Projecting and Predicting the 2010 Tribe: Offense
by APV on Feb 3, 2010 10:53 PM EST
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PrintWith spring training just around the corner most of the well known projection systems have completed their expectations for the upcoming season. These systems vary in the factors they consider, how much "human input" they allow for, and their general level of rigor. I thought it would be interesting to see what they expect for our players, though, and what we predict relative to these projections. Most of us are pretty Tribe-crazy and have a fair amount of human knowledge ourselves about these players and I wonder whether our best predictions (guesses) can do better than some of these systems. Here I am only concerned with rate stats as I don't want to get into the craziness of predicting playing time, and I'm only concerned with over and under. But here are my predictions (guesses) on our offensive players and their performance relative to their projections. (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and FANS from Fangraphs.com; PECOTA from baseballprospectus.com; CAIRO from rlyw...)
Bill James: .266/.334/.468, CHONE: .263/.337/.457, Marcel: .270/.336/.457, FANS: .269/.350/.463, PECOTA: .259/.345/.471, CAIRO: .258/.346/.463
Everyone loves new toys, and our projected starting firstbaseman is no different. All of the systems except CHONE and Marcel have him hitting over .800 this season. I'm dubious, not because I don't like LaPorta, but I'm concerned about him taking some time to adjust and the effects of spending much of the off-season on crutches.
Prediction: UNDER
Bill James: .294/.358/.421, CHONE: .297/.365/.432, Marcel: .292/.360/.425, FANS: .292/.360/.408, PECOTA: .291/.363/.430, CAIRO: .273/.342/.393
Aside from CAIRO, these are pretty tightly clustered projections in the .760-.800 range. Those seem pretty sensible, but I think Asdrubal stands a solid chance of outperforming these numbers. I think Asdrubal is going to benefit in 2010 not just from natural development, but from having a slightly more stable lineup around him.
Prediction: OVER
Bill James: .257/.323/.399, CHONE: .262/.328/.400, Marcel: .262/.321/.428, FANS: .265/.316/.420, PECOTA: .255/.322/.385, CAIRO: .245/.316/.366
The stupid monkey is the "most" bullish on Valbuena, expecting him to put up just shy of a .750 OPS. CAIRO is again the most pessimistic, putting Valbuena in at .682. Not the most heartwarming projections. I love the way Valbuena sprays linedrives around the field, but his contact ability is a problem, and one that I think he might struggle to adjust with in 2010. i'm going to split the difference here and predict that Valbuena is under the most optimistic forecast and above the low end, so somewhere in the .700-.750 range.
Prediction: EVEN
Bill James: .269/.336/.424, CHONE: .259/.328/.408, Marcel: .267/.330/.423, FANS: .270/.329/.428, PECOTA: .269/.341/.430, CAIRO: .259/.326/.411
CHONE thinks Peralta is going to be Valbuena in 2010, with a .736 OPS. PECOTA likes Jhonny the best as a .770 guy. I think the change of coaching and a little contract pressure push Jhonny back up around the .800 mark for most of the season.
Prediction: OVER
Bill James: .280/.372/.360, CHONE: .255/.343/.349, Marcel: .275/.353/.440, PECOTA: .261/.346/.365, CAIRO: .252/.356/.352
Marson is a bit of a mystery. Marcel, which is bullish on him (.793), apparently has him confused with someone who has some power. I think the Bill James one is closer to what we will see, which is higher than most of them, but not as high as the Marcel figure.
Prediction: EVEN
Bill James: .293/.383/.467, CHONE: .284/.372/.460, Marcel: .298/.387/.495, FANS: .301/.392/.488, PECOTA: .278/.383/.459, CAIRO: .294/.390/.481
Everyone except CHONE loves Choo. I do too, but...I can't help quite shaking a nagging nervousness about Choo's injury history rearing its head.
Prediction: UNDER
Bill James: .272/.369/.484, CHONE: .272/.370/.484, Marcel: .264/.366/.469, FANS: .274/.374/.496, PECOTA: .271/.385/.485, CAIRO: .261/.368/.469
I am optimistic about Grady. I anticipate him coming into the season refocused after last year's injury problems. I'm guessing at some point during the season he gets dropped to the #3 spot in the lineup and thrives in that position.
