2010 in Review: Second Base

by Ryan on Oct 24, 2010 11:16 PM EDT in Analysis

Posts in this series:

Team Offense	Team Pitching	Team Defense
Catcher	First Base	Second Base
Shortstop	Third Base	Designated Hitter
Left Field	Center Field	Right Field
Starting Pitching	Relief Pitching

Part I: Review

2010 Overview

The Indians started the season with Luis Valbuena and Mark Grudzielanek sharing time at the position. Grudzielanek was released on June 10th. Just four days later, the Indians claimed Jayson Nix off waivers from Chicago, and a hot start at the plate by Nix won him an everyday job at the position. Asdrubal Cabrera came off the DL on July 20th, so for a short time Jason Donald and Nix shared the position. But then Jhonny Peralta was dealt, and Nix played much of the rest of the season at third, with Valbuena getting playing time in September after Donald injured a finger.

Defense

Like with the shortstops and third basemen, there were several players accruing at least 200 innings at the position. Luis Valbuena led with 581.2 innings at second, not even close to qualifying for comparative fielding categories (about 900 innings). So to lead things off, here's the team positional defensive numbers compared to their AL peers:

Team	Inn	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
Athletics	1431	3.7	5.6	5.2	14.5	12.9
Twins	1452	-2.4	12.4	1.1	11.1	9.9
Blue Jays	1440	1.6	6.9	1	9.5	8.8
Rays	1453	-1.9	10	-2	6.2	6.3
Red Sox	1456	0.9	0.5	-0.6	0.8	0.7
Rangers	1455	-1.5	2.8	-1.5	-0.2	0
Yankees	1442	1.5	-7.5	5.1	-0.8	-1.1
Tigers	1444	2.1	-1.6	-1.6	-1.1	-1.1
Orioles	1436	0.3	-3.3	0.3	-2.7	-2.6
White Sox	1446	0.9	-2.9	-1.3	-3.3	-3.3
Royals	1436	-3.7	0.5	-2.5	-5.8	-4.9
Angels	1449	-2.2	-6.5	1.5	-7.2	-7.1
Indians	1433	0.6	-10.6	2.4	-7.6	-6.2
Mariners	1438	0.6	-6.2	-7.1	-12.6	-12.7

Seattle's low rating was a one-man show (Chone Figgins, who was playing the position after three years as a full-time 3B). The Indians were rated second-to-last, though quite a bit above Seattle, and it was a team effort. Six players manned the position, with four logging 200 innings or more. With most of these guys not having much of a fielding history to draw upon, it's tough to make individual pronouncements, but I feel safe in saying that the defense needs to improve no matter who is playing the position in 2010.

Name	Pos	Inn	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
Luis Valbuena	2B	581	0.5	-3.7	0.7	-2.4	-4.8
Jason Donald	2B	356	-0.1	-3.2	0.4	-3	-10
Mark Grudzielanek	2B	228	0.2	-2.5	0	-2.3	-11.2
Jayson Nix	2B	213	-0.4	-0.6	1.2	0.2	2.4
Drew Suttton	2B	35	0.3	-1	0.3	-0.4	-10.5
Anderson Hernandez	2B	18	0.1	0.4	-0.2	0.2	25.5

I guess the one guy on this list I'm most confident about making a judgment on is Luis Valbuena, who I didn't like at second last year and really didn't like at second this year. I'd place Nix and Donald above Valbuena, and I didn't see much difference defensively between the first two.

Offense

Thanks to the Valbuena/Grudzielanek combo at the beginning of the season, the Indians finished dead last in second base hitting:

