2010 in Review: Starting Pitching

by Ryan on Dec 5, 2010 11:27 AM EST in Analysis

Posts in this series:

Team Offense	Team Pitching	Team Defense
Catcher	First Base	Second Base
Shortstop	Third Base	Designated Hitter
Left Field	Center Field	Right Field
Starting Pitching	Relief Pitching

Overview

The rotation wasn't quite the nightmare it could have been, thanks to a fine season from Fausto Carmona and a surprising rookie campaign from Mitch Talbot, but the starting staff still had its problems, from the early-season struggles of Justin Masterson and Jake Westbrook to the David Huff Experience. Josh Tomlin and Jeanmar Gomez, who came up in late July, pitched well in August but tailed off in September. Mitch Talbot was a bright spot the first half of the year, but fell off after the All-Star break. Jake Westbrook returned to the rotation almost two years after injuring his elbow; he was traded in late July.

Rk		G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1	OAK	162	4117	423	904	158	12	100	59	26	327	675	2.06	.243	.307	.373	.680	1386	.271	96	86
2	SEA	162	4282	483	998	204	14	110	48	19	278	667	2.40	.254	.306	.397	.703	1560	.279	97	91
3	BOS	162	4341	517	980	230	20	89	121	34	383	833	2.17	.254	.326	.393	.719	1517	.300	98	96
4	TEX	162	4089	488	918	185	15	114	66	25	347	757	2.18	.251	.320	.403	.723	1475	.286	104	97
5	CHW	162	4263	500	1045	204	15	97	63	28	303	705	2.33	.268	.323	.403	.726	1570	.304	101	98
6	TBR	162	4235	469	964	192	25	129	72	21	328	797	2.43	.251	.314	.415	.729	1593	.285	105	98
7	TOR	162	4083	492	945	219	12	99	43	31	345	783	2.27	.258	.326	.405	.731	1485	.302	100	99
8	LAA	162	4305	489	998	214	27	116	92	28	332	762	2.30	.257	.317	.415	.733	1614	.290	100	99
9	DET	162	4169	519	986	162	32	105	76	40	338	728	2.15	.263	.328	.408	.736	1527	.300	101	101
10	NYY	162	4124	500	949	179	9	131	81	20	351	753	2.15	.258	.326	.419	.745	1539	.289	106	103
11	MIN	162	4184	479	1055	225	27	111	61	27	233	706	3.03	.272	.317	.430	.747	1667	.306	103	103
12	BAL	162	4122	527	985	205	25	124	54	17	338	592	1.75	.267	.333	.438	.771	1612	.287	100	110
13	CLE	162	4130	527	1020	215	18	98	78	46	361	585	1.62	.278	.346	.426	.773	1565	.305	104	111
14	KCR	162	4126	580	1033	211	20	119	103	38	348	654	1.88	.279	.342	.443	.785	1641	.309	102	114
	TOT	2268	58570	6993	13780	2803	271	1542	1017	400	4612	9997	2.17	.261	.324	.412	.736	21751	.294	101	100

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/5/2010.

Only Boston's starters walked more than the Indians, which not only led to more runs, but also shortened the length of starts: Indians starters threw 948.2 innings, third-fewest in the American League. The Indians also ranked at the bottom of the league in strikeouts thanks to a rotation full of ball-in-play pitchers.

Here's the individual stat lines, followed by some comments:

Rk		ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP ▾	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
1	Fausto Carmona	3.77	33	33	4	1	210.1	203	98	88	17	72	0	124	9	0	1.307	5.3	1.72
2	Justin Masterson	4.78	29	29	1	1	169.1	188	101	90	14	73	4	130	10	0	1.541	6.9	1.78
3	Mitch Talbot	4.41	28	28	1	0	159.1	169	88	78	13	68	2	88	8	1	1.487	5.0	1.29
4	Jake Westbrook	4.65	21	21	1	0	127.2	133	68	66	15	44	4	73	6	0	1.386	5.1	1.66
5	David Huff	6.21	15	15	1	0	79.2	101	61	55	14	34	1	37	3	0	1.695	4.2	1.09
6	Josh Tomlin	4.56	12	12	1	0	73.0	72	38	37	10	19	3	43	3	0	1.247	5.3	2.26
7	Jeanmar Gomez	4.68	11	11	0	0	57.2	73	36	30	7	22	3	34	2	0	1.647	5.3	1.55
8	Carlos Carrasco	3.83	7	7	1	0	44.2	47	20	19	6	14	1	38	1	0	1.366	7.7	2.71
9	Aaron Laffey	3.60	5	5	0	0	25.0	27	12	10	1	15	0	16	1	0	1.680	5.8	1.07
10	Justin Germano	22.50	1	1	0	0	2.0	7	5	5	1	0	0	2	0	0	3.500	9.0
	Team Total	4.53	162	162	10	2	948.2	1020	527	478	98	361	18	585	43	1	1.456	5.5	1.62

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/5/2010.

