Five Questions: Cleveland Indians
Ryan's take on the Tribe for The Hardball Times.
almost 2 years ago
hans
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If the goal of the season is to increase the interest of the casual fan, can’t they do that with a bunch of bobbleheads, dollar dogs and, perhaps, an attempt at a new Snuggie record?
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Mar 17, 2010 7:38 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I suppose the casual fan comment is going to attract the most attention, so let me address it at more length here.
With the Dolans, dollars are going to follow attendance, and not the other way around. I’m not talking about the team going out and signing a top free agent, but keeping at least some of the players that came up through the system. We’ll still be here, because we love baseball and the Indians, but we’re not a large part of the fanbase. The Browns can get away with sucking for a decade because they’re the Browns. The Indians (and the Cavs) are always going to have to fight to keep those fans, especially in this economic environment.
So to prevent what we saw last year from repeating itself a couple years from now, it’s imperative that the Indians win back the part of the fanbase that was scorned. Yes, you can do that with the fireworks nights, bobbleheads, etc, but in order to keep them coming there has to be some kind of continuity on the field. Yes, the Indians will always be having to trade away players approaching free agency, but there also needs to be at least a group of players that are kept around so that the team’s competitive at least most of the time.
But what if keeping “fan favorites” around and being competitive most of the time are at odds with one another? I mean, there was a segment of the fan base that was sure C.C., Westbrook, and Hafner were all going to walk after their contracts were up. The team wound up re-signing two of those three, and those contracts have arguably hurt the team more than helped it.
Leading the discussion with the point that te Dolans will not spend money until the fans return implies you are saying the Dolans are cheap. Or at least that is how many “casual” fans might interpret the comment.
I don’t think that is what you are saying. In fact, the winning and the fans go hand-in-hand, and until the team starts winning, the Dolans will not gamble on free agents. There is a lot of correlation but it does not imply causation.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Mar 17, 2010 10:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
One of my first bosses had a sign in his office that read “The floggings will continue until morale improves.” The underlying message being that if you want to encourage a behavior, you should first make sure that you are not discouraging it.
The same principle seems to be at work with the Indians. Yes, operating an MLB club in Cleveland carries with it several built-in disadvantages. Some of the problems are with the front office, and have been well-documented here and elsewhere. But ownership needs to be out in front of this working to attract fans back to the park, not sitting back and waiting for them to show up. It just seems to me that whenever they’re asked questions about payroll, the answer normally references baseball economics, ticket sales, etc. It isn’t exactly encouraging a fan to show to a ballgame, never mind buying season tickets. People know these disadvantages exist, but at the end of the day all they want is to have a good time at the ballpark and to see their team have a shot at winning it all.
Seems to me that in several specific seasons — 2001, 2002, and 2009 — ownership spent on payroll well above expected ticket sales. At least, that’s what was reported. The 2009 club reportedly was going to take a loss unless the team made the playoffs, with the accompanying boost in late-season ticket sales. They lost that bet badly. So the criticism seems a bit unfair, unless you think those reports were specious.
It’s also dubious how much the extra revenue will really help the team win. We already lock up all our significantly over-performing youngsters through arbitration and a year or two into free agency. Everyone can afford the younger guys. That leaves only free agents and impending free agents, and what exactly have we been getting for those dollars? Hafner, Westbrook, Byrd, Dellucci, Oldberto?
Exactly how much worse off would we have been without those guys? Some of our best clubs — and some of the Marlins, Rays, Twins, and A’s’ best clubs — have been in the $50 million range, and some of our most disappointing ones have been $80 million and up. It is fair to argue that it doesn’t really make that much of a difference.
I also think the Indians are doing at least decent stuff with the ticket pricing-from the Gennaro stuff, with the variable game pricing, to this thing I hear the other day that was 4 tickets plus $40 worth of food/drink vouchers starting at $52: family fun pack or something.
It seems they have made an effort to lower the price point as compared to the league and lower it even further as compared to the Cavs and Browns, although I’m admittedly out of my depth here.
They’re also doing, and I’m going to screw these numbers up, tickets to every Ohio affiliate and an Indians game for something like $40 a head.
yeah, i liked that one. i just don’t live where i can do it, otherwise i think that’s a really neat idea.
i looked around right under my nose and eventually asked castrovince for this link which is useful:
http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/cle/ticketing/ticket_specials.jsp
Cleveland is a small market team-and the market is getting smaller each year. Not only in terms of population, but economic power, too. The disadvantages you speak of are substantial and worthy of inclusion into any player investment decisions.
That’s beside the point: the point that you make of attracting the casual fan as the goal still seems strange. As I point out, the team can achieve that goal through a variety of means.
Perhaps the goal is to establish a dynamic core of talent the team can count on for the next 3-5 years is the ultimate goal. From that core, the team can increase the potential revenue stream in the near future and be positioned to make safe investments in player acquisition and have more options for team moves.
As you point out in some of the other answers, 2010 is a season for establishing 3-4 of the starting pitchers and the everyday lineup for 2011. It’s possible we reach this goal by mid-season and get a little pennant fever this year (note: I say a “little”; we are in the AL Central, for goodness sakes). Or, maybe it happens by September. But when management looks back on the season come October/Novemer, if they do not see that strong core for 2011 and beyond, they will consider the season a failure.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Mar 18, 2010 10:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Cabrera was the other pleasant surprise; he solved right-handed pitchers, his previous weakness, and did everything but hit home runs.
I almost don’t care if Cabrera never hits another homer, just because his grand slam in the Yankee massacre was so sweet.
by cleveland teamer on Mar 17, 2010 11:57 PM EDT reply actions
Just how low can the population in the Cleveland area get? That is the question management should be looking at.
Will they ever sell out all 81 games? Most likely not. But they can still try for an 65-80% seating capacity for the season. Try to get all weekends full and shoot for 15-20K during the week.
Only way they will accomplish this is to have a winning team. No matter how many giveaways, etc you have, they won’t get the crowds without the Ws.
And the Wedge slow starts have only compounded this over the past 5 years. It is almost imperative from a ticket buying standpoint, the Indians finish the first 2 months at or over .500 if they hope to pull in extra fans the rest of the season.
Just how low can the population in the Cleveland area get? That is the question management should be looking at.
In conjunction with the RAND Corp., the Department of Analytics has determined that the lowest possible population for the Cleveland metropolitan area is zero.
by odradek on Mar 19, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Woo, RAND Corp. shout-out
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Mar 20, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
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