Rk		PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1	NYY	705	635	42	3	29	57	78	.321	.382	.534	.915	.328	132	153
2	BOS	724	642	42	2	22	68	120	.260	.332	.435	.767	.286	94	112
3	DET	676	605	35	5	12	53	98	.276	.335	.410	.745	.311	99	107
4	TEX	694	609	33	3	9	66	91	.279	.355	.388	.743	.313	98	107
5	OAK	662	590	30	0	7	54	96	.290	.354	.376	.730	.333	109	104
6	TBR	662	579	32	2	18	56	144	.249	.320	.404	.724	.294	96	101
7	BAL	700	622	26	1	17	60	121	.260	.332	.387	.720	.298	105	100
8	KCR	680	631	25	4	11	38	78	.282	.325	.387	.712	.306	95	98
9	MIN	728	647	32	7	10	64	109	.261	.329	.379	.708	.298	86	97
10	LAA	697	646	40	5	8	35	95	.274	.315	.389	.704	.308	101	96
11	CHW	642	580	27	3	11	43	129	.241	.300	.355	.655	.291	75	82
12	TOR	674	616	25	0	27	44	101	.211	.271	.383	.654	.210	71	81
13	SEA	711	611	21	2	1	74	118	.259	.339	.304	.643	.315	103	81
14	CLE	653	594	25	1	11	46	119	.231	.293	.332	.624	.270	79	74
	TOT	9608	8607	435	38	193	758	1497	.264	.328	.391	.719	.298	96	100

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/24/2010.

The breakdown of that team number into individual player statistics:

Rk		G	PA ▾	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1	Luis Valbuena	71	258	232	11	0	2	20	46	.194	.262	.267	.529	.231	100	48
2	Jason Donald	41	155	142	9	1	2	11	37	.254	.312	.373	.685	.330	99	90
3	Mark Grudzielanek	26	113	104	0	0	0	8	9	.269	.327	.269	.597	.295	98	68
4	Jayson Nix	25	105	95	5	0	7	6	21	.263	.327	.537	.864	.269	152	137
5	Drew Sutton	4	15	14	0	0	0	1	5	.143	.200	.143	.343	.222	-3	-3
6	Anderson Hernandez	2	7	7	0	0	0	0	1	.143	.143	.143	.286	.167	4	-20
	Team Total	162	653	594	25	1	11	46	119	.231	.293	.332	.624	.270	79	74

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/24/2010.

There were some nice individual performances in here, particularly Nix's, so unlike the defensive numbers, the low batting team totals was not indicative of how all the players did.

Valbuena just had a terrible season: posting a 48 OPS+ was quite a difficult feat considering how down the offense was league-wide. Donald did pretty well for his first major-league. Grudzielanek (probably) finished his major-league career with a gigantic thud.

Part II: Looking Towards 2011

Not Coming Back

Anderson Hernanez (Claimed off Waivers, 7-21-2010)

Mark Grudizelanek (Released 6-10-2010)

Gruzielanek was the one free agent dud in Mark Shapiro's last off-season. He was supposed to provide some baseline production in case Valbuena crashed and burned, but he was almost as bad, so the Indians had to look for other options.

Returning

Jayson Nix (Pre-Arbitration) - No Option Years Remaining

Nix for a time was carrying the offense, and playing a decent second base. Then he moved to third, looked really uncomfortable there, and his hitting dropped off towards the end of the season. I think the best thing for Nix would be for the Indians to sign or trade for a starting third baseman, leaving Nix at second base, where he'd most likely share playing time with Jason Donald.

Jason Donald (Pre-Arbitration) - 1 Option Year Remaining

Donald spent the first couple months of his major-league career as a shortstop, which was his position throughout the minors, but I think he looked better at second base. He even held his own at the plate, ending the season with a .253/.312/.378 batting line, which translates to a 94 OPS+. That's definitely acceptable for a major-league second baseman, but he'll have some competition next season, most notably Jayson Nix.

Luis Valbuena (Pre-Arbitration) - 1 Option Year

There's no way the Indians give Valbuena another shot in the majors without a major showing in AAA first. Luis had an awful season at the plate, and didn't look much better in the field.

Drew Sutton (Pre-Arbitration) - No Options Remaining

I think Drew will stick on the roster through the winter, and might have an opportunity to make next year's club as a utility infielder.

In the Minors

Jason Kipnis (Not on 40-Man Roster)

Kipnis had a fantastic season with Akron, and then went off with Columbus in the playoffs. I think the Indians will have him start the season in Columbus, but I don't think there's much keeping him from the majors.

