2010 Top Prospects: Hitting Overview
by APV on Nov 22, 2010 6:00 AM EST
in Analysis
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PrintThis is the final installment of the 2010 Top Prospect series. Here is a full set of links to the other pieces.
2010 Top Prospect Series:
| Prequel | Pitching Overview |
| The Down and Out | High Performing Hitters |
| High Performing Pitchers | (sort of) Interesting Hitters |
| Interesting Pitchers | Hitting Overview |
The Indians had one of their better set of offensive performances in their system for awhile. Top prospects Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Weglarz had solid seasons (though not without some injury concerns), while several emerging prospects - Chen, Kipnis, Phelps - had legitimate breakout years. Meanwhile a crop of former prospects led by Jared Goedert did enough to get their name in roster conversations.
Evaluating the success of the positional prospects is less of a challenge than the pitchers, because there is simply less of an injury/flameout possibility with hitters. Also, once established, a young positional prospect gives you a reasonable hope of 3-4+ years of relatively cheap stability at a position. So while the Indians do not have the depth of quality position players that they have of pitchers, this is not necessarily a problem. Having a few guys who have high quality skills at different positions in the high minors and few more in the low minors is really all you need. I think Cleveland has that, but not without a few obvious holes.
The Indians have struggled at developing corner OF prospects with above average offensive projections and above average infield defenders. The OF issue is particularly frustrating, because the team has actually spent quite a few high picks on outfielders.
- Tim Fedroff, 5'11", 220, 21.5 (7th round, 2008)
- Bo Greenwell, 6'0", 185, 18.8 (6th round, 2007)
- Trevor Crowe, 6'0", 190, 21.8 (1st round, 2005)
- John Drennen, 5'11", 195, 18.9 (1st round sup., 2005)
- Roman Pena, 6'0", 190, 18.9 (10th round, 2005)
What all these guys have in common is relatively small frames, no history of plus power, and an inability to play centerfield. Power is one of the last tools to develop, so maybe one of the more difficult to identify in young prospects, but it should have been clear that power was not in the future of this crop. With the exception of Drennen, everyone in this group has a career GB-rate on their balls-in-play over 50%. These are small outfielders who don't get elevation on the ball. They're also not plus defenders. Why are we drafting these guys?
It is one thing to get good production out of traditionally defensive positions (catcher, CF, SS/2B), but that advantage is lost if you aren't actually getting even average production out of the corner positions. And as long as we keep filling our pitching staff with GB-heavy pitchers, we cannot ignore the systemic impact of defense. The last time the Indians drafted someone high in the draft that looked like a major league SS was Zach Sorenson in 1998.
Neither power or defense is something you expect 18-21 year old prospects to have fully developed. Certainly scouts can talk about the tools which might suggest development of above average defense or power, but you are unlikely to see those traits on full display in young players. The Indians failures to produce these kind of prospects cannot just be considered an issue of player acquisition, it must also represent an indictment of the Indians player development system. We always hear about plate approach and consistent baseball fundamentals when the Indians developmental program is discussed, but maybe the organization is missing a few things.
Finally, for a couple of years now I have commented on how boring the Lake County offense has been. This is in part a structural consequence of how the Indians use their system. Most of their top offensive draftees, who are 20-22, make their full-season debut in Kinston, bypassing Lake County altogether. The positional players who end up at LC are the low ceiling guys, or the younger acquisitions (HS draftees and international signings). So while the LC offense might naturally be somewhat weaker, it also reflects the Indians struggles at getting value out of low round positional draft picks and international signees. This is a problem. The outlook looks better next season, but when a minor league franchise goes through a several year stretch without anyone exciting on one side of the ball, that is a problem.
There are too many moving parts to get a really good single view of the Indians positional prospects, but the following table should provide something of a snapshot overview. Not all the entries are equally exciting. The big holes in my mind, as outlined above, are OF, power (DH/1B) and premium defensive infielders.
| Postion |
MLB |
High Minors |
Deep Minors |
| Catcher |
Santana/Marson |
Chen/Perez |
Lavisky |
| 1B |
LaPorta |
McBride/Mills |
Tice |
| 2B |
Donald/Valbuena |
Kipnis |
A. Martinez |
| 3B |
Nix/Phelps |
Chisenhall |
Bellows/Urshela |
| SS |
Cabrera |
Rodriguez/Diaz |
Frawley/Wolters |
| CF |
Sizemore |
Henry/Carrera |
Holt |
| LF |
Brantley |
Drennen/Greenwell |
Washington |
| RF |
Choo |
Weglarz |
Abreu/Moncrief |
| DH |
Hafner |
Goedert |
Romero |
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I have to dispute your claim that “the team has actually spent quite a few high picks on outfielders.” How many outfielder picks have we made in the past five years, in the first five rounds?
