2010 in Review: First Base

by Ryan on Oct 31, 2010 11:26 PM EDT in Analysis

Posts in this series:

Team Offense	Team Pitching	Team Defense
Catcher	First Base	Second Base
Shortstop	Third Base	Designated Hitter
Left Field	Center Field	Right Field
Starting Pitching	Relief Pitching

Part I: Review

The Indians brought in Russell Branyan to play first base, as Matt LaPorta was coming off two off-season surgeries. But Matt started the season anyways, as Branyan missed most of Spring Training with a back injury. Those two would share the position through the end of June, when the Indians dealt Branyan to Seattle to give LaPorta more playing time. Matt would hold down the position through the end of the season. Three other Indians (Andy Marte, Shelley Duncan, Jordan Brown) would make starts at the position.

Defense

2010 was Branyan's second straight season as a full-time first baseman, and he was decent according to UZR. I thought he looked wooden out there, and should have turned more throwing errors into outs. Matt LaPorta looked better around the bag than Branyan, but he does need to expand his range. Matt is still learning the position, and the two surgeries had to have affected his range in 2010, so I'm less concerned with his defense than the other infielders. In fact, I was actually encouraged how well he took to the position. Now only if his offense was as encouraging.

Name	Pos	Inn	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
Matt LaPorta	1B	791	-0.2	-4.2	1	-3.4	-5.7
Russell Branyan	1B	383	-0.1	4.1	-1.4	2.7	6.1
Andy Marte	1B	168	-0.1	-4.2	0.1	-4.3	-22.3
Jordan Brown	1B	73		0.3	0.3	0.6	11.8
Shelley Duncan	1B	17		-1.1	0.1	-1	-75.5

Offense

But at first base, defense takes a back seat to offense. How did the Tribe first basemen do at the plate?

Because LaPorta got more at-bats than Branyan, the Indians finished towards the bottom of the league in hitting. In most years, having your first basemen post a 70 OPS+ would place you last in the league with room to spare. But not this season, thanks to Seattle, Baltimore, and the post-Teixeira Texas Rangers.

Rk		H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1	DET	193	45	1	41	88	109	.317	.401	.596	.997	.325	163	146
2	CHW	183	34	2	38	70	113	.301	.374	.551	.925	.314	144	129
3	MIN	195	48	4	25	79	111	.313	.391	.523	.915	.347	139	127
4	BOS	168	36	6	24	84	108	.279	.371	.478	.849	.300	115	112
5	KCR	187	45	1	20	70	89	.303	.373	.476	.849	.323	132	112
6	NYY	155	37	0	32	100	121	.249	.361	.462	.823	.259	109	105
7	OAK	160	35	6	12	114	109	.273	.391	.414	.805	.314	130	103
8	LAA	152	27	0	29	44	125	.253	.313	.443	.755	.273	114	87
9	TOR	140	41	2	23	67	147	.239	.319	.433	.752	.279	98	87
10	TBR	109	19	0	31	109	173	.194	.329	.393	.721	.214	96	81
11	CLE	131	28	0	21	66	137	.222	.302	.377	.678	.253	94	70
12	TEX	121	26	0	16	80	143	.214	.310	.345	.654	.255	74	65
13	SEA	135	25	1	17	55	114	.227	.293	.357	.651	.251	104	63
14	BAL	138	32	1	11	53	128	.226	.289	.336	.625	.266	78	57
	TOT	2167	478	24	340	1079	1727	.259	.345	.443	.788	.286	114	97

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/31/2010.

I wasn't able to access the team splits in a table format, so instead, here's the individual lines:

Matt LaPorta

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
as 1B	93	368	325	36	73	15	0	11	37	40	72	.225	.310	.372	.682	.254	104	71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/31/2010.

Russell Branyan

Split	G	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
as 1B	50	197	178	9	0	10	27	0	50	.270	.332	.489	.820	.319	103	103

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/31/2010.

It was a good thing the Indians did bring Branyan in, for if not for him the Indians might have finished last in the league. But Branyan will not be returning, so let's concentrate on the player the Indians are counting on to be a major offensive contributor.

I think it's very probable that the two surgeries had a major affect on LaPorta's offensive game. Not only did he start the season playing with a gimpy hip, he wasn't able to come into the regular season having gotten his normal reps. He also had to deal with a new position and pitchers who now knew his flaws. Because of all these factors, the Indians are giving LaPorta a mulligan for 2010, and hoping that after a normal off-season, Matt will be that promising power hitter in 2011. But there also needs to be a backup plan.

Part II: Looking Towards 2011

Not Coming Back

Russell Branyan (Traded, 6-26-2010)

Branyan was dealt to give Matt LaPorta unfettered at-bats, but he more than served his purpose with the Indians.

Coming Back

Matt LaPorta (Pre-Arbitration) - 1 Option Year Remaining

Matt is going to be the first baseman in 2011, and the training wheels are going to be off. The Indians really need a right-handed power threat, and have envisioned LaPorta as that guy since trading CC Sabathia for him in 2008. He has the ability to hit 25+ home runs a season, but he's going to have to get better with his plate discipline so that he gets opportunities to use that power.

Jordan Brown (Pre-Arbitration) - 2 Option Years Remaining

Brown had a decent season in Columbus, but with his age (26) and place on the defensive spectrum (LF/1B), he needs to be obliterating minor-league pitching to open eyes. Brown could find his way on the roster as a backup first baseman and fifth outfielder, but it's more likely he goes back to Columbus again.

Shelley Duncan (Pre-Arbitration) - No Option Years Remaining

Duncan has played some first base in the majors, but on the Indians, he's a much better fit backing up a left-handed outfield. So I'll cover his 2011 outlook when I get to the outfielders.

