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Early Weekend 6-Pack (5/27/10)

The Indians head into today with the 3rd worst record in the league (better than Baltimore! better than Houston!), their starting SS and CFer on the DL, and a team trendline heading decidedly in the wrong direction.  So, after our opening volley, we will focus today's 6-pack more on the future than on the present.

1. This rollercoaster makes the Iron Dragon seem fun.

Graph_medium

So this is a chart showing a rolling 5-game average of runs scored (blue) vs. runs against.  As you can see, after its dismal beginning, our offense has shown some signs of improvement....although the injuries to Cabrera and Sizemore might be putting an end to that.  Unfortunately, the positive start from our pitching staff has been deteriorating at a greater rate than our offensive improvement.  The result?...not good.

2. You got to change your evil ways

The Indians future, in the form of Carlos Santana, is going to be the present pretty quickly.  Santana's arrival should provide some excitement and some immediate offensive uplift.  But Santana is not just going to be bringing his bat, and it is worth recognizing that not every aspect of Santana's game is likely to be initially brilliant.  Kevin Goldstein had this to say about Santana earlier in the week:

Obviously he can hit, but scouting reports of the defense have been pretty rough this year.

Santana has actually allowed only 1 passed ball this year, but opposing runners have already stolen 26 bases off him against just 6 caught stealing.  Additionally, don't forget that our supposedly studly AAA starting staff has not exactly performed at its peak this year, something for which Santana bears at least some indirect culpability.  Perhaps just coincidentally, it is Santana's fellow Latin American pitchers that have performed most poorly for Columbus this season (Rondon, Gomez, Pino - or maybe it is just a Venezuelan thing...).

3. Chun-Hsiu Chen is the most interesting man in the world

Probably not, but he certainly has come out of relative obscurity this season.  As far as I can tell Chen was not even noteworthy enough to make it onto Tony Lastoria's top 50 prospect list this past off-season.  Now, the 21-year old Taiwanese catcher is fourth in the Midwest League with an OPS of .931 (In May alone he has hit .417/.475/.722 with 15 extra-base hits).  Given his position and international origin you could even consider Chen to be age appropriate.

4. Moses Cleveland sailed into Lake Erie on the tradewinds...

Star-divide

With the Indians season not in doubt, it is already possible to begin speculating on who will be shown the door mid-season and who might step up and fill their spot.  Paul had his take on this subject up on the DiaTribe yesterday.  I'm less certain there is going to be a massive upheaval.  If he pitches well, Jake Westbrook will almost certainly be gone.  But much of the Indians other useful detritus is just that, useful but not essential.  Austin Kearns is no Victor Martinez.  It remains to be seen whether we can Ryan Garko guys like Kearns, Branyan, Duncan or even Peralta off on other teams during the trade season.  I think back to Jamey Carroll last season, who in my mind was one of the Indians more useful pieces, who didn't ever get moved.  It would certainly be great if we could pass a few of these guys off, but I think unless there is significant pressure from a guy like Michael Brantley to clear a spot, we might see Shelley Duncan or Austin Kearns for most of the season.

5. The Price is trending upwards

One of the least-mentioned arms we brought in last season was Bryan Price (aka, the "one other guy" in the Martinez trade with Boston).  After working out of the rotation last season with mixed results, the Indians put him in the bullpen to start the '10 season.  He struggled a bit in April, particularly with a few long-balls, and then made a short DL stint.  He allowed 2 runs in his first appearance post-DL in May, but since then has put together 6 appearances in which he has allowed just 2 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks and 7 Ks in 7 innings of work.  I'm not going to get too excited about a AA reliever, but I am happy to see any evidence of the Indians developing players into roles they can succeed at.

6. 3 is the magic number

If you don't consider Michael Brantley a real CFer, and you don't see guys like Jose Constanza or Donnie Webb as viable major league players, Jordan Henry is probably the Indians best CF prospect.  The 21-year old 2009 draftee put up a very solid .408 OBP, along with a 22/23 SB record, in extended action for Mahoning Valley last season.  So far in Kinston this year, he has stepped up his game even more with a .475 OBP (11/12 SB).  He doesn't hit for power, but he gets on base a ton, is fast, and if last year's numbers hold out, is a plus defender in CF.  And oh yeah...his batting average this year?....333.  In April?...333.  In May?....333.  On grass?...333.  With runners on base?...333.  With the bases empty?...333.  Curious.

Rogues-gallery-for-squall-ipa-ale-beer_medium

 


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i just had this beer and picked up another for later. great stuff.

by Brick. on May 27, 2010 11:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Morning baseball today for LC and Akron. Akron’s down 2-1 in the 4th. Didn’t realize how on fire John Drennen has been. 2-2 today, 17-32 over his last 10 games. LC 1-1 in the 2nd. Chen had an RBI double in the 1st for the Captains.

by APV on May 27, 2010 11:43 AM EDT reply actions  

Cord Phelps crashing back to earth.

by bewwolv on May 27, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pestano seems to be taking well to his new arm slot…

by stuart dean on May 27, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s an interesting question about which of these veterans are really going to be moved. Not as much of it depends on what WE would like to see and guys like Kearns, Grudz, Duncan, and the others may be more valuable to the Indians as we play out the string here than what they’re going to net. Sure, getting all of the flotsam and jetsam overboard may look good right now, but what Peralta legitimately brings back is another story.

Kearns is particularly interesting to me, as he actually makes sense for the long-term (or at least a few years) as a RH OF, although the cost might be prohibitive depending upon how 2010 plays out. Looking deeper, I’m wondering if you try to “sell high” on Kearns before you find out what happens when his 2010 BABIP of .412 reverts back to his career BABIP, which is exactly .300.

It’s been said before, but it’s a weird feeling to root for these guys to succeed to boost their trade value with them helping the team infrequently win just feeling like a nice benefit.

by The DiaTriber on May 27, 2010 11:54 AM EDT reply actions  

I think the weird part is having to root for one guy to play so he can boost his trade value, while you really want to root for the other guy to play so we can win more games in the future — and, one suspects, maybe more in the present, too.

by Jay on May 27, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is something I’ve been wondering too – if Kearns could be signed cheaply enuf he could be a nice asset rather than traded for a prospect. He’s the best left fielder we’ve had in a long time, and Laporta’s supposed to be heading to 1B anyway.

by mcrose on May 27, 2010 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Given his position and international origin you could even consider Chen to be age appropriate.

Have to agree. Did you figure a Progress Score for him?

by Jay on May 27, 2010 1:12 PM EDT reply actions  

No – pretty sure that number would be pretty meaningless two months into the season. But…were his numbers to remain constant throughout the remainder of the season, he’d end up with a 7.3,,,which is pretty good. And that is assuming his catcher defense isn’t great (2.5 positional adjustment).

by APV on May 27, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not saying it’s meaningful, just trying to put the age/level/position thing into context, which is why we designed Progress Score to begin with.

by Jay on May 27, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I also didn’t give Chen the benefit of the doubt on his catching ability. I figure he has language issues that make the staff handling issue more complicated. His stolen base numbers seem pretty fine (43 CS, 76 SB), but the passed ball numbers are high (5 already this season).

by APV on May 27, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

LC announcers say he has a cannon for an arm.

by mcrose on May 27, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s high, but is this really a tougher problem than teaching a guy how to make hard contact with the bat on the ball?

by Jay on May 28, 2010 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rec for using Ryan Garko as a verb.

Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!

by emd2k3 on May 27, 2010 1:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Garko is all parts of speech

by APV on May 27, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

And can play all positions on the field.

"I call myself common sense" —Manny Acta

by westbrook on May 27, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

More from KG today:

# Nick Hagadone, LHP, Indians (High-A Kinston): 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K. 45 whiffs in 37 2/3. Innings, but also 29 walks. Stuff is nasty as nearly anyone in the league, but not efficient enough to get into late innings.
# Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians (High-A Kinston): 2-for-4, 3B, 2 RBI, K. By all accounts, he’s playing a pretty solid second base, and his .302/.375/.451 line is giving scouts even more cause for optimism.

by APV on May 27, 2010 1:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Yesterday, Law and Chuchill on ESPN did a 2009 draft review.

1. Cleveland was one of the only teams in both leagues, if the not the only team, in which it’s top three guys are all making immediate impact.

2. White: Not dominant, but effective. Splitter is getting tons of grounders
3. Kipnis: Bat will play at 2B, but the conversion to 2B is a “longshot.”
3. Gardner: K’s may not be real, but GB rate is.

by xrickx on May 27, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

seems odd to do a 2009 draft preview yesterday, but i suppose i wouldn’t put anything past ESPN at this point. “Who was next?”

by Brick. on May 27, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

  I don’t think it was meant to be an assessment of who “won” the draft last year, just a status update.

by xrickx on May 27, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

don’t mind me, it was a long stretch for a bad joke…

by Brick. on May 27, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

The 09 draft is looking pretty good so far. I like Henry too, as a “real” CF/leadoff guy.