2006 — no outfielders in the first 15 rounds.
2007 — no outfielders in the first 5 rounds.
2008 — no outfielders in the first 6 rounds.
2009 — no outfielders in the first 6 rounds, except for Kipnis, who moved to the infield.
2010 — picked LeVon Washington in the second round, no other outfielders until round 9.
So given the pronounced de-emphasis on outfielders, it’s not really surprising that we don’t have impressive up-and-comers on that part of the field.
Now as to that 2005 draft. It’s not news that I never liked the Crowe pick, but he was projected to be legit in center field, and I’m sure they believed they could develop him into a plus defender and a plus baserunner. The one thing you can say for the guy is that he is just as fast as advertised.
The more interesting thing about that draft, though, is that it seems like the Indians went hard for power and pure hitting ability — after Crowe, they drafted only one more up-the-middle player with their next 25 picks. The draft was led by Crowe, Drennen, Head, Weglarz, JLewis, and Jordan Brown. If Weglarz doesn’t break through, it’ll go down as an even less productive draft than 2000.
We can argue about what constitutes “quite a few” and whether or not we should or should not include 2005…but pretty much all the outfielders selected by the Indians in the top 10 rounds of the draft have fallen into the same, perennially disappointing mold. The 2 outfielders selected this year in the top 10 rounds, Washington and Holt, differ only in their athleticism. It would be nice to see them draft (and sign) a guy who really projects as a corner outfielder. Chase Burnette is the only guy drafted this year who fits that description and no one from 2009. I recognize the difficulty in criticizing the Indians approach of developing hitting ability first, and worrying about power later. Fundamentally I agree with that idea. But I think the Indians would benefit by grabbing a few guys each year who don’t fit their mold.
I can’t see categorizing anyone outside the first three rounds as “disappointing” from the perspective of a fan of the big-league club. Do I care if some 8th-rounder flames out in Mahoning Valley or Akron? As an analyst, perhaps, but not as a fan, and not even that much as an analyst. Not to get semantic on you.
The exception, of course, is a flier pick who gets second-round money or better. That guy can still be disappointing. The larger point is that after the first few rounds, it really is about aggregating dozens of lottery tickets, not unlike signing 16-year-olds in Latin America. It’s just not a surprise if you’re not yielding much at a particular position, given only picks outside the first three rounds.
I doubt there’s more than a handful of true power-hitting prospects in any draft, and they have not fallen to us by and large. One of those was LaPorta, and two years later, when his stock had already gone up after the draft, we acquired him. That’s the kind of pick you want, and we grabbed him ex post facto, and yet so far, it’s not working out all that great.
Am I being too reductionist here? Can you show me that the guys you want actually exist?
Am I being too reductionist here? Can you show me that the guys you want actually exist?
The answers to both of those questions might very well be “no.” But I’ll also point to something else I wrote above (emphasis added):
The Indians failures to produce these kind of prospects cannot just be considered an issue of player acquisition, it must also represent an indictment of the Indians player development system. We always hear about plate approach and consistent baseball fundamentals when the Indians developmental program is discussed, but maybe the organization is missing a few things.
I’m not defending their player development, but I don’t see what they’re supposed to be able to accomplish with that little top talent coming into the system.
That adds only two to the pile, unless I’m missing someone:
Tim Fedroff, 7th rounder who got second-round money in 2008
Tyler Holt, 10th rounder who got second-round money in 2010
Fedroff has been a disappointment so far by this standard. He isn’t terrible, but he doesn’t look like more than a fringe major leaguer so far, if that. From a development standpoint, they were tasked with converting him from RF to CF while preparing him for advanced pitching. It’s not like he’s The Natural.
Tyler Holt, too soon to say of course, but he hit pretty well in his debut.
In that draft, if I were looking at OF’s that had some ML projection at Crowe’s pick or later, I would have rather gone with Colby Rasmus, Travis Buck, Brian Bogosevich. Jacob Ellsbury was a much better bet to stick in CF as well.
There were others a little later, like Nolan Reimold, but the above guys were all in consideration for first round picks, and we arguably chose the two least likely to project to regular ML outfielders.
Can you show me that the guys you want actually exist?
