Early Weekend 6-Pack (5/6/10)

*Crosby has yet to pitch in the minos, this year.

These coming years are when Kenny Williams gets exposed as the below average GM I know he really is.

Been waiting for this to happen for six or seven years.

FYI I was off by one star on Hudson. Goldstein has him as a 4 star prospect in his 2010 write-up.

Just wanted to make a few points in response:

Regarding the Tigers, I take it we’re in agreement that Verlander and Porcello are pretty much undisputed FOR-type starters? I realize that Verlander was picked #2 overall, but the point of my post wasn’t to condemn Indians’ drafts (although that is a hobby of mine). I was just trying to paint a picture of where we stood relative to divisional rivals, and the manner in which Verlander was acquired isn’t really relevant. Now regarding Scherzer and Bonderman, I don’t think you can make an argument that anybody on our current staff stacks up well against either. Clearly Scherzer is going through some problems with his loss in velocity and Bonderman’s shoulder is an issue, but both guys have track records that none of our “back four” can quite match, and both are still putting up peripherals that best our starters’ by a pretty wide margin. But beyond that, the level of uncertainty in that Tigers’ rotation is considerably lower than what we have in ours. I’d much rather be sorting out three rotation spots than five. Finally, if you’re going forward with that lower level of uncertainty in the rotation, the demands on the farm system are lessened dramatically. Maybe the Tigs have fewer legitimate pitching prospects than we have, but to an extent they can also get by with less because of what they already have in place.

As for the White Sox, sure Danks is great, but Floyd is quite overrated.

Overrated by whom? All I know is this: If you plunked Floyd in our rotation today, with his 6.74 career K/9, 2.02 career K/BB, and track record of durability, and he’d already be the best pitcher by a mile and he’d be the one I felt best about going forward.

Plus, you don’t see Huff improving his K/BB? How can you say nothing he has done in his past leads you to believe he’ll perform much differently there going forward? Just completely unfair.

Nope, and I don’t know what to say other than I think Huff is just one of those guys who can put up respectable K numbers in the minor leagues but will struggle to do so against big league hitters. Look, I’m bearish on Huff and I’ve made no secret of that. He’s 26 and in 160 IP at the major league level, he’s yet to do anything to prove me wrong, and until he does I’m going to continue shorting him.

Sure, but we have enough upper level talent to get the team by for now while we wait for the Kinston studs to arrive.

See man, I can’t swallow this logic. I don’t know how many years I’ve been hearing about the “studs” in Kinston, Akron, etc. I remember just a few years ago being blown away by the talent in that same Kinston rotation—Rondon, Gomez, De La Cruz, etc. were just slaying opposing lineups. Two years later, De La Cruz is still in Kinston working his way back from elbow problems, Gomez is looking like a fringe ML starter, and Rondon is getting his ass handed to him in AAA. The level of uncertainty with these prospects is greater than anybody wants to admit, because it’s so fun to project. The truth is, if we get 2 viable ML starters—not all-stars even, just solid #2/#3 types—out of the current Kinston crop, then I would consider it a great success for our player development. However, this is why I feel like we’re going to be playing catch-up for perhaps the next half-decade—our rivals already have guys like that in place, and we really don’t. The value of the proverbial bird in hand over two in the bush is, I fear, being understated.

I guess the crux of it is this: From what I’ve observed, there are really only a few teams out there (actually, it’s probably more like a few individuals working for a few teams) who are actually really, consistently good at picking and developing pitching talent. The Indians are not one of these organizations who can “beat the market.” They are, like the vast majority of MLB teams, consigned to a pretty low success rate on developing pitching prospects. The problem is that we’re already operating at a deficit—I think even those who are high on Huff, Masterson, etc. will acknowledge that our Westbrook-less rotation is behind those of the Tigers, Twins, and White Sox. It’s going to take some exceptional skill and luck to maneuver us back to a place where we are outperforming (or even on par with) with our rivals (talking about just this one area—pitching—of course, not the team’s success as a whole). But I won’t deny that putting a lot of talent in the pipeline is a good start.

Oh, and sorry for all the finance metaphors. I just started reading “The Big Short” and I think it’s seeped into my brain.

Would he persist in throwing the new pitch even though it keeps getting knocked into the seats? I’d think he’d start