Prediction: OVER
Bill James: .268/.342/.335, CHONE: .275/.349/.363, Marcel: .292/.357/.416, FANS: .280/.346/.367, PECOTA: .281/.352/.375, CAIRO: .257/.345/.329
Where Brantley's projections diverge is on his power - ranging from the non-existant (.329 - CAIRO) to the not so bad (.416 - Marcel). I'm not sure about Brantley's power, but I have a feeling he manages to get on base better than any of these systems give him credit for, evening out things.
Prediction: EVEN
Bill James: .275/.385/.495, CHONE: .256/.351/.446, Marcel: .251/.347/.425, FANS: .272/.364/.474, PECOTA: .256/.362/.418, CAIRO: .254/.365/.435
Last week I would have instinctively said "under". The second half of 2009 was pretty painful to watch. But after going back through his numbers the other day I am not far more optimistic. I have some faith that the Indians training staff will get Hafner the preparation he needs to avoid last year's struggles.
Prediction: OVER
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good analysis. I agree with most of the under/overs except for a couple.
Choo: I guess I am just not worried about his injury problems as much. I think he might have passed through the injury stretch. I put him at even.
LaPorta: Maybe I am just being optimistic but I feel he will end up being a little better than these projections. I have no reason to believe this except hope and my gut really. that said, I would still probably take about even on him.
There are 56 projections listed, but in none of them does a player slug .500 or more. Last year, 42 qualified players in the majors slugged .500 or more.
Projecting individuals to slug over .500 is different than projecting how many in a group will reach that level… you can rationally bet against each individual to slug .500 while simultaneously betting that a certain (positive) number overall will do it.
Exactly, all of these systems work that way. You can see it the ERAs, which generally will range from the upper threes to lower fives for established major leaguers, yet there will be plenty of guys outside of that window during the season.
With all that, this team may not put up a very high slugging percentage, especially if Marson, Brantley, and t.a.l.e., Valbuena have a lot of at-bats.
I’m wagering on Choo and Grady both hitting .500.
Marson’s MARCEL slugging percentage is the highlight of these projections.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 4, 2010 6:05 AM EST up reply actions
remember that of the non-Fans projections, Marcel is the stupidest. It basically is guessing that Marson will age like the average player and add power. Marson’s career up to this point would suggest otherwise.
by APV on Feb 4, 2010 7:48 AM EST up reply actions
Its possible that he adds power, and many players start adding power at this age but it is unlikely and not at all likely enough to consider in a projection.
I am higher on marson than many and I still think it is wildly optimistic. it is not impossible but just very improbable.
I like Marson a lot. An awful lot. But I think at a peak he is something like a .310/.400/.410 kind of guy, which is great, but not exactly the power Marcel is projecting for him this season.
Have we determined that he’s basically Brad Ausmus, circa-1995?
I've really got to change my signature.
I hope so — we can trade him to the Astros, like, five times.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
I totally agree with you. I feel something more like .280/.367/.370 is about what he hits (and I am slightly optimistic) but that is very high what Marcel projects. I totally agree. It is not completely out of the question but the likelihood of it is very very low. some marson pessimists might say it is nearly impossible too.
I seem to agree with the bill james projections the most. they usually fall right around where i feel players will hit.
So on a more macro level, what’s the over/under on total runs scored for the Indians next year? I’m going with 760.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
That would be our lowest total since ‘03. I think we’ve got a little more upside than that…I’m going to go 815
by APV on Feb 4, 2010 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
I’m betting Jay fewer than last year (773). If I win he has to wear a John Maynard Keynes Meets Bertrand Russell baseball hat. If I lose, I shoot myself.
by odradek on Feb 4, 2010 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If you can find that hat, I’ll wear it regardless. I may also shoot you regardless.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2010 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I think the offense might be slightly better then last year (but not significantly). we will have hafner healthy and producing the whole year, i feel asdrubal will improve, and even though we lost victor, sizemore will be back healthy too. I am feeling about 780
I think 780 is low. Yes we lost Vic – but as you point out we’ve got a healthier Hafner back and a healthy Sizemore. Brantley is an improvement on Francisco/Garko in LF and hopefully will finish the season leading off. LaPorta is an upgrade over Garko at 1B (regardless how much of a nice guy and competent Garko is). I think Choo, already a beast, is still developing. I hope for a better performance from Peralta since there’s no doubt where he’ll be playing (please up your trade value, Jhonny). Cabrera is still young and developing as well. Although there is no replacing Vic, there’s enough people around here that think highly of Marson that it’d be foolish of me to dismiss him – so it’s not like we’re putting up a catcher who can’t hit his weight or has no power. Valbuena is one of the biggest wildcards. I honestly don’t know what to expect from him. I like that he sprays hits all over in a solid fashion. But he’s young and I don’t know what he projects to long-term.
