What Is Asked of Cliff

by afh4 on Nov 29, 2010 11:14 PM EST in Analysis

Cliff Lee is a very big deal these days. Sometime soon, probably in the next week, he'll sign a huge, huge contract and be expected to perform at any incredibly high level. What level, exactly, are his future employers going to expect? And what are they likely to get?

In 2008, Cliff Lee became one of the best pitchers in baseball. Since that time, he's pitched remarkably well, averaging 222 innings pitched with an ERA+ of 142. This puts him as one of the clear-cut best pitchers of that three-year run:

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	From	To	Age	GS	CG	SHO	W-L%	H	R	BB	SO	ERA	HR
1	Roy Halladay	157	735.2	2008	2010	31-33	98	27	10	.652	685	244	104	633	2.67	64
2	Felix Hernandez	155	689.0	2008	2010	22-24	99	10	2	.594	592	246	221	624	2.69	49
3	Tim Lincecum	152	664.2	2008	2010	24-26	98	7	4	.690	544	225	228	757	2.83	39
4	Johan Santana	143	600.0	2008	2010	29-31	88	7	4	.615	541	208	164	496	2.85	59
5	Cliff Lee	141	667.1	2008	2010	29-31	93	17	5	.658	654	240	95	536	2.98	45
6	CC Sabathia	139	720.2	2008	2010	27-29	103	14	6	.695	629	273	200	645	3.07	57
7	Jon Lester	139	621.2	2008	2010	24-26	97	6	2	.685	555	239	213	602	3.29	48
8	Ubaldo Jimenez	135	638.1	2008	2010	24-26	100	6	2	.590	529	257	280	584	3.43	34
9	Zack Greinke	133	651.2	2008	2010	24-26	98	10	3	.549	616	265	162	606	3.25	50
10	Matt Cain	131	658.2	2008	2010	23-25	100	9	3	.515	571	252	225	534	3.27	63
11	Dan Haren	129	680.1	2008	2010	27-29	101	6	2	.583	641	279	132	645	3.47	77
12	Ryan Dempster	129	622.0	2008	2010	31-33	98	3	1	.614	568	279	227	567	3.49	61
13	John Danks	125	608.1	2008	2010	23-25	97	2	1	.563	555	256	200	470	3.61	61
14	Cole Hamels	122	629.2	2008	2010	24-26	98	5	4	.529	584	258	157	575	3.46	78

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/29/2010.

Lee is unique within that group in that he's coming to market this year; nearly all of the others listed are signed through at least 2013. Reasonably, Cliff's future employer will want him to be one of the very best pitchers in baseball. Using some stupidly quick and dirty guesswork, let's say that Lee will be expected to pitch a minimum of 180 innings a year with an ERA+ of 130. This doesn't strike me as a overly-demanding; it's below the baseline that Lee himself has established.

How realistic of an expectation would that be, though? Since integration, only 28 left-handed starters Lee's age have met that standard for even one season (about 45 righties have pulled this off):

Rk		Yrs	From	To	Age
1	Randy Johnson	4	1997	2000	33-36	Ind. Seasons
2	Tom Glavine	3	1998	2002	32-36	Ind. Seasons
3	Steve Carlton	3	1977	1981	32-36	Ind. Seasons
4	Al Leiter	2	1998	2000	32-34	Ind. Seasons
5	Tommy John	2	1977	1979	34-36	Ind. Seasons
6	Curt Simmons	2	1961	1963	32-34	Ind. Seasons
7	Andy Pettitte	1	2005	2005	33-33	Ind. Seasons
8	Kenny Rogers	1	1998	1998	33-33	Ind. Seasons
9	Jamie Moyer	1	1998	1998	35-35	Ind. Seasons
10	Chuck Finley	1	1998	1998	35-35	Ind. Seasons
11	Jeff Fassero	1	1996	1996	33-33	Ind. Seasons
12	David Wells	1	1995	1995	32-32	Ind. Seasons
13	Frank Viola	1	1993	1993	33-33	Ind. Seasons
14	Mark Langston	1	1993	1993	32-32	Ind. Seasons
15	Jimmy Key	1	1993	1993	32-32	Ind. Seasons
16	John Tudor	1	1988	1988	34-34	Ind. Seasons
17	Larry Gura	1	1980	1980	32-32	Ind. Seasons
18	Jerry Koosman	1	1979	1979	36-36	Ind. Seasons
19	Mike Cuellar	1	1969	1969	32-32	Ind. Seasons
20	Bob Veale	1	1968	1968	32-32	Ind. Seasons
21	Whitey Ford	1	1962	1962	35-35	Ind. Seasons
22	Don Mossi	1	1961	1961	32-32	Ind. Seasons
23	Warren Spahn	1	1953	1953	32-32	Ind. Seasons
24	Eddie Lopat	1	1951	1951	33-33	Ind. Seasons
25	Max Lanier	1	1950	1950	34-34	Ind. Seasons
Rk		Yrs	From	To	Age
26	Preacher Roe	1	1949	1949	33-33	Ind. Seasons
27	Ken Heintzelman	1	1949	1949	33-33	Ind. Seasons
28	Harry Brecheen	1	1948	1948	33-33	Ind. Seasons

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/29/2010.

