top 30 prospects
by mcrose on Feb 13, 2010 11:32 PM EST
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I know a lot of Top 10 lists have been published, linked to and discussed here, and most observers give high marks for the current state of the tribe farm system for its depth of legit ML prospects. I put together my own "top 30" to get a read on that depth, and I thought I might as well post it here during the lull before ST.
I spent some time on it, weighing the usual considerations of ceiling, maturity of skills, age and level. I also weighed injury history, so that a player like Kelvin de la Cruz shows up a little lower than you might expect given an added uncertainty of return to form.
I think the "plus depth" rating shows - you can go over 20 deep on the list and have players that project to at least make it to the show at some point. I don't think we've ever had that kind of depth, and regardless of the number of blue chip prospects therein and what trades were made to supplement it, the current snapshot of the farm comes close to matching the vision Shap initially laid out. Of course, it remains to be seen if it provides the raw material to realize the primary goal - consistently competitive ML clubs (ours, hopefully!).
FYI, Tony Lastoria is doing his top 50 on his blog, and just hit #30 (Bryan Price, who didn't make the cut on mine). I recommend following it, since his scouting reports are more detailed than they've been previously (presumably from his expanding contact list of scouts and coaches both within and outside the Tribe system). He also posts video that usually has a slo-mo element that is kinda cool to watch, especially for pitchers.
So, my Top 30:
3 - Hector Rondon
4 - Alex White
5 - Michael Brantley
6 - Carlos Carrasco
7 - Nick Hagadone
8 - Jason Knapp
9 -Alex Perez
10 - TJ House
11 - Nick Weglarz
12 - Lou Marson
13 - Abner Abreu
14 - Jeanmar Gomez
15 - Jess Todd
16 - Carlos Rivero
17 - Scott Barnes
18 - Kelvin De La Cruz
19 - Josh Judy
20 - Jason Donald
21 - Zach Putnam
22 - Jason Kipnis
23 - Eric Berger
24 - Jordan Brown
25 - Beau Mills
26 - CC Lee
27 - Frank Herrmann
28 - Wes Hodges
29 - Paulo Espino
30 - Delvi Cid
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You know something? I was really wrong about Taylor Green.
Also! Garko for Barnes could really end up looking like a clock-cleaning. I wonder where Barnes would have ended up on these lists had it not been for the Lee and Martinez trades.
rosie, I like the love for Alexander the Perez here. #9 might be aggressive, but I’m really hopeful for Perez’s 2010. Most under-rated on your list: Chen-Chang.
by fleerdon on Feb 14, 2010 2:02 PM EST reply actions
Every which way. Thinking Green was a second baseman, and thinking he had good pop for a second baseman, most notably. Brantley’s a unique asset, but I interpreted my own ignorance of his value as mistrust of his potential.
Still wish he was a real centerfielder, though.
by fleerdon on Feb 14, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Meant to add, I agree that Lastoria’s unearthed some useful bits for me this year in the countdown as well. That bit about Trey Haley not being allowed to throw his two-seamer or his curveball was especially interesting. You know your organization means business when it takes away your two best pitches and tells you that you can have them back when you don’t need them anymore.
by fleerdon on Feb 14, 2010 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
This looks pretty reasonable to me. Maybe the most encouraging thing is that some pretty good players—Matt McBride, Cord Phelps, Steven Wright, Joe Gardner, and Bryan Price, for example—don’t show up here at all. That means we are indeed pretty deep, especially with the pitching. I hope we add a couple of athletic corner outfielders in the draft this year.
by ken from alexandria on Feb 14, 2010 3:14 PM EST reply actions
The Indians have a pretty stunning number of “could be interesting” guys – should be a very interesting minor league season
Yes, it will be very interesting. Let’s assume we actually soon have some studly guys who are actually blocked in the next couple year or two (say Carlos Rivero becomes the “it” guy, a sought after SS prospect) – I’m also very interested in whether the FO will use that depth in trades, something its been very reluctant to do.
We simply don’t trade our good prospects, but it may make sense to change that philosophy pretty soon.
The only two examples I can think of are Kouz for Barfield and Gaub/Stevens/Archer for DeRosa. The former was pretty much a straight up swap for players approximately at the same stage of development (not that I didn’t think it was a good trade at the time).
The latter is a minor example of a type of trade I hope we’ll be in the position to do more often – trading prospects for experienced big league help when the time is right. There’s no reason we can’t pull off a “reverse” Lee or Martinez trade in the future. They both were top notch vets under reasonable contracts with some time left on them. If we find ourselves with good depth in desirable prospects, we should be willing to make that kind of deal as well when the opportunity presents itself.
