Russell Branyan = John McDonald
by afh4 on May 12, 2010 12:23 PM EDT
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PrintThis tweet came through my timeline the other day and, I can't lie, it bothered me. When Drennan came out with his Branyan blow-up, I was over the edge. Casual baseball fans (I have no idea if "TD" considers himself a casual fan; I know Bruce Drennan ought to) consistently have a hard time wrapping their heads around the economics of baseball. Russell Branyan makes $2,000,000 and, heck, that's a lot of money! Wheel of Fortune type money! Bigger than that, even!
Yes and no. $2,000,000 is a lot of money in many contexts. In the context of baseball salaries, though, it's nothing. Accusing a baseball player who was signed as a free agent of "stealing" $2 million is something like accusing an HR assistant at the $32,000 level of "stealing" money in a Fortune 500 company. It just doesn't make sense; no matter how poorly that HR assistant performs, directing anger towards him is absurd. As long as he shows up and is agreeable, he's basically earned his paycheck. He understands the company owes him very little, as he could be fired tomorrow with little fanfare, and that he owes the company very little in return. That's not to say every low-level worker will take that attitude or should, only that it's a justifiable one in Corporate America. You can get all grampa-pants about "earning your keep" if you want but I've observed enough office work to know the score.
Below is a list of players that make salaries around Branyan's. I did this by going through Cot's and pulling out free agent signings that looked similar to me on a quick run-through. I apologize in advance for any major whiffs. I generally avoided anything with more than a year guaranteed, though I made some exceptions if the total value stayed extremely low.
Russell Branyan, $2M: 46 PAs, 124 OPS+
Geoff Blum, $1.5M: 60 PAs, 99 OPS+
John McDonald, $1.5M: 37 PAs, 70 OPS+
Omar Infante, $1.85M: 80 PAs, 84 OPS+
Troy Glaus, $1.75M: 129 PAs, 103 OPS+
Craig Counsell, $2.1M: 58 PAs, 118 OPS+
Gregg Zaun, $2.15M: 96 PAs, 100 OPS+
Kelly Johnson, $2.35M: 132 PAs, 143 OPS+
Aubrey Huff, $3M: 127 PAs, 118 OPS+
Ken Griffey Jr., $2.35M: 87 PAs, 38 OPS+
Alex Cora, $2M: 53 PAs, 61 OPS+
Jerry Hairston Jr., $2.125M: 110 PAs, 41 OPS+
Ramon Hernandez, $3M: 79 PAs, 106 OPS+
Jason GIambi, $1.75M: 38 PAs, 75 OPS+
Miguel Olivo, $2.5M: 87 PAs, 84 OPS+
Melvin Mora, $1.275M: 59 PAs, 86 OPS+
Scott Podsednik, $1.75M: 140 PAs, 115 OPS+
Jim Thome, $1.5M: 82 PAs, 162 OPS+
Mark Kotsay, $1.5M: 62 PAs, 41 OPS+
Omar Vizquel, $1.375M: 36 PAs, 5 OPS+
Randy Winn, $1.1.M: 33 PAs, 52 OPS+
The numbers are ultimately irrelevant. It's too early to be making any lists of this type. What is relevant is the cohort. Russell Branyan exists in the context of Miguel Olivo, Mark Kotsay and Omar Vizquel. That's the type of signing he is. If you didn't recognize that from the start then adjust your expectations accordingly, starting now. If you did recognize that and still got angry at Branyan, ask yourself why you are so upset about, essentially, a utility infielder's salary. A backup catcher's salary. Craig Counsell's salary!
Looking at the list, only 6 guys on it have an OPS+ over 100 and Branyan's one of them. So, what exactly are we complaining about? Even if Branyan had not homered twice last night, would you prefer the Indians had made a run at Geoff Blum? Troy Glaus? We can try to compare Not Fussy Russy to the most similar types of signings (by my quick math, that's Blum, Glaus, Huff, Griffey, Giambi, Podsednik, Thome and Kotsay) and he still comes out as a middle of the pack guy, at the very worst.
I'll briefly respond to the assertion that the Indians would be better off not playing this low-level free agent signing game at all, instead funneling the money back into the draft or some other developmental structure. To that I say, get real. Shapiro has one totally unassailable quality: turning relatively low-value veterans into good prospects. He's done this time and time again (Benuardo, Pavano, Blake, Crisp, Garko). To prevent him from doing that in order to funnel more money into an area where his regime has not been as consistently great (the acquisition of amateur talent) would be foolish. Play to your strengths.
We've seen this kind of misplaced frustration before, directed at guys like Todd Hollandsworth and Ramon Vazquez. I didn't like it then and I don't like it now. Jay has said, "fire-the-manager is the lowest form of baseball discourse," and I largely agree. However, impugn-the-free-agent-who's-making-peanuts is close behind. If this is what you find outrageous, amidst all of the mistakes of the last three years, you've lost the narrative.
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I’m not totally comfortable with the HR stiff analogy. I think its much more understandable for somone in a soul-crushing cubicle making just enough to get by to respond with poor effort. And Branyan can be not actually be fired at any moment, at least not without taking his money with him.
