Breaking Down the Rotation
The link above is to Ocker's article, where he at least goes through the candidates one by one (as compared with Ingraham's sad-sack article on the same). But I'm not interested in discussing Ocker; I'd rather talk about the team. Here's how I see the order as of today.
Note: I don't care about the actual order that they roll out, nor do a care about the label of "a #2 starters," but this is a ranking of how firm each guy's place in the rotation, assuming they are healthy.
I'm putting in the ERAs projected by CHONE and then PECOTA (playing time adjusted). (If we think that's too much from BP, I'll take it out)
These are the big 6 candidates for our rotation (Why 6? Someone will be hurt in spring training):
1. Westbrook [4.38/5.00]
2. Masterson [4.36/4.20]
3. Carmona [4.72/4.99]
4. Laffey [4.68/5.34]
5. Talbot [5.25/5.13]
6. Huff [4.87/4.96]
These are the Near Future Kids:
- Rondon [5.14/4.54]
- Carrasco [5.26/4.85]
These are the Outsiders, with bullpen potential
- Pino
- Ambriz [5.19/]
This guy is lost in the wilderness somewhere
- SLewis [4.78/4.62]
These guys (ok, 2 of them) will be knocking on the door at this time next year
- Hagadone
- Putnam
- Gomez
-Barnes
We're still paying this guy
- Reyes [5.00/4.94]
Your #3 starter for the Norfolk Tides
- Sowers [5.02/5.02]
almost 2 years ago
dgcambridge
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Apparently, they’re the AAA Orioles affiliate. I want Jeremy in our pen to start the year – I think he could be good there. And if he sucks, big deal… DFA him in May.
"I'm a baseball lifer. It's what I do." —Manny Acta
is ambriz a rotation option at all? i thought the whole reason they selected him is that they thought his stuff lent itself to being maximized by a move to the pen.
I just meant that he had an outside shot at being in the rotation. But you’re correct that all their comments point to the pen for him. I probably could have left him off.
i think he’s in the right spot, whatever the semantics. i think either he or pino could start. but with all the other names, especially once talbot entered the mix, there’s just no room. with pino, he’d have to hurdle guys and then also get added to the roster.
I’ll admit to being a little obsessed with the case of Yohan Pino.
Same size, speed and control as Sowers, but right-handed and with an extra couple of K’s per 9. There’s no hurry because of the roster situation, but much like Sowers, what’s left to learn at AAA?
But how does he move ahead of the above guys? By impressing in ST and Columbus, I guess.
PECOTA by the way, has him at a lower ERA than any of the above except JM.
Sowers is having shoulder problems, apparently from last year (although mo mention of it then that I know) and still has inflammation. He is officially “behind” the other guys in terms of being ready to throw, and Acta’s already said that things will not go down to the wire. If Sowers is not ready to take his turn to compete for a rotation spot when ST games start up, he’s probably not competing for one.
Haven’t we seen “creative” use of the DL before when it comes down to roster spots, options left, etc? Makes things easier – Laffey and Talbot for the 5 spot, loser to the pen as first starter in waiting.
I’d be willing to be that a couple players easily beat those projections. I’d definitely say Westbrook comes back stronger than projected. I also think at least one of them surprises (I have no idea who) with an outside chance that we have two “surprises”. I just think with that many arms which have either had success previously or are/were considered decent prospects that odds have it one (or two) of them figures things out this year. My best guess is that Carmona rebounds with new coaches and that either Carrasco or Rondon comes up and we catch lightning in a bottle.
And, heck, with a decent offense (which I have faith in) and a strong bullpen (not overused if we get any decent pitching) pulled together with 2-3 starters doing decently – maybe, just maybe we could squeak by and win the division. It’s the day after pitchers/catchers reported – that’s my line and I’m holding to it!
I just wanted to believe.
by mjmarble on Feb 22, 2010 4:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I’ll take some of whatever you’re smoking…
by JulioBernazard on Feb 23, 2010 8:16 AM EST up reply actions
I feel bad for Scott Lewis. Has he already reported? Getting lost in the wilderness… what if a pack of wolves find him? They would leave an awful mess. His glove wouldn’t protect him very well. Hope he has his cup on….
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