Even more disturbingly, only six players met those benchmarks in more than a single season. The obvious response is that, well, how many of the guys on that list were ever as good as Lee has been from 28-31? Fair enough. But, it's obvious that achieving the standard we've set (180 IP, 130 ERA+) are much easier when a player is younger. Again, the lef-handers that did it, but this time from 27-31 (to mirror the imaginary 32-36 contract I've put on Lee):

Rk		Yrs	From	To	Age
1	Sandy Koufax	4	1963	1966	27-30	Ind. Seasons
2	Cliff Lee	3	2008	2010	29-31	Ind. Seasons
3	Johan Santana	3	2006	2010	27-31	Ind. Seasons
4	Tom Glavine	3	1995	1997	29-31	Ind. Seasons
5	Frank Viola	3	1987	1990	27-30	Ind. Seasons
6	Gary Peters	3	1964	1967	27-30	Ind. Seasons
7	CC Sabathia	2	2008	2010	27-29	Ind. Seasons
8	Randy Johnson	2	1993	1995	29-31	Ind. Seasons
9	Chuck Finley	2	1990	1993	27-30	Ind. Seasons
10	Mark Langston	2	1989	1991	28-30	Ind. Seasons
11	Teddy Higuera	2	1986	1988	27-29	Ind. Seasons
12	Charlie Leibrandt	2	1985	1987	28-30	Ind. Seasons
13	Ron Guidry	2	1978	1979	27-28	Ind. Seasons
14	Whitey Ford	2	1956	1958	29-31	Ind. Seasons
15	Jonathan Sanchez	1	2010	2010	27-27	Ind. Seasons
16	Wandy Rodriguez	1	2009	2009	30-30	Ind. Seasons
17	Joe Saunders	1	2008	2008	27-27	Ind. Seasons
18	Erik Bedard	1	2007	2007	28-28	Ind. Seasons
19	Jarrod Washburn	1	2002	2002	27-27	Ind. Seasons
20	Mike Sirotka	1	2000	2000	29-29	Ind. Seasons
21	Mike Hampton	1	2000	2000	27-27	Ind. Seasons
22	Denny Neagle	1	1997	1997	28-28	Ind. Seasons
23	Al Leiter	1	1996	1996	30-30	Ind. Seasons
24	Kenny Rogers	1	1995	1995	30-30	Ind. Seasons
25	Greg Swindell	1	1992	1992	27-27	Ind. Seasons
Rk		Yrs	From	To	Age
26	Jimmy Key	1	1991	1991	30-30	Ind. Seasons
27	Zane Smith	1	1990	1990	29-29	Ind. Seasons
28	Bruce Hurst	1	1989	1989	31-31	Ind. Seasons
29	Bob Ojeda	1	1986	1986	28-28	Ind. Seasons
30	John Tudor	1	1985	1985	31-31	Ind. Seasons
31	Mike Flanagan	1	1979	1979	27-27	Ind. Seasons
32	Jon Matlack	1	1978	1978	28-28	Ind. Seasons
33	Mike Caldwell	1	1978	1978	29-29	Ind. Seasons
34	Doug Rau	1	1976	1976	27-27	Ind. Seasons
35	Steve Carlton	1	1972	1972	27-27	Ind. Seasons
36	Wilbur Wood	1	1971	1971	29-29	Ind. Seasons
37	Sam McDowell	1	1970	1970	27-27	Ind. Seasons
38	Fritz Peterson	1	1969	1969	27-27	Ind. Seasons
39	Chris Short	1	1967	1967	29-29	Ind. Seasons
40	Jim Kaat	1	1966	1966	27-27	Ind. Seasons
41	Juan Pizarro	1	1964	1964	27-27	Ind. Seasons
42	Jim O'Toole	1	1964	1964	27-27	Ind. Seasons
43	Billy Pierce	1	1958	1958	31-31	Ind. Seasons
44	Harvey Haddix	1	1953	1953	27-27	Ind. Seasons
45	Hal Newhouser	1	1948	1948	27-27	Ind. Seasons
46	Eddie Lopat	1	1947	1947	29-29	Ind. Seasons

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/29/2010.

There's hope for Lee in this table, obviously-he's one of the few pitchers to ever put up a run like this from 27-31, and those in his immediate cohort include the champions of the first list: Glavine and Johnson.

