The Pitchers 2004 vs. 2010

by bewwolv on Mar 1, 2010 11:19 PM EST

Shapiro has often said that he was forced to rebuild the roster when he took over, and that the cupboard was bare. I think he came to a similar conclusion last year, and used the assets he had at the major league level to start the same process on an accelerated timetable. In this way, you could say that rather than having to go through the 2002 and 2003 seasons, the Indians get to skip from 2001 to 2004.

I want to examine the status of the roster today versus the roster at the most comparable period in the recent past (2004), so I will start with the pitching depth.

I have suspected for a while that the pitching depth the Indians currently have outpaces the pitching depth that was present in 2004 both in number and in quality. This is investigated below, with my conclusions. The lists ignore a couple guys projected to end up in the bullpen (Connor Graham, Bryan Price), although several listed could also end up there when its all said and done.

The Pitchers: 2004

Sabathia Age 23 Season in Cleveland

K/BB 2.14, WHIP 1.295, H/9 8.7, K/9 6.4

Lee Age 24 Season between Kinston/Akron/Buffalo

K/BB 2.05, WHIP 1.343, H/9 7.8, K/9 8.8

Westbrook Age 25 Season in Cleveland

K/BB 1.04, WHIP 1.489, H/9 9.6, K/9 3.9

Guthrie Age 24 Season between Kinston/Akron (2003)

K/BB 2.2, WHIP 1.362, 9.8 H/9, 5.5 K/9

Miller Age 19 Season between Low A/Kinston (2004)

K/BB 3.8, WHIP 1.102, H/9 7.2, K/9 10.2

Davis Age 22 Season at Kinston/Akron (2002):

K/BB 2.4, WHIP 1.368, H/9 9.6, K/9 6.4

Cruceta Age 21 Season at Akron

K/BB 2.03, WHIP 1.267, H/9 7.8, K/9 7.4

F. Cabrera Age 21 Season at Akron

K/BB 2.88, WHIP 1.248, H/9 7.9, K/9 9.5

Carmona Age 19 Season at Low A

K/BB 6.14, WHIP .90, H/9 7.3, K/9 5.0

I am sure that I missed a few guys. There is some hindsight bias built into this, obviously, because I tried to include guys that stood out in my memory. If I missed anyone, point it out so they can be included. I tried to use the most relevant numbers, though that is subject to interpretation.

Sowers was chosen in the 2004 draft, so he doesn't show up. Ricardo Rodriguez had just been traded.

We can see that Sabathia was holding his own as a 22 year old in the majors (low K numbers though), and that future success was by no means assured for Westbrook (although the chosen metrics ignore his groundball tendencies). Lee shows pretty well here, with the K numbers in particular being good. The big surprises are the "prospects" that were going to make up the future of the Indians pitching staff as of 2004. I actually had forgotten how dominant Adam Miller was (which we won't go into). The likes of Jason Davis and Jeremy Guthrie were well short of impressive, particularly given Guthrie's age. Most surprising to me was Cruceta's profile, which is quite similar to that of one Jeanmar Gomez (probably not good news for Gomez fans). Also, Fernando Cabrera put up pretty good numbers in Akron, though he only threw roughly half the season in the rotation.

Edited to add Carmona, who I can't believe I forgot.

The Pitchers 2010

Rondon Age 21 Season between Kinston/Akron

K/BB 4.72, WHIP 1.175, H/9 8.8, K/9 8.4

Hagadone Age 23 Season in High A (45 IP)