Hindsight being what it is, the unfortunate Jason Heyward-Beau Mills situation jumps to mind.
by The DiaTriber on Nov 23, 2010 8:06 AM EST up reply actions
He is. Is that not just another failure (at some level) of our scouting dept though?
Aside from that though, he’s clearly on of the guys APV, and possibly Willis, is talking about.
Our scouting and 28 other teams’ scouting, in particular the 13 teams that picked ahead of us. You can defend Wieters and Price, but the other guys?
Anyway, hindsight. It’s not like we took Crowe that year; there was a legitimate case for Mills.
I honestly have a hard time complaining about the Beau Mills pick. He looked like a beast. As recently as 2008 he looked like he was becoming a good prospect. The only thing close to a legitimate criticism I can make is that his bat speed was never that good, and given his physical traits, that should have been a concern.
by APV on Dec 3, 2010 8:54 AM EST up reply actions
Another perspective on the Heyward-Mills comparison is that most of these guys, Mills or Heyward, turn into nothing. If we consider the two the same type of young, high power potential guys (obvious differences in athleticism aside), probably 2 out of 3 even 1st round picks of this type are going to turn into nothing. All you have to do is look at Atlanta’s other drafts of the decade and look at the top high school players they took. The only other hitter who has done anything is Jeff Francouer.
by APV on Dec 3, 2010 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
It is an interesting comparison. Mills was only facing NAIA competition, but on the other hand, he obliterated it — 38 HR, which is the NAIA record. More to the point, Heyward was only facing high school competition.
Mills hadn’t yet turned 21 when he was drafted, so he represents an early example of the Indians’ attempts to kind of split the difference on high school vs. college players.
Mills was also rated the #87 prospect in the world by BA the following winter, before he ever stepped to the plate in the minors (something you can’t say for Crowe, for example, or all but a handful of 2007 first-rounders), so he was considered a very heavy draft prospect. Then again, Heyward was ranked #28, with the comment: “14: Picks he lasted in the 2007 draft, a number we never may be able to fully explain.”
My guess is that the Indians went with the guy for whom they had more information — not just stats, but all types of information — because it made him less of an unknown, and that was Mills. This should not be confused with any kind of upside/low-risk strategic dichotomy.
by Jay on Dec 3, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
The Crowe/Drennen draft was especially disconcerting from a player projection p.o.v – guys whose most likely future sees them moving from CF, where they were fringe (Drennen) and avg (Crowe) projections to stick – to LF, which they are completely unsuited for at the ML level.
They were great picks to maximize the chance of good A ball performance. And that was my feeling through much of the Mirabelli drafts – we were drafting guys that had a good chance to make a “smooth transition” to minor league ball, while the primary question of “how do they project as big leaguers” seemed to take a back seat.
Wow, when is the last time the Indians drafted and developed a corner-type outfielder? Are we going back to Manny and Brian Giles? I can’t seem to find anything even close to an impact outfielder since then. Just some Jody Geruts and Ryan Church’s sprinkled about. Am I missing anyone? That’s a real indictment. How in the world have we contended at all? Thank god that Seattle has been able to acquire players for us.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Nov 22, 2010 9:22 PM EST reply actions
It does make that window of time when we produced Belle, Thome, Ramirez, Giles (sort of) and Sexson all the more extraordinary
There you have it. We’re developing a slew of fourth outfielders when we should be looking for guys with big upsides. All this sabermetrics stuff just doesn’t seem to be doing that for us, does it?
Our best players wear suits.
You don’t think they’re looking for guys with big upsides?
How many Thomes have been in the last five drafts? Where were they drafted? Did we have those picks?
You don’t think they’re looking for guys with big upsides?
Up until the Chisenhall pick I’d say that they’ve been going for the “safe” pick. Guys like Sowers and Mills.
Dunno about another Thome – after all he was under everybody’s radar seeing as how he was drafted in the thirteenth round. Belle’s a better example – drafted in the second round after being passed over by almost every other team in the majors because of his “personality”. Picking Belle was an “out on a limb” move, with a big unside. Chisenhall is similar but not matching. Hopefully this in indicative of things to come.
Our best players wear suits.
Mills was not a safe pick. Drafted at age 20 out of Juco where he wasn’t playing against real competition. It was a raw talent pick, not a “look what he’s done” pick.
We can all agree that we hope the recent drafting is as successful as it looks.
Another reason to select a “safe” guy rather than an “upside” guy is that the “safe” guy will arrive sooner — Sowers ended up disappointing, but he was contributing to the big-league club just two years after he was signed. It took Thome four years, and he was seen as “rocketing” through the minor leagues.
