BA's Cleveland Indians top 10
1. Carlos Santana, c
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b
3. Nick Hagadone, lhp
4. Nick Weglarz, of
5. Michael Brantley, of
6. Jason Knapp, rhp
7. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
8. Hector Rondon, rhp
9. Alex White, rhp
10. Jason Kipnis, 2b
Agree, disagree?
over 2 years ago
JP_Frost
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And the chat starts at 2, if you’d like to submit any questions. The only time I did so, I got a response in the published chat from the moderator.
Also, Tony’s got an interesting top 30 ranking, averaging rankings from 15 of his regulars. I think that would be interesting to do here as well:
I’m struck by BA’s Top Prospect of the Decade picks from 2005-2008. I guess saying something over and over again doesn’t necessarily make it true.
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On the other hand, here’s the 2008 list:
1. Adam Miller, rhp
2. Chuck Lofgren, lhp
3. Beau Mills, 3b/1b
4. Wes Hodges, 3b
5. Aaron Laffey, lhp
6. Nick Weglarz, of
7. Jordan Brown, of
8. David Huff, lhp
9. Ben Francisco, of
10. Jensen Lewis, rhp
So it’s not really that controversial of a pick.
by Jay on Jan 6, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
Oops. Don’t know if that is reflective of the rankings or a much worse farm than we realized at the time.
Little of both. We graduated Asdrubal, Gutierrez, Carmona and Perez from prospect status over the course of 2007.
by Jay on Jan 6, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
I would have Rondon at #3. I still don’t understand why the experts keep putting him in the bottom 5.
My impression is that the experts just aren’t that fond of Rondon’s stuff. Given Rondon’s proximity to the big leagues, his statistical performance, and his injury history, I tend to agree with you.
However, I recall a similar sort of groaning last year about David Huff getting disrespected by all the experts. They weren’t giving enough attention to his statistical performance, instead were biased by traditional scouting profiles. That still may be true, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the scouting evaluations.
I agree with this.
BA is overly focused on ceiling and under-impressed with what Rondon’s achieved on the field.
On the other hand, after four years of harping on the econometric perspective, from the original PTM-nee-EPS pieces to Adam’s recent series, we’re probably overly biased in the other direction.
by Jay on Jan 6, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
Probably. But until we find out the systematic problem with our particular brand of 4+ K/BB guys, I say we keep bringing them up.
Huff was uninspiring as a rookie, but that 2008 season of his is awful purdy. I have hope.
by fleerdon on Jan 6, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
If he weren’t a first-rounder, he’d almost be the archetype of the all-performance-no-scouting prospect.
by Jay on Jan 6, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
Two thoughts.
1. Weglarz! is the only 2010 Top Ten prospect who also made the list in 2008. That is some g.d. turnover, friends.
2. As we’ve noted before, Nos. 1 through 8 are awfully obvious. So, I guess, if you’re going to make a statement about your player development philosophy, it’s with Nos. 9 and 10. Badler likes White and Kipnis, which is all well and good, except that neither has any professional experience worth mentioning. I’d lean toward House and Putnam, and I’d scratch my chin for a bit over Marson, Barnes, and Gomez.
by fleerdon on Jan 6, 2010 1:02 PM EST reply actions
I’d definitely put White over House, despite lack of pro experience. Kipnis I wouldn’t even bother ranking unless he’s truly a 2B now. I like Alex Perex a little better than House, and he’d sneak onto my top 10.
And they might all be at Kinston next year, too.
My sentiments on Kipnis, too, although I probably would have phrased it as: If Kipnis is really going to stick at 2B, then he’s solidly a Top 10 guy.
by Jay on Jan 6, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
BA chat mentions the only reason Kipnis got into top 10 was a “weighted probability” that he will continue as a 2b.
weighted probability + upfudge = sure thing.
by Brick. on Jan 6, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
RE: White, I just don’t feel quite right about ranking a guy who has yet to dress in a pro uniform. That said, I get that BA’s schtick is that they know things we don’t, or can’t. I dig splitters, anyway.
I’m a big Kipnis fan, but if you’re telling me his 100-some plate appearances and the reasonable probability that he’ll work out at second base are more promising than, for example, the seasons that House, Perez, or Gomez put together … yeah, I’m either incredulous or pretty excited, depending on how right you are.
by fleerdon on Jan 6, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Next year’s list will tell! Actually, a month into the upcoming season will tell. Just can’t say at this point. Crossing out “OF” and penciling in “2B” doesn’t mean much right now.
Of course, they have to give him a full, no hedge yer bets shot at 2B as a minimum requirement – I don’t think they did that with Crowe.
Interesting comments about the team’s defense. We could make a push toward stronger D in 2010 by playing Marte at 3rd and starting Brantley everyday, no?
