Game 22: Twins 9, Indians 3
by Ryan on Apr 30, 2010 11:04 PM EDT
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PrintAn errant throw lead to a three-run second inning, and the Indians could never claw their back into the contest. The low throw by Luis Valbuena wasn't an error, since the throw was part of a double play attempt, but the play should have made, and if it had, the Indians would have ended the top of second just down 2-0. A run scored on the play, and after Denard Span stole second, Orlando Hudson plated two more on his single.
Fausto Carmona gave up six earned runs, and though his line is somewhat misleading, the third run in the second and a run in the fifth were directly attributable to allowing Twins runners to get fantastic jumps towards second base. In the fifth, he allowed a stolen base to Hudson, allowing the Twins to stay out of a double play (Justin Morneau hit a sharp grounder to second just after the base was stolen), and with two outs, Hudson was driven home on a Michael Cuddyer single. Carmona did finish six innings, which was a plus for the short-term health of the bullpen; too many times last season, Carmona would have completely imploded in the early innings, leaving the bullpen to throw six or more innings in a game.
Kevin Slowey shut the Indians out through four innings, but he barely got through the fifth inning. Michael Redmond got a gift double with one out; a fly ball to right-center fell between Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer. Four hits later, the Indians had cut the lead in half, and Jhonny Peralta stepped to the plate as the tying run. He flew out, and that was the last real chance the Indians had of getting back into the game. During that inning, Travis Hafner lined a double down the left field, a nice piece of hitting, and hopefully the first sign of a power surge. Pronk had hit only four extra-base hits going into the game, and the Indians offense desperately needs some pop.
Rule 5 pick Hector Ambriz made his Indians debut in the eighth, and thanks to a nice catch by Grady Sizemore, got through the inning with no runs allowed. Ambriz had been very good in his "rehab assignment" with the Clippers (8.0 IP, 9 H, 15 SO, 1 BB), so the Indians might have called him up even if he had been a typical 40-man roster pitcher.
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Travis Hafner | .077 | Fausto Carmona | -.289 |
| Austin Kearns | .025 | Luis Valbuena | -.138 |
| Matt LaPorta | .016 | Austin Kearns | .025 |
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Yeah, he’s got a good aggressive approach, but doesn’t seem to have the discipline. Needs some seasoning. Looking forward to seeing The Donald.
by pdxtribefan on Apr 30, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
This is all further highlighted by the fact that he pretty much has to go down for his clock, so yeah, send away.
That said, the only thing VB has constantly had is a disciplined approach and he’s improbably maintained it in the majors despite not ever hitting the ball. Before tonight he had a .196 average and a .328 OBP. That’s some serious discipline.
I agree, but I had hoped the discipline—along with a few impressive doubles last season—would indicate promise as a hitter. That hasn’t happened yet.
No question he ought to go down. I was just responding to pdx. I mean the one thing he ought to not be criticized for is his discipline. His approach is fantastic, in a lot of ways. He just gets no results late in counts when he swings and, well, yeah. Go down, young man.
That’s a good distinction – late in the count versus general strike zone recognition. Thanks, it’s easy to fall into that trap. I should say, I still think Valgood es muy buena.
I think the distinction here is that he’s definitely not afraid to take a walk…but he has chased out of the zone a lot with two strikes. He’s an absolute sucker for the high fastball. So I guess it depends on your definition of discipline.
Is this a matter of responding to how the scouting has responded to him?
by Jay on May 2, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Kipnis exploded tonight: 4-4 with a 2B and a HR. I believe his OPS is over 1.000 now and I’ve heard nothing bad about his play at 2B.
Cord Phelps is having a pretty nice season himself on the keystone in Akron. Maybe it’s time to turn him into the next Donald, playing some super UT and get Kipnis up.
Of course, Kipnis is only e months younger than Phelps and Phelps’ OPS in Akron is like .930. So, maybe we ought to just leave them alone?
He’s 2.718 months younger than Phelps?
Also! Man can this Phifer fellow pitch.