Fausto Carmona (Signed Through 2011- $6.1M) - No Option Years Left

The contract status is a bit misleading, because after this season the Indians can exercise the first of three team options:

2012: $7.0M
2013: $9.0M
2014: $12.0M

So any of those rumors that the Indians were actually looking to trade Carmona is outright lunacy. This is one of the most team-friendly contracts in the majors. If Carmona puts up three more great seasons, then picking up those options will be no-brainers, or the two sides could use that upcoming team option as an impetus for a contract extension. If 2010 was just a mirage, then the Indians can walk away at any time.

Justin Masterson (Pre-Arbitration) - 1 Option Year Remaining

Thanks to a better second half, Justin will stay in the rotation. As the season wore on, he got good enough against left-handed hitters to stay a viable starter. The durability test was passed with flying colors, as he threw 180 innings without missing a scheduled start. Now the Indians need him to turn his fantastic stuff into results.

Mitch Talbot (Pre-Arbitration) - No Option Years Remaining

Talbot doesn't have the upside of Carmona, Masterson, or Carrasco, but he's a finished product, and has only accrued one year of service time. That combination, in this era of free agency, makes Talbot a valuable pitcher. The Indians won't have to spend a season or two dealing with growing pains with Talbot, but will have to deal with a lot of long innings; he only struck out 88 while walking 69 and allowing 169 hits in 159.1 innings.

David Huff (Pre-Arbitration) - 2 Option Years Remaining

Huff made 9 of his 11 starts before the All-Star Break, and aside from a complete game early in the season, was consistently awful. He was sent down in late June, and didn't show any improvements in two starts in August. He struck out only three more (37) than he walked (34).

Josh Tomlin (Pre-Arbitration) - 2 Option Years Remaining

Tomlin started the season way off the radar, coming off just a decent season in AA. But thanks to turnover in the rotation and his own success in AAA, the Indians brought him up in late July, and he finished the season in the rotation. Unlike many of his rotation brethren, Tomlin did not have problems with walks (2.3 BB/9). He ended poorly, but he'll probably have a shot to stay in the rotation next season.

Jeanmar Gomez (Pre-Arbitration) - 2 OptionYears Remaining

Gomez was called on to make a spot start in July, and pitched seven shutout innings against Detroit. He was brought back two weeks later after the Indians dealt Jake Westbrook, and he remained in the rotation the rest of the way. Like Tomlin, Gomez was initially very effective, and struggled after the league had gotten a chance to see him. He'll be in the mix for a rotation spot.

Carlos Carrasco (Pre-Arbitration) - 1 Option Year Remaining

The Indians brought Carrasco to the majors late in the 2009 season, and he looked completely lost at the major-league level. After spending most of the 2010 season in AAA, Carrasco seemed a different pitcher in his few starts with the Indians in 2010, striking out 38 in 44.2 innings. That nice stretch probably earned the former Philadelphia prospect a spot in next year's rotation.

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Comments

Huff…was consistently awful

I don’t know what happened to Huff in 2010. Huff was a real prospect. Huff’s fastball velocity (average 90.6) is not below average for a LHP. Huff was utterly incapable of getting guys out, even at the AAA level last year. Time for a complete rebuild.

by APV on Dec 5, 2010 11:39 AM EST reply actions

Can he call Cliff Lee and ask how to throw that cutter?

by xrickx on Dec 6, 2010 12:55 AM EST up reply actions

The line between lost and magnificent is a frog’s hair. Carmona became a stud once again simply by improving his change up. CC went from raw to competent by letting up on his fastball and locating it better. Then, he went from competent to world beater by learning to get his curve ball over for a strike. We typically don’t know what pitch any pitcher could use in his arsenal to become a very good pitcher. What we do know is that we have a crap load of pretty decent arms who are one or two adjustments away from being big contributors at the major league level. Huff is just as likely to be the next Cliff Lee as any other pitcher.

Ye damned whale!

by elsandito on Dec 6, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

I think it might be slightly larger than a frog’s hair, but I agree with your basic point. Some of you might remember that I named Charles Nagy as one of the organization’s most important individuals last year as the AAA pitching coach, given the talent he had to work with and the importance of that talent to the organization. Nagy is gone now and I’m not sure how to evaluate his success. Rondon had a meltdown. Sowers and Huff did nothing. Pino went from fringe prospect to nothing. But Carrasco eventually put things together in the second half and had an excellent September in Cleveland. Jeanmar Gomez struggled most of the season but then inexplicably performed with some self-respect in Cleveland. Tomlin became rode some impressively lucky ball-in-play results in Columbus to a 6-4 record in Cleveland. And the bullpen, pretty much across the board, was excellent.

If I’m forced to evaluate Nagy in some capacity based on these results, my evaluation probably won’t be good, though there are certainly counter-arguments that can be made. Once again, I think whoever takes on the role vacated by Nagy (rumored to be either Indians assistant Ruben Niebla or current Akron Aeros pitching coach Greg Hibbard) will have an extremely important job on their hands. In the case of Huff, for example, imagine the value to the organization if Huff could indeed be resuscitated as a legitimate 4th starter.

by APV on Dec 6, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions