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Indians of the Decade: Prologue


The is the first entry in a series.

As we enter a new decade of Indians baseball, we at Let's Go Tribe thought it would be interesting to look back at the players who played during the past turbulent ten years. The Aughts began with the end of a quasi-dynasty, saw a short return to prominence after several years of rebuilding, and ended with the worst season since the early 1990s. The Indians made the playoffs twice, barely missed the playoffs twice, and won at least 90 games four times. But only once did the Indians have two consecutive winning seasons, and that was at the beginning of the decade.

With this turbulence came almost constant roster change. No player appeared in an Indians uniform every year this decade, and after Omar Vizquel left following the 2004 season, the Indians didn't have a player on its roster who had been with the club ten consecutive seasons. But even with the changes, we watched some outstanding players and great seasons during the first decade of this century. We saw Jim Thome hit 52 home runs in 2002, Travis Hafner lead the league in OPS in 2006, and two Indians win back-to-back Cy Youngs in 2007 and 2008.

This series will look at the outstanding Indians of the decade, starting out with a simple statistical ranking. Then we'll make our cases for individual players. And finally, we'll construct our own personal rankings. Along the way, we'd appreciate your input, both on the players themselves, as well as the methods by which we rank them.

Now, onto the initial rankings....

Star-divide

First, a word on just who is included. A player is eligible if he appeared in one game for the Indians from 2000 to 2009. Only time with the Indians is counted. Seasons before 2000 are included, though those contributions are significantly penalized. In this initial ranking, we used Baseball Prospectus's WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Level). Seasons with the Indians between 2000 and 2009 are given full credit (WARP3 A), while seasons with the Indians before 2000 are included, but are multiplied by .20 (WARP3 B). I've included the top 36 players, drawing the line between Milton Bradley (3.5) and Ben Francisco (3.3).

 

WARP3 A WARP3 B WARP3 Total Yrs From To ▾
Grady Sizemore 31.2 0.0 31.2 6 2004 2009
C.C. Sabathia 27.0 0.0 27.0 8 2001 2008
Travis Hafner 22.8 0.0 22.8 7 2003 2009
Victor Martinez 21.4 0.0 21.4 8 2002 2009
Jim Thome 14.4 29.9 20.4 12 1991 2002
Jhonny Peralta 17.3 0.0 17.3 7 2003 2009
Bartolo Colon 14.3 8.2 15.9 6 1997 2002
Cliff Lee 15.2 0.0 15.2 8 2002 2009
Jake Westbrook 13.7 0.0 13.7 8 2001 2008
Roberto Alomar 9.9 7.7 11.4 3 1999 2001
Casey Blake 10.8 0.0 10.8 6 2003 2008
Shin-Soo Choo 10.5 0.0 10.5 4 2006 2009
Omar Vizquel 6.1 21.3 10.4 11 1994 2004
Bob Wickman 9.8 0.0 9.8 6 2000 2006
Rafael Betancourt 9.7 0.0 9.7 7 2003 2009
Asdrubal Cabrera 9.3 0.0 9.3 3 2007 2009
Ron Belliard 7.8 0.0 7.8 3 2004 2006
David Riske 7.2 0.0 7.2 6 1999 2005
Kelly Shoppach 7.0 0.0 7.0 4 2006 2009
Ellis Burks 6.1 0.0 6.1 3 2001 2003
Danys Baez 6.0 0.0 6.0 3 2001 2003
Chuck Finley 5.9 0.0 5.9 3 2000 2002
Paul Shuey 4.5 5.4 5.6 9 1994 2002
Steve Karsay 4.5 2.6 5.0 4 1998 2001
Coco Crisp 4.8 0.0 4.8 4 2002 2005
Einar Diaz 4.2 2.6 4.7 7 1996 2002
Fausto Carmona 4.7 0.0 4.7 4 2006 2009
Kenny Lofton 4.4 27.9 4.4 10 1992 2007
Manny Ramirez 4.4 26.5 4.4 8 1993 2000
Dave Burba 3.0 6.9 4.4 5 1998 2002
Juan Gonzalez 4.2 0 4.2 2 2001 2005
Bobby Howry 4.1 0.0 4.1 2 2004 2005
Kevin Millwood 3.9 0.0 3.9 1 2005 2005
Ryan Garko 3.8 0.0 3.8 5 2005 2009
Milton Bradley 3.5 0.0 3.5 3 2001 2003

 

If you'd like to crunch the numbers yourself, you can download my spreadsheet here.

UPDATE: I've added Juan Gonzalez, who I had missed out on earlier, and revised downwards the totals of Nagy, Lofton, and Manny, because their 1990-1999 totals were more than their 2000-2009 totals.

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Comments

Display:

i made a list off the top of my head and david riske was in the exact same position on mine.

by Brick. on Jan 4, 2010 10:46 PM EST reply actions  

Awesome that’s the name that IMMEDIATELY jumped out at me, too.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Jan 5, 2010 2:09 AM EST up reply actions  

check out the tenure on jhonny

by Brick. on Jan 4, 2010 10:48 PM EST reply actions  

1 Millwood = 5 Garko

by Brick. on Jan 4, 2010 10:50 PM EST reply actions  

If only Charles Nagy could have played RF …

I've really got to change my signature.

by emd2k3 on Jan 5, 2010 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

now i say, “if only ryan garko could….”

by Brick. on Jan 5, 2010 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Hey, why not? He did put up a 2000 ops for the decade.

For that matter, Sabathia managed a 792, compared to the immortal Dellichaels combined 703.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Jan 5, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

IIRC, Garko’s defensive ratings were horrible.

by Ryan on Jan 5, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions  

The fact that Einar Diaz makes the list (and Hafner obviously does) is kind of cool.

I've really got to change my signature.

by emd2k3 on Jan 5, 2010 12:28 AM EST reply actions  

And makes my Indians autographed ball from ’01 skyrocket in value! In my mind, at least.

Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...

by USSChoo on Jan 5, 2010 1:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, or it’s kind of sad.

"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay

by Turkmenbashi on Jan 5, 2010 8:54 AM EST up reply actions  

i think the most impressive names on that list, all things considered, are (in order of impressiveness) rafael betancourt and casey blake.

by xrickx on Jan 5, 2010 12:48 AM EST reply actions  

i, paused, three times, reading that comment.

by Brick. on Jan 5, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

What’s the conventional wisdom on FRAA? Is it still not thought of very highly? It has Victor 38 runs below average and Jhonny 15 runs above average for their careers. I would have pegged them both to be slightly below average.

by ClarkM on Jan 5, 2010 10:50 AM EST reply actions  

My take is that in some cases, FRAA is out of line with observational defensive evaluations, Peralta being the most glaring example.

by Ryan on Jan 5, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Okay, so what would the alternative be to use FRAA? (Actually, I think it’s FRAR that’s a component of WARP.)

WARP3 has some great built-in advantages that I don’t think can be manipulated easily, in particular the era-balancing. Is it possible to use it while swapping out FRAR for UZR or something like it? Or do you end up needing to start over with FanGraphs-style win estimation?

by Jay on Jan 7, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

What’s the thought process behind including time prior to 2000 (even though it’s penalized) in the rankings/ratings?

by Voltaire on Jan 5, 2010 11:17 AM EST reply actions  

It’s just recognition that some players’ significance to the franchise goes well beyond this decade. I don’t think of it as being included but penalized. I look at it more as bonus points.

Of course, several others on the list will rack up WARP3 in the next decade, but it’s impossible to project that any of them, even Sizemore, will have the significance outside of this decade that Thome had.

by Jay on Jan 5, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

To be clear, the methodology is a work in progress, and we’re interested in how others think it should be handled.

by Jay on Jan 5, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

my first reaction was “if it happened before 2000, it didn’t happen” but then you might was well just add up the numbers for those 10 years and call it a day – where millwood’s 2005 and manny’s 2000 won’t stand a chance to get on the list when a riske has spent 5 seasons with the indians…

by Brick. on Jan 5, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Adding at least some credit for previous production does help even out the inherent arbitrariness of the exercise.

by Ryan on Jan 5, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

seriously. nobody looks at a calendar and says “it’s a new decade” and goes out and plays baseball better.

