Graham's HR rate
I had no idea that Connor Graham had given up only 0.3 HRs/9 in his minor league career. It went up a little last year but...wow. That's low.
almost 2 years ago
afh4
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I love that this is a fan shot. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up that HR rate and somehow lower his walks. Anyway, isn’t he one of the guys who will probably end up in the bullpen soon?
The length of his minor career isn’t as long, but Nick Hagadone has only given up 1 professional HR in 80 innings.
Shap hasn’t given up all his old vices.
by afh4 on Feb 24, 2010 1:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
i was trying to see, the other night, if i could draw any parallels between sowers’ and rondon’s minor league numbers at various ages and levels, and noted that sowers, before being called up, pitched 104 innings in AAA while only giving up one tater.
That’s a hard comp to make if you include age, as Rondon is about to turn 22, and Sowers began his major league career at that age.
yes, what i discovered is that it’s really difficult to draw any easy analogy between the two. what i was contemplating, vaguely, was whether or not there is an identifiable “type” of pitcher who excels in the upper levels of the minors at the appropriate ages, but then doesn’t have the skills/stuff to make the final jump, and whether sowers could be an archetype or mold for that hypothetical “type.” i got as far as looking at sowers’ and rondon’s numbers, had another beer, and decided i don’t know anywhere near enough about statistics to figure something like that out.
Here’s Sowers, he’s got some mighty powers,
Pour me a Duvel, could drink it by the hour,
A blond Belgian, a devil of a Walloon,
Drink it down, don’t share it with the spittoon.
Saaz hops, alcoholic chops, now it’s done and we on to our next stop:
That’s Rondon, got him on the cell phone,
Whachu doon, man, I hear you to’ up Ak-rone.
But not Columbus. Now Doppelbock us.
Slide over a few of those you got, Gus:
Like a Maximator, let’s try a Troegenator,
Them RC Monks, they be like terminator brewing liquid bread.
That said: let’s move on to our next comp.
Oh man. I think my head stomp.
by YoDaddyWags on Feb 24, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 9 recs
I’ve given out recs for so much less than this.
by fleerdon on Feb 25, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm. Well I wouldn’t put Sowers up as someone who excelled at the upper levels. His 2005 was excellent, but everything after that has been well short of dominant. There’s two ways to look at that 2005 and everything after, either Sowers’ stuff is just particularly less effective as each higher level, or he was just a better pitcher in 2005 and hasn’t ever been back there. It’s almost certainly a combination of the two.
But yeah, what Jay says.
by dgcambridge on Feb 24, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
this is a great point. i wonder if anyone could come up with an example of a pitcher who dominated AA and AAA, got promoted and didn’t cut it, and then returned to being a dominant AAA pitcher. seems like this would more effectively isolate the characteristic i am trying to identify.
Funny, I think it’s a gross overstatement. Aside from some apparent got-sent-down doldrums in 2007, I think it’s fair to say that Sowers has been very effective in the minors over the past two seasons. Maddeningly effective, in fact. Of course you can’t really call someone “dominant” without the K’s.
Will Carroll linked back to a year-old Kevin Goldstein piece in a discussion that might be relevant for your question (sorry – don’t know if this stuff is behind the paywall or not). In case it is, here is a critical paragraph and table from the Goldstein piece:
The next day I was talking to another scout, and we were talking about velocity when he just came out and said what we were both talking around. “I’ve more or less come to the conclusion that, as unsexy as it is, velocity means more or less everything,” he said. We talked about the rare exceptions, and how lefties aren’t always limited to same restrictions, but then we started to test our theory by naming right-handers in the big leagues who don’t have at least average velocity. Needless to say, it wasn’t a long discussion.
Grade MPH RHPs
80 96+ 7
75 95 11
70 94 31
65 93 34
60 92 45
55 90.5 56
50 89 27
45 87.5 11
40 86 4
35 85.5 4
30 83 0
20 82- 0
Basically – it is very difficult, particularly for RHP, to survive at the big league level if you don’t have at least average fastball velocity (>90mph). Sowers last year averaged 88.2 mph, although that number is somewhat deflated I think by late season arm fatigue. His best number was 89.7 in 2008. Huff last year sat at 90.1 mph. Both of these guys are lefties which gives them a little advantage, but they both thread the needle a bit with their fastball velocity. I can’t imagine Sowers suceeding without some significant deception in his delivery. Huff’s number from last year is, I think, also a little down because of some arm issues he had going into the season so I think there is reason to think that number can come up a little.
by APV on Feb 24, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Significant Indians who featured an average fastball below 90.5 last season:
Masa (90.4)
J Todd (90.4) – but Todd uses a cutter as his primer pitch
D Huff (90.1)
J Smith (89.5) – but he’s got the sidearm delivery thing
J Lewis (89.2) hmm….
J Sowers (88.2)
T Ohka (87.6)
A Laffey (87.4) – but his fastball is really a true sinker
If you look back at the 2008 numbers you get a very similar group of pitchers.
I would think it doesn’t always apply to relievers. Most of them have a strong secondary pitch to go along with the fastball, and they can typically go all out in 1 inning instead of giving opposing batters a different look.
Obviously velocity is a big deal, but what typically sets starters apart from relievers is command and/or secondary stuff (as well as durability, but that’s a little harder to judge). So it might not be as black and white as the article states.
Looking at it another way, it’s pretty scare that Lewis and Masa were so low considering that they could go “all out” for one inning.
that’s true, but what really hurt them was below-average off speed stuff. Lewis’ fastball had graded out as average to above-average in terms of efficiency, but his secondary pitches were always shaky and when you lose some command of your fastball, hitters can sit on those weak breaking balls/changeups and hammer them.
All in all, below average fastball velocity gives you less room for error, but the same goes for below average secondary offerings.
Lewis’ fastball grading out as avg. / above-avg. may be due to an ability to be deceptive in his delievery. But, your point still stands, his off-speed stuff may just well be below average. In general, his “stuff” is probably below average, but he can get by with his fastball. Maybe he should limit his change-ups a bit and go more fastball heavy.
I think throwing the ball in the proper direction is kind of assumed.
by VA tribe fan on Feb 24, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
Actually I suppose you could argue that it should mean both speed and control. But sarcasm was more fun.
by VA tribe fan on Feb 24, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
Somewhat related to this (maybe) – has anyone noticed the similarity in the pithers Cleveland has been acquiring of late? Hagadone is listed as 6’5" 230. Knapp is 6’5" 235. Connor Graham is 6’6" 235. Scott Barnes is 6’4" (though only listed as 185). Joe Gardner (last year’s 3rd rd pick) is 6’4" 220. Alex White, the small member of the group, is 6’3". These are big guys (Sowers is 6’1" 180, Huff is 6’2" 190, Laffey is 6’0" 185…). Just something I’ve noticed…
Nope…that’s Sowers.
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Feb 24, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
Your ex is more like Masterson or Price.
by Matt in LA on Feb 24, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But…but…
…CONSENSUSTOPFIVETALENTNUMBERONEBASEBALLAMERICAMLBLEGACYDAVECAMERON!!!
by fleerdon on Feb 25, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
I can just see someone erasing the whole strategy whiteboard on this one … “No no no no AVOID scrawny lefties! Like the plague! Big righties big righties!”
by Jay on Feb 24, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, is this the strategy for acquiring faster-throwing pitchers? I suspect height is more important that overall bulkiness…release point/perceived velocity.
by cleveland teamer on Feb 24, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
Lot of speed comes from big legs as well, right? Or is someone with a scouting background about to embarrass me?
Steel Nick
It can come in different forms, some pitchers like the Benes brothers had massive legs that generated a lot of their speed when pushing off the rubber.
Can’t read the article (not a subscriber), but is there any explanation as to why 90 and 91 are lumped together the 90-92 range has the largest number of pitchers? Shouldn’t the increments are the center get smaller or at least not larger?
Also, the concept of most pitchers being above average hurts my head. If most successful RHPs are above average, doesn’t that mean the sheer volume of pitchers coming up lies in the below average portion, since they all wash out so quickly and are replaced by other below average guys? Who’s signing and developing all these guys that project so poorly?
Do I just not understand what average means?
This list is the number of pitchers who threw at least 300 fastballs with the above average fastball speed in 2009 (as of mid-August). More people are at and above average, because you aren’t seeing the whole distribution of talent – you are just seeing one end of it. There is significant selection bias, this is Goldstein’s main argument, in who makes it to and stays in the majors. The rest of the distribution, the average and below guys, are the guys who don’t stick around the big leagues but populate many a AAA, AA, and local adult rec league team.
It’s a little confusing, but it is the 230 pitchers who had thrown 300 pitches by the August date of the article. When he says
Nearly 92 percent of all right-handers have at least average velocity, 80 percent are above average
I believe he is just using the grade of 50 (89 mph) asthe defined “average” on the scouting scale. At least, that’s how the numbers make sense. You can take this as a criticism of the scale, I guess, but the takeaway point is that there are very few starters in the bigs with a fastball that averages under 89, and having a fastball under 90.5 puts you in the bottom 20%.
Just like the children of Lake Wobegon!
"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay
by woodsmeister on Feb 25, 2010 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
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