April Starter RATBOPs and BPAs.
I'm lazy. I want something like a pitcher's OPS that can save me all the cross referencing between FIP and BABIP and FPK% and FB/GB% and QS and everything else. Probably somebody's already got something, but I haven't quite found it. Anyway, here's RATBOP, which is Running Around the Bases + Outs Percentage. Each batter can go a maximum of four bases; how many did they actually travel? How deep into the game does the starter go? A perfect game has a RATBOP of 2000 (as does a game in which 9 baserunners are wiped out in DPs; I believe in redemption); 1000 of it on the outs recorded side and 1000 on the bases travelled side. BPAs are total bases travelled per plate appearance. So here are the RATBOP/BPAs for April:
TALBOT 1595 0.545
FAUSTO 1567 0.696
HUFF 1548 0.732
JAKE 1379 0.943
JMAST 1260 1.074
Best game RATBOPs were Talbot's 1925 and Huff's 1903 CGs. Worst was Masterson's 4th start, 1053.
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BPA I like, since it’s sort of a total bases against percentage, and I think total bases is far and away the most useful counting stat.
I am presently drinking from a BPA-free Camelbak water bottle.
by fleerdon on May 2, 2010 12:07 PM EDT reply actions
Did you do the BPA for other pitchers to see where the tribe fearsome five-some stack up? How did you remove stolen bases or passed balls from the BPA numbers or is the total bases the number before any base running and strictly the at bat?
either way its interesting and BPA i like
I just did Tribe hurlers. Individual game RATBOPs: Jake, 1103, 1363, 1615, 1295 and 1515. Fausto, 1511, 1730, 1487, 1703 and 1398. JM, 1386, 1454, 1140, 1053 and, yesterday (not included in above totals), 1665. Huff, 1510, 1903, 1477, 1300. Talbot, 1296, 1925, 1642 and 1528. Starts around 1500 are akin to a minimal QS; over 1700 is an exceptional start.
PBs and Errors (except the pitcher’s own) are for the most part removed from the equation. But WPs, SBs and baserunning, a la first to third on a single, are all part of the Bases total for both RATBOP and BPA.
Okay, Liriano after today’s game has a cumulative 1671 RATBOP and a .518 BPA. But that’s the last Twinkie I figure out. Huff had a game RATBOP of 1258; season now at 1491, with an .819 BPA.
That’s a RATBOP-a-loo-whop, a whop-bam oooh.
by fleerdon on May 2, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
We’re sorry, RATBOP is a proprietary algorithm… Any attempt to reverse compile its results is subject to litigation.
And as a result, the Cleveland Indians are the most hated team in baseball.
by jakesinger777 on May 2, 2010 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Masterson’s first inning Saturday, for example: Span single, to second on a Hudson single; Kubel and Morneau K; Cuddyer single loads the sacks; Thome singles to score two, Cuddyer to third; Hardy GO. 7 PA, 28 maximum bases; 4 bases for Span, 4 for Hudson, 3 for Cuddyer and 1 for Thome = 12 bases. 16 bases prevented is .571. 3 outs accomplished of 27 is .111. Add ‘em up: Masterson’s RATBOP after one inning was 682. BPA was 1.714: 12 bases in 7 PAs. Wound up with a game RATBOP of 1665 and a BPA of .750.
Does anyone like the idea of fractional ERAs? Runs can be divided into 1/4ths. The starter gives up a double, and then the reliever gives up a run-scoring single. Rather than attribute the entire run to the starter, each pitcher would receive a 1/2 earned run.
Stupid? Maybe. Functional at all?
It would give a more realistic portrait of relief ERA. I suppose, however, one could just look at Inherited Runners Scored to see how effective/ineffective RPs are beyond ERA and WHIP.
Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!
But not all inherited runners are created equal (i.e. with the based loaded, nobody out, one would say if a RP can hold them to one run he was damn successful, for example).
by jakesinger777 on May 2, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree.