I’m actually quite bullish on our offense. I think we’re already better then last year, and I think we’ll continue to develop (and get healthier). I think our SP is the real concern this year, not the offense. I say 830.
I just wanted to believe.
Breakout candidates?
- LaPorta
- Valbuena
- Asdrubal (may already be near his ceiling)
- Santana (could “go Kouzmanoff” on the International League)
- Marte (ha!)
That’s really about it. Brantley and Marson are pretty raw and will be doing well just to survive the season.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not disputing Brantley/Marson being raw. Will Brantley by the AS break be equivalent to Garko/Francisco in LF? Especially if LaPorta is also getting playing time there?
I kinda view our offense in three parts – 1. established vets who were injured (or who otherwise underperformed in ’09 – Peralta) such as Hafner & Sizemore; 2. established ML players who are still improving, albeit minimally – Asdrubal and Choo; 3. Rookies, or near rookies who have upside – LaPorta, Brantley, Marson.
Part of the reason I’m fairly bullish on our offense is that even if there is simply partial improvement on one, two or all three of these areas, then we will see an improvement in our output from last year. There’s a lot of room for continued growth, health and improvement in our lineup. Not all need to happen, but I think there’s a good chance some of it will happen which would lead to an improvement on last year’s numbers.
I just wanted to believe.
I like this outlook. All for it.
But: Will Brantley by the AS break be equivalent to Garko/Francisco in LF?
The answer is most likely no. To get there, he’d have to take that significant leap in power, or bat around 320 like he did in Huntsville that year. Those are both possibilities, but short of 50%.
Will Brantley by the AS break be equivalent to Garko/Francisco in LF?
I refuse even to consider grading Brantley based on a Garko/Francisco standard. Not only is it irrelevant, but also YUCK.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2010 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon Kruse’s breakout candidates for 2010 (breakouts being defined strictly in fantasy terms here) include three Indians (plus Michael Aubrey!): Joe Smith, Matt LaPorta and Luis Valbuena join Belisario, Feliz and Gallardo.
That 2003 Indians draft is looking better and better!
</puke>
by Jay on Feb 4, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
Two other points I failed to mention. I firmly believe Marte will perform better if given a chance to play on a regular basis. I generally have moved past talking about Wedge, but I think he did a real disservice to the organization last August/September when he stopped playing Marte (for no apparent reason) when it was the perfect opportunity to see if regular playing time would equate better numbers. Second, I don’t think we need to have “breakout years” from anyone. It’d be great to see LaPorta OPS over .900 – but I think we still improve even if he doesn’t.
I just wanted to believe.
I’m also in this camp. It seems to be an unpopular opinion around here, but I’m simply not convinced that Marte suddenly forgot how to hit upon reaching the big leagues, regardless of what the stats from the equivalent of about one season of getting regular playing time say. With this being a rebuilding year anyway, I really hope that he gets the start at third pretty much every day for the first half, if for no other reason to determine exactly what we have in him before the next wave of prospects start crowding him out. It feels to us like he’s been around forever and accomplished nothing, but he’s barely two months older than Jordan Brown, for crying out loud. Although, come to think of it, that may be a stronger argument that Brown doesn’t have much upside than it is that Marte does.
I really hope that he gets the start at third pretty much every day for the first half,
Where is Jhonny playing?
I would totally prefer Marte at 3b over Jhonny (at least defensively). The problem is where you put Peralta. You can slide him back to SS and move Cabrera back to 2b if you have doubts about Valbuena, but you risk troubling Jhonny with yet another position change and taking Asdrubal out of what I feel is his most natural spot. Marte can play first until LaPorta returns or until Brantley is installed in LF and LaPorta is bumped to 1b.
If Peralta has a good 1st half, I would consider dealing him and moving Marte to third for the rest of the season.
I've really got to change my signature.
