Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Auto Racer Jeffrey Earnhardt Excited to Make MMA Debut

April Starter RATBOPs and BPAs.

I'm lazy. I want something like a pitcher's OPS that can save me all the cross referencing between FIP and BABIP and FPK% and FB/GB% and QS and everything else. Probably somebody's already got something, but I haven't quite found it. Anyway, here's RATBOP, which is Running Around the Bases + Outs Percentage. Each batter can go a maximum of four bases; how many did they actually travel? How deep into the game does the starter go? A perfect game has a RATBOP of 2000 (as does a game in which 9 baserunners are wiped out in DPs; I believe in redemption); 1000 of it on the outs recorded side and 1000 on the bases travelled side. BPAs are total bases travelled per plate appearance. So here are the RATBOP/BPAs for April:

TALBOT       1595     0.545
FAUSTO      1567     0.696
HUFF          1548      0.732
JAKE           1379     0.943
JMAST        1260     1.074

Best game RATBOPs were Talbot's 1925 and Huff's 1903 CGs. Worst was Masterson's 4th start, 1053.

Comment 26 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

BPA I like, since it’s sort of a total bases against percentage, and I think total bases is far and away the most useful counting stat.

I am presently drinking from a BPA-free Camelbak water bottle.

by fleerdon on May 2, 2010 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Did you do the BPA for other pitchers to see where the tribe fearsome five-some stack up? How did you remove stolen bases or passed balls from the BPA numbers or is the total bases the number before any base running and strictly the at bat?

either way its interesting and BPA i like

by returner3 on May 2, 2010 12:56 PM EDT reply actions  

I just did Tribe hurlers. Individual game RATBOPs: Jake, 1103, 1363, 1615, 1295 and 1515. Fausto, 1511, 1730, 1487, 1703 and 1398. JM, 1386, 1454, 1140, 1053 and, yesterday (not included in above totals), 1665. Huff, 1510, 1903, 1477, 1300. Talbot, 1296, 1925, 1642 and 1528. Starts around 1500 are akin to a minimal QS; over 1700 is an exceptional start.
PBs and Errors (except the pitcher’s own) are for the most part removed from the equation. But WPs, SBs and baserunning, a la first to third on a single, are all part of the Bases total for both RATBOP and BPA.

by YoDaddyWags on May 2, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay, Liriano after today’s game has a cumulative 1671 RATBOP and a .518 BPA. But that’s the last Twinkie I figure out. Huff had a game RATBOP of 1258; season now at 1491, with an .819 BPA.

by YoDaddyWags on May 2, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s a RATBOP-a-loo-whop, a whop-bam oooh.

by fleerdon on May 2, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think this is a vague insult, but I’m too stupid to figure it out.

by YoDaddyWags on May 2, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m just looking for a formula here.

by Jay on May 2, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

We’re sorry, RATBOP is a proprietary algorithm… Any attempt to reverse compile its results is subject to litigation.

by Logodaedalus on May 2, 2010 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is that what happens when Antonetti pushes the red button on Diamondview?

by Roger Dorn on May 2, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

And as a result, the Cleveland Indians are the most hated team in baseball.

by jakesinger777 on May 2, 2010 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Masterson’s first inning Saturday, for example: Span single, to second on a Hudson single; Kubel and Morneau K; Cuddyer single loads the sacks; Thome singles to score two, Cuddyer to third; Hardy GO. 7 PA, 28 maximum bases; 4 bases for Span, 4 for Hudson, 3 for Cuddyer and 1 for Thome = 12 bases. 16 bases prevented is .571. 3 outs accomplished of 27 is .111. Add ‘em up: Masterson’s RATBOP after one inning was 682. BPA was 1.714: 12 bases in 7 PAs. Wound up with a game RATBOP of 1665 and a BPA of .750.

by YoDaddyWags on May 2, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Does anyone like the idea of fractional ERAs? Runs can be divided into 1/4ths. The starter gives up a double, and then the reliever gives up a run-scoring single. Rather than attribute the entire run to the starter, each pitcher would receive a 1/2 earned run.

Stupid? Maybe. Functional at all?

It would give a more realistic portrait of relief ERA. I suppose, however, one could just look at Inherited Runners Scored to see how effective/ineffective RPs are beyond ERA and WHIP.

Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!

by emd2k3 on May 2, 2010 11:11 PM EDT reply actions  

But not all inherited runners are created equal (i.e. with the based loaded, nobody out, one would say if a RP can hold them to one run he was damn successful, for example).

by jakesinger777 on May 2, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree.

One simple system I’ve thought about is to assign baserunner responsibility based on the number of outs when the pitching change occurs. With no outs, all baserunners are charged to the old pitcher. With one out, a runner on second and/or third is charged to the old pitcher, but a runner on first is charged to the new pitcher. With two outs, a runner on third is charged to the old pitcher, but a runner on first and/or second is charged to the new pitcher.

Basically, the new pitcher is expected to get at least as many outs as the bases he allows any runner to advance.

by Jay on May 2, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s interesting. If I had the time, I would go through some game logs to see how it would impact the numbers, but I probably don’t.

Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!

by emd2k3 on May 3, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

What about game scores?

