year than he does of getting in, ever.
“I do see that point. I was really just making the case for lofton. I think both are deserving but will not make it on the first ballot. I feel both will get in eventually but it might take a while for lofton. and yes, I think omar probably gets in in less years than lofton.
I didn’t at all say that omar wasn’t deserving, I was more making the case for lofton.
by bross09 on Jan 29, 2010 9:02 AM PST"
compare that to:
“I am not saying at all he has a good shot”
One my favorite players growing up…I am a sucker for stupid batting stances.
by The Grimace on Jan 31, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
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