Up in the Air

Andy Marte (Arbitration) - No Option Years Remaining

If by some masochistic miracle Marte is on this team next season, he would probably be the primary backup to LaPorta. But that's not happening...right?

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Comments

This is a minor correction, but you have SB listed for Branyan instead of walks. He had 15 to go along with his 50 Ks.

The Indians have to really be hoping LaPorta has a good year next season, because I don’t really see a good backup plan in the system right now.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Nov 1, 2010 9:43 AM EDT reply actions

I actually grabbed the wrong column. Like you said, it should be 15 BB.

The Indians have to really be hoping LaPorta has a good year next season, because I don’t really see a good backup plan in the system right now.

No, I don’t see anyone else in the system that can help next year. If LaPorta gets hurt, I guess Shelley Duncan would be the first baseman. Or (shudder) Jordan Brown.

by Ryan on Nov 1, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

If Seattle signed Andy would this site explode?

by DuffBeer on Nov 1, 2010 10:01 AM EDT reply actions

Yes.

by Ryan on Nov 1, 2010 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions

He may not be a strong enough defensive player for Seattle to be interested in him!

'If I'm not here, 'I'll be somewhere else.'' Andy Marte

by peter m on Nov 1, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

He has too much power.

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Nov 1, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes. That’s more power than one man should have.

by Jay on Nov 1, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

With great power comes great responsibility (like cleaning up sunflower seed shells)

by emd2k3 on Nov 4, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

That week or two where Matty Boom and ’los were both hitting was really exciting.

by JulioBernazard on Nov 1, 2010 1:08 PM EDT reply actions

Matt is very much a player under development. There is absolutely no reason why he shouldn’t blossom as a hitter, soon, as so many other players have. And, more importantly, clubs that rely on in-house development because we cannot compete for FA’s, have to trust in Matts and patiently wait and hope. Our options are limited. Don’t start comparing Matt to players with obvious mechanical issues or other clubhouse issues. This young man is trying hard to succeed and, I believe, he will.

by elsandito on Nov 1, 2010 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

How is this not identical to the arguments for committing to Marte made 2-4 years ago?

by Jay on Nov 1, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Andy is just a couple of seasons away from showing everybody he belongs in the bigs. Another 1200 plate appearances or so.

by odradek on Nov 1, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions

At the rate they’re playing him, that’ll take about seven years. Not exaggerating.

by Jay on Nov 1, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions

At which point it will have been established that he is not a big-league player.

by odradek on Nov 1, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

At which point it will have been established that he won’t have a significant big-league career.

by Jay on Nov 1, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions

That might take a few more years beyond that. But he may just be one of those guys—one of many guys, I must add—who had a few good years but could never put it together. A lot of players had success in the minors but not in the bigs. Marte’s accomplishments in Richmond in 2005 did not indicate he would be a sure thing. He is a failed prospect, as most prospects are.

by odradek on Nov 2, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

You really want to relitigate this? Why?

Marte has never gotten that shot that big-time stars like Valbuena and LaPorta have gotten. End of story.

by Jay on Nov 2, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions

End of story, indeed. I just don’t get all the hand-wringing. Guy never got a fair shot. It’s a familiar tale, peopled by many.

by odradek on Nov 2, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Not really. Not a prospect of this caliber, not in this organization.

by Jay on Nov 2, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I noticed a couple years ago that Marte is like Phil Nevin all over again. Nevin was a former no. 1 pick but was widely regarded as a bust. At age 28 Nevin finally had his shot, and for a few seasons thereafter he was very solid. Nevin went on to hit more than 200 HR in his career.

Who knows if it’ll eve happen for Andy, but I’d wager (a small wager) that he ends up with a career closer to Nevin’s than to Jeff Manto’s.

by jhon on Nov 2, 2010 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Let’s not make the same mistake again!

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Nov 2, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe he’s Phil Nevin, Jr.!

by emd2k3 on Nov 4, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

The hip thing bothers me; someone kept bringing this up (maybe mcrose?)-if the hip was such a problem, why could he rake in Columbus? Is the game that much physically difficult in the majors?

I don’t buy the physical explanation. It doesn’t fit the timeline-he killed Columbus and then came back to Cleveland and cratered.

by afh4 on Nov 1, 2010 3:00 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t know about that last part. The first three/four weeks after he came back from Columbus were his probably his most productive in Cleveland.

Not that I have any better explanation. Looks to me like a guy screwing around with his swing and hobbling like an old man when he’s jogging back to the dugout. Who knows?

by dgcambridge on Nov 1, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

First 19 games back from the minors: .353 / .421 / .618. 17 K in 68 AB, 8 BB in 76 PA. Ridiculous .426 BAbip.

His OPS was 550 before that stretch and 598 after. I’m not sure this really makes me feel better.

HIs first full series back was a four-gamer against Toronto, in which he had exactly one extra-base hit in each game (double, HR, HR, HR). Outside of that series, he had just 24 extra-base hits in 106 games.

by Jay on Nov 1, 2010 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, the toe remains a problem, right? He was swinging like his hip hurt him—all arm swing, with no coordinate action below the belt—and he did have carry on the ball last year. There are two possibilities: either he really sucks, or he has a chronic hip injury, a la Albert Belle and Bo Jackson.

by odradek on Nov 1, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions

But if he has all these injuries, is AAA that much physically easier?

by afh4 on Nov 2, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I think he was feeling better when he was in Columbus. He was sent down to repair his swing, which he did. He came back and was swinging well, and then he started swinging just with his top half.

by odradek on Nov 2, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions