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Numbers That Matter (Or Don't)

With the Indians taking the field for the first time today, albeit in an intrasquad games, I was considering what was worth paying attention to during Indians Spring Training 2010. The answer, of course, is nothing. It's not difficult to find examples of spring stats that totally reversed themselves come regular season. Reasons for this abound and are obvious, from small sample size to biased samples as pitchers and hitters alike don't go full speed. 

However, I'm going to look at something all March, if for no other reason than actual box scores involving actual players will be posted regularly. So, what will I probably notice? 

Fausto Carmona's K/BB: As has been discussed around here in the last couple of days, Fausto exhibited excellent K/BB numbers in the minors, approaching and surpassing 3.0 in the high minors. Any chance for Fausto to return to the land of useful pitchers is going to hinge on his ability to actually throw strikes and thus induce a hitter to actually take the bat off of his shoulders. If Carmona can get rust covered major league hitters to believe his pitches are crossing the plate between their knees and letters, I'll be happy. 

Star-divide

Carlos Carrasco's H/9: Entering 2009, Carrasco was considered an elite prospect, one of the best in the Phillies' system. He'd risen quickly through the minors but as he'd done so, he'd developed a predilection for giving up hits-lots of hits. His H/9 could've been featured on a helium watch as it trended upward as he advanced levels before finally exploding last year in Lehigh Valley, where he surrendered 9.3 hits every 9 innings. Most of his other peripherals essentially held or improved (good work on the BB's, decent on HR's, K's) but the hits were too much to bear and his ERA ballooned, his value plummeted, and he became an unlikely centerpiece in a deal for a reigning Cy Young winner. 

Now, you can survive giving up hits (hey, Cliff Lee!), but it's not exactly a reassuring style and it helps if you've got a knack for grounders, which Carlos doesn't particularly. This is admittedly a rather fickle thing I've focused on but it fits with Carlos' scouting reports (straight fastball, weak makeup leads to grooving pitches while eyes well with tears) and the Indians seemed to have made inroads against Carrasco's issues in Columbus last year.  As a Clipper, he gave up only 6.6 H/9 and swelled his K/BB to over 5. There was a lot of luck in that showing but we've got to at least hope that Radinsky saw something and corrected it or, perhaps more likely, Pitcher Whispered our (other) young Venezuelan until he could operate his body like a piece of machinery from the safety of his superego. 

David Huff's K/9: Huff, yet another of our "pitcher not thrower"(s) who can't "record outs at the big league level" has to find a way to sit guys down. He struck out a downright Sowersian 4.6 per 9 last season in the majors, this after posting an 8.1 K/9 in his impressive minor league career. Jeremy has never really approached a number that high above the low minors, so perhaps there is hope that we are not staring down the barrel of another left-handed cap gun. The list of guys since 2006 who've posted K/9 under 5 while working as starters isn't exactly filled with young Kerry Woods but it is filled with guys who figure out how to succeed occasionally (mostly by inducing GB's). That said, I think we'd all rather see Huff add some K's and some GB's as opposed to walking the tightrope that Joe Saunders and Jon Garland make their living on. 

Justin Masterson's LHB/RHB Split: Masterson is a genuinely cool pitcher, a giant bald dude with a weird delivery and a live wire for an arm. The only problem is his decidedly uncool platoon split: LHB's devour Masterson like so many vultures on carrion and if he doesn't figure this out soon, he's going to have to rethink this starting pitching thing. If he can just get lefties a bit in check (like, maybe give up an .800 OPS instead of a .900 one, huh?) he can become an extremely valuable pitcher. His other big issue, control, stems from the platoon problem, as Masterson goes a 2.96 K/BB against righties, a 1.38 against lefties. I don't know how a huge righty sidearmer starts getting lefties out but I'll be watching to see if he does. Perhaps a trick pitch is in order. 

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Matt LaPorta's ISO: LaPorta's calling card as a stud prospect was big bop, as in HRs and doubles. He was posting a .288 ISO for the Brewers' AA club when the Indians snatched him from the jaws of Milwaukee, and his power immediately went into decline. His ISO was bad in his short AA stint with the Aeros but it was back up to .231 in AA last year, and settled in at .188 as an Indian. That would make him a decidedly average LF power-wise and we'd like more, please. 

Jhonny Peralta's SLG%: When Peralta was special, be it in 2005 or in the postseason, he's smoked the ball. This lines up with eyeball observations-Peralta's penchant for weak contact is apparent to the hardcore Indians' fan and his better seasons have been those in which he got extra bases with regularity (well, duh). The initial appeal of Peralta was founded on a number of things but a power-hitting SS was an easy thing to dream on. Five years on, we've got  a punchless 3B unless Peralta  can find a way to drive up his SLG and lower his IFFB%. 

Those are some of the numbers that I'll be obsessing over for the next four weeks. What's on your list? 

 

(Peralta Photo by Chuck Crow via media.cleveland.com)

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Comments

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Dead on. I noticed that there is early buzz about Masterson’s change-up; need to neutralize left-handed hitters.

I could really use an oscillation overthruster

by stuart dean on Mar 2, 2010 12:03 PM EST reply actions  

Hadn’t heard much talk on Masterson at all except the usual “Can he start” chatter. Any links to where people are seeing improvement in his change?

by GoTribe028 on Mar 2, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

“Masterson has worked very hard on his change-up,” said manager Manny Acta. “I think he’s going to be very good for us.”

Found here.

I could really use an oscillation overthruster

by stuart dean on Mar 2, 2010 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

At the end of that clip, Acta is funny talking about being deported if he chose to cheer against the US in hockey.

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

you have masterson above as a “lefty”

by emil minty on Mar 2, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks…hope he’s just not sporting the company line and actually likes what he is seeing.

by GoTribe028 on Mar 2, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

this “company line” paranoia has gotten a little crazy, no?

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Well in front of the camera Manny Acta seems like actually like Paul Hoynes. For all I know Acta thinks Masterson’s change up is garbage, but he’s never gonna say it.

by GoTribe028 on Mar 2, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Excuse me….seems to actually like

by GoTribe028 on Mar 2, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

acta seems pretty genuine. for that matter, so do the heads of the company, if you ask me. at any rate, acta doesn’t seem to care to take the time to beat around the bush or bloviate falsities. seems to me, "take his word for it" is a fair enough approach to take until he exhibits a real reason to think otherwise. i mean, can’t we just take positive things and enjoy them instead of having to attach some kind of negative proviso to everything?

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Unlike Ocker, Paul is a pretty nice guy.

I could really use an oscillation overthruster

by stuart dean on Mar 2, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

All I said was I hope he really is encouraged by what he see’s and just isn’t saying it. Look, after 7 years of listening to (insert player) “needs to work on being more consistent” I feel I have the right to be a little bit cynical.

It’s exactly why I jumped out of my seat and did a Don Johnson “Hearbeat” fist pump when Eric Wedge was fired.

by GoTribe028 on Mar 2, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

i disagree. i think a new guy deserves the benefit of the doubt, no matter what the old guy was like. i don’t even thing wedge “just said” things. why would acta do that? it doesn’t even make sense. he’s about as ‘straight shooter’ as i’ve seen.

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think any sports professional deserves the benefit of the doubt on stuff like “His changeup looks good” in ST. This is the definition of an inconsequential quote. It’s not as if he would ever, under any circumstance, say about a pitcher that the team has deemed an important starter something like “We’re not sure he’ll ever get lefties out.”

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

then why talk about any quote? any observation? any prediction? from anyone? why link it, if just to say, “who cares, it’s all just lip service.”

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s interesting, in some way. Not informative, though.

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

i don’t know. i guess when i read it, i thought. “hey, that’s encouraging, hope so.” and don’t need it broken down to “acta’s just another robot” to know that, ready for it, it is what it is.

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think anyone is really on a different page here. GT028 said “That’s encouraging, hope it’s not bull” and you’re saying “That’s encouraging, though perhaps it’s bull.”

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Rec for saying what I couldn’t figure out what to say.

by GoTribe028 on Mar 2, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

and i’m really just really trigger happy when i smell what might be debbie downing – of which this was not really a prime example of.

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Let’s hope the Acta3000 never rears its animatronic head.