Looking back at the DeRosa trade, that was really well played out considering the end result. If we acquire him on a team that makes the playoffs and he contributes, like he seemed he would have, we would have been happy. The team couldn’t do it, so we flipped him for some very nice returns. Thanks, Mark. It was fun while it lasted.
Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...
Knowing when to retire is so difficult; everybody hangs on just a little too long. In KK’s case, 6,636 pitches too long, and counting.
by YoDaddyWags on Feb 17, 2010 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
It’s a good list. I’d switch Knapp and Weglarz, based on their respective injuries, but that’s a minor detail.
Wegz is a saber dude’s wet dream with his plate discipline and ISO at such a young age, but he’s a red flag from a scout’s perspective because he’s so physically huge at such a young age.
He’s 240+ pounds already and he’s not gonna get skinnier, even tho he’s not carrying any flab right now. As far as successful ML body types he’s already a bit of an outlier. That said, from what I’ve seen of him in video clips he moves pretty well, but my ranking of him outside the top 10 does reflect some doubts about his durability as a year-to-year pro.
Honestly wasn’t aware that being big (without fat) at a young age was bad for a player. Interesting. Where does the concern stem from? Bearing too much of a load? Straining young muscles? This isn’t snark.
Steel Nick
I think it’s a question of how his body projects to grow — he’s already huge yet hasn’t “filled out” yet at his age — which will impact his overall athleticism.
In so many words, we’re worried about him getting too big. Not Mo Vaughn, but enough to affect his durability.
Steel Nick
This seems like a worry for 2015 to me. Are big sluggers really so rare?
Anyway, we’ve seen our share of teenage fireballers with mixed success at low A and shoulder troubles. So we’re just comparing red flags.
by dgcambridge on Feb 18, 2010 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
I think he’s just saying that Wegz could get big enough to affect durability even without reaching the ridiculous widths acheived by Mo late in his career.
by dgcambridge on Feb 18, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I’d guess its the cumulative effect of mass multiplied over the yearly marathons that make a baseball career. For me its the simple observation of “how many 250 lb outfielders have you heard of?”
I know there are 1B guys one could name, but I do think that due to the length of the season there’s a certain natural selection process that goes on. Guys that aren’t big enuf have trouble maintaining strength over the course, and guys that are too big have trouble staying healthy.
Wegz may be that outlier – like I said, he seems pretty athletic for his size. But he is coming off surgery for a repetitive stress type shin injury, and for me there’s enough doubt for future projection to lower my expectations a bit.
The comp that BP always makes is to Boog. Which would be nice. Of course, he was already having success in the majors at Wegz’ age.
To add support to this, he did miss the entire 2006 season, broken wrist I think, and he only played 100 games in ‘08. I don’t remember an injury but that amount of games suggests to me that he missed some time.
Not to sound too negative, I still really like his potential to be a productive power hitter, I am just a little skeptical of his ability to play the outfield everyday.
There could well have been an injury, but he missed time in ’08 largely because of the Olympics.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 18, 2010 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
"how many 250 lb outfielders have you heard of?"
Kevin Mitchell, Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn? Dave Kingman?
Wasn’t Kirby Puckett famously short, like 5’ 8"? I seriously doubt he was 250 at any point in his career, to say nothing of when he first came up.
Everybody should get ice cream every day.
Really? I’m not so sure. Regardless, this isn’t bobsled, it isn’t total weight that we’re looking at. Each of those guys (except Kingman) was productive with some serious extra padding. The total weight may have not been that impressive, as none were over 6 ft (Wegz is 6’3"). Kingman is the outlier here, I thought he was tall and relatively skinny.
Just listened to Jason Knapp on Smoke Signals (Tony L. and Paul Cousineau podcast). He’s feeling good and the docs say he’s a little ahead of schedule on his recovery from arthroscopic shoulder surgery.
I was a little surprised that his expected rehab/throwing schedule will have him joining LC or Kinston later than I thought – more like mid summer than late spring. He pitched last year at age 18, so its not like he’ll be behind the curve or anything, but it’ll be a while before we see his name in a boxscore.
Kinston rotation, even without the prospect of Knapp opening the season there, looks to be loaded, with Hagadone, White, Perez and House (4 of the top 10 above) likely starting there. I figure Joe Gardner or Danny Salazar will round it out.
People I refuse to pay any attention: Delvi Cid.
by afh4 on Feb 19, 2010 1:03 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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