Realignment Committee with Interesting Ideas
So, um... thoughts?
almost 2 years ago
ClemsonGirl
104 comments
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Comments
Certainly an example of “considering everything.” The division-selecting event would probably carry almost as much hype as all of spring training – I could see it garnering as much attention as primaries do before general elections (in this case, the season itself).
I don’t understand which teams would want to compete against the Yankees or Red Sox? The example given is that a rebuilding team would welcome additional home games against the Yankees and Red Sox. Why? This sounds like East coast self worship.
They follow it up by saying this would mean more revenue at the gate than games against, say, the Royals and Twins. Which is probably true. Though other factors could easily be dwarf this one.
I don’t know. The Indians currently play 3 (sometimes 4) home games against the Red Sox and Yankees. This move would bump that up to 9. That is 10-12 extra games against these teams, which presumably will sell out (although perhaps these games sell out precisely because they visit town only one series per year – i.e. the novelty factor might weaken). Let’s be conservative and assume it’s ten: all else being equal (a big assumption, I concede), if these replace 12 games versus AL Central opponents, which let’s just say sell out, on average, half the seats, then this shift would lead to an aggregate of 6 games worth of ticket revenue that would not be generated otherwise.
Balance this against the possibility that a bunch of things go right for the Indians this year and they are around .500 or slightly above coming into August/September. In my mind there are two important points here: a) this is more likely to happen if they are playing in the AL Central, against weaker opposition, and b) that, in all likelihood, puts them squarely in the playoff race. If this happens, the Jake will start selling out again for the stretch run, as we saw in 2005.
So you can have 6 extra games worth of ticket sales or you can take a shot at contention – which would be too unrealistic in the AL East – that, if successful, would presumably lead to far more than that as the fans start showing up for a playoff run, not to mention the additional home games the Indians would host if they actually made the playoffs.
It’s an interesting conversation, but I have a hard time seeing how it would actually play out. For instance, if the goal is to break up the “Boston-New York axis of power”, I don’t think giving teams the choice to switch divisions will do the trick. As much as those teams may hate each other, they undoubtedly recognize how good it is for business to play each other 18 times a year.
by jakesinger777 on Mar 9, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Move Boston to the NL and be done with it, Selig.
Sheesh.
STBNL
by emd2k3 on Mar 9, 2010 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It really does nothing to break up the New York-Boston axis of power which appeared to be a goal. The only way I can think of to do that with realignment is move one of them and that might not even work.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
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I started out thinking I might be disagreeing with you but as I walked myself through my own logic I realized I didn’t..
by jakesinger777 on Mar 10, 2010 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
If you really want to add revenue like that (more home games against the Yankees and Red Sox), cut Interleague play down to one home and away series with a local rival (Cubs vs. White Sox, Reds vs. Indians, etc) and allow teams to play more games within their own league. I’m gonna keep yelling for this until someone listens (not gonna happen) or I’m told to shut up. Feel free to tell me to shut up anytime. It’s not like people are jamming the seats to see Indians vs. Padres any more than they are Indians vs. Royals.
Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...
b) that, in all likelihood, puts them squarely in the playoff race. If this happens, the Jake will start selling out again for the stretch run, as we saw in 2005.
I followed you all the way up to here. I don’t see it.
Steel Nick
Why not? In the AL Central, 85 wins might be enough to get it done and, even if it isn’t, it’s close enough to make it a race.
The excitement of a playoff race would surely sell out some games in August in September.
On July 24th, 2005 the Indians were in 3rd place, 14 GB of first, and hosting the Mariners. Attendance was 22,863 according to B-Ref. By September 11th they were finishing off a 3 game sweep of the Twins to bring it to within 5.5 games. Attendance was 38,564. I didn’t check every game in September to see if this level was sustained, but I think it makes sense.
by jakesinger777 on Mar 10, 2010 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
Just opinion, but I don’t think much is going to get fans through the turnstiles in August unless the Indians burst onto the 2010 scene like bats out of Hell. I expect it takes a while for fan interest to accumulate and show up in ticket sales. And if the Indians are going to start hot, I’m thinking they would have to be on a 90+ win pace. A late push to 83 probably doesn’t do much for the typical ticket-buyer.
This is completely without looking at the numbers, so I could be wrong. But there are also a lot of bitter people out there who might not care that a 70-some-win team is 6 games out of first on August 25th.
Steel Nick
90-win pace isn’t that exciting — 9-7, whoopee. An early record has to be a lot more lopsided than that in order to “feel” impressive. By June, what people want to see is first-place or a very close second.
For sure, but if that first- or near second-place is at a .500 instead of .650, does that matter? I’m inclined to think not.
by jakesinger777 on Mar 10, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Since playoff contention isn’t part of the “plan” (or maybe it is but let’s assume for this excercise that the Indians are purposefully taking a step back, saving money and rebuilding), do you think they would cash in some young chips/take on contracts for a playoff push at .500-ish with first place in reach?
That would be the turnstile move. That would probably push people into the ballpark. I guess the Indians would have to decide if they’re just getting lucky or if this team can really perform this way for years to come. Because a move like that—taking on money and shipping off young pieces—can really blow up in our face and get us right back to where we started. And I’m not even sure we CAN take on money if we were in a playoff race.
None of this really matters if we win 65 games again, of course.
Steel Nick
I would seriously doubt they would do that, but is it such a stretch to say the Indians are at least somewhat capable of 85 wins this season without making any moves? I’m not counting on it by any means, but I think it’s within reason.
by jakesinger777 on Mar 10, 2010 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
I too do not think that the Indians would seriously damage the “rebuild” (or whatever you want to call it) plan for 2011 and 2012 by trading in some of their prospects/chips for “upgrades,” even if they seem to be in contention during the second half of 2010.
In my mind, what would be more likely in regards to realistically contending in 2010 is that they may pass on trading Wood, Westbrook, and Peralta if they really believe they can make the postseason in 2010 with pretty much the team that is assembled or will be assembled in late March/early April (when I say “team,” that includes the reinforcements they can call up from Columbus and even Akron, accounting for any internal additions they make during the season).
It’s still possible that Shapiro/Antonetti will not pass on a good deal for any one of or all three of those players if such a deal is proposed, even if they are in contention. But, it’s more likely they’d hold onto them for the entire 2010 season than it would be for them to trade any notable chips/prospects for upgrades. Any “upgrades” they can get for nothing or near nothing (i.e. prospects that don’t figure into the long-term plans), of course, would be doable, as is probably always the case in order to improve the team both in the short term and in the long term.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
The excitement of a playoff race would surely sell out some games in August in September.
The problem in Cleveland is not games in August, when the weather is good and the kids are out of school and people will go to see even a mediocre team. The problem is those Tuesday night games in April and May when you need a winter coat and a blanket and the kids have to be at school in the morning. Even when the team was in contention the year before, we don’t see appreciable bumps in attendance for early season games. Extra games with the Yankees and Red Sox in April might make a difference, but then we’d still have to compete with the Damn Yankees and the Yankees Lite and their massive payroll advantages. No thanks.
"...maybe this year, there's no gorilla" - YoDaddyWags
by woodsmeister on Mar 10, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
We wouldn’t be choosing the Yankees and Red Sox for the gate receipts. We’d choose the wrench, ‘cuz f*&^ them, that’s why.
by dgcambridge on Mar 10, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
If this idea doesn’t disgust you, please explain why.
No, not you. Your helmet!
by PatBordersHelmet on Mar 9, 2010 11:31 PM EST reply actions
Or top two and then take the next 8 and have a mini playoff for the final 2 in each league. This way nearly every team will have a chance towards the end of the season. Disclaimer: this is Bill Simmons’ idea for the NBA.
by jakesinger777 on Mar 9, 2010 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
Here’s a “consider anything” idea – a frackin’ salary cap. That’ll solve the 38% of playoff appearances by Boston and New York. Every other sport gets it – just not the MLB.
I know, I know – they said they’d consider anything, not something that would actually work and could be implemented easily.
I just wanted to believe.
by mjmarble on Mar 9, 2010 11:44 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I don’t like the salary floor idea because in the end you might force lower revenue teams to sign crappy old players for more than they are worth.
Just make the teams pay the difference between their team payroll and the floor to the players union, who gets to decide how to divvy it up.
But that’s the genius of Dayton Moore and Kansas City gets results! Ask Chuck!
"...maybe this year, there's no gorilla" - YoDaddyWags
by woodsmeister on Mar 10, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
There’s a much easier solution, often discussed here: move two teams into NY metro area and one into Connecticut.
Even better solution, especially if one is “considering everything”: abolish the Yankees, demolish the stadium and salt the earth, incarcerate certain players (especially Derek Jeter and Justin Chamberlain), expel C.C. Sabathia and Mark Texeira; dynamite Fenway Park, reassign J.D. Drew to play in Mexican League; arrest Dustin Pedroia and Jonathan Papelbon, banish Mike Lowell, etc. Force Red Sox players to wear donkey suits. Horse-whip anyone singing “Sweet Caroline.”
by odradek on Mar 10, 2010 1:59 AM EST up reply actions 17 recs
My ideal scenario for Fenway is that a volcano sprouts in shallow left field.
by fleerdon on Mar 10, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So a discussion by MLB that allows consideration of anything and the result doesn’t mention the 2 things that other sports have implemented successfully, revenue sharing and salary capping.
This is akin to a new hot dog vendor considering anything at all to offer on hot dogs, but the suggestion of mustard or relish somehow escapes consideration.
so…this idea is like some kind of new ketchup?
Is this the whale section?
by sarcasmdave on Mar 10, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
I’m not in favor of a hard cap, and not in favor of a salary floor either. I’d compromise with a salary cap similar to the NBA’s, in which a luxury tax is paid above and beyond the soft cap number.
That wouldn’t prevent the Yankees and Red Sox from outspending everyone, but it may close the gap.
You are reading my signature.
hit return too quickly.
the NBA’s luxury tax is dollar-for-dollar, which is a much larger deterrent than the current MLB luxury tax.
You are reading my signature.
Not to mention that baseball’s baseline threshold (around $170m, according to Wikipedia’s estimatee for 2010) is probably too high.
by jakesinger777 on Mar 10, 2010 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
A salary cap would be the answer to many problems in MLB, and as you mentioned, every other sport has gotten it, not MLB.
Unfortunately, without a stern lockout by the owners, that probably isn’t going to happen. That’s why I wish Cousineau’s plan would be considered more – he proposed it about 4-6 weeks ago on TCF (I don’t have the link handy, but you likely can find it there under his name page, and probably talked about it before). It would enable teams to offer their own free agents the most money, just like they do in the NBA – that would help the Indians retain more of their talent, while still also enable them to field competitive teams that could actually compete year in and year out, not in 2-3 year cycles.
As for the “salary floor” idea, I would be with this as well, and I remember Cousineau’s plan did also mention the idea of teams having to spend a certain amount or higher in order to benefit from the idea of being able to offer the most money to their own free agents. I don’t remember the specifics of that part of the plan as well – if I have the chance, I’ll try to find the link and provide more details.
Certainly, though, the revenue sharing plan is not working as anticipated, and worse, now the Yankees and Red Sox are cutting off the advantage of the Indians, Twins, As, and others finding gems in the later rounds of the draft, not to mention spending the most for amateur talent and agents like Boras directing those amateurs to sign with the large-market teams.
The lack of a salary cap certainly annoys me, and the fans who don’t get it (not talking about people here at LGT, but more those casual fans who try to compare the management teams of the Browns, Cavaliers, and Indians like they’re equal, when clearly, they play on different playing fields). I wish a true salary cap in baseball (or Cousineau’s plan) was a reality, but that probably won’t happen anytime soon, unfortunately.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Here is the plan I was referring to from Cousineau; the post is called, “Results Based On Merit, Not Market.”
In regards to a “salary floor,” the teams that don’t develop talent that is compelling enough to generate interest on the open market, then they don’t get any more of a share of the “Tax Pool”/“Central Fund”/whatever name you give it than the larger market teams get, essentially forcing them to spend money to develop their teams in order to gain those additional revenues from that “Tax Pool”/“Central Fund”/whatever name you give it.
Personally, I think the plan would at least be a good starting point and an improvement over what we currently have – this plan would provide the benefits of a “salary cap” and “salary floor” without essentially having those in place, thereby keeping the salaries of players high, yet allowing smaller and middle-market teams to compete with and outbid the large-market teams to keep competitve teams together for longer periods of time, thereby providing real hope of winning a championship every or nearly every year to fans of all teams, not just NY and Boston.
That also would likely help to boost MLB’s sagging attendance and television ratings, both of which are falling behind the other major sports (football, basketball, and even hockey is gaining in the ratings, and probably will again due to Team USA’s impressive showing at the Vancouver Olympics).
Most fans do not want their teams to have little to no shot of competing for the postseason in April and May, which is a major reason why many fans don’t bother coming out to ballgames in June and July in places like KC, Pittsburgh, and even here in Cleveland, where most games only have maybe 20-25K, out of a possible 42K-43K capacity. It takes a fireworks display to get that number up to 30K+; otherwise, most games, outside of a select few, aren’t even close to 30K, and that’s only about 70% capacity, so most games might have about 50%-60% capacity at best. This is partly why the team finds itself in the financial straits it’s in now. Additionally, even when the team was competing well in 2005 and 2007, it took quite a while for fans to start showing up in the 30K+ range, let alone 40K+, only doing that regularly in the playoffs.
Again, I think the fact that there is uncompetitive balance in baseball really grates on many fans, including here in Cleveland, especially when the Indians were on the cusp of reaching the WS, then having to tear it all down and start again because they had the inability to retain their best players, leading to their being traded ahead of time, with one now in NY (Sabathia), another likely to wind up there (Lee), and another who is in Boston (Victor) by trade, but could resign there or in NY (especially since Posada likely won’t be back and there being questions on whether Mauer will actually be available or not).
Having true competitive balance would likely boost the average fan’s fervor for baseball again, knowing that their team isn’t out of it by April or May due to their losing their best players after a few years or giving out a bad contract or two hampering their team’s chances for 3-5 years afterwards. Additionally, keeping those types of players together longer would enable more dynasties to be built outside of NY and Boston, which would also likely help fans, especially younger fans, identify more with their teams, which could also encourage more young kids to pursue baseball as their main sport, which is another aspect of baseball that is falling behind other sports here in the United States, as many of them are turning to basketball, football, and even hockey and soccer. Don’t get me wrong; there are still many kids who pursue baseball, but from what I have heard and read, the numbers aren’t as numerous as they were in the past, and especially when compared to basketball and football. I think part of the reason is because baseball has become monotonous in terms of NY and Boston always competing because they can spend the most money for the best talent and FA, and the other teams can try to scrape together decent teams from the leftovers and hope that luck is on their side to perhaps knock off one or both of them and win a championship in a given year, then have to tear it down again a year or two later and hope that luck is with them once again. It’s virtually the same storyline being written year after year; after a while, most fans get sick of the storyline and lose interest and passion in baseball, unless you’re a fan of the Yankees or Red Sox. That is also likely why attendance and television ratings for basketball and football are higher – more competitive balance, as Cousineau mentions in his piece.
All in all, I think the plan that Cousineau provides would be a significant improvement over what we currently have in MLB now. Whether MLB would ever seriously entertain it, that’s the $64K question, but we can certainly hope that someone comes to his senses that baseball is getting ruined by this notion that we have competitive balance when all the stats regarding playoff appearances, attendance and television ratings, and interest in baseball suggest otherwise. Something clearly needs to be done if we really want baseball to be as good of a game as it once was, when fans could identify players on specific teams (Ripken with Baltimore, Gwynn with San Diego, Puckett with Minnesota, etc.) and could have legitimate hope that their team could really win it all in a given year, not hope that one year they may be able to do it if everything goes right, then have to tear it down soon afterwards due to baseball economics. This is not the case in NY and Boston – that’s how it should be throughout MLB, and that’s why a plan like this, in my opinion, is needed and should be acted upon.
Just my 2.2 cents!
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
This is all pipe dream stuff, but I would love to see baseball structured like soccer.
There is a Senior and Junior league. The Senior league is comprised of the big market teams and the efficient (well-run) small market teams. There is movement between the leagues if you fail or succeed. Finishing last in your divsion in the Senior league will get you demoted and finishing first in your division in the Junior league will get you promoted. The Senior league would have a soft cap (and hard floor) with a luxury tax that is distributed mostly to the Senior league. The Junior league would operate under the same conditions (but at different scales).
The playoffs are still 8 teams, but 5 (3 division winners + 2 wildcard) come from the Senior league and only 3 from the Junior (division winner only).
The DH would probably have to be abolished and the geographic divisions would have to remain the same (for obvious reasons).
by Toxicadam on Mar 10, 2010 12:07 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
In soccer that Junior league would never play in a playoff against the Senior league teams. If you want to go for it, go for a full on promotion relegation system and be done with it.
You do realize that this is a sport where a statistically significant portion of the fans are baffled by the concept that RBI is meaningless, right?
by VA tribe fan on Mar 10, 2010 4:08 AM EST up reply actions
Responding to several comments… The idea does not seem to be aimed at breaking up the Axis; instead they are trying to maximize the revenue the Axis can generate. I don’t think the committee wants to reduce the playoff appearances for the Axis. In fact, the committee wants to assure the Axis makes the playoffs every season. Problem is that the 3 other teams in the East ruin those plans by either a) making the playoff (Rays) or b) continually sucking but making a lot of money (upsetting the other sucking teams).
The salary cap and revenue sharing? How will this happen when the largest media markets are in the MLB’s back pocket? Too many people controlling the discussion are making too much money from the current system. Football and basketball can get away with revenue sharing because the media can generate a limited amount of money in the local markets.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Mar 10, 2010 8:37 AM EST via mobile reply actions 9 recs
What’s so horrifying to me is to look at the 14-person committee that’s proposing this:
Tony La Russa – St. Louis Cardinals
Jim Leyland – Detroit Tigers
Mike Scioscia – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Joe Torre – Los Angeles Dodgers
Andy MacPhail – Baltimore Orioles
Terry Ryan – Minnesota Twins
John Schuerholz – Atlanta Braves
Mark Shapiro – Cleveland Indians
Chuck Armstrong – Seattle Mariners
Paul Beeston – Toronto Blue Jays
Bill DeWitt – St. Louis Cardinals
Dave Montgomery – Philadelphia Phillies
Frank Robinson
George Will
Embracing and showcasing the Axis is their new solution to regain competitive balance…
by The DiaTriber on Mar 10, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Will still has credibility?
"...maybe this year, there's no gorilla" - YoDaddyWags
by woodsmeister on Mar 10, 2010 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Maury Brown put up the playoff appearances by payroll for the last decade. A quick glance over the numbers and you’ll see that the general trend has been that 5 of the top 10 payroll teams usually make the playoffs on average, and the the other 3 playoff spots get split between the other 20 teams. I think MLB is not actually too upset with that setup.
So – to put it another way: The top 10 payroll teams typically have a 50% chance at making the playoffs while the remainder have a 15% and MLB is not too upset at this? Good grief, that stinks to high heaven.
"...maybe this year, there's no gorilla" - YoDaddyWags
by woodsmeister on Mar 10, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, of course, that’s a very broad swipe, not factoring in your division.
by dgcambridge on Mar 10, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a business! As long as there is a positive correlation between payroll and fan interest, baseball has no incentive to change the system.
by jakesinger777 on Mar 10, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
Two things:
One, I really like Jay’s three-league system.
Two, if Congress is gonna get all up in the BCS’ business about competitive balance and fairness, why haven’t they said word one about the BS that is allowed to happen year in and year out in MLB?
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
In regards to point #2, politically it makes more sense for a Senator or Congressman to back a change to college football just in terms of currying to popular sentiment within a state. Whereas with baseball you’ll never get any politician from New York or Massachusetts to say that baseball needs a salary cap ASAP because they would alienate a massive chunk of their voting block.
I don’t see what role there is for politics and/or politicians in sports, in any situation.
by jakesinger777 on Mar 10, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. And Griamce’s point is right on, too. All I’m saying, though, is that if politicians are gonna stick their noses into sports, MLB should be first in line — and not because of steroids.
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Mar 10, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
but this is precisely what i want: their role is to convene on less important matters such as the BCS, so as to prevent them from getting involved in matters that are more important to our nation, which they are most likely to eff up.
You are reading my signature.
In America? America?
How sad is it that what you write is basically true?
by jakesinger777 on Mar 10, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
[deleted, politics]
My bad for starting us down this path
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Mar 10, 2010 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
At least with regards to the BCS, there is a legitimate legal interest at stake, which to some degree justifies Congressional involvement. There is certainly some merit to the argument that the BCS, as currently structured, violates anti-trust laws; though this is something that would better be hashed out in the courts, given the current precedent, Congressional interference is likely the only route that would lead to progress.
While MLB’s structure is unfair, there isn’t as much of an argument that it’s illegal (though there was some litigation regarding revenue sharing from the 1990s that the Yankees won).
I think it is fairly obvious that a more firm salary cap, a la the NBA, would fix a lot of baseball’s problems. But let’s talk specifics here: where do you set it and how do you revert to it? I.e. what do you do with the existing contracts? I don’t think it’s fair to tell the Yankees that, all of a sudden, they can only have a payroll of $100m, when they have more than that committed for each of the next 3 years (just a guess, I didn’t look this up).
Look to my post above and related to Cousineau’s plan – I think that could provide a way.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
How many owners do we really think want a salary cap? I’d say the number is small and that most that do advocate it are just giving it lip service.
Every owner wants salaries capped as the difference goes into their wallets. It’s the GM’s of the larger markets that would have to finally outperform their peers to win that would not want it.
I agree with this. The owners do want a cap, but they have to get it at the bargaining table with the Players Association.
I’m just wondering aloud here, but what are the chances that this becomes a real issue with a core group of owners unwilling to budge the next time the CBA gets negotiated?
I just wanted to believe.
I think it’s more likely a group of small-market owners band together and complain in closed session that if they don’t get a more level playing field (say a part of local broadcast revenues from New York, Boston and Los Angeles), they will go on strike. Who will the Red Sox and Yankees play if ten teams threaten to strike?
Of course, this is pretty unlikely, too.
Owners want a salary cap at a low number that they pull out of their imagination. Using the NFL or NBA as a basis, the cap would be set at over 100 million, and the floor would be at least 70 million. Owners have no interest in that cap.
Again, as long as the floor included minor leaguers and amateur signings, and as long as it was based on a three-year average, I think quite a few owners would go for that.
Well, first off, I don’t see any chance that the MLBPA agrees to a salary cap that allows teams to use non-members salaries to count against it. But a lot depends on where that cap actually falls. Mimicking the NFL before this uncapped season (players getting 60% of revenue with the floor at 84% of the cap) gets us about a 120 mill cap and 100 mill floor. You will get very few owners to agree to that. The 100 and 70 numbers I mentioned would, in my opinion, be the low end for the numbers, and I still see enough owners causing a fuss about that.
This is why I care less and less about baseball every year. Competitive balance is only a distant echo these days.














