Pitching conundrum
Should teams in Cleveland's or KC's position even try to trade elite pitchers for young pitching prospects, even in masses as we have tried to do, or are we just kidding ourselves and should we instead try to accumulate hitters (who can more reliably be evaluated and also expected to get to the majors)?
Rob Neyer directs our attention to a public Google Doc compilation of 21 years of Baseball America top 100 lists (pretty good work from anonymous, in and of itself) and draws the sad old TINSTAAPP lesson. He then goes on to bemoan the recent Greinke to the Brewers trade. Given that the Tribe has itself been known to trade a Cy Young award winner or two (nearly three) in recent years, his criticism of KC can be seen by reflection as also a criticism of Cleveland.
Should teams that are predictably going to be mediocre at best while rebuilding keep or trade a great pitcher for more though younger pitching prospects? And if the team decides to trade that pitcher, should the team try for pitching or hitting prospects back in return?
Attempting to keep a good pitcher on a terrible team is unrealistic and a waste of money, we can all probably agree. "Cashing in" before the pitcher reaches free agency seems to be the only way to go, pragmatically speaking, and not just the right way. Neyer, pointing to TINSTAAPP, seems to be saying by way of warning, "just don't think you are getting any real pitching back in return" if you trade for pitching back.
over 1 year ago
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Every front of the rotation pitcher that plays today was a prospect at some point. There is some level of predictability to this otherwise I could pluck any 18 year old guy off of the street and claim his chances of winning a Cy Young are as good as anyone else’s. If there exists additional uncertainty to projecting future pitching studs, we just need to have more of these prospects in the system to improve our chances.
I wanna go fast
This should be a FanPost.
/Jay
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Dec 29, 2010 7:31 PM EST reply actions
More having fun at Jay’s expense than yours. The Great FanPost Drought has been over for awhile now.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Dec 29, 2010 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
It has?
On most sites with comparably active communities, there are several new FanPosts every week, in some cases every day. Our community underachieves in this respect.
Maybe BA needs to learn a little more about rating/projecting pitchers…
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Dec 31, 2010 3:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions
What this tells me is that the Royals got the best return on the Greinke trade. It seems that you can’t have enough pitchers in your system since their success appears “random”.
The wisest use of resources would be for the small market teams to draft only pitchers with hopes of finding a couple studs to trade for fully vetted hitters.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Jan 1, 2011 11:28 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I’ve kind of thought this for a while, but I know how little I know, so I didn’t say anything. Hitting IS so much more predictable. It seems like it’s a lot easier to accumulate hitting prospects into a fierce offense and then hope you get lucky on the pitching front than the other way around. Maybe that’s not really the case, but it sure feels right.
"Have you ever thought about love????"
Of course you know we drafted CC in the first round and Thome in the 17th right?
Our best players wear suits.
You do know that a single data point doesn’t make a trend, right?
by Jay on Jan 7, 2011 2:24 AM EST up reply actions
PLUS, hitting sells tickets. You bludgeon a team 10-7 and fans choke down lots of beer and hot dogs. If you play a lot of 2-1 games, the fans fall asleep, assuming they bothered to show up for the snoozefests. I’m not referring to students of baseball, I’m talking about the other 2/3 of the seats that are sold.
So tell me sandy, what’s the best baseball game you ever saw? Me, I like the Indians comeback against the Mariners in 2001. That game had everything including great hitting and great pitching.
Our best players wear suits.
Where was the great pitching? The score was 15-14!
by Jay on Jan 7, 2011 2:24 AM EST up reply actions
Ignore my other reply this should go here:
After the Burba/Bacsik implosion, the Tribe relievers shutout the Mariners for six innings. That wasn’t too bad.
Our best players wear suits.
Hello Cleveland! We are the Burba Bacsik Implosion, and we are here to rock you!
by emd2k3 on Jan 8, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
There were so many good games over the years and time fogs my memory. There was this one game, way back when, Indians vs Orioles. Brooks Robinson and Max Alvis both made a bunch of acrobatic plays at 3B. Of course, there was that game that Colavito hit his 4 home runs. There were late inning comebacks in playoff games. Then there was the Len Barker perfect game. I bet I’m forgetting plenty of great games.















