C. Perez, J. Lewis Qualify for Super Two
Perez will end up getting a healthy raise. Not sure what this is going to mean for Jensen.
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Seems to just make it more likely Lewis won’t be around for long. Kind of sucks about Perez, though.
2 years, 122 days is a lower cutoff point than in previous years. Might be the lowest ever.
Still, at 136 and 133, both of these guys had to be considered likely to be over the line, so it’s clear the Indians made a conscious decision not to worry about their service time — though for opposite reasons.
So do you, and others, think Jensen Lewis will have any trade value? Should we anticipate he will be either waived to make room for a prospect in the next two weeks, or will the Tribe field offers until the non-tender deadline?
And how much could Lewis command in arbitration anyway? I suppose the key issue is not the money, but that he is out of options.
by Deep South Ken on Nov 8, 2010 5:32 AM EST up reply actions
On how much — I think $1 M is possible, but probably the ceiling. Could be as little as the 640 K that Brandon League agreed to after 2009.
Yeah, it’s going to be on the low side of that.
I think we should DFA him.
by Jay on Nov 8, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
It’s only going to get lower and lower as more teams try to avoid it. Well, it would if the CBA wasn’t expiring soon.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Nov 8, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
I’d have thought that woudl have already happened.
I think it’s getting lower as rosters get younger. What we’re seeing this year may in part be a reaction to so many veterans getting the boot starting in 2009.
by Jay on Nov 8, 2010 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Well, with Bobby Cox gone, you can probably add another team to the list.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Nov 8, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously? I’ve thought of the Braves as one of the gutsier teams in terms of putting prospects into key roles in the majors. Maybe you’re thinking of Torre?
That’s what I meant. The Braves rarely seemed to care about a player’s Super Two status, like with Heyward. They were one of the teams keeping the cutoff later.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Nov 9, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
If an extra $300K or so is what makes us get rid of Jensen, maybe Dolan really is cheap.
Adam Miller is healthier than Stephen Strasburg.
Yes, but that is a different argument—$300K has nothing to do with being replaceable. If the latter is the reason we get rid of him, fine.
Adam Miller is healthier than Stephen Strasburg.
Of course 300K has something to do with it. If you think you can grab someone else on a minor league deal, use him in the majors for only three months and pay less money, then obviously that would be a better value. It’s one thing to pay 400K for a guy who’s marginal and out of options, quite another to pay 700K for the same thing.
What if it were $3 million — would that make a difference? Obviously. So it’s really just a question of where the line is for any given player.
I see his point. 300k is a number that is fairly low in this day for any live experienced arm. You could look at this sum as a form of insurance against other worst case scenarios.
But, really, how much of an insurance policy is Lewis? Is he any higher than 5th in the bullpen depth chart? And being out of options, it’s not like you can stash him in AAA, just in case.
I’m responding to both comments here. Yes, I realize it’s 700k. The marginal expense is there because you are dealing with a known quantity. It isn’t a highly valued known quantity. I’m talking about worst case scenarios, which is why one adds insurance. 2 BP guys come out of Arizona on the DL. One guy suddenly cannot find the plate. A starter hurts himself. The chance of all this going wrong at once is small. The options become, do we promote a AAA guy for the minimum or would it be better to have this guy in reserve? Ordinarily, I would say who cares, but we are only considering a difference of 300k. What can you get for 300k these days in additional player value?
A known quantity? How is he any more known than 50 other marginal big-league relievers?
by Jay on Nov 9, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
I suspect we’ll keep him, by the way. I’m just saying, if we don’t, it won’t be because of “cheapness.” It’ll be because we think we can — and will — spend the money elsewhere more effectively.
by Jay on Nov 9, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t buy the cheapness reason either. I have no real position on keeping him. I’m not a big fan of JL. I’d like to give some of the other young arms a chance to blossom. But, if the FO has some concerns about injury or eating some innings, 300k is not a lot of extra money to pay in these times. Last year there was discussion over signing some FA for $1M and some folks here became quite animated over the signing. I say if it doesn’t represent a significant percentage of the payroll, it’s probably not worth a lot of hand wringing.
A good reference point here is Aaron Fultz. Shapiro picked up his club option prior to the 2008 season at a price of $1.5 million. Then, when Breslow became available on a waiver claim, they DFA’ed Fultz, seemingly with little thought to eating the $1.5 million.
Essentially, they spent 400K upgrading from Fultz to Breslow, which had to be seen as a pretty marginal upgrade in the grand scheme of things. (Although, then again, Fultz never made it back to the majors after that.) And then, not satisfied with eating that meal, they dumped Breslow, too.
Keep in mind, this was part of an effort to contend, and it was also in a soft but not yet restructured economy. Still, it was also twice as much cash, and four times as much marginal cash, as in the present example.
by Jay on Nov 9, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
I guess an important criteria for me is that I don’t think Lewis really presents additional value over the guys we expect to push into the majors over the next two years. I think Lewis at 400k is still a pretty likely DFA candidate. If you’re playing to contend (like the Fultz example) then keep him for now. I think today’s insurance policy should be a guy you are more likely to use down the road, who has a chance to be more than the 5-6th guy in your pen.
I know this all makes sense, but one question: If players of equivalent value and talent are readily available, why were the Indians pens so bad?
This gets back to the “Fire Everyone!” series. It seems to come down to evaluation and coaching. There really is nowhere else to point the finger, because other teams really have done more with less, particularly if you go back to our brief flirtation with spending more than $5 million each year on free agent relievers.
I agree with that, but I sense there is also an underlying truth here: a bird in the hand. A reliever who kind of sucks is better than an unknown reliever who might really, historically, hundred-year-Oldberto suck. I don’t know if he’s $300,000 better, but maybe better than rolling the dice, unless—as you say—you’re adept at rolling the dice.
Again, I don’t really buy that Jensen is more “known” than some other guy on some other team. It’s not like each team plays in a bunker, invisible from all the others. We have miles of tape and reams of stats and scouting reports on all these guys. Certainly the Shapiro-Wedge combo seemed to find ways to turn personal familiarity into a competitive disadvantage.
It’s that there are better arms for the pen with options remaining. Why spend an extra 300k now for a guy who may not make your roster anyway?
Lots of better options. By the start of 2012 we should see a pretty sizable turnover in the bullpen, much of that occurring this coming season.
by APV on Nov 8, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Aside from that playoff run, Lewis has been pretty bad for us. Maybe he’ll end up ok. Let’s let some NL team experiment with it and figure it out, and let’s give someone else a chance. We have young arms in the system’s bullpen, so rather than hope and pray for mediocrity out of lewis for arbitration prices, let’s slot in one of the younger arms and see if he can be a great reliever.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
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