2010 Cleveland Indians draft preview
Andy Seiler has posted a draft preview for the Tribe, looking at the past 2 drafts and trying to figure out what to expect in June. It's a good read.
over 2 years ago
JP_Frost
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I believe Jay meant that the Indians are more likely to take a prep prospect if they pick in the first five. We haven’t seen them pick that high in a long time, so it’s hard to say whether the elements of their strategy that you so cogently observed will still apply. One thing we do know is that they seem to place a lot of emphasis on wood-bat league experience, so Chris Sale might be an interesting option. One other thing we know is that Bryce Brentz is made out of awesome.
by fleerdon on Feb 9, 2010 5:00 PM EST reply actions
I assume the Indians would consider Jameson Taillon , prep RHP from TX, if he is still available at five. In the top 10, you have to go for high upside talent. Other than trading for prospects, It’s the only way for a team like the Indians to secure star-caliber talent. No more “pitchability” guys like Sowers in the top 10.
Seems to me that we have had plenty of star-caliber talent without any “high upside” Top 10 picks in recent memory. So there must be some other way to get it, no?
Sowers was considered a near-lock to be a solid #4 guy — soon — and possibly better. That is immensely valuable to a club, any club.
by Jay on Feb 9, 2010 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
I dream of a world where we don’t acquire star-caliber talent by periodically dismantling a team I’ve become emotionally invested in.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 9, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m not talking about “valuable” players. No doubt, even a cheap number four starter is valuable. Even Paul Byrd at number four/five is valuable. I’m talking about the kind of players the Indians can’t afford to sign on the open market.
Players like Sizemore, Lee, and Victor. You have to take guys like that in the first round; there’s no other way to get them.
Everybody should get ice cream every day.
And what I’m saying is, maybe you have it backwards.
Maybe the draft primarily is where you get “valuable” players.
As for who we can and can’t sign on the open market, we can sign Paul Byrd, but we can’t sign ten of them. We need “merely valuable” players in significant quantity.
I think this idea that you can target impact players in the draft likely is a farce. At every draft slot after the first few, that draft pick is a win if the player becomes an everyday player or starting pitcher in the bigs, even just a marginal one.
I’m cool on McGuire, at least as a #5 pick.
Here are two ACC juniors.
PLAYER IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 H/9 White 107 10.2 3.7 0.8 6.9 McGuire 178.1 9.5 3.7 0.8 7.9
I get that there’s a lot more to it than this, but I’d still feel as though we’d moved up ten draft slots from last year just to acquire a marginally less intriguing player. Maybe that’s just a testament to how far White fell to end up with us, and plainly McGuire will have a little more time to boost his stock.
by fleerdon on Feb 11, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
You’re just jealous of your “pre” tag.
Honest answer, I looked up Cole, McGuire, and Sale.
It’s occurred to me lately, though, that the majority of prospect analysis is awfully interchangeable. I mean, to the extent that you could just mock up a profile — “He’s a _________ player, sound ________ instincts and high ______ intelligence. Has ______ pitches, good movement on the _______, needs to tighten up the _______ and locate the fastball a bit better to get professional hitters out. Athleticism is ______, which projects ________ on his development.” — and MadLib that with basebally words, and suddenly the only difference between Sowers and Verlander is height and handedness.
Short story long, (a) it’s nice to have somebody who is both knowledgeable and can actually write put something like this together — thanks, Andy — and (b) the prospect of actually getting somebody better than White is genuinely exciting. Not to mention, what else do we have to look forward to?
by fleerdon on Feb 11, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
Let's see how bad I can make a guy sound
"He’s a crafty player, with sound ducking instincts and high caveman intelligence. Has 1.5 pitches, good movement on the treadmill, needs to tighten up the muscles in his legs and locate the fastball a bit better to get professional hitters out. Athleticism is questionable, which projects negatively on his development."
"I'm a baseball lifer. It's what I do." —Manny Acta
by westbrook on Feb 11, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
it’s nice to have somebody who is both knowledgeable and can actually write put something like this together — thanks, Andy —
It just goes to show how prevelant memes are here, but I really thought for a second that you were directing this at APV and purposely getting his name wrong the way Andrew has been experiencing. Then I checked the author of the link. Woof.
Overall though I agree with your post.
Steel Nick
"He’s a record player, sound baffle instincts and high lower intelligence. Has deafening pitches, good movement on the spleen, needs to tighten up the bass drum and locate the fastball a bit better to get professional hitters out. Athleticism is overrated which projects vomit on his development."
I like this game.
I've really got to change my signature.
He’s a nerdy player, sound trekkie instincts and high Harvardesque intelligence. Has sales pitches, good movement on the elevator, needs to tighten up the belt and locate the fastball a bit better to get professional hitters out. Athleticism is shaky, which projects lasers on his development
"I'm a baseball lifer. It's what I do." —Manny Acta
I think McGuire’s upside is a little higher and he has a better chance of sticking as a starter. You’re right though, they are somewhat similar pitchers and a lot of that has to do with White being better than your average #15 draft pick.
You have to look at each draft seperately though, and just because we draft 10 spots higher doesn’t necessarily mean we will draft a player who’s that much better than a mid-1st round pick in a different year.
Actual question for Andy: Do you see the first 3-4 players being more or less set in stone, or is it more “Harper and then anybody’s guess”? Put another way, which players do you think are mostly likely to be off the board by the time the Indians pick?
by fleerdon on Feb 9, 2010 5:18 PM EST reply actions
Harper’s not a sure thing to go first. From what I’ve read, preseason top guys are Harper, Anthony Ranaudo (RHP out of LSU), and Jameson Taillon (RHP, TX HS).
Yeah, these are the top three.
The only way that Harper, Ranaudo, and Taillon current reach Cleveland is if their signability is in question. They’re the top three right now, and Colon’s just attractive because he’s a very good shortstop. However, the triumvirate at the top still has time to suffer through a bad season, or just not develop as expected, a la Grant Green last year.
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