Picks 4 and 5 are doing ok too – Kyle Bellows has been playing a great 3B by all reports, and his bat is starting to come around. Austin Adams has been good so far converting to pitcher, better than expected.

by mcrose on May 27, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ouch. When I read “Donnie Webb”, for some reason I thought of Mickey Hall, and I thought you were grouping Constanza and Hall together.

by JRontherim on May 27, 2010 7:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Please flame me if this has been argued a million times or there is some super obvious reason why I’m an idiot, but why are we forcing Santana to play C? We’re an AL team. We definitely have one spot and likely two spots to hide a mediocre defender that can mash. By all accounts Santana has superstar offensive potential. Why not try to teach him 1b and let him play 15+ years at that relatively easy spot? I know blah blah blah a C that is a masher is worth considerably more than a 1b or DH that is a masher…But this isn’t fantasy baseball. Catching in the MLB takes a significant toll on one’s body and it’s crazy to think that grinding season after season behind the plate won’t have an adverse impact on his offensive production. So what — we won’t have our version of Joe Mauer. We could just settle for several seasons of Justin Morneau. Seems to me a much better upgrade over basically any Indians’ 1b since Thome.

Santana is the clubs top asset right now in my opinion. Why they want to continue to take the risk of him breaking down playing C and his present defensive liability status is beyond me. So please explain to me how wrong I am.

by obobcatu on May 27, 2010 9:37 PM EDT reply actions  

We have other guys who are prospects at first and third. If Santana isn’t catching, we get more Lou Marson and then get to wait for Chen.

By the time Santana makes his MauerMove to first, he’ll be “too expensive to keep” and like Victor, he’ll be playing for a team we hate.

"I call myself common sense" —Manny Acta

by westbrook on May 27, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

This sums it up pretty nicely. Well said.

Come on, four billion!

by Joel D on May 28, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

But if we did move Santana to 1B it would open up the possibility of signing Vic this offseason.

Right…right?

"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl

by world dictator on May 28, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Tell me you’re kidding.

by Jay on May 28, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

very much so

"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl

by world dictator on May 29, 2010 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

If/when he breaks down, it’ll almost certainly be after we’re done with him. That is not a problem for a small-market team to worry about.

As unsexy as this will sound, the reason we don’t move Santana to 1B because Garko hits better than Marson.

by Jay on May 28, 2010 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

moses cleaveland spelling

It remains, of course, a mystery as to why the president of the Connecticut Company (who claimed northeastern Ohio for the Nutmeg State in 1796) lost an “a” in his name — the popular story is that it wouldn’t fit across the top of the newspaper. Anyway, I thought I’d point out the correct spelling. I visited his grave once in Canterbury, CT., and noticed that a monument was erected by the City of Cleveland in 1906. I have been arguing up here that Connecticut has only one real home team, and it isn’t the Yankees or Red Sox, but the Tribe. So far I’ve managed to convince no one.

by just a bit outside on May 28, 2010 8:56 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

What else do you expect from the Nutmeg State?

Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!

by emd2k3 on May 28, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nice to see you. You should speak up more.

by Jay on May 28, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was born in Cleveland on July 22; a full 171 years to the day after Moses Cleaveland and company first arrived. My parents, unsure of whether to give me the middle name Antony or Anthony, settled on just the initial “A”. And while that would eventually be reconsidered – I have always imagined that single letter, lost from the name of my home city, somehow extracted itself from the ether and stuck itself to me.

I'm emotional about my glove...

by JimmyAB on May 28, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

So you’re kinda like Harry S Truman, who also has no middle name because his parents couldn’t choose one.

by Buckeye Brad on May 28, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

My wife has no middle name because her parents never gave her one. Our son has 2 middle names because we couldn’t settle on which one we wanted. Our daugher has 2 middle names because we didn’t want her to feel slighted.

Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!

by emd2k3 on May 28, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

That chart is awesome!!!

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin

by Spidey on May 28, 2010 2:03 PM EDT reply actions  

It’s probably the best chart we’ve ever had. And so true!

by jhon on May 28, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Meanwhile, KC is leaving us in their torrid wake.

Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!

by emd2k3 on May 28, 2010 2:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Chuck must be gleeful.

Come on, four billion!

by Joel D on May 28, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

So, this occurred to me early today while I was out in the yard. What happened to the other Nick?

by NickFantana on May 28, 2010 5:28 PM EDT reply actions  

I assumed you were back on your meds.

by dgcambridge on May 29, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

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