NJ Institute of Technology math professor projects Tribe for 67 wins
I didn't look at Professor Bukiet's methodology."Bukiet also applies his mathematical modeling to gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. He posts his analysis online at www.egrandslam.com."
He's a Mets fan, so his modeling must be suspect.
almost 2 years ago
odradek
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He’s a Mets fan, so his modeling must be suspect.
Not necessarily, it just means he probably overpays for everything
by APV on Mar 10, 2010 7:31 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
That’s a real bummer. If he’s off by approx. the same percentage this season, that means we’ll finish with about 50 wins and probably in last place.
I’m not emotional about iPad...
Probably never played a game of baseball in his life. Which means the opposite of what he says is true…or something.
Did Professor Bukiet mention that it’s the journey and not the destination? Of course not, it’s a gambling site. Everything can be reduced to the opportunity to win bets.
Does the intent and purpose of his modeling mean his predictions are inferior to CHONE? And what is the raison d’etre of PECOTA? Would you be so dismissive if he predicted 90 wins?
Besides, Bukiet says he does it for the kids, to show them how math can be fun. That’s what it says.
In fact, I am dismissive of each of these models that tries to predict a season’s outcome. Additionally, I take a dim view of fantasy league mentality. The elevation of individual achievement on team sports partially neutralizes the message of team.
I agree with you on both predictive models and fantasy-league mentality. I don’t understand the obsession with predicting winners in baseball, or focusing on models for future performance. It’s something to keep us occupied with in winter, but who cares, really? Nate Silver did create fivethirtyeight.com, so something worthy proceeded from it.
And you’re right about the journey. Who would want to fast-forward to Halloween to see the Yankees romping on their field, again?
Who would want to fast-forward to Halloween to see the Yankees romping on their field, again?
Excellent application of dour bile, though I know, I know, it’s only ST.
by YoDaddyWags on Mar 11, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Isn’t fivethirtyeight doing the same thing that Silver was doing with BP in a sense?
Your attitude could be, “I don’t get predicting elections in non-election years, who really cares? What’s the obsession with knowing who will be the president ahead of when it actually happens?”
Yeah, I kind of agree with that, but Silver has contributed greatly to political science. His models can be used to win elections, no?
Then you obviously don’t know enough math.
by Buckeye Brad on Mar 12, 2010 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
Seems right to me. The only thing that will bum me out on the 2010 season is going 59-103 or something like that. That means a lot of things went REALLY wrong.
I think finishing at 48-56 would mean that something went REALLY wrong.
by Chemo on Mar 11, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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