2010 Top Prospects: The Down and Out
by APV on Oct 11, 2010 3:00 PM EDT
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PrintEvery year prospects are lost to injury. Sometimes they recover, sometimes they don't. Even if a player does recover, that recovery might take a season or two, during which time a quick glance at their numbers fails to tell the whole story. Here are a few of Cleveland's players who either missed substantial parts of 2010 or just making their way back from injury. Even if healthy, these guys wouldn't necessarily be prospects, but they are worth remembering.
1. Adam Miller (25.9, ?)
A year ago I began my write-up of Miller in this series by comparing him to Satchel Paige:
Adam Miller just turned 25 yesterday, but in baseball years he might as well be Satchel Paige.
At this point, though not yet 26, if Adam Miller ever pitches a major league inning the comparison should probably be with Tommy John. Miller's medical journey has, and sadly will likely remain, a more interesting story than his baseball career.
2. Alexander Perez (21.5, A+)
Probably the breakout pitcher of the system a year ago, Perez didn't make it out of his second start in 2010 before going down with a sore elbow. After some delay, Alexander Perez found himself getting prepped for TJ surgery and is not expected back till the second-half 2011. Fortunately, he won't be turning 22 until late July of 2011, so time, if not his elbow, is on his side.
3. Hector Rondon (22.6, AAA)
Last year's top pitching prospect, Rondon suffered through an inexplicably horrendous 7 starts in Columbus before following Perez on the path to TJ-surgery. In just 31 innings, Rondon managed to give up more HRs (12) than he did the entire 2009 season, while allowing opposing batters to tee off on his pitches (8.53 ERA). Rondon will just be 23 in February, but with the Indians lack of starting rotation depth, the injury could not have come at a worse time for Rondon and his chances of joining the rotation anytime in the near future.
4. Jason Knapp (20.2, A-)
Seeing a theme? Knapp has some of the Indians best pure stuff, but didn't make it to the mound until the last 6 weeks of the season. In the 28 innings he pitched he was wild (0.42 BB/IP), but overpowering (1.66 K/IP). 55% of the outs he recorded in his short time came via the K. A good sign going into next season.
5. Kelvin De La Cruz (22.2, AA)
Kelvin is on this list not because he was injured this season, but because he was coming off of an injury-filled 2009. His numbers alone this season would not get him on to any prospect list, but the hope is that this was a recovery year for him and that he will bounce back next season. After beginning the season strong in Kinston, De La Cruz lost his control and strikeout abilities in Akron. He stayed pretty healthy however, meaning next year will be a critical year to evaluate the tall lefty.
6. Joey Mahalic (21.9, A+)
Like De La Cruz, Mahalic was coming off injuries in 2010. Not as projectable as the arms above, Mahalic needs to show he can throw strikes and keep gettting groundballs if he wants to have any path towards the majors as a starting pitcher.
7. Abner Abreu (21.0, A+
Abreu's breakout 2009 season ended with a dislocated shoulder. His 2010 season might as well have never begun. He stayed healthy, but was absolutely miserable at the plate with horrendous peripherals and none of the power he showed a year ago. Shoulder injuries can take time to come back from, so perhaps 2011 will reveal whether Abreu has any prospect in him or not.
This is a tough list. Rondon, Knapp, Perez and De La Cruz were arguably four of the system's top 5 starting pitching prospects coming into 2010. Knapp and De La Cruz should be healthy going into 2011, but both have a fair amount to prove. The timetable for Rondon and Perez is more uncertain.
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According to Tony Lastoria, there was an Adam Miller sighting in Arizona yesterday. He needed 12 pitches to go one scoreless inning with 1 K, topping out at 93.
Championship!
by ken from alexandria on Oct 11, 2010 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
TINSTAAM.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Oct 11, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Which should make him even more difficult to hit!
by mcrose on Oct 11, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That he has made it that far is pretty f-ing incredible. I hope Adam Miller makes it to Cleveland just so I have the opportunity to cheer him on as a major leaguer at least once.
by APV on Oct 11, 2010 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I agree wholeheartedly. Seems I recall that if he does remain healthy this off-season, we’d have to put him on the 40-man to even get the chance to clap?
By the way, wouldn’t Adam Miller make an inspired why-the-hell-not Rule 5 pick for some other team? If he can pitch at all, he can probably pitch in the majors …
Ah, but think of the possibilities – Antonetti’s first roster decision leaves Miller out to be picked up, whereupon…
As far as inspiration for scripts adhering to Tribe cultural ethos, it don’t get much better.
Adam Miller enters the Hall of Fame wearing aHouston AstrosNew York Yankees hat.