I sure wouldn’t mind seeing the “reverse shift” with a lefty on the mound. Why not keep Peralta viable at shortstop, and Marte and Asdrubal fresh at 3B and 2B? Seems to me this can only benefit the club both in terms of winning games and cultivating trade value.
by Jay on Feb 8, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Peralta doesn’t seem to respond well to playing different positions. Maybe that’s why his offensive performance was so bad in 2009. I think that’s why the FO wanted to keep him at short, rather than concede the obvious.
Even though I have come to the sad conclusion that Jhonny is a bum, I still don’t see Marte getting the third baseman’s job over Peralta.
Peralta hardly switched between positions at all — he played shortstop early in the season and then third base, but he didn’t go back and forth much if at all.
He also hit better after switching to third base than he had before at his usual position of shortstop.
In other words … I’m not buying it … and it doesn’t help that not only is the basic factual assertion wrong, but the correlation is reversed.
by Jay on Feb 8, 2010 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not making myself clear. All I’m saying is is that it could be Peralta doesn’t deal well with playing different positions. This would explain the Indians’ reluctance to use him as a gadabout, and to keep him at third once he had moved to that position. (I haven’t looked it up, but I don’t remember him playing SS after he was moved to third.) Maybe the reason he hit better at third is because he was finally in one position. He felt he could settle in.
Jhonny apparently has a fragile psyche. It could be he doesn’t like change. He heard the talk all year that he should be moved to third, and when he finally was shifted, he relaxed. Maybe you can’t play Jhonny at short three days and then at third for a few games.
Oops, I completely forgot to mention that part of my take on the Indians infield. I’m not part of the “fat shortstop is a lazy bum” crowd, but I have become convinced that Peralta is the odd man out over the next few years. He’s a good, solid player but I think he would be more valuable to a lot of other teams than he is to us. Right now, he’s solid production with a pretty favorable contract, but that will be expiring around the time we’ll probably be starting to contend again. I don’t think he has a ton of upside left, and by then the Chiz should offer similar production cheaper. I think we’ve seen what kind of asset we have in Peralta, and he’s more valuable to other clubs that to us. On the other hand, I don’t think we’ve ever gotten the chance to evaluate Marte properly, and I would like to see him get a shot at being the everyday third baseman. If he doesn’t get that, I don’t think he’ll be around much longer with as many utility infielders as we seem to have these days, and I think we could potentially end up selling very, very low on him.
by VA tribe fan on Feb 9, 2010 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
At the end of his back-loaded contract, coming off a terrible season, and in a terrible economy that produced shrinking salaries for players … Peralta no longer has a favorable contract. I think as an asset, with that contract, he’s pretty close to worthless at this point. That could change, of course.
by Jay on Feb 9, 2010 7:20 AM EST up reply actions
I keep hoping that some team out there is really desperate for a pretty good third baseman and wasn’t paying too much attention last year. I don’t want to admit to myself that other people having bad seasons needs to get added to the list of things that prevent Marte from getting playing time. For crying out loud, last year he stopped getting ABs near the end of the year in favor of Niuman Romero. I really, really don’t want to believe that this year there might finally actually be a good reason to not play him.
by VA tribe fan on Feb 11, 2010 2:32 AM EST up reply actions
I agree on a few things.
1. I do believe asdrubal is near his ceiling offensively but he is already a very good offensive player. he made a major jump and I think he could still jump. I think his ISO end up being about .140 and maybe hit close to 10 home runs. that being said, an optimistic view of his ceiling is 15 HR and 30 steals in his prime. I do agree though he is close to his ceiling.
2.I do agree that laporta will break out. I have feeling he will surprise a lot of people.
3. I agree brantley and marson are raw but I have a good feeling that they will make a smooth transition to the Majors. they are both guys who are patient hitters and get on base well. those kind of players, from what I have seen transition smoother into the MLB, but there still will be growing pains I think.
Well, I hope you’re right.
It’s worth considering that most projections out there have Asdrubal regressing to the mean a bit, i.e., falling back a little from his gains in 2009. I’m trying not to be the foolish optimist for once around here, but I do expect Asdrubal at least to consolidate the improvements he made last year and stay at that level, which is a big plus for the team going forward, even if he doesn’t continue to improve.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
When it comes to sports, I do tend to be on the more optimist side but at the same time I try very hard to be realistic.