If we try to allow for the standards to be relaxed in a given season, but still meet minimums of 600 IP and 130 ERA+, as well as including both righties and lefties between 30 and 36, the list is even more indicative of the players that Cliff Lee's being compared to:

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	From	To	Age	GS	CG	SHO	W-L%	H	R	BB	SO	ERA	HR	Tm
1	Randy Johnson	170	1425.1	1994	2000	30-36	194	50	20	.740	1098	494	471	1914	2.75	130	SEA-TOT-ARI
2	Kevin Brown	159	1497.2	1995	2001	30-36	213	32	11	.654	1266	503	340	1279	2.65	84	BAL-FLA-SDP-LAD
3	Greg Maddux	158	1629.2	1996	2002	30-36	238	32	14	.676	1523	565	244	1170	2.76	102	ATL
4	Roy Halladay	146	961.0	2007	2010	30-33	129	34	11	.661	917	345	152	772	2.91	79	TOR-PHI
5	Chris Carpenter	145	912.1	2005	2010	30-35	132	16	8	.711	793	321	200	730	2.88	67	STL
6	Bob Gibson	145	1892.0	1966	1972	30-36	227	152	36	.650	1513	575	527	1576	2.42	94	STL
7	David Cone	143	1323.0	1993	1999	30-36	189	22	7	.653	1085	522	525	1193	3.27	120	KCR-TOT-NYY
8	Roger Clemens	141	1431.1	1993	1999	30-36	207	26	11	.605	1214	581	550	1443	3.38	106	BOS-TOR-NYY
9	Curt Schilling	141	1597.2	1997	2003	30-36	217	52	11	.631	1406	600	312	1742	3.23	183	PHI-TOT-ARI
10	John Tudor	138	1160.1	1984	1990	30-36	169	29	13	.661	1032	386	267	606	2.66	87	PIT-STL-TOT-LAD
11	Pedro Martinez	136	1089.2	2002	2008	30-36	171	10	2	.672	911	435	285	1136	3.30	103	BOS-NYM
12	Tom Glavine	135	1623.2	1996	2002	30-36	243	19	9	.659	1525	637	561	1023	3.21	134	ATL
13	Gaylord Perry	132	2248.2	1969	1975	30-36	272	174	31	.574	1912	816	608	1526	2.78	174	SFG-CLE-TOT

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/29/2010.

There will be plenty of mathematical formulae put to work in the next month to show us what Lee will have to do, in terms of wins or value added to a team, in order to live up to his eventual mega-contract. However, when we look at this using some straight forward counting stats, it's clear that Lee is going to have a great deal to live up to in the mind of the reasonably well-informed fan (and, perhaps, in the mind of his not particularly statistically-inclined bosses). He will be asked to pitch at a hall of fame level at an age when very, very few pitchers, and left-handers particularly, are able to do so. Those that do are, essentially by definition, hall of famers. In choosing to pay out the nose for Cliff Lee, some team will be betting that he's a guy headed for Cooperstown, like Randy Johnson or Steve Carlton, as opposed to Frank Viola. Though, if Viola ends up what Lee is, that's not all bad.

The reason I wanted to pull these benchmarks up and to see which players had reached them was because most people are going to be valuing Lee off these kinds of comparisons. There are huge holes in this style of analysis from the perspective of either a logician or a mathematician but, for better or worse, this is largely the type of analysis (combined with his eventual team's playoff performance) that will determine whether Cliff Lee and his contract are eventually deemed a success. When you recognize who he's being compared to, it becomes obvious how intense the pressure on Lee is going to be. Not that pressure has ever bothered him before.

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Comments

Color me confused again. You paint a picture of left handed pitchers being less effective than right handers. But, left handed pitchers are prized by baseball people. I cannot imagine why lesser performing players would be viewed as more valuable?

by elsandito on Nov 30, 2010 8:47 AM EST reply actions

Because left-handers are rarer than right-handers, southpaws who would never even sniff the majors had they been right-handed have long major-league careers. That isn’t why clubs are after Cliff Lee, though, since he’s not that more effective against left-handed hitters (the usual reason why clubs want at least one southpaw in their rotation).

by Ryan on Nov 30, 2010 9:43 AM EST up reply actions

I think the Yankees can afford to temper their Lee expectations. If they get Frank Viola, that would be reasonable for them.

by emd2k3 on Nov 30, 2010 10:11 AM EST reply actions

Should edit to mention the 32-36 age range for that 2nd chart

by Matt in LA on Nov 30, 2010 1:38 PM EST reply actions

Should I be troubled Bucs Dugout is having a much more active off-season post and comment-wise?

Of course, they use subject lines (as if!) and have more idiotic comments per post, but we’re getting beat by Pirates fans? I didn’t even realize there were actual Pirates fans!

by emd2k3 on Nov 30, 2010 5:09 PM EST reply actions

I don’t believe it. as far as I’m concerned the pirates are a puppet organization run by the rest of the NL central in order to pad their records. they also run that site to make the team look like it has fans.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Nov 30, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Indians fans are still jet-lagged from following Choo’s exploits in the Asian games.

'If I'm not here, 'I'll be somewhere else.'' Andy Marte

by peter m on Nov 30, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

That would explain why they let Huntington run the team.

by Jay on Dec 1, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting. Thanks, Andrew.

I just want him to sign already, I’m as sick of the Cliff Lee talk as I am the Lebron talk. It’s disgusting that all the talking heads talk about the Yankees “needing” Lee without a hint of irony in their voices or without mentioning how absolutely absurd it is that a team with that high of a payroll is ever in a position to “need” any single player.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Dec 1, 2010 10:06 AM EST reply actions