Areas of significant and likely improvement on defensive efficiency:
- No Garko anywhere on the diamond.
- Marson replacing Shoppach and Victor.
- Asdrubal, Valbuena, and Choo with incremental improvements.
- Asdrubal-Jhonny on the left replacing Jhonny-DeRo.
- Grady healthy.
- Fewer IP from sub-replacement pitchers. (What was our DE% with Perez on the mound?)
But yes, your two items would also help. Let’s not forget, if he gets a few weeks at 1B, Marte probably settles in over there and provides Youkilisesque defense from that position.
by Jay on Jan 6, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
The bench should help too.
- If the Indians go with Kearns over Duncan, Kearns can play the hell out of the corner OF spots. Crowe as well, but he did that last year.
- Toregas, if we’re trusting all the scouting reports we’ve read, is a big improvement over everyone behind the dish. He won’t see a ton of time, but I’d bet Maron gets more off days than the previous starter.
- Marte should replicate what Carroll did at 3B. Not sure if anybody in-house has the glove to do what Carroll did at 2B.
Yeah, I see our IF defense, and overall defense, being pretty good to start the year presuming Marte at 1B.
I frankly haven’t been able to get a good read on Brantley defensively. He hasn’t shown me much in the limited time I’ve watched him, and reports over the course of his minor league career have varied quite a bit. Remember, he was actually pulled from the OF in Huntsville to practice at 1B for a while, altho it seems he’s gotten better since then.
To tell you the truth, the guy who surprised me in the OF was LaPorta. He made some very athletic plays out there.
We have got to put a stop to this “he played 1B for a while” crap.
Yes, he played 1B for a while, but it was because he was recovering from a leg injury and they wanted to get him back in the lineup quicker.
It had nothing to do with the idea that maybe he couldn’t stick in the outfield. In terms of overall skills, Brantley is on the CF side of playing LF, not on the 1B side of playing LF.
by Jay on Jan 6, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Chiz is getting a lot of love in the chat. “Second best 3B in the minors” “scouts from other teams rave about him” “potential future star – one of two in the system along with Santana”…
No, one question so far about if and when he’ll hit for any power. Answer: not soon. The chat is non-subscriber, btw:
Not exactly, if I remember correctly. He didn’t like Chisenhall, but he was livid about Roberts and Phelps (to CWS). He wasn’t alone in the Chiz thing, anyway. Law and a couple other guys were also dismissive — evidently we were supposed to respect the Red Sox’s preference to take Chisenhall with their second or third pick. I think Goldstein was the most prominent draft observer who went to bat for Brad Grant on that one.
by fleerdon on Jan 6, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, man, can you imagine how much hype Chiz would be getting as a BoSox prospect by now? Everybody would be raging that we passed him by for Hagadone in the Victor trade, and I’d be trying to compare him unfavorably to Jeremie Tice or Kyle Bellows.
by fleerdon on Jan 6, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Lmao. Nice Subject Line.
I’ll take avoidance for 200.
"I'm a baseball lifer. It's what I do." —Manny Acta
How’s your mother doing?
I've really got to change my signature.
by emd2k3 on Jan 6, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Biggest positive for me is the number of starting pitchers on the list and it doesn’t even include Perez, House, Gomez.
I agree. When APV did the position list, it sure seemed like there were 4 position players clear cut above the others: Santana, Wegz, Brantley, Chisenhall. Those are the 4 guys who’ve hit the upper minors with all-star potential. Although I’m sure there are people who would say that’s generous to Brantley relative to the Philly guys.
The pitching seems to be an endless spectrum, on the other hand.
even though he doesn’t qualify, i still lump laporta in when thinking about this stuff. and, to a lesser degree, luis valbuena.
best defensive infielder: Jason Donald
Will the Indians really go out and pay for a utility guy? Belliard (who apparently clashed with Acta is Washington)? Jerry Hairston Jr.? I don’t see a Juan Uribe or Adam Kennedy floating around for a minimum salary deal.
Leave it to Marte and Donald/Luis Rodriguez.
One nice thing about having three shortstops on your 25-man is that you have a lot of discretion when it comes to your utility infielder.
I appreciated the nod to Donald there. All we heard is that his range at short is fringey; I think it didn’t really get out that he might be very good at everything else infielders do.
by fleerdon on Jan 6, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
There is some confusion over whether Acta loves Belliard or hates him. One thing’s for sure: He’s chubby and not getting any younger.
by Jay on Jan 6, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
That’s actually two things:
1. Chubbiness
1. Not getting any younger
"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay
by woodsmeister on Jan 6, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
All I have read (Hoynes?) is that Acta doesn’t want Belliard on his team after some episode last season.