Miller, who as a Rule 5 draftee, stunned the baseball world with the comeback story to end all comeback stories, pitched 3 effective seasons for the NL Central Astros, leading them to one Central Division Championship. Known for his signature pitch “The Bird”, in which Miller grips the ball only with his middle finger, he dazzled first as bullpen help and then again as a full-time starter. His success naturally led him to the Big Apple, where the pitching-hungry Yankees snatched up Miller with a 12 year, $282 million deal. Ever dominant
Miller’s first World Series championship with the Yankees was another bitter pill for the awful, terrible, useless city of Cleveland. Miller outdueled former Cleveland ace Fausto Carmona, now pitching for the Atlanta Braves in the clinching game of the 2014 series. Miller went on to dominate the American League, adding 2 Cy Young trophies to his mantle, in addition to 6 consecutive World Series rings for the Bronx Bombers before retiring in 2027.
Miller, in his tender, emotional hall speech, dedicated his comeback and success to his True Yankee teammates among the crowd, most notably Tim Lincecum, David Price, and Carlos Santana. “They just know how to win.”
When asked about his early days in the Indians farm system, Miller just laughed, and said he’d “have a hard time remembering any of those guys I played with.” even though fellow inductee, Edward Mujica, was just standing a few feet away on the same stage.
There. Fixed.
Hope springs eternal.
One time, Adam Miller. We need you more than ever.
Driveline Baseball - Advanced Training for the Baseball Athlete (located in Seattle, WA)
Does Weglarz go on this list? His 2010 (another signficant injury) was more worrisome that his 2009 (performance dip). Ok, not really, but I am more worried about his ability to stay healthy than his ability to hit.
In answer to your question, though, no. Weglarz will be high on the hitting list. He once again had his season cut short, but in this case by a freak diving accident on his non-dominant thumb. Aside from that he hit the ball very well all season, especially his last month in Columbus.
Weglarz has a very strong knowledge of the strike zone. Even when he is struggling to square up the ball (to borrow a very worn out cliche), he is still drawing walks. What seems odd to me is that he struggles at the beggining of each level he is introduced and eventually gets his footing and takes off.
It will be a very intersting April through June with Weglarz, as if he is hitting like he did at Columbus in July, 2010, it would be hard to keep him down in Columbus. Although Injury and poor performance can change things in a hurry, as we Tribe fans are well aware of.
Why is that odd to you? It seems perfectly normal to me.
The ability to make adjustments is a critical and largely unheralded “tool.”
agree Jay, the ability to make adjustments is vital to getting through each level. What is odd is that he has struggled at each level for one reason or another. Most top prospects do face adversity at a level, just not at every one.
I’m sure there are exceptions and maybe he (Weglarz) hasn’t got off to a slow start at a certain level and I’m just not aware of it.
I am a fan who really values guys that can struggle. I often point to the John Hart theory of minor leaguers, and that was he would like to see them struggle and pull themselves out of it several times before getting to the big leagues.
On a side note, I really enjoyed the interview with Antonetti. So many times we only know about a GM or someone in the organization based on sound bytes or statements made regarding a certain “important at the time” event. Kudos to you on a great interview.
Thanks. I made every effort to get him out of sound-bite mode.
As for Weglarz struggling at every level, consider that he was rather young for each level when he got there. He started rookie ball at 17.3 years old, Low-A at 19.3. Advanced-A at age 20.3, Double-A at age 21.3, Triple-A at age 22.5.
At every level except Low-A, he was significantly younger and less experienced than his competition.
Tribe top prospects over the last several years that have struggled upon hitting AA and AAA? Would be interested to see the guys who buried themselves in April through May at each level and turned it on or even had numbers as dismal as Weglarz? Who do you recall that struggled with numbers similar to Weglarz at each level, just curious?
Not diminishing Weglarz in any way, I am a huge believer that he will be here sooner rather than later. Guy is 22 years old (23 this December I believe) and has the ability to draw walks, drive the ball in the alley, and hit for power.
We don’t have monthly splits for players beyond the last few years, and at the moment, we don’t have anything prior to 2010. I’m sure there are examples, and as noted above, I bet you would often find them among the youngest, most talented players who were challenged by their organization.
You want to see a guy struggling, check out Asdrubal at age 20 in Triple-A.
Great point about Asdrubal. Thank you for not taking my comment above as a “challenge you” type question. It is always interesting to see how two different people view the same thing. I am always happy to find out that a preconceived notion that I have is incorrect.
Wegz is also slated to play in Venezuela this winter, with the season beginning today. I don’t know if he’ll see any action right away, but it should give us some indication about the health of his thumb.
Yes. I guess I’m troubled by the parade of injuries all over the kid. Foolish worry?
by dgcambridge on Oct 12, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m confused, is this just a list of injured Indians prospects, or a list of guys that are no longer prospects because of their injuries? I mean, Knapp is definitely still a prospect, right? I must be misreading this.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
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