When Thome was picked in 1989, there wasn’t much reason to worry about whether a guy would contribute within 3-4 years.
More to the point, Thome was picked in the 13th round! The Indians have selected plenty of “all upside” guys in the 10th round or later, but almost none of those picks pan out — for ANY team.
Matt LaPorta and Prince Fielder were both selected #7 overall in the draft. If someone can tell me the right strategy for selecting a future HOFer in the draft after every team has passed on the guy 12 times, I’d love to hear it.
Darn tootin! That The feast or famine part I get, and a 4-6 year swing is the fickle nature of the draft. But nobody in almost 20 years? In 4 drafts from ’87-91 we produced Belle, Thome, Giles, and Ramirez. Take that Core Four. Listening to Yankee fans claim how they developed the key players of their championship years is nauseating. If we had unlimited resources to keep our core four, and add around them every year, we smoke them.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Nov 23, 2010 7:29 AM EST up reply actions
’87 to ’91 is actually five drafts.
I think you would have trouble finding more than a handful of other examples of four hitters of that caliber being drafted by one team in a five-year period. It may or may not have been a different strategy, but it definitely was a historically unusual result. There is no strategy for it.
Math challenged. I screw up the centuries too.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Nov 23, 2010 8:08 AM EST up reply actions
Giles has to be pretty high up on the list of “greatest players who were only All-Stars twice.” The guy had a 1000 OPS for about seven years and was a very good defender, too.
Take a gander at his minor league stats! He had over three thousand plate appearances. He was ready at 23 at AAA (313/390/479). So we marinate him for almost two more years and 850 minor league PAs, and he’ s crushing it. Then he hits the majors and crushes it too at age 25, (355/434/612) in 143 PAs. All he had to do was beat out Belle, Lofton and Manny. That we were spoiled is an understatement.
Imagine the riots on LGT if we traded him today for Ricardo Rincon.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Nov 23, 2010 8:43 AM EST up reply actions
the most recent corner outfielder drafted and developed by the Indians was Luke Scott who was taken in the 9th round of the 2001 draft. He was a college outfielder from Oklahoma and he got to AA with Cleveland prior to being dealt.
His 2004 season between Kinston/Akron had a slash line of .287/.388/.555 with 27 HR and 97 RBI. After the 2004 season, the Indians gambled and dealt Scott to Houston for Jeroime Robertson who was coming off a David Huff like season of 15-9 season with an ERA of 5.10 and 5.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and a WHIP of 1.519. Robertston was only able to pitch 160 innings in 31 starts (a tic over 5 innings per start!).
As a matter of interest, when looking at the theTribe drafts from 1999-2006, the total WAR value accumulated by Tribe draft picks in a Cleveland uniform is 7.9. Overall, the draft picks have a combine WAR value of 71.9 (whether they ever signed or appeared in a Cleveland uniform).
What about Brad Snyder, who was drafted 18th overall in 2003. He might have played center, but he was a big, strong guy who looked like he’d end up on one of the corners. Looked like a good pick at the time. Bogalusa Bomber, this is really a reply to you.
by ken from alexandria on Nov 23, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
I did like Brad Snyder. He got injured in 2007, right when he should have been on the cusp of the majors, and then responded with a terrible 2008. You have to wonder if that injury wouldn’t have happened…
Completely forgot about Brad Snyder. Decent numbers, didn’t walk much, with an alarming number of strikeouts—two minor league seasons of 158 strikeouts apiece. Averaged about a strikeout an inning, which would likely increase in the big leagues. He might get up there in Mark Reynolds territory.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Nov 24, 2010 7:00 AM EST up reply actions
Math challenged. I screw up the centuries too.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Nov 23, 2010 8:07 AM EST reply actions
Just asking.
If the ground ball strategy is so important, why do we need corner outfielders that can hit 30+ dingers a year? What would be so wrong with 3 outfielders in the Choo mould, i.e. guys that get around fairly well on defense, have nice arms, and hit reasonably well?
The idea that there is a pool of potential mlb power hitters, who won’t drag you down defensively, to be chosen from in any one draft just seems like a tall order. Getting even one like that, who will make it all the way to the bigs, even every 5 years, would seem to be more about good fortune than anything else.
Maybe I am reading too much into it, but it seems like the big question here is why don’t we have more MVP candidates in our outfield. The answer to that seems to be, because there are only a couple of these guys in the league any given year, and they don’t all play outfield. Why should we think that they should be here?