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk

by odradek on May 2, 2010 11:51 PM EDT reply actions  

RATBOP is a variation on the game score, but tries to be more inclusive by: adding in bases advanced by baserunners, stolen bases, wild pitches, balks; making a distinction between a single and a double, triple or homer; allowing a pickoff, caught stealing or double play ball to erase Bases from the pitcher’s total. RATBOP doesn’t care about strikeouts qua strikeouts; nor does it count unearned runs—baserunners are frozen at the point where an inning would have ended without an error (unless that error was the pitcher’s own—no free rides in RATBOP). But the earned run clock restarts—say a Jhonny error on a ball that would have ended an inning allows three runs to score. Those baserunners aren’t counted at 4,4,4 Bases but rather 3,2,1, and there’s no further advancing for them. But whereas any subsequent run in that inning is an unearned run, RATBOP has more stringent requirements, and if the pitcher gives up single-double-homer after the Jhonny error, there’s another 4,4,4 in the RATBOP bases total.
As I say, I was trying to come up with an OPSian, all-purpose number. Mebbe I have, mebbe I haven’t.

by YoDaddyWags on May 3, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

The explanation seems to be a little lacking, both in terms of what it is doing and why I should care. All I really care about in terms of pitching is:

How many runs has he allowed? In what context? (League, Park, Division) By what means? (K%, BB%, GB%)

by ClarkM on May 3, 2010 11:36 AM EDT reply actions  

I’m interested in this idea. It seems that you’re (sort of) rewarding a pitcher for seeing extra batters in an inning, since you divide by the total number of possible bases per PA. I know the best is still 3 up, 3 down and no bases. But, why not go with bases given up per out recorded? That would be total bases divided by outs. So, a grand slam plus three outs = 16/3 = 5.33

by 9James on May 3, 2010 10:32 PM EDT reply actions  

You could do that: Bases per outs, not counting last night: Talbot 0.70, Fausto 0.96, Huff 1.20
Jake 1.40, Masterson 1.58. In the BPA version, Cy Young is close to .500, and inadequate is probably above .900. In your BPO version, the median probably shifts to something like 1.10.
Does it reward the extra PAs? in an inning that results in zero runs, e.g., 3 up/3 down is 0 bases in 12 PAs; the pitcher gets 1000 points of RATBOP (and a constant 111 per inning for getting 3 outs). Putting a single runner on gets you 938, 875 or 813, depending on what base he’s stranded on. Seeing two extra batters: 850, 800 or 750 RATBOP points. Leaving the sacks juiced gets you 750 points. So a triple plus three outs is 813; giving up a single and a walk is 850: yes, you’ve faced more batters and walk away with a higher score, but the runner didn’t travel as far.
Also, one major difference between RATBOP and Game scores is RATBOP rewards IP more than GSc does. Facing fewer batters will make going deeper into a game more likely.
The BPA numbers were a corollary of the principle goal, which was a single number that would stand as a marker for how well a pitcher is doing as the year progresses.

by YoDaddyWags on May 4, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

You could do that: Bases per outs, not counting last night: Talbot 0.70, Fausto 0.96, Huff 1.20
Jake 1.40, Masterson 1.58.

I’m not sure this is telling us anything new that the existing numbers don’t already somewhat define.

Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!

by emd2k3 on May 4, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, me doing any of this is like you guys assembling for a powerpoint on the elephant from one of the blind guys. I’ll claim this for RATBOP: it’s fun to say, and, when used in concert with a regular regimen of dental hygiene, kills germs, helps prevent plaque and gingivitis, keeps teeth cleaner longer and freshens breath without the burn of alcohol.

by YoDaddyWags on May 4, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Whoa! I was just talking about those particular numbers,

The RATBOP on the other hand, seems to be more interesting from a totality point of view.

Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!

by emd2k3 on May 4, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Using PAs does allow you to rate pitchers who record no outs. On the other hand, picking-off a runner at first doesn’t score as well as a fly-out against the next batter. Maybe that’s appropriate.

I think the knock against the stat is that it doesn’t seem (at first glance) to provide insight. It doesn’t do much to explain why a pitcher is good or bad. However, I think it is probably a better reflection of that than ERA.

It may be particularly useful for relievers.

by 9James on May 4, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

the idea was, i think, to make a stat for pitchers similar to OPS. OPS doesn’t provide any insight as to why a hitter is good or bad, but its better at determining that than say batting average.

I hate the steelers the way a mother loves a child.

by notthatnoise on May 4, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Constantly updated Indians news, lots of in-depth analysis, live in-game discussions — and more fanatical and thoughtful Indians fans than every other web site combined.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Indians70sicon_small
Youkilis for Pure Rage
Avatard_new_small
Indians by the Numbers — #36
Topps1978-332f_small
Historical Timeline
427px-nap_lajoie_1913_small
Pick 6 Discussion
Topps1978-332f_small
Indians by the Numbers — #35
Avatard_new_small
Indians by the Numbers — #34
Small
Indians 2012 Player At Bat Music
Etat_small
Tribe Observations - 15 games In
Draft_lens6670022module54040272photo_1251768414louissockalexisicon4b_small
LGT, in the belly of the beast.
Tribe_cap_small
LGT Safeco Field Meet Up?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Featured Poll

Poll
Will Matt LaPorta be on the opening day roster?
Yes
59 votes
No
140 votes

199 votes | Poll has closed

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

2012 MLB Power Rankings - May 21st
Kerry Wood hangs 'em up
I did not like Cleveland Municipal Stadium. Like it? How could anyone like...
Garko gets another shot
Broadcaster Rankings (Radio): 30-21
Indians at Fenway don't drink beer; they watch TV.
Michael Brantley: A Studious 4-for-5 Night
Damon Makes His Case for HOF
Casey Blake to Retire
To longtoss, or not to longtoss

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Yahoo_full_count

Managers

427px-nap_lajoie_1913_small Ryan

Dosequisman_small Jay

Editors

3444ant_black_small APV

47b8dd28b3127cceb64839d9746800000026102bauwjrq3za_small afh4