Practicing my left-handed swing as I type. By next week I'll be able to hit Masterson and Smith.
all right, i’m willing to believe in any single minors player doing anything right now.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 30, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I was actually at the salem/kinston game tonight. Kinston took a big dump all over Salem’s starter, while De La Cruz looked great. He had Salem hitters off balance the whole night—although I didn’t see any radar gun readings, I could tell they were having a hard time timing up to his fastball as they were sending a ton of foul balls down the right field line where I was sitting. He also showed some nice breaking stuff when he got ahead in the count. I’m not an expert on mechanics or anything, but to my untrained eye his delivery looked loose and fluid, especially for such a big lanky dude.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on May 1, 2010 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I live in Roanoke and go to school at W&L law. You’re from around Waynesboro, aren’t you? I think we may have discussed this at some point.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on May 1, 2010 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Ha, it’s cool man. I actually worked for the Augusta county public defender last summer, so I know the area pretty well for an outsider. There’s a surprising amount of crime and intrigue that goes on in the Shenandoah valley.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on May 1, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I had a friend who ended up cooking meth. When we were in HS he was pushing drugs for some guys, snitched and then ended up with a cop car parked in front of his house all of senior year for “protection” or whatever.
Yeah, sounds like one of our “clients.” I spent most of my time in Staunton, which I think is a very cool little town, but every once in awhile the investigator and I would trek over to Waynesboro for one thing or another (usually to go to Target or the Sonic).
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on May 1, 2010 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Waynesboro didn’t have a Target or a Sonic in my day (graduated high school in 2002). My understanding is it’s grown exponentially in the strip mall sense. When I was a kid, you had to go to Staunton for anything but groceries; Waynesboro had no chain restaurants, no Wal-Mart, no mall, no movies.
Staunton has all the old money in the region, for whatever reason. It is a cool town-Gypsy Hill Park is great. I used to love Mill Street Grill but I understand it’s fallen off.
There’s a great story about why it’s pronounced “stan-ton” instead of “stahn-ton.” Essentially, the pronunciation was changed during the civil war so that outsiders could be immediately distinguished. No idea how true that is.
Oh yeah, the investigator told me that story this summer! I wondered if he was just making it up, but apparently not. That’s really cool.
Never ate at Mill St. Grill, but I did go there for drinks after work one day (it was during one of those summer concerts they hold in that big parking lot). The PD’s office is actually right next door, in between Mill St. and that crazy antique shop. I was a big fan of Baja Bean Co. downtown, as well as the Five Guys (which looks pretty new) and the Depot.
The area between Waynesboro and Staunton had indeed been built up with low-density housing and retail, at least from what I observed. Still, drive a few miles off the beaten path and you can get some incredible Shenandoah valley vistas. The drive from Waynesboro to Charlottesville is also pretty awesome (love the C-ville area).
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on May 1, 2010 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah man. Wish I had time to hit up some of the wineries again before heading back to Ohio for the summer.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on May 1, 2010 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I live in Roanoke and go to school at W&L law.
More lawyers? Good lord, this place is going to hell in a handbasket.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on May 1, 2010 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions
The obvious solution is a lawyer cap.
by kennesawmountainwahoo on May 1, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Kinston took a big dump all over Salem’s starter
I approve
by APV on May 1, 2010 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Carlos Silva is actually pitching well so far as well. Not saying Silva will outproduce Bradley this season, because he won’t, but the impression I got from the M’s fans was that it was a win no matter how Bradley acted simply because of how bad Silva is.
Silva’s doing it in the NL though.
Practicing my left-handed swing as I type. By next week I'll be able to hit Masterson and Smith.
Not just M’s fans. I basically said the same thing. Very impressed with Silva so far; thought he was done.
by Jay on May 2, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
God, the Mariners are a joke. I mean, they hit as badly as the Indians do, they were projected to hit this badly, and people really think they’re a playoff team? And even if they were, that they could win a playoff series? SSS doesn’t matter when it takes a sample of 100 team ABs to generate 3 runs.