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Comments

So assuming Asdrubal is locked in at SS, LaPorta is the opening day 1B, and no significant infield additions are made in the off-season…what are the possible infield scenarios. Also, it should be pointed out that the Indians don’t really have any prominent position players in need of being rostered before the rule 5 draft (quite a few pitchers, but position players include guys like Goedert, Rodriguez, Mills and McBride…also, do you keep Carlos Rivero on the 40-man).

The moving parts are Valbuena, Donald, Nix, Sutton, Phelps, Goedert, Marte, Rodriguez (competing for the starting 2B, 3B and two backup positions).

Scenario 1:
1B: LaPorta
2B: Nix
SS: Cabrera
3B: Marte
U1: Goedert
U2: Sutton

This is probably the lineup I would like to see, but I doubt it will come to pass. This would put Nix at his preferred position, keep Marte’s glove at 3B, have a competent defensive replacement in Sutton, and a bat in Goedert who could fill in for Marte, LaPorta and Hafner. Problems are that both Donald and Valbuena would be in AAA, and Goedert and Marte’s bats overlap.

Scenario 2:
1B: LaPorta
2B: Donald
SS: Cabrera
3B: Nix
U1: Goedert
U2: Sutton

Assumes Nix can transition to 3B in the off-season. A little bit more defensive flexibility with Nix and Donald, but not necessarily better defense. Obviously Marte is gone, which seems likely, in this scenario.

Scenario 3:
1B: LaPorta
2B: Donald
SS: Cabrera
3B: Phelps
U1: Nix
U2: Goedert

Assumes a rapid transition for Phelps to 3B. Potentially leaves you with really inadequate defense at 3B, in particular, but more generally on the left side of the field (between Nix, Donald and Phelps you basically have three 2B).

Scenario 4:
1B: LaPorta
2B: Valbuena
SS: Cabrera
3B: Marte
U1: Nix
U2: Goedert

Assumes Valbuena looks like he has a clue in spring training. Again the Marte-Goedert problem.

Scenario 5:
1B: LaPorta
2B: Valbuena
SS: Cabrera
3B: Nix
U1: Sutton
U2: Goedert

Sub out Sutton for Marte from the above scenario. It is hard for me to get over the fact that the only scenario I see with an expectation of solid defense at third is Marte starting.

Scenario 6:
1B: LaPorta
2B: Donald
SS: Cabrera
3B: Nix
U1: Rodriguez
U2: Sutton

Has Josh Rodriguez earning a spot in spring training. Easy to forget Rodriguez, but he had a solid 2010 season (.297/.378/.484) playing primarily SS.

Scenario 7:
1B: LaPorta
2B: Donald
SS: Cabrera
3B: Nix
U1: Rodriguez
U2: Goedert

Less defense, more offense.

There are dozens of other iterations, but here are a few general thoughts.

I think the Indians don’t start Phelps in Cleveland. He doesn’t need to be added to the roster and he hasn’t yet had a full season of AAA. They can give him more time and use that roster spot to buy a lottery ticket on someone else for the early part of the season.
I think both Donald and Valbuena can’t start in Cleveland, it has to be one or the other with a strong edge to Donald.
If it is Donald, does he start or is he a backup?
Is Nix really viable anywhere other than 2B?
What about Marte?
I have a feeling Goedert goes into spring training penciled in on the roster. If so, and if he keeps that spot, you can’t really have both Marte and Goedert on the roster, can you?
Is there any scenario by which Josh Rodriguez gets a shot?

by APV on Oct 25, 2010 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

All of these also assume four outfielders – Choo, Sizemore, Brantley + one (I would much prefer a guy like Ezequiel Carrera over Crowe), Santana and Marson at C, and Hafner at DH.

by APV on Oct 25, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Is it at all feasible that Duncan returns next year? Not that he’s great or anything, but I’d like to see a RH hitter in case Brantley still isn’t a legit major league LF, and Hafner needs some days off, and then there’s whatever’s wrong with LaPorta. I guess they could make him the 4th OF, or he would have to look at one of spots assigned to Goedert.

by 7foot3 on Oct 25, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn’t mind have Duncan back, either. I would see him taking the Goedert spot, most likely.

by APV on Oct 25, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I won’t be surprised if Duncan is back. He’s under club control, minimum salary. His only real cost is a spot on the 40-man that could have gone to a prospect, but if they want to upgrade in that roster slot on the big league club, it’s going to cost them a roster spot one way or another.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Is there any scenario by which Josh Rodriguez gets a shot?