I do not think asdrubal will get to the peak in his prime that I said was there. that is more of a ceiling for what he can do in his prime. I think he will hit similar to last year except hit a couple more HRs and increase his iso by a few points…I am predicting a .290/.362/430 with a slight regression in steals (to about 15) and an Iso up .005 (.130-.135). I think it will be similar though.
either way, if we get last yrs numbers from him, I would still be ecstatic
Not to specifically single out this comment, but what is all this Asdrubal ceiling bull floating around? Here’s my favorite Droobs stat: 11/13/1985.
I get a swell head when I see how deeply my propaganda has penetrated.
This must be what the Ayatollah felt like.
by Jay on Feb 6, 2010 1:50 AM EST up reply actions
Minions, Jay. Minions.
"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay
by woodsmeister on Feb 6, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
You could’ve name-checked Hitler there, but that would have been in very poor taste. So I guess Ayatollah is where it’s at for brainwashing without the stigma of mass genocide.
Or are you talking about the professional wrestler?
I've really got to change my signature.
I am fairly bullish honestly on our offense. I think I was kind of playing the projection safe. my true feeling might be more like 800 (but maybe not all the way to 830). I really think asdrubal will improve.
I do agree with you I think the offense is slightly better already (but not by much). plus I wasn’t considering the factor of not having wedge start the team off at a molasses pace.
I agree on brantley as an improvement too. I think I just was tentative a little to be too bullish (and didn’t factor in the coaching change which I am surprisingly bullish on)
It’s impossible to get you to commit to anything other than what someone says to refute you.
by Brad D on Feb 4, 2010 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I am a big fan of Marson. But he has no power.
Also! LaPorta may not be recovered until May. (Four to six month recovery on his hip surgery would, conceivably out until mid- April.)
I get being an Indians (Cleveland?) fan, but it’s February. Pitchers and Catchers report in 2 weeks. There’s been no indication that LaPorta’s recovery has been slowed. I refuse to be anything but optimistic.
I just wanted to believe.
You have to be bullish on the team at this time of year.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 4, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Looking at the offense, its hard to pick out who is NOT expected to equal or improve on their performance from last year. Typical February wishful thinking? I dunno – the guys with the most experience, Peralta, Haf and Grady, should do better next year than last. The rest:
Droobs and Choo: I’ll be satisfied if they repeat their performance, but its not hard to argue that they will get better as they improve their already good pitch recognition skills.
LaPorta: I think he’s gonna be a stud. He’s much more athletic than I thought he’d be, and unlike Marte (who I still hold out hope for at the corners) he can drive the ball even when its outside his preferred swing path.
Valgood: It comes down to lefties and playing time. Improve his splits and you have a regular. I’m not as worried about his walks as he’s demonstrated a decent ratio in over 1700 minor league at bats.
Brantley: The biggest question mark for me amongst the newbies. Comparing him to last year is pretty much irrelevant. I can see him anywhere in the spectrum from a legitimate high obp leadoff threat to Willy Tavares with less defense.
Marson: I like him. The anti-Shoppach. No replacement for Vic, but then, Vic’s replacement will be here soon. If only due to his obp, Marson won’t be a hole in the lineup while he’s holding the place. Remarkably consistent in the minors with walk ratios.
I guess the only thing that saves me from checking myself that this is undue offseason optimism is the fact that I don’t extend the same “should be better” projections to the starting pitching.
It’s hard to pick out who is NOT expected to equal or improve on their performance from last year.
Position players, how about Choo and Asdrubal?
Someone is going to get worse, or underperform. Maybe Jhonny gets even worse, or Hafner can’t play. That’s the way it works, unless you have a 2005 White Sox run of extraordinary fortune.
I don’t see anything wrong with tempering expectations. Even though I think the 2010 Tribe will suck, I still can’t wait for April 4.
Yeah – there are a lot of guys who could step back and not represent much of a surprise. I’m an optimist, but even I don’t think everyone is going to get better.
yes…it is often the guy people will least expect. often it is out of nowhere. picking who will underperform in february is pretty much throwing darts blind at a dartboard.
Some people like to just dive right into the discussion without reading the article. It’s an interesting phenomenon.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2010 8:25 AM EST up reply actions
Choo and Droobs? If you were to hone in on players league wide, team allegiance aside, these are two guys that any self-respecting saber-scout would project for a good 2010. No?
All four projection sources cited by Fangraphs show both of those guys sliding back just a little bit in 2010 from their 2009 numbers. In both cases, it’s basically due to a little BABIP regression.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2010 8:30 AM EST up reply actions
But they’re missing the Mike Redmond Leadership factor than certainly makes up for BABIP regression!