The M’s 2-3-4 hitters were FIggins, Gutierrez and Jose Lopez.
I mean, who is honestly supposed to get a hit there? Figgins?
We would welcome somebody producing at Gutz’ level this year though. Especially if he batted second.
Gutz is about to take a huge fall. Riding a .415 babip. Would it be nice to have had a guy who’s hits had fallen in? Sure. But Gutierrez still can’t really hit.
He’s one guy I don’t do the obsession with.
Yeah, it’s been covered. I saw enough of him to know what he is. Still love to watch him play CF, and will just enjoy these stretches when he gets them. He’s still got 2 more HR than our CF.
I can’t enjoy anything about the M’s or give them credit for anything. They’ve become insufferable to me. Their fans, their GM, their approach. Ugh.
Well, I mean I don’t know the GM. But, the deification of him by FanGraphs and the Seattle fanbase.
Right here, what just happened: if you’re going to build your team on “the new market inefficiency” of defense it doesn’t help if you don’t have a single freaking hitter in your lineup. Wilson is so inept he can’t bat late game so they go to the bench and get one of their reserve bats who is…the 37 year old Mike Sweeney. And I’m supposed to be blown away with this GM?
I’ve seen this movie. He’s not as smart as everyone thinks he is.
wow how do they not score there
Practicing my left-handed swing as I type. By next week I'll be able to hit Masterson and Smith.
Wow, Denver is blowing the game in the exact same way the Blazers did. At least Denver has the excuse of being on the road. I’m ready for all these stupid games to end tonight. The Ms/Rangers went from good to pathetic over the last hour.
I can’t think of words for this M’s offense. It’s worse than the Indians. Those are the best words for it.
That says enough right there.
Practicing my left-handed swing as I type. By next week I'll be able to hit Masterson and Smith.
I wish Cliff Lee was on Twitter right now just so he’d let us know what he thinks of this. My guess is he’s thinking about hunting.
i wonder what he’s not reading.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on May 1, 2010 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m saying it with numbers for once.
Are you suggesting their offense lacks the quality of the Indians’ offense?
Oh, I’m not saying anything except I find the Mariners’ offense despicable. What bothers me about it, moreso than the Indians, is that they ran up the white flag before the games ever started. The Indians offense ought to be at least slightly below average. This M’s offense could only have been projected to be very poor.
They have maybe 3 real major league hitters? The Indians have at least 3 guys who should be able to reach all-star type levels at their position (Choo, Sizemore, Cabrera). The Mariners have, at best, one guy that should be able to do that (Ichiro) and one who might charitably have an outside shot at that (Bradley).
By the by, they have no interest in the “Gootz” moniker in Seattle. He is all Guti, all the time for them.
Like hearing your ex no longer goes by “Cupcake Butt” and instead is now called “Cookie [REDACTED].”
If there’s a story behind this, I want to hear it and now.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on May 1, 2010 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Guti has always been the nickname people have used with him in person
by APV on May 1, 2010 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Clearly it wasn’t Franlkin I was wondering about.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on May 1, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Given the strength of his defense, Gootz has his own outside shot. He doesn’t have to produce quite the same offensive numbers that Sizemore does in order to deserve selection. They play a slightly different position, if you will.
by Jay on May 1, 2010 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I would typically agree with this, but offense—to me—is purely a results-oriented issue. The perceived capability of a hitter doesn’t matter. Just because they look like they should score runs doesn’t mean anything. What matters is scoring runs, no? Regardless of whether they look like hitters or not. I admit that, on paper, the Mariners look terrible. But they’ve outscored the Indians—who may or may not look good on paper—and that seems to render other observations invalid.
This is the very same thing as picking the Royals to finish better than the Indians based on last season’s record. There is a big difference between two teams with the same achievement in a few weeks of games, one of which is greatly under-achieving and the other of which is, well, just plain achieving.