K/BB 2.46, WHIP 1.111, H/9 5.2, K/9 11.8

Knapp Age 18 Season Low A

K/BB 2.62, WHIP 1.237, H/9 6.8, K/9 11.4

Carrasco Age 22 Season at AAA

K/BB 3.29, WHP 1.236, H/9 8.5, K/9 8.5

A. Perez Age 19 Season between Low A and Kinston

K/BB 3.24, WHIP 1.172, H/9 8.0, K/9 8.4

House Age 19 Season at Low A

K/BB 2.22, WHIP 1.310, H/9 8.5, K/9 7.3

Gomez Age 20 Season between Kinston/Akron

K/BB 2.76, WHIP 1.215, H/9 8.2, K/9 7.6

Barnes Age 21 Season at A/AA

K/BB 2.82, WHIP 1.265, H/9 8.3, K/9 8.7

Masterson Age 24 Season in Cleveland (57 IP, some of which came out of bullpen)

K/BB 4.49, WHIP 1.587, H/9 8.8, K/9 8.2

Huff Age 24 Season in Cleveland

K/BB 1.59, WHIP 1.558, H/9 11.2, K/9 4.6

Laffey Age 24 Season in Cleveland

K/BB 1.04, WHIP 1.619, H/9 10.1, K/9 4.4

The quality at the major league level is nowhere near that of the 2004 team, based on Sabathia alone. One could compare Masterson and his bullpen history with a young Jake Westbrook, only with more K's. Huff just doesn't have the swings and misses in his minor league history to stack up with Lee. Laffey gets short-changed by using last years numbers, both because of his GB tendencies and because it is probably his worst year on record.

The real difference is in the prospects. Even allowing for the fact that I missed a few, the difference in both quality and depth is stark. Hagadone and Knapp are both legitimate high-upside pitching prospects. Guys like Rondon and Carrasco have done nothing but put up good numbers at young ages. Guys like A. Perez, Scott Barnes and T.J. House are interesting options at the lower levels of the minors. Not included are Alex White and Kelvin De La Cruz, who are both solid pitching prospects.

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Comments

Thanks. Still thinking about this, there’s hope in numbers. By the way, Rondon was at Akron/Columbus last year.

by dgcambridge on Mar 2, 2010 11:55 AM EST reply actions

I just wanted to point out your statement about Lee and Huff.

You’re right that Lee had higher K rates, especially in the lower minors, but Huff has a career minor league K/9 of 8.4 himself which is pretty good, as well as a comparable H/9 and better BB/9 rates. Not saying that Huff will become as good as Lee, but he could match what Lee did from 04 to 06. I have a feeling Huff gets lost in the shuffle a bit because he was somewhat dissapointing in the majors last year, however we shouldn’t forget that he has an extremely solid track record in the minors and there’s enough time for him to try and translate that success to the bigs.

by JP_Frost on Mar 2, 2010 11:57 AM EST reply actions

Yea, this is probably somewhere where hindsight bias comes in. I know what Lee has done, so I project his success onto his earlier numbers.

You are right that their numbers are quite similar. This would be a good place to have some scouting background on both of them. The line on Huff is that he has an OK fastball and a plus change, I think. What is it with Lee? The cutter he throws is always talked about, and I seem to remember him having a good curveball.

by bewwolv on Mar 2, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

I had forgotten the number of interesting under-25 guys we had back in 2004. I’m not sure how highly a guy like Cruceta was actually viewed, but that was certainly an interesting group. I find it impossible not to be excited about the sheer volume of interesting pitchers we have added in the past 18 months, though. We get the same return rate we had on that 2004 group, we should be in a very good position pitching wise for some time.

by APV on Mar 3, 2010 5:03 PM EST reply actions

It’d be interesting to see a progress score breakdown on these guys vs. our current system…

by afh4 on Mar 3, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

I might have some of that data, but some of the older stat lines would require estimating a few numbers – so it might not be an apples to apples comparison

by APV on Mar 3, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

I think any disparities would be likely to even out over the whole roster.

This would an interesting experiment. Let me know if you want some help filling out the data, especially in the position/defense ratings.

by Jay on Mar 3, 2010 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

It’ll be a couple of weeks, but I can get it together before the season starts. I’ll start with these pitcher comps.

by APV on Mar 3, 2010 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

This would be really cool to see. I’ve been think about this for a while, just to set the expectation level after all of the moves the last two years and the new prospects.

by JK in CBus on Mar 5, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

So it turns out I can’t really get the data I need to make a direct 2004 v. 2010 comparison. But based on the numbers I do have, here is a set of comparables.