If the Indians don’t bring in a utility guy, and Asdrubal gets hurt, maybe.

I do think that a utility infielder who is actually good at shortstop is absolutely necessary for this club. Luis Valbuena cannot be the backup infielder on this team.

by Ryan on Oct 25, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Luis Valbuena cannot be ~~the backup infielder on this team~~ on the major league roster

by JulioBernazard on Oct 25, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Wild guess: Luis Valbuena has a breakout year in 2011.

by odradek on Oct 25, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

With stick, leather, or both?

by JulioBernazard on Oct 25, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Vocally; his debut album is going to top the charts.

Come on, four billion!

by Joel D on Oct 25, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

I hope he tours with Ben Broussard’s outfit.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 25, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Bat. His glove is what it is, which isn’t good.

by odradek on Oct 25, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

So this.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Is there a more depressing site than seeing these names listed together as our 2011 infield options: Laporta, Valbuena, Donald, Nix, Sutton, Phelps, Goedert, Marte, Rodriguez, Cabrera? Ugh. Aside from Cabrera and I suppose Laporta, I’m finding that I just can’t care one way or the other who gets playing time, who gets released, who goes to AAA. Kudos to you and Ryan for summoning the energy to continue to write interestingly about these bums.

by madherb on Oct 25, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know. Perhaps I’m just intrigued by the various possibilities, but I think this group could be serviceable. If Cabrera and LaPorta play at the level they are capapble of, by themselves they can make it an above-average group. Obviously it won’t be truly exciting until we start seeing guys like Kipnis and Chisenhall joining the discussion.

by APV on Oct 25, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn, man, what’s wrong with Donald and Phelps and Asdrubal?

by Jay on Oct 25, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I am probably being too harsh. I don’t expect much from Donald. I actually agree with Adam and Odradek that we could see a bounce back from Valbuena to at least mediocrity. And, yeah, as it always is with prospects, it’ll be interesting to see what we have in Phelps. But as far as the infield goes I can’t help but think this is going to be another really ugly year. There might be a couple slight surprises: a return to form for Asdrubal; a good Garko year from LaPorta (although I’m guessing that will come in 2012 if ever); mediocrity from whomever mans 2nd and 3rd, to be replaced by legitimate prospects as soon as possible; and bad defense no matter how you slice it.

We need stars. I know that statement will be challenged, and deservedly so, but we need at least a few guys in the lineup to put up much better than league average numbers somewhere. It doesn’t appear to me that that will be coming from this bunch, not this year. (I wish I could take back my “bums” comment. I too like most of these guys — well, all but LaPorta.)

by madherb on Oct 26, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I think your middle infield expectations are a bit high. My bigger concern is filling the corner positions with guys that have plus hitting ability.

by Roger Dorn on Oct 26, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s amazing how amazing that would be. Kind of like that whole closer-getting-saves thing.

by Jay on Oct 26, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with you, however, that it’s impressive that Adam and Ryan are writing interestingly about it.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

To me it is the most interesting position(s) to follow in the offseason and try to predict what actions the FO takes. Also, I kind of like a bunch of these guys, even though they’ve all been kind of the suck.

by APV on Oct 25, 2010 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s fascinating. I like #1, though with maybe Donald on the bench instead of Goedert. You wouldn’t have a true 3b as a backup, but Nix/Sutton could cover it. Anyway, it will probably be more like #2.

No chance that they’ll bring in someone else for 3b? I could see them cutting ties with Marte, and having a competition in spring between Nix and the new guy.