STBNL

by emd2k3 on Mar 3, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Great use of quotation marks.

Luis Valbuena’s OBP: I’d love to see some positive signs there.
Grady Sizemore’s innings played: still looking for some reassurance that he is fully healthy.

by cleveland teamer on Mar 2, 2010 12:51 PM EST reply actions  

He’s fully healthy.

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks, scratch that second one.

by cleveland teamer on Mar 2, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

i think, speaking generally, this board is way overconfident on this point.

by emil minty on Mar 2, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I think, speaking generally, there is no indication he’s not 100% ready for ST.

by fwembt on Mar 4, 2010 12:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Good list. I’ll be searching for any pop from Brantley. That’s #1. And health from Weglarz. And walks from Marte.

by dgcambridge on Mar 2, 2010 12:54 PM EST reply actions  

jensen lewis’s MPH?

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 12:58 PM EST reply actions  

I recognize the importance of K/BB, but I think I care more about BB/9 (or per IP) for Carmona. His K/BB in 2007, while by far the best of his career, was somewhat depressed by his relatively low K/9 number (5.7). Meanwhile, his BB/9 (2.6) was quite strong – I think top 20, though I’m having trouble finding an overall leaderboard for the AL from that season (anybody know how to get more than top 10 from Bref?).

Anyway, my point is he was dominant because the contact he enduced was extremely weak, not necessarily because he was striking guys out at an overly impressive rate.

by jakesinger777 on Mar 2, 2010 1:01 PM EST reply actions  

i think the thinking is that more guys swung at balls out of the zone for fausto that year. andrew, to me, implies it’s on fausto to prove to hitters that his pitches are in the zone so his k’s are important to show he’s ‘adjusted’

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

This too, to some degree.

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I have been under the impression that this ability was reflected in a) his GB rate and b) his BB rate. I suppose it’s two sides of the same coin, but I think that if somehow hitters stop laying off his pitches out of the zone, it will reduce his BBs by more than his Ks increase.

by jakesinger777 on Mar 2, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought about this for a second and decided that K/BB allowed me to hedge my bets. Good Carmona can either get the sinker going and be GB artist while still exhibiting control (in which case his K/BB ought to be strong just on the basis of having a relatively low BB/9 as in 2007) or, at least there’s a vague possibility he’s going to morph into a power pitcher (like, here), meaning that his K/BB will be propped up by K’s, which would be fine, I guess. The power pitcher scenario is admittedly unlikely but the Indians seemed to really think that was his path to success through some of the late season quotes last year (if I’m recollecting correctly).

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, this makes sense, though, as you say, the latter scenario is unlikely. Either way I think it is ok so long as we are comparing Carmona to Carmona (i.e. his K/BB to his historic K/BB) and not to the rest of the league.

by jakesinger777 on Mar 2, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

that’s a great point. fausto can be awesome without being elite in K/BB.

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I think really what we are looking for is way to quantify ‘hungover-ness’ felt by the batter.

“It’s not normal,” Torii Hunter said of Carmona’s go-to pitch. “He’s not even human. It was so scary, I thought I was hung over.”

As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.

by bigbrabbs on Mar 2, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Back in 2007, we sometimes heard Fausto described as a young version of Kevin Brown (tall righty, hard sinking stuff). So for fun I just looked up Brown’s stats and there is an interesting trend.

His peak years were 1996-2000. Here are his ERA+ and K/BB for those years, as well as the years immediately before and after:

1994 – 101, 2.46
1995 – 132, 2.44
1996 – 216, 4.82
1997 – 150, 3.11
1998 – 164, 5.24
1999 – 143, 3.75
2000 – 169, 4.60
2001 – 150, 2.74 (115 IP)
2002 – 79, 2.52 (63 IP)

Pretty strong correlation between K/BB and ERA+ awesomeness, especially in the three even-numbered years when his best K/BBs matched his best ERA+s. He seems to have gotten better results in 2001 than the K/BB suggests, but he was also getting in to the injury-riddled period of his career.

Brown achieved his best ratios by both raising his K/9 and lowering his BB/9 from his previously-established levels.

FWIW.

by SuddenSam on Mar 2, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

This is a good post. I wonder, though, if this isn’t true for nearly every good to great pitcher who gets by on talent, not fluke occurrences. I mean, more K’s, less B’s, sign me up, right?

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure. There’s no great revelation here, other than K/BB does matter for that type of pitcher. Also, Brown achieved his success not by lowering his BBs or raising his Ks, but by doing a little of both. Taking off about one BB and adding about two Ks, on average, through his peak stretch.

The key, of course, is: How did he do it?

by SuddenSam on Mar 2, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Also! Brown was 31 in his breakout year.

by SuddenSam on Mar 2, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Trade Fausto with a clause to reacquire him in half a decade.

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

SSS and anecdotal evidence (“we sometimes heard Fausto described as a young version of Kevin Brown”) aside, it isn’t as easy to argue with your conclusion as it is with your process of arriving there. Yes, K/BB matters, but in Fausto’s case, only by virtue of the fact that it is driven by his BB/9. Consider that Fausto’s K/BB was 2.25 in 2007 and 1.13 in 2009, yet his K/9 was an identical 5.7 each of those years.

FWIW, after that breakout season in 1996, Brown topped 7 K/9 in each of the next 7 seasons. Fausto has never done it. I don’t know how comparable they are.

by jakesinger777 on Mar 2, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Brown turned into a power strikeout pitcher. It’s a bizarre and stunning transition.

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

But was it really so stunning, or just a long time coming? We are talking about guys who throw hard, not Laffey-type sinkerballers. Fausto should be a strikeout pitcher, shouldn’t he? Brown somehow became one at age 31, going from two years of 6.1 to 7.8, then never dipping below that for seven seasons.

by SuddenSam on Mar 2, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

You might be right but if this is a “type” there might only be two in the last ten fifteen years. That’s part of why Fausto’s 2007 was accompanied with so much hyperbole, right?

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes. This is exactly what was so exciting. This is exactly what is so disappointing.

by SuddenSam on Mar 2, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah Brown sort of skipped the “extreme meltdown” stage in his career huh?

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you mean the fact that maybe he’s one of the very rare of this type (which I see no evidence to conclude he is), or that he was able to succeed without apparently being of this type – i.e. without a staggering amount of strikeouts?

I know many words have been written on this, but it’s very possible Fausto’s success was completely derived from his ability to enduce bad swings at pitches out of the zone with which solid contact could not be made. Under this idea, Fausto quickly learned that, when pitched inside the zone, those same pitches become vastly more hittable.

Could it be that simple?

by jakesinger777 on Mar 2, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

The tantalizing thing about Carmona is that his stuff, all of it, looks awesome at times. It’s not like he induced a lot of bad swings at junk out of the zone, a la Sowers in 2006. He mutilated people with that stuff. And then, like last year against Seattle, he’s also dominated with the four seamer at times.

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Based on his pure stuff, yes, he should be a strikeout pitcher. Filth.

Power-sinker guys are fairly rare.

by Jay on Mar 2, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

They are comparable due to the power sinker. But Brown had a nasty slider. Carmona’s has always been below-average, and it will probably always be that way. His strikeout pitch is his changeup. I think the 2007 K/9 is probably the best he can do…but that would be far and away enough for him to be successful.

by TribeJay on Mar 2, 2010 7:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the 2007 K/9 is probably the best he can do…but that would be far and away enough for him to be successful.

I’m not sure you can say that given he posted the exact same K/9 in 2009, as I mention above.

by jakesinger777 on Mar 2, 2010 8:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you need to look at the last three months of 2007 to say, that’s his ceiling. His K rate was rising all season.

by Jay on Mar 2, 2010 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I wont look at numbers in the spring. I will be looking for strikes/control from Carmona. Preferably with downward movement. If he regains that with consistency, he’s tough to hit.

by DuffBeer on Mar 2, 2010 1:44 PM EST reply actions  

I think the more telling number for Carrasco, albeit more difficult to find, is something like the XBH/PA or ISO or SLG-against. I think Carrasco’s problem isn’t so much that he gives up hits, but that he gives up big hits.

Consider this…both Carrasco and Rondon are guys who some scouts have concerns about their stuff playing up to the big league level. In contrast, Adam Miller is a guy who was a scout’s dream with respect to stuff. If you look at their XBH numbers (i.e. 2B/PA, HR/PA) normalized to their overall hit totals (H/PA) you can see pretty big differences. I’d have to look at a lot of data to make any meaningful claims, but it is an interesting observation. Carrasco’s normalized double percentage in the minors has sat between 20-30% (20-30% of the hits he has given up have been doubles). His HR-rate has been over 2 since he reached high-A (between 2.1 and 2.9% of his hits). Similar numbers for Rondon, 18-25% of his hits have been doubles, 1-2.5% of his hits have been HRs. In contrast, Adam Miller’s 2B numbers were in the 12-21% range, and his HR-rate in the 1-1.9 range. These might seem like relatively small differences, but remember that the run-effect of these events is quite large.

I also know that lots of people say pitchers have no, or at least very little, control over balls in play. And when you look across large aggregate data sets I have no doubt that is true. But I think individual pitchers can have characteristic differences depending on the nature of their individual pitches. In particular I think it is possible a guy like Carrasco (and potentially Rondon) run into trouble because the kinds of mistakes they tend to make, given the nature of their pitches, turn into particularly hard hit balls. Maybe.

by APV on Mar 2, 2010 1:53 PM EST reply actions  

This makes sense to me but at some point as his H/9 grows to what appears to be an unsustainable place (it was over 9 in the minors, which is bad as the list of guys doing that in the majors showed but it was 16 in the majors: unsustainably bad, in every sense) the percentage of XBH doesn’t matter. 12% of 16 hits going for doubles is almost two. That’s too many.

Perhaps better stated, reducing XBH’s needs to be the goal after the overall hit parade comes to a stop, maybe?

by afh4 on Mar 2, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you might be overthinking this a bit. I think a more achievable goal would be to decrease the quality of the batter’s contact on batted balls. Basically, reduce hard-hit balls and you’ll see a reduction in overall hit numbers (fueled by fewer line drives, fliners, hard hit grounders, etc). Not easy to do perse, but there is more than one way to go about achieving this, so there’s room to help him develop in the area.

by hans on Mar 3, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

anything specific with hafner?

by Brick. on Mar 2, 2010 2:40 PM EST reply actions  

I think the number most likely to trend in a favorable direction is LaPorta’s ISO. He came with an awfully prolific reputation for game-changing power and I suspect we’ll see that soon.

Of course these are ALL going to change in the manner we want them to, right? /rose-colored glasses

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Mar 2, 2010 2:49 PM EST reply actions  

I had always assumed we were getting another Ryan Braun.

by jakesinger777 on Mar 2, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ll take the Konerko comp.

STBNL

by emd2k3 on Mar 3, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

No, no, Ryan Braun’s fine.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Mar 3, 2010 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, yeah, obviously.

STBNL

by emd2k3 on Mar 4, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Sowersian is a fun word.

< / guy who wants LaPorta to play 150 games in LF >

by westbrook on Mar 2, 2010 5:44 PM EST reply actions  

Deserves a slow clap

by fg28 on Mar 2, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Clap……

"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay

by woodsmeister on Mar 3, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

3 hours between claps. Slowest slow clap ever.

by jakesinger777 on Mar 3, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions  

No, we had one that started out at 24+ hours between the first few, at one point.

by Jay on Mar 3, 2010 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually lol’ed at Jhonny’s crazed smile in that pic. Is he the closest thing we have to a pokemon or something? Also! Very well-written. Lotta keeper lines, like:

[Huff] struck out a downright Sowersian 4.6 per 9 last season in the majors…

by joeee on Mar 3, 2010 12:45 AM EST reply actions  

I’m surprised it’s taken this long to mention,

but it fits with Carlos’ scouting reports (straight fastball, weak makeup leads to grooving pitches while eyes well with tears)

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Mar 3, 2010 10:00 AM EST up reply actions  

That was my favorite. The writing leaves some ambiguity as to whether his eyes are welling or ours. Or, and perhaps most likely, both.

by fwembt on Mar 4, 2010 12:31 AM EST up reply actions  

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