One simple system I’ve thought about is to assign baserunner responsibility based on the number of outs when the pitching change occurs. With no outs, all baserunners are charged to the old pitcher. With one out, a runner on second and/or third is charged to the old pitcher, but a runner on first is charged to the new pitcher. With two outs, a runner on third is charged to the old pitcher, but a runner on first and/or second is charged to the new pitcher.
Basically, the new pitcher is expected to get at least as many outs as the bases he allows any runner to advance.
What about game scores?
Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk
RATBOP is a variation on the game score, but tries to be more inclusive by: adding in bases advanced by baserunners, stolen bases, wild pitches, balks; making a distinction between a single and a double, triple or homer; allowing a pickoff, caught stealing or double play ball to erase Bases from the pitcher’s total. RATBOP doesn’t care about strikeouts qua strikeouts; nor does it count unearned runs—baserunners are frozen at the point where an inning would have ended without an error (unless that error was the pitcher’s own—no free rides in RATBOP). But the earned run clock restarts—say a Jhonny error on a ball that would have ended an inning allows three runs to score. Those baserunners aren’t counted at 4,4,4 Bases but rather 3,2,1, and there’s no further advancing for them. But whereas any subsequent run in that inning is an unearned run, RATBOP has more stringent requirements, and if the pitcher gives up single-double-homer after the Jhonny error, there’s another 4,4,4 in the RATBOP bases total.
As I say, I was trying to come up with an OPSian, all-purpose number. Mebbe I have, mebbe I haven’t.
I’m interested in this idea. It seems that you’re (sort of) rewarding a pitcher for seeing extra batters in an inning, since you divide by the total number of possible bases per PA. I know the best is still 3 up, 3 down and no bases. But, why not go with bases given up per out recorded? That would be total bases divided by outs. So, a grand slam plus three outs = 16/3 = 5.33
You could do that: Bases per outs, not counting last night: Talbot 0.70, Fausto 0.96, Huff 1.20
Jake 1.40, Masterson 1.58. In the BPA version, Cy Young is close to .500, and inadequate is probably above .900. In your BPO version, the median probably shifts to something like 1.10.
Does it reward the extra PAs? in an inning that results in zero runs, e.g., 3 up/3 down is 0 bases in 12 PAs; the pitcher gets 1000 points of RATBOP (and a constant 111 per inning for getting 3 outs). Putting a single runner on gets you 938, 875 or 813, depending on what base he’s stranded on. Seeing two extra batters: 850, 800 or 750 RATBOP points. Leaving the sacks juiced gets you 750 points. So a triple plus three outs is 813; giving up a single and a walk is 850: yes, you’ve faced more batters and walk away with a higher score, but the runner didn’t travel as far.
Also, one major difference between RATBOP and Game scores is RATBOP rewards IP more than GSc does. Facing fewer batters will make going deeper into a game more likely.
The BPA numbers were a corollary of the principle goal, which was a single number that would stand as a marker for how well a pitcher is doing as the year progresses.
You could do that: Bases per outs, not counting last night: Talbot 0.70, Fausto 0.96, Huff 1.20
Jake 1.40, Masterson 1.58.
I’m not sure this is telling us anything new that the existing numbers don’t already somewhat define.
Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!
Well, me doing any of this is like you guys assembling for a powerpoint on the elephant from one of the blind guys. I’ll claim this for RATBOP: it’s fun to say, and, when used in concert with a regular regimen of dental hygiene, kills germs, helps prevent plaque and gingivitis, keeps teeth cleaner longer and freshens breath without the burn of alcohol.
Using PAs does allow you to rate pitchers who record no outs. On the other hand, picking-off a runner at first doesn’t score as well as a fly-out against the next batter. Maybe that’s appropriate.
I think the knock against the stat is that it doesn’t seem (at first glance) to provide insight. It doesn’t do much to explain why a pitcher is good or bad. However, I think it is probably a better reflection of that than ERA.
It may be particularly useful for relievers.
