Be as bearing on Grady as you want, but if there’s 300+ points of OPS separating him and Gutierrez at the end of the season, he won’t be the one on the bottom.
by Jay on May 1, 2010 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions
No, I agree with you, and I recognize the fallacy. But I’m uncomfortable with the idea of a qualitative offense. All of us have believed this offense should be better than it has been. But it hasn’t scored runs, which in the end is the definition of offense. Underachieving accounts for only so much until it too becomes just plain achieving. A too subtle distinction on my part, perhaps, but a pragmatic one, I think. I have also fallen under the spell of what should have been, but at the end of the day what we have is what we have. A good-hitting team that doesn’t score runs is no different than a lousy-hitting team that does (or even over achieves).
Underachieving accounts for only so much until it too becomes just plain achieving.
What you’re saying is that at some point, expectations have to be revised.
As if any fan of the Cleveland Indians, 2008-2010, would not be aware of that.
by Jay on May 2, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
And now the Mariners give up bases on defense.
What an incredible new “strategy” they are pioneering.
Can you honestly imagine wasting Felix and Cliff on this team? It’s not working so well for the Red Sox either. I’ve been enjoying that.
It’s a stupid idea. I really think that. From what I can tell from defensive statistics (which admittedly isn’t much) defense is far more volatile than M’s fans or whoever want to believe. One of the real appeals of OBP was it’s predictive power going forward and all I’ve ever gleaned from defensive evaluations is that most of them have no predictive power that I can see. Wasn’t Jhonny once the “best” defensive SS in baseball? And now he can’t play 3B?
To speculate even further, OBP is a valuable way to evaluate because, in a game of many, many moving parts it isolates a small part of the game as well as anything: can this player determine where this ball is in the zone? That’s a key question that OBP and OBP based statistics address. Defense, on the other hand, incorporates all of the acts in the game that have the most moving parts.
In a manner of speaking: 99% of pitches are “routine” in that they travel into the strike zone in the way expected. How many defensive plays are actually truly routine? 80%? Less? I think that matters.
Look at the inning the Rangers just put up: the M’s were asked to make non-routine plays on weird balls (choppers, drop shots, etc) and they couldn’t do it despite being the greatest fielding team in the historyz of the worldz.
by afh4 on May 1, 2010 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The holy grail of a definitive defensive stat remains elusive. Odd how subjective defense remains. I think you’re right in considering the impenetrable number of variables. Few grounders are the same.
I don’t think there is a holy grail. It may well be that for the best defensive metric they can devise, you need three years of it before it becomes more significant than one year of batting average — which itself is hardly a high bar. And of course, the “moving target” problem that plagues all evaluation and projection gets a lot worse if you have to look at three years of stats instead of one. (Park effects appear to be similarly volatile.)
If you think about the plus-minus defensive systems out there, it may turn out that they’re no more revealing than RBI, i.e., highly dependent on opportunity.
by Jay on May 1, 2010 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions
And yet here are the M’s foregoing the half the game we actually know how to evaluate totally in order to focus on defense and run prevention based on data that, at best, their GM was collecting independent of his employer while working in the NL.
He is not working with any proprietary Mariners’ stuff, right? I can’t imagine Bavasi ordered someone to start doing advance defensive metrics so that his successor would have three+ years of data to evaluate.
Then again, I’m deep into speculation about what they make their decision-making process.
Jack Z has said that the M’s stat guys came to him with impressive data about Gutierrez, and it matched his impression based on the scouting.
by Jay on May 1, 2010 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Did Jack Z actually say he was ignoring offense? I imagine he thinks he has sufficient offense. He’s not rejecting it, is he?
Part of what I was saying is that it’s the message fans get. Shapiro wasn’t ignoring traditional ideas like actually getting a real corner outfielder, he just thought he could get by with Dellicheals. Similarly, Z thinks he can get by with this offense.
The common fan, however, looks at this lineup, looks at all the moves the Mariners made in the last year, and sees a team that acquired even more run prevention specialists at the expense of any offensive player.
I think you really nailed it with that first paragraph.