Every pessimist thinks himself a realist. In the case of Cleveland sports fans, they are probably right.
Are you suggesting that players like Choo aren’t just as scarce? Of course they are. There aren’t five more guys like him in the whole league.
Healthy Grady is pretty Chooish. I would be willing to see him in left and someone with a little less power, but healthy legs, in center.
I guess I am suggesting that Choo-like players are less scarce than MVP types. They don’t have to be clones of him, just plus defenders who can bat well enough not to hurt the team.
Not to mention that as good as he is, he looked quite a bit better given the lot that we had patrolling the rest of the outfield. How sad is it that 22 homers and the same number of stolen bases led this team? Pretty damn depressing I think, but things would be quite a bit rosier if two more guys were out there with roughly the same numbers.
Career OPS of .880? I would accept 100 less than that without question, and that list is quite a bit longer.
Every pessimist thinks himself a realist. In the case of Cleveland sports fans, they are probably right.
20-20 players are more common than serious MVP candidates. Do you really think Choo put up an MVP like campaign this year? 20-20 is not that rare, probably 8-12 guys make it, even in bad years.
But,
My point is that it doesn’t have to be 20-20 exactly. If Choo kept those numbers up consistently, maybe he is the overall best of the three. I think it could be 15-15, or 10-30 and still be fine, provided they all regularly get on base and play above average defense in one way or another (they don’t all have to have a cannon like Choo’s, but maybe they move around better, or get exceptionally good jumps).
I just wonder why we need to be locked into the idea that corner outfielders need to be top-flight power hitters, because guys like Choo aren’t really. Despite that, having two more (at least 3/4) Choos sounds pretty good to me. The game is about scoring more runs than the other guys. There is more than one way to do that.
Every pessimist thinks himself a realist. In the case of Cleveland sports fans, they are probably right.
Do you really think Choo put up an MVP like campaign this year?
According to Fangraphs numbers he was 8th in WAR in the AL, according to B-Ref he was 2nd. So yes, I do think he put up an MVP caliber season.
I wrote a long reply earlier that somehow failed to make its way through the internets intact. To shorthand it in a way that I hope doesn’t sound too dismissive:
WAR is cool, but it is one stat.
8th one way and 2nd another shows that it shouldn’t be the end all, be all for MVP.
The crucial component to WAR, comparing someone to others that play the same position, is important but not the most important factor for MVP.
Being the MVP on any team is a great achievement, but being the MVP on this team is not the same thing as being the MVP of the league.
It is fantastic to even appear on any MVP ballots and the fact that Choo had such a season is one of the few highlights for us this year.
There is a reason why he didn’t get a single first place vote though, and that is not because the voters had never heard of WAR.
Every pessimist thinks himself a realist. In the case of Cleveland sports fans, they are probably right.
It is funny how you’re kind of arguing against yourself here. You accuse others of insisting that we need to have an elite power hitter in RF. Yet you yourself can’t seem to accept that Choo is an elite all-around player, because he’s a RF who isn’t an elite power hitter.
By the way, there were exactly three 20-20 men in the AL this year, and four in the NL. Fairly scarce.
It’s a very old phenomenon that players who bring great all-around skills to the table, leading the league in no one stat, end up being underrated. You’ve fallen into that trap. Choo isn’t just a nice player, he’s 10th in WAR over the past three seasons (despite playing only 94 games in 2008).
Behind Choo on that list: Jeter, Hamilton, Morneau, Teixeira.
Choo’s been in the top 10 in OPS+ the last two years, joined by only Mauer and Cabrera. In 2008, he came up at the end of May, and his 2/3 season OPS+ of 151 was topped only by Milton Bradley, of those players getting 300 or more PAs.
Don’t undervalue him: Choo’s an elite player.
by YoDaddyWags on Nov 24, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
I agree, and I don’t believe that I undervalue him.
I am stoked that we have him and the other guys don’t. Recall that I was saying I wish we had two more like him that were even 3/4 as productive.
Choo is an elite player, but I don’t think he is an MVP caliber player, at least not yet. He probably has 3-6 years before his production falls off markedly, and he may even improve in the next couple. Maybe then he finishes in the top 3 or 4 in the MVP voting and I change my position.
Every pessimist thinks himself a realist. In the case of Cleveland sports fans, they are probably right.
Maybe we start a website. “BillBavasiForTheRoyals.com”. All those perfectly good prospects wasting away in the minors. Something should be done about it.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Nov 23, 2010 8:46 AM EST reply actions
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