I read that, too, but it just seems gossipy. Does Acta seem like a guy who takes one incident, blows it out of proportion, and then blackballs a player that he used to like?
No, but I don’t know enough about Acta to judge. Somebody told Hoynes that, and Hoynes presumably trusted his source.
depends on what the incident is. If belliard used his toothbrush, i’m pretty sure the incident blew over. If he trotted down the line on a double play ball, Acta probably forgives and forgets. But say the incident involved Mrs. Acta and a bottle of Patron? which I suppose is why it’s silly for Hoynes to give even a cursory mention to things like that.
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BA chat wrap, wrapped:
- Chiz and Santana clearly separated from the rest. Both have potential to be stars.
- Hagadone the only pitcher projected as a frontline starter, any indications of wear and tear would make him a power reliever.
- Rondon and Carrasco similar in that development of secondary pitches will dictate how successful they would be in ML.
- CC Lee as sleeper.
- De La and Rivero as having above avg tools (higher ceiling), waiting for performance to catch up.
- Putnam and Judy bright spots in relief, Judy could help this year.
- Kipnis needs to stay at 2B, brass was EXCITED during instructs with his performance there.
- Overall, unlike other systems, could see prospects as far down as 20-25 making ML contributions at some point (depth).
by mcrose on Jan 6, 2010 7:14 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Three things
1 – I can understand the enthusiasm about Nick Hagadone — he’s got a strong, athletic body with good actions and very good left handed arm strength. However, I think a case could be made that he’s the most overrated prospect in the system. Hagadone has a few too many moving pieces in delivery and it can cause control and command problems. This qualitative observation is qualified by high walk rates in A-ball. He also just turned 24, so you would like to see a more compact, controlled delivery in this stage of his development. He still has time to straighten things out, but I am inclined to see his upside as Matt Thornton, who was a pretty similar prospect at Hagadone’s age. Thornton is a hell of a pitcher, but it took him a long time to develop.
2 – Weglarz at #4 was a bit surprising. If you look around the majors, you don’t see many good hitters that struck out as much as Weglarz has in the low levels of the minor leagues. He is still green, and did improve at the end of the most recent season, but often times the prospects you have to make excuses for aren’t that great prospects. If other MLB teams value him according to BA’s ranking, I’d be willing to send Weglarz on his way out of the organization via trade.
3 – I think Kelvin De La Cruz very well turn out to be the best pitcher in the system when all things are said and done. He has some things to work on, but the projection and athleticism are too great to overlook. I hope he comes out this spring healthy and throwing strikes, because if he does, he will have tremendous value to the organization. I’m not saying he’s the best pitching prospect, b/c I would take Rondon first of any in the system right now, but I believe De La Cruz is a special talent.
by OhioTommy on Jan 6, 2010 10:35 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
1 – Well, we probably have control over Hagadone through 2018, so, you know, we can wait.
2 – Even if they agree with you, the BA rankings tend to be all about upside. Weglarz has faults, but his upside is gigantic if he can minimize them. That’s a high ceiling, and that gets you to #4 per BA. Having said that, I won’t weep if he’s traded.
I too was surprised that Weglarz is still thought of so highly. He’s still young for his league but at some point you’d like to see him show the ability to put the bat on the ball. Hard to find many premier hitters in the majors who hit .224 in a full minor league season. Strikeouts have come down a bit the last couple years, but are still high.
I’m still sitting on a grand. It’ll rebound.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jan 7, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
I think this is another misconception when it comes to prospect ranking and evaluation … they are not talking about whether a guy is going to be a “premier” hitter. They are talking about whether he’s going to have a significant major league career at all. If they think a guy has a good shot to be Lyle Overbay, that’s an excellent prospect. Hardly any prospects eventually become superstars.
by Jay on Jan 7, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Got ya. It’s been hard for me to come to grips with the fact that he’s more likely to be a Bubba Trammell or Cliff Johnson. I imagined he could be a guy like Konerko or Burrell, which seems almost out of the question at this point.
No no, everybody’s more likely to be a Bubba Trammell (a ridiculous comp by the way) or Cliff Johnson than a Konerko or Burrell.
Of course that’s true. You’re right about Trammell, not sure why I went there. How about Russell Branyan?
Austin Kearns doesn’t have the eye-popping 19 y.o. season, but his year 20-21 seasons look somewhat comparable. What I’m saying is that I’m not terribly optimistic (surprise!) based on his numbers the last two years. I hope his breakout comes this year.
It might be true with a most teams, but it seems like every single person who’s considered an expert of some sort always, and I mean ALWAYS adds “to me I could see him as a reliever”.
Is it because nobody wants to be the guy to have to expain what they see that will make said pitcher be an effective starter at the ML level or is it just easier to say “he projects as a solid power reliever”?
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