Jayson Werth, $126M, Nationals
What do Jayson Werth, $126M, and the Nationals have in common? For the next seven years, everything.
He's a year older than Adam Dunn. Although Dunn is a bad outfielder and only an acceptable first baseman, Werth is getting three more years and $70M more than the recently departed Washington first baseman.
This contract is tied with Vernon Wells for the third-largest ever for an OF, behind Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano (h/t to rotoworld).
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He set the stage for this long before Werth was even his client. Boras used the Nats to drive up the price on Teixeira. Teixeira is a HoF caliber player, a whole different beast than Werth. The Nats could have tried to justify that deal — but not this one to Werth
Still, Boras went back to the Nats, I’m sure, to give them access to a “marquee” player. Kudos to him.
This isn’t even the Tigers’ 4 year, $40M deal with Pudge Rodriguez, a WTF deal to give a free agent a reason to come to a losing team. This is more than three times that obligation in terms of dollars, and almost double in terms of years.
i disagree that Teixeira is HOF caliber
by silverbackAXP on Dec 5, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
I didn’t think so either, but on the other hand, he does have 275 HR at age 30.
As a first baseman, he needs to get 500 HR or 3000 hits at a bare minimum to have a shot. He has no chance to reach 3000. He’s less than 50/50 to get to 500 HR, per the Bill James estimator.
by Jay on Dec 5, 2010 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think he’s a lock, but I think with six seasons left in NY, in that lineup and that stadium, he’ll have the opportunity to build is counting stats with 35HR seasons and 100RBI years. He’ll have a few more top-10 MVP finishes, he’ll add to his four Gold Gloves, and voters will clamor at these accomplishments.
Like Vladi, Manny, Pujols, and Miguel Cabrera, Teixeira has never really had an alarmingly disappointing year.
Did the Nats really drive up Teixeira’s price? Seems to me the Red Sox bid 160M and the Yankees bid 180M.
by Jay on Dec 5, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
I recalled the Nats made an 8 year, $160M offer, and the Red Sox had to match that. It appeared to be between just the Nats and Sox and Orioles (the whole “Tex goes home” to Baltimore thing), because the Yanks had spent all their time on CC and there was some thought that they’d be happy to live with the already acquired Nick Swisher to play 1B.
Contracts so far this offseason which probably will not end well:
7 years, $126M = Werth
4 years, $56M = Adam Dunn (his last contract was for 2 years, $20M)
4 years, $50M= Victor Martinez (if both are DHs, Dunn > Victor)
3 years, $33M = Ted Lilly (for ages 35-37 seasons)
3 years, $32.5M = De La Rosa (Y3 = player option, Y4 = club option; max 180IP)
3 years, $21M = Juan Uribe (career .300OBP, turns 32 to start year)
3 years, $18M = John Buck (coming off a 1 year, $2M deal)
3 years, $16.5M = Joaquin Benoit (ok then)
The thing that bugs me about that deal is the 3rd year is a player option, which really isn’t ever a team-friendly thing.. If he’s doing well, he’s gone. If he’s had a disaster or been mediocre, he stays for $10M.
In the NL, would I like him on a two year, $22M deal? Yeah. It’s not a crippling contract, but the risk is all on the team with that player option.
I think they got him at a discount b/c they offered the player option. I mean, he’s getting what Lily got for the first two years and he is a much, much better sign than Lily. In order to get that low annual rate for y1 and y2, they had to do the stupid player option.
Player option followed by club option is like an MC Escher painting.
I used to have a method for estimating the value of a player option (to the player of course). Maybe I’ll figure it out again later.
Oh, I remember … it’s very simple for a one-year thing, actually. You just multiply the value of the player’s PECOTA attrition rate for that season times the option salary, because the assumption is that the player exercises the option after a season where his value has dropped significantly, i.e., attrition. His 2013 attrition rate was set at 44% after 2009 and probably will be a little higher now. I think the player option should be considered a liability of about $6 million.
I’m partial to the Dunn deal (no pun intended).
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Dec 5, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I don’t think the Dunn deal belongs on this list. It’s only an overpay in the sense that nearly all free agent deals are overpays.
by Jay on Dec 5, 2010 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
No,because Choo’s extension will cover his three arbitration seasons. It’s not the same scale. If the Indians are committing guaranteed dollars now and Choo’s production stays the same, something fair is probably $4M, $7M, and $11M over the next three years.
As far as his free agent years, his value is whatever the other teams are willing to pay. It will not be in Cleveland. I can’t stress it enough — that possibility died when he hired Boras.
The cost of these deals also suggest to me that moving Hafner is not completely out of the question
by APV on Dec 6, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
If I can just get close enough to the contract with the flame…
by APV on Dec 6, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Years ago, when Jayson Werth was a catcher in the Orioles’ organization, I saw him hit a home run in Bowie off Akron’s Joe Roa. As Werth started his home-run trot, Roa edged over toward the third base line, and when Werth rounded third, Roa decked him. The dugouts emptied. There was a lot of pushing and wild swinging. Guys were tossed. I never heard anyone explain the bad blood between the two players. Anyway, it makes me wonder if he’s the kind of guy in whom you’d want to invest $126 million. It’s stupifying, even if he’s a prince of a fellow.
by ken from alexandria on Dec 5, 2010 8:39 PM EST reply actions
In boxing, or even hockey or football, sure, there’s value in being physical. Hell, even in basketball and soccer. But willingness to scrap in baseball seems about as valuable as it is in tennis…or ice skating.
This.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Dec 7, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Jayson Werth was a catcher in the Orioles’ organization
For the 2nd time in 5 minutes…
WHAT!?
I hold back at least 3 Ambriz jokes a week.
This deal kind of reminds me of the JD Drew deal. Not good, but not awful.
It’s only awful if you are dreaming of us extending Choo.
It’s just a surprising investment given the state of the franchise.
I suppose the Nats are willing to pay for the next three or four seasons of Werth, at the risk of throwing away the final three or four years of the deal (and $70M), to make whatever statement the franchise wants to make. Drew was a year younger but more injury prone, yet his deal was only for five years and $70M.
Oh, and the Red Sox have the luxury of a DH for a middle-30s player on the decline. If Werth’s defensive stats last year are the start of his decline, it’s scary.
On twitter, Joe Sheehan brought up a sort of bizarre point. What if, instead of giving out this contract, the Nats put it back into discounts and give-aways every game? That’s over 200K a game. Wouldn’t they become the most popular team in baseball?
Where’s the big problem here? Integrity?
Wouldn’t they become the most popular team in baseball?
Not a chance. Free giveaways work now and then to promote a product. But if you begin to just shift the value of the product, in this case a baseball ticket, towards $0, people will eventually start valuing it that way. Which is not what you want.
by APV on Dec 6, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Over 200k a game. For 7 years, giving away ten cars every game.
by afh4 on Dec 6, 2010 2:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I’d have to sell the car to pay the gift tax.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Dec 6, 2010 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
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