I think you’re dead right on Phelps. But I think Goedert is a fringe roster guy, and that’s all he’ll be. He’ll be more J. Brown than A. Marte in terms of playing time. It’d be great if he proves me wrong and hits again next year.

by dgcambridge on Oct 25, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I think there is a good chance someone gets brought in for 3B. I think it is far less likely that whoever is brought in is the clear favorite for the position.

by APV on Oct 25, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

That makes sense, we wouldn’t pay for someone like that. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes in at even odds.

by dgcambridge on Oct 25, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m coming around to Jay’s idea that Nix can be taught to play third with the benefit of a full offseason an spring training.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Oct 25, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

If that’s the case (though I still think they bring in a 3B), I’d go #2 with Duncan replacing Goedert.

However, if they bring in that 3B, then Nix replaces Sutton and it looks something like this:
1B: LaPorta
2B: Donald
SS: Cabrera
3B: TBD
U1: Duncan
U2: Nix

by The DiaTriber on Oct 25, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Shelley D as UI? Does. Not. Compute.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 25, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

All he really has to do is play 1B as Nix and Donald cover 2B, SS, and 3B to varying degrees of effectiveness.

How about 5th OF/RH DH/Back-Up 1B for David S. Duncan?

by The DiaTriber on Oct 25, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

That computes.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 25, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

You really think they bring in a 3B after investing time to teach the position to both Nix and Phelps? What for?

by Jay on Oct 25, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Because the Nix shift might (have) fail(ed). Phelps is just getting started.

by dgcambridge on Oct 26, 2010 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Also because Nix is probably more valuable being the super-utility guy (2B, 3B, occasional corner OF, less occasional DH) than he is as a full-time 3B.

And what Dave said on Phelps, who has 3 E as a 3B in 4 games in the AFL.

by The DiaTriber on Oct 26, 2010 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions

you mean 3 teachable moments, right?

by APV on Oct 26, 2010 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

That’s right, the lessons are coming in bunches at the start.

by The DiaTriber on Oct 26, 2010 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Remember the Chiz? What did he have, like 25 errors in his first six weeks? And then 30 games in a row without an error?

by Jay on Oct 26, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I really love this line; I’m going to have to keep it in my back pocket just in case I ever get back into coaching.

Come on, four billion!

by Joel D on Oct 28, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate this idea to be honest. The guy has been mostly and above average second baseman (defensively) for the majority of his career I don’t see any reason to move him off that position. I find this to be the exact short-sited move the Mariners made with Figgins (just the reverse in regards to the switch).

by hans on Oct 26, 2010 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Sorry this is off-topic, but anyone think like I’m thinking that Farrell chose not to manage the indians (but took the Jays job now) due to the lack of starting pitching talent he perceived in the Indians system – and vice versa for the jays?

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Oct 25, 2010 1:28 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe it had more to do with the talent (and future) he had in Boston?

by Toxicadam on Oct 25, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s how I read it – Marcum, Romero, Cecil, and Morrow with Drabek on the way?
Yeah, I’d take that gig instead of watching the Red Sox pitchers age or taking a chance on Carmona (as he existed last Winter) and the unproven arms (as they existed last Winter) behind him.

by The DiaTriber on Oct 25, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s really hard for me to think that the Blue Jays, in the AL East, have a better shot than we do over the next 7 years or so.

by dgcambridge on Oct 25, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

They’ll probably have a better winning percentage.

by odradek on Oct 25, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Wouldn’t be surprising

by dgcambridge on Oct 25, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

And fewer playoff appearances.

Come on, four billion!

by Joel D on Oct 25, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

They’ll be the best fourth-place team in all of baseball.

"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan

by woodsmeister on Oct 26, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

With a little help, they could leapfrog the Bosox for one season or take out the window-of-opportunity-closing Rays.

by emd2k3 on Oct 26, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

People could have said the same about the Rays, no?

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Oct 25, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Toronto is much bigger market than Cleveland.

by stuart dean on Oct 25, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Vastly more cosmopolitan too, but I’m not trying to look into Farrell’s heart. Fryman will make a better manager anyway.

by jhon on Oct 25, 2010 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Easy call. Given Baseball’s economic structure, if I was a hot commodity like Farrel, I would pass on Cleveland and talk to Toronto.

by stuart dean on Oct 25, 2010 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Heard Farrell on The Fan via SiriusXM on the way to work this morning. During his introductory press conference and a two-on-one interview after, he was asked about turning down previous opportunities. He essentially said the refusals to interview were due to a twofold combo: his private assessment of his own professional readiness to manage and contractual obligations (since ended) to the Red Sox.

by spreidel on Oct 26, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Castro weighs in:

link

Unless something changes via trade or injury, I think Donald’s had the inside track for some time. He wasn’t horrible basically learning a new position in his first stint in the majors, he has a little pop and a decent obp track record in the minors. I think 2B is his to lose.

Going into next year, at least.

by mcrose on Oct 25, 2010 8:46 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, I mean, what do you expect from a second baseman? Donald was pretty damn good for a rookie.

by odradek on Oct 25, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

That’s how I see it. Simply not bombing is pretty good for a rookie, and he definitely didn’t bomb.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

And he broke up a no hitter.

I liked Donald. He never set the world on fire but he was never spectacularly bad either. I’d really like to see him get another shot over Valbuena.

by Brad D on Oct 26, 2010 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions

You guys are underrating Donald.

Adam Miller is healthier than Stephen Strasburg.

by westbrook on Oct 26, 2010 1:56 AM EDT reply actions

what if I said we were underrating Valbuena?

by APV on Oct 26, 2010 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions

He can’t be much worse.

by Roger Dorn on Oct 26, 2010 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions

So he’s gotta be much better?

I just want to believe.

by mjmarble on Oct 26, 2010 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Not what I was implying.

by Roger Dorn on Oct 26, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

My only point is this. What if the Jason Donald we saw in 2010 is the real Jason Donald and the Valbuena was not. Donald, who characteristically has high BABIPs had a .320 average on balls in play in Cleveland last season. His power (.126) was in line with what he has done in the upper minors. His walk rate (6.8%) was down from his best years at AA in 2007 and 2008, but in line with his previous season at AAA. So maybe on the upside he walks a bit more and his power goes up slightly.

Valbuena has also carried high BABIPs throughout his career…until last season. We all saw him struggle mightily with a .241 BABIP, about 75 points below his career norm. His power (.065) took a precipitous decline from not only the previous season, but the upward trajectory he has shown as a prospect going back to 2007. His walk (9.0%) and strikeout (19.7%) numbers were more or less in line with his career norms. So the question for Valbuena is why the sudden hitting struggles? First, his struggles were most noticeable at home (.198 vs. .292 H/R wOBA), and when you look at his home hitting chart (you can find it on MLB’s player page) it appears he got pull happy.

It isn’t a strong case, but I think you can make the argument that Valbuena is a swing correction/plate approach correction away from having considerable upside, whereas Donald is what he is. One could make the counterargument that Donald still is readjusting from his 2009 injury-filled season and that now more than a year removed he will bounce back to his 2008 numbers. I find myself more inclined to believe the Valbuena case for optimism, though. All of which isn’t to suggest Valbuena should start in Cleveland. I think he has “earned” the chance to start in Columbus and show he can play his way back to Cleveland.

by APV on Oct 26, 2010 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Watching Valbuena last season, he sure rolled over on a lot of balls and hit weak grounders to second. Very little lift or drive on the ball. I saw him drive a couple of balls against the White Sox in Chicago—his home and away splits are unusual—so he could still do it. My speculation is coaching, though there is no basis for this whatsoever.

by odradek on Oct 26, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I do think Valbuena will not hit as poorly the rest of the year, but he is near the bottom of the barrel right now. A swing correction might get him closer to Donald, but then we are still not even talking about defense to which I would give Donald the advantage. It’s not really a debate in my mind though, because Donald will start the season in Cleveland based on last year and if we need to make a chance, we will.

My hope of course is that Kipnis is up in June.

by Roger Dorn on Oct 26, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I do think Valbuena will not hit as poorly the rest of the year

Uh, buddy? Our year is over.

Come on, four billion!

by Joel D on Oct 26, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Luis hasn’t made an out in weeks.

by odradek on Oct 26, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually…he is playing for the Cardenales de Lara in the Venezuelan League and is hitting .250/.372/.306 in 11 games

by APV on Oct 26, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

And is THAT the real Valbuena?

by Jay on Oct 26, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Correction: Luis hasn’t made an out in North America in weeks.

by odradek on Oct 26, 2010 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s so wrong that I assume you’re referring to 2011…

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Oct 31, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I have little reason to think that Donald, who has done a fine job adjusting at every level, is now done making adjustments forever. I think he will get better.

Valbuena has lost the benefit of the doubt with me. I don’t know if he’s a guy who could dominate Triple-A well into his 30s, I don’t know if he has some kind of red-light fever or what. But he’s had over 700 PA over the past two seasons — more than Marte has had spread out over four seasons, by the way — and shown absolutely no sign that he can adapt to being a major league hitter.

He’ll be 25 soon and less accomplished than Josh Barfield.

by Jay on Oct 26, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

There is the matter of Valbuena’s 2009 season, which was pretty good. He had 25 doubles in 398 plate appearances in his dreaded age-23 season. This past season he flat-out sucked, but there was the mystery of 2009. I wouldn’t bet the farm on him, but I think he could show some bounce back.

by odradek on Oct 27, 2010 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Barfield had a similar, if not better age-23 season in 2006 for the Padres.

by matt7 on Oct 27, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s true, but what’s the possibility of it happening again?

by odradek on Oct 27, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Oct 31, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

BRUGES.

by afh4 on Nov 1, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

I will now see anything with Colin Farrell in it.

Even Alexander, which was crap.

by emd2k3 on Nov 4, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

It was pretty good, but outside of the slugging, what’s there? The .250 average isn’t dreadful. The .298 OBP is dreadful, however, and an indication that the scouting is going to catch up to the kid awfully fast. Which obviously it did, or his approach collapsed, or whatever.

Bottom line, on balance, the 2009 season was really not that promising, as the OBP was every bit as awful as the ISO was delightful. I was disappointed by his 2009 at the time and concerned that he might not be able to improve much on it.

by Jay on Oct 27, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly. I would say Valbuena’s fundamentals look better.

by APV on Oct 27, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Uh … what?

I’m saying his fundamentals look terrible.

Did you mean to say Donald?

by Jay on Oct 28, 2010 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, I was confused. But I do think Valbuena’s 2009 numbers have better underlying fundamentals than Barfield’s 2006. More power, higher walk rate, less dependent on BABIP, higher LD%.

by APV on Oct 28, 2010 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Talk about damning with faint praise …

by Jay on Oct 28, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

We were excited about Barfield, I think there is still reason to be excited about Valbuena. But he does need to show he can do it in Columbus.

by APV on Oct 28, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

We weren’t excited about Barfield after his second year. Was Valbuena’s second year better?

Valbuena is strictly a depth/utility guy at this point, not just because of his performance but because of his competition. He’s not going to get the first or second opportunity anymore.

by Jay on Oct 28, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I think this year is a big year for sorting things out at 2B and hopefully 3B. Phelps and Kipnis were both great last year, but to many people they were a surprise as well (though perhaps not the Cleveland people who drafted them high). It will be interesting to see how well they maintain their newly elevated status this year. Valbuena clearly isn’t controlling his own destiny at this point, but I think he still has a chance to make an impact. I still view Valbuena’s ceiling, and perhaps this has gone from a 10% to a 2% likelihood, as a Jose Vidro kind of middle infielder. Average defense with plus line drive hitting abilities that in his peak translate to truly plus offense at his position. But obviously he isn’t there right now.

I have to say, one of the things I’m enjoying about this offseason is that I think it is possible to support a lot of different views as to the guys in the organization right now. The discussions, I think, are fun.

by APV on Oct 28, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but he totally took out Miguel Olivo at the plate.

That was cool.

by emd2k3 on Nov 4, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Valbuena and Donald make me think of how we consider rookies. Sometimes (Josh Barfield comes to mind) a good rookie year is the best we see, as the league catches up to a player in his sophomore season. Other times, a rookie busts out of the gate and just gets better. Far more common: A rookie’s first season is mixed, with lots of conspicuous limitations but signs of promise. This is why it seems silly to dismiss Donald or Marson based on their 2010 performances.

by odradek on Oct 27, 2010 7:58 PM EDT reply actions