"I'm a baseball lifer. It's what I do." —Manny Acta

by westbrook on Jan 5, 2010 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks to Ryan and Jay for both replies. My initial thoughts were the same as Brick’s: “It’s pre-2000. It didn’t happen.” I agree with Jay’s statement, and Ryan’s implication, that they’re more like “bonus points.”

However, if the purpose of an all-decade ranking, from 2000-2009, includes data outside that range, I don’t think it damages the rankings at all, but it doesn’t provide what it says on the tin: rankings for 2000-2009.

It may make the exercise fairly “boring” – it’s just stats from 2000-2009 – but to me that’s all it should be.

Either way, I’m certain I’ll love reading the series.

by Voltaire on Jan 7, 2010 1:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Would it be relevant to rank by WARP3/season with the seasons prior to this decade being penalized by multiplying them by 1.2 to result in a higher denominator. Doing this using the list of players above results in the following rankings:

Grady Sizemore = 5.2
Kevin Millwood = 3.9
Roberto Alomar = 3.6
C.C. Sabathia = 3.4
Travis Hafner = 3.3
Asdrubal Cabrera = 3.1
Victor Martinez = 2.7
Shin-Soo Choo = 2.6
Ron Belliard = 2.6
Jhonny Peralta = 2.5
Bartolo Colon = 2.4
Bobby Howry = 2.1
Ellis Burks = 2.0
Danys Baez = 2.0
Chuck Finley = 2.0
Cliff Lee = 1.9
Casey Blake = 1.8
Kelly Shoppach = 1.8
Jake Westbrook = 1.7
Jim Thome = 1.5
Bob Wickman = 1.4
Rafael Betancourt = 1.4
Coco Crisp = 1.2
Fausto Carmona = 1.2
Milton Bradley = 1.2
Steve Karsay = 1.1
Manny Ramirez = 1.0
David Riske = 1.0
Kenny Lofton = 0.9
Omar Vizquel = 0.9
Dave Burba = 0.8
Ryan Garko = 0.8
Einar Diaz = 0.6
Paul Shuey = 0.5
Charles Nagy = 0.2

by matt7 on Jan 5, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s dicey. Players called up, acquired or traded midseason are charged with a full season in the denominator. This may be appropriate in terms of penalizing for DL time, but not in those other cases. Peralta was called up in 2003, when he was by no means ready for the majors but was plugged in from Double-A as a stopgap, and then he’s a September callup a year later. Right away, he’s got two years in his denominator and almost nothing in the numerator.

I don’t think anyone who only played for one season deserves consideration, and even a two-season guy would have to have a hell of a good two seasons.

by Jay on Jan 5, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I think what you’re looking for is the best season in the last decade, which would also be an interesting list.

This exercise is the best career among Indians who played most of their Indians career in the Aughts.

by Ryan on Jan 5, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Eligibility is one game, huh? So we should expect Juan Gonzalez to make the list?

by Matt in LA on Jan 5, 2010 12:47 PM EST reply actions  

Juan played in 141 games for the Indians this decade, with an OPS of 958.

by Jay on Jan 5, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I did miss him, because I took out the players with less than 900 PA. He does make the top 35. I’ll update the spreadsheet tonight.

by Ryan on Jan 5, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I can’t tell you how much joy it brings me to see David Riske and Einar Diaz higher than Ben Francisco.

by fwembt on Jan 6, 2010 12:12 AM EST reply actions  

Within the last ten seasons ….. we have had 246 players appear in a game for our Tribe.

141 pitchers and 105 position players.

Based on length of service, the years break down as such:

8 – Victor, CC, Clifton, and Westbrook

7 – Jhonny, Pronk, and Raffy B

6 – Grady, Blake, Wicman, and Jason Davis

5 – Vizquel, Broussard, Garko, McDonald, and Riske

Other fun facts for the decade:

Players by position -

C – 13, 1B – 30, 2B – 29, 3B – 32, SS – 22, LF – 52, CF – 26, RF – 48, DH – 67

Pitchers – 53 different pitchers started a game, with 11 starting 50 or more games in the decade.

by talonk on Jan 11, 2010 7:16 PM EST reply actions  

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