It also makes me realize that M’s fans are giving Jack Z huge credit in part just for not being Bavasi. We don’t see quite what all the fuss is about, but we didn’t have Bavasi giving away great guys like Cabrera and Choo for five years (actually for five weeks in those two cases).
So they start off psyched just to have an intelligent adult in charge. Then he gets cool players like Gootz and Cliff, and naturally folks are excited.
Are they overly excited? Of course. At some point, they will step back and realize what they do and do not have in an absolute sense, i.e., irrespective of how it rates as an “improvement.” Is it an over-reaction? Given they spent years with the worst GM in baseball in charge, maybe not.
by Jay on May 2, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Defense stats haven’t been very consistent, either, right? Same guy can be rated great one year, average the next (though the trends seem to show some value). I think you’re right in that you probably give away more than you save. Thank god that game is over.
The whole idea reeks of arrogance, Shapiro’s style of arrogance: “We know what we’re doing, so don’t worry about it. You think we need traditional corner power? A real closer? No we don’t. I will not explain why.” That’s what came out of Shapiro’s office for the fans on the ground for years. I’m not saying that’s what Shap was really doing or meant, but that was the message.
And now, out of Seattle, similarly: “We don’t need to make any effort to acquire a real hitter. Not any effort whatsoever.”
Mariners’ color guy saying that Feliz’ ERA indicates the M’s have “an opportunity” against him.
We shall see.
I was at the game tonight. It was a clunker, obviously, but the beautiful weather made it hard to get too upset. It only costs $25.00 to sit a few rows behind the Tribe dugout these days. I rarely ever sit so close.
About those seats: I have to retract a comment I once made about the danger of foul balls being hit into the crowd. I still believe that there’s essentially very little serious danger for adult men, but if you sit on the lower 3B side, you’ve absolutely got to watch out for screaming liners hit off the bats of lefties, particularly Travis Hafner’s. The danger, I’ve learned, is that everyone ducks out of the way when the ball is crushed. Some poor guy apparently didn’t see one coming, and he got hit squarely in the eye socket. The impact made a chilling sound that left everyone in our section on edge for the rest of the game. He bled profusely. The medical response was immediate. He’s a grown man and probably fine, but the accident surely ruined the outing. I may go to the game again tomorrow, and I’m still not going to bring my glove, but one must do something before the ball hits the head. This guy couldn’t manage to do that, and it probably hurt a ton.
It also looked to me like a less serious version of the same event happened in another section later in the game, also off the bat of Hafner. One must be en garde when he’s at the plate.
I’ve watched a few Twins games this year, and I’ve yet to see any of Mauer’s outs be anything but a near hit. It takes defensive wizardry or a BIP fluke to get him out. He’ll continue to bat .350 with average luck.
I think Fausto’s improvement is for real. Jhonny played well.
Redmond does not appear to have a good throwing arm. I would have pinch hit Branyan for him late in the game, just before things got out of hand.
Fausto no longer skips over the white lines like he used to. He purposefully stamps the foul line after he exits the field, signaling to us that he has changed.
See?
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on May 1, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I was behind home plate and even I heard the thwap of the first guy getting hit. The second guy was just some poor old usher who had his back turned standing at the tunnel entrance and just got nailed on a direct line in the back of the head. I was a good distance away from him but the bump was easily visible.
As for the game, Fausto asked for a new ball after every batter and sometimes even during an at bat. Is this something he does a lot and I’ve just never noticed? Other than that he didn’t look like he could locate anything tonight.
I didn’t notice Fausto doing that, but it’s apparent to me that he’s a deeply OCD or superstitious character. In a charming way, of course.
Kearns is the best regular left fielder since Crisp. He reacts well out there. Our OF defense is a major plus, I think. Grady’s throws to the infield looked strong to me. His arm is certainly not defective.
Obviously, nobody wants anybody tog et hit but the terms of the discussion are subtly changing.
There may be some real dangers at a ballpark; they are not prevented by carrying around your glove. From your description, this guy still gets hit if he has his glove.
Then again, this is one of the all time stupid LGT discussions.
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