I've really got to change my signature.
Hello, Cleveland! We are the Mike Redmond Leadership Factor and we’re here to rock you a couple times a week! Sometimes, we will rock the clothes right off of us!
"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay
by woodsmeister on Feb 5, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
MRLF is the airport code for La Flor, Costa Rica. One of the central features of La Flor is the new recycling center. Recycling is an apt description of the Mike Redmond Experiment.
I’d say yes and no. They both did really good things last year to put their offensive game together, which is certainly great for their long-term outlook. But they also both made pretty big strides forward last year in their numbers. Big stride forwards are great, but you do run against some regression to the mean pullback in those instances. That said, I think these guys are basically toss-ups. I went over with Asdrubal and under with Choo, but I don’t see either of those as very much over or very much under.
by APV on Feb 5, 2010 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
Choo actually regressed in 2009 from 2008, but not enough to satisfy the curve-smoothers.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Damn – that’s what I get for not looking things up
by APV on Feb 5, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
yes that is technically true, but you are comparing a full season to about 2/3 of a season. I don’t know if this is just choo or if this was an effect of wedge and his odd pacing in general, but choo when he has played has lit it up in august, september, and october. he got off to a slightly slower start in april, may and june of this year. he also started off slow when he came back from injury in june of ‘08 (but whether that was injury or just starting slow like all of wedge’s players seemed to have done is not certain).
Yes, he regressed purely in OPS and OPS+ but I that could be for many reasons (including the fact that he didn’t play in april or may in ‘08 where everyone seems to slump with wedge). we also don’t know how the team will start with acta as manager.
yes, I will admit his OPS+, OPS, and ISO dropped, but he became a more complete player. his UZR went from -8.3 (per 150 games) to -.8. his Range factor also went up significantly. he also had much more speed and stole more bases. this makes him a better player (and he also had a better steal # too).
his WAR total should not be counted b/c it is cumulative, but if you divide WAR by the number of games, he had .299 in 2008, and .334 in 2009. that is 5.25 more WAR over 150 games.
In short. yes choo regressed, but I do not think he is on a down slope. he also improved in other areas making him a complete player. he was still great at the plate and even though he regressed slightly in power, he was IMO more valuable in 2009 than in 2008 (per game too, because in ’09 he also played more).
Seems like you’re putting in an awful lot of effort to defend a guy who doesn’t really need defending. Nobody thought he could sustain his 2008 rate stats, and it was great to see him even come close in 2009. I’ll take it!
Did he become a “more complete player?” I don’t know. That would suggest that he was less complete before. I don’t think he was, but mainly, I’m not worried about it. Seems like he could still use some work on defense, but I think everyone should be pretty damned please with his “completeness.”
Saying he “regressed” doesn’t imply that he’s on a downward slope, so we agree about that. Given Choo’s age, “regression” more directly implies that his 2009 numbers seem closer to his “true ability level.” There is no reason to think he is heading downhill, or will be anytime soon.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2010 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
The more that I look at this team, the more I think of 2004 where we played possum for a while and all of a sudden we had the 11/2 game lead in August over the Twins before the Rick White Minnesota game.
But then I look at the 2004 offense, and can we realistically expect to recreate… in that year, Blake out of nowhere with the 122 OPS+, the 111 OPS+ season everyone forgets to credit Matt Lawton, Coco Crisp’s underrated season, Victor out of the catcher’s spot with 600 PA’s of brilliance, and of course, the 1st year where Travis was Pronk.
Wow, Jason Davis had 19 starts that year.
We never had the lead. We won 10 of 11 to pull within one game of the Twins on August 14, and we played them the next day with the chance to pull into a tie. We lost that game — Rick White — and lost the next eight after it, too.
2004 was a tease. The grinders got almost all the way to the top and then collapsed, as Jay noted. Certainly a good comparison to what may be in store for this new season, only let’s avoid the collapse part.
I’ll settle for a good August tease this season. I’m old enough now to appreciate it.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Wouldn’t that be sweet. Meaningfull baseball in mid August. 900 runs? If we had the cast from 300 on our side (clemson girl would go nuts). But could they hit a curveball?
The name “300” suggests they can hit a curveball, but they can’t necessarily hit it very far.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
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