2004 Cliff Lee ~ 2010 Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco compares favorably on the numbers, but scouts loved Lee’s stuff. Edge: Even
2004 CC doesn’t really have a comp. He already had 46 major league victories, but he was far from dominant. It wasn’t really till 2005 that he really started his breakout. The obvious comparison is 2010 Fausto, though it is an uneven one. CC was consistently better, but Fausto’s 2007 is better than anything CC showed in his early years. Edge: 2004 CC
2004 Westbrook, coming off his first full major league season, might be compared to 2010 Masterson. Here, Masterson gets the edge statistically, but it will be interesting to see how their different stuff plays out. Edge: 2010 Masterson
2004 Guthrie was coming off his first pro season, was already 24, and had a truly mixed season. He dominated AA Akron and was pretty much garbage at Buffalo. Based on pro experience, I think the best comparison is 2010 Huff. But Huff is more advanced, has better numbers across the board, and just looks like a much better prospect. Edge: 2010 Huff
2004 Adam Miller was coming off his breakout season. The best comp here is Jason Knapp, but Miller was healthier (ironically) and had slightly better numbers against slightly more advanced competition. Edge: 2004 Miller
2004 Jason Davis is a mystery to me. The thing about Davis is he really only did one thing well as a minor leaguer – keep the ball in the park. His heavy fastball played well in the lower minors and his big frame made the powers that be intrigued. By dumb luck he ended up spending all of 2003 at the major league level, showing strongly that he wasn’t ready for that role. By the numbers, he was basically a non-prospect going into that 2003 season. For lack of a better comp I’m just going to say he was like Connor Graham and that the comparison is a wash. Edge: Even
2004 Cruceta makes a decent comp with 2010 Jeanmar Gomez. Gomez has better control and is on more of an upward trajectory than Cruceta. To be generous, I’ll call this one even. Edge: Even
2004 Fernando Cabrera was looking pretty good. He had already started to make his conversion to the bullpen, but was showing strong K numbers and was still keeping his control problems at bay. I’ll go with a Jess Todd comparison and I’ll take Todd, who is more advanced and has fared better against better competition. Edge: 2010 Todd
2004 Carmona was coming off that great pitcher of the year season in Lake County. 2010 Alex Perez seems like the best comparison. Again, I will conservatively say the two are even, despite Perez’s better numbers and higher level. Edge: Even
Other guys floating around in 2003…Betancourt had an outstanding season at Akron in 2003, albeit at the age of 28. Basically, I’ll take Chris Perez, younger and in the majors. Edge: C Perez
Kaz Tadano also had a fine season for Akron in 2003, something comparable to Josh Judy. Edge: Even
There are some other semi-interesting guys floating around going into 2004, but the reality is we haven’t checked off any of the following from the 2010 list: Alex White, Rondon, TJ House, Francisco Jimenez, Bryan Price, Scott Barnes, De La Cruz, Mahalic, Mitch Talbot, Pino, Putnam, Espino and on and on.

This wasn’t nearly as systematic as I hoped for, but it is hard not to say we have much more depth right now. I’ll say again that if we get the return rate we got off the 2004 crop we are looking very very good on the pitching side of things for awhile.

by APV on Mar 7, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Seems to me you have to use Rondon as the C.C. comp, and of course C.C. wins.

Hard for me to believe that Todd is better than Cabrera seemed to be at the time. Terrifying stuff. But I’ll take your word for it.

by Jay on Mar 7, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions

It was really 2004 that Cabrera’s stuff started to look really filthy, with his K/9 jumping from 9.5 to 11.0. Of course it was also then that his control began to enter the red zone 3.3 BB/9 to 5.2.

by APV on Mar 8, 2010 12:28 AM EST up reply actions