But I’m only disagreeing on the effort/attitude part of it; the analogy fits as far as production. And there’s been nothing to suggest a lack of effort or concentration on Branyan’s part, so it doesn’t matter.
by dgcambridge on May 12, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
And someone working for pennies would think it preposterous that anybody making 32K would not be some sort of all-star HR stiff. Yes, it’s a different scale, but he lives within that scale: the top performers make 10 times what he does, just like the HR stiff. His house payment is 10 times what the HR stiff’s is. Everything is scaled up. It’s his reality.
Kidding kidding. I just came across that the other day.
I understand what you’re saying, I really do. But I still think there’s some truth to the idea that playing sports and getting paid well, on an American scale, is somewhat of a rare privilege. And I do think that a certain level of effort outside of the average office space is appropriate (/glances toward Seattle). I don’t have any problem with Branyan’s approach. Drennan does.
I’m with you on your overall point, Andrew, but it’s going too far to pretend that it’s just a matter of “scaling up” — that it’s not a major qualitative difference. Maybe you’re not pretending that, and in any case it’s a bit tangential to the point, but still.
by Logodaedalus on May 12, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not trying to say that but it’s no more of a major qualitative difference than that between being born in America and being born in pick-your-other-3rd-world-locale.
At any rate, as DG points out, this is totally tangential because the argument would be built on the idea that Branyan is not trying.
Sure, no argument there. I’m not really sure what rides on this, so I guess I’ll just leave it.
by Logodaedalus on May 12, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Back in my day, they eliminated people every day. And that was if you had the right color onion on your belt.
by Logodaedalus on May 12, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it is just a matter of scaling up.
He makes significantly less than the average salary. Unless you think he isn’t making an effort, he cannot be held accountable for the fate of the team.
Like I said, I agree with the particular point Andrew was making: within the baseball context, sure, he’s small potatoes. I was just reacting to the idea that because his house payment is ten times as much, etc., it’s basically the same kind of life just scaled up.
by Logodaedalus on May 13, 2010 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Which Andrew probably wasn’t really saying anyway.
by Logodaedalus on May 13, 2010 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions
This seems like a good forum to mention I don’t quite get OPS+. A 180 means the player is 80% better than average, right? Meaning that balancing out all stats, the player would basically have an 80% higher OBP, SLG, whatever goes into the formula. Suppose it were just those 2, and league average was .333/.400. Do I need to be at a 1319 OPS [1.8 * (.333+.400)] to get there?
I ask, because I want to understand Omar Vizquel’s 5. He is 95% worse than the average player, right? His OPS would be 5% of .733, mean about 36, right? It’s actually 384, a far cry from that.
Am I way off base and it’s actually standard deviations? And Vizquel’s numbers are out around 3 standard deviations from the mean?
The formula for OPS+ is 100*[(OBP/lg OBP)-1], adjusted for park factors. Ignoring the park factor for a moment, that gives you 100*[(.222/.331)(.161/.405)-1], or about 6.8.
You’re overthinking it.
If a guy has a 180, it means that his OBP and slugging are a combined 80% above average … meaning it’s really more like 40%. Like, 40% better OBP and 40% better slugging, or some other combination that roughly adds up to 80.
Omar’s OBP is .222 against league average .336, so he’s 66% of league average, so that’s -34. His slugging is .161 against league average of .412, so he’s 39% of league average, so that’s -61. The total is -95, so on a scale where 100 is average, he gets a 5.
Serious question, not being flippant. I’ve never delved too much into the time clock/arbitration stuff, despite the excellent pieces you guys have done here. But I’m sincerely wondering… what makes this $2 mil spent on Branyan in a year we won’t compete worth it when we fret about paying someone like Santana extra money if bring him up to develop instead of suppressing his service time?
I know I’m overlooking something… a guy stands to make more than $2 mil post-arb, right? Can someone please explain, in idiot’s terms, what I’m missing here (which is undoubtedly substantial)?
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
Estimates I’ve seen for the value of Super 2 status range from $6 million (Braun’s contract) to $19 million (the Washington Post’s estimate for Strasburg). Also, the figure to think about isn’t $2 million, but the difference between $2 million and what you pay the guy who is on the roster instead of Branyan.
That does; club control is based on whether the player finishes the season with six full years. 172 days out of 183 counts as a full year, so it takes 12 days to get below the full-year threshold.
Beyond that, it’s the extra, fourth year of arbitration that you’re trying to stay away from, and generally that takes another 45 days or so to clear, hence the first-week-of-June predictions that often pop up for elite prospects’ debuts.
I just don’t see what the one has to do with the other.
As Andrew hints, we signed Eduardo Perez to a similar contract and later flipped him for Asdrubal Cabrera. Asdrubal Cabrera is worth a hell of a lot more than $2 million. Hell, if you believe the FanGraphs numbers, he’s already produced $20 million more in marginal wins than what he’s been paid, and he’s got another 3.8 seasons before he can be a free agent, which probably means another $30 million in marginal value.
Granted, this is a freakishly good result, but it should be clear that if you do ten signings like this, which as much savvy as possible, you should be able to get your money’s worth in acquired prospects alone. Any significant acquired prospects are far more valuable than first-round draft picks, and first-round draft picks get higher signing bonuses than what we pay Russ Branyan.
In other words, Russ Branyan is a bargain even if you don’t count the value of his on-field performance in an Indians uniform.
OK, makes sense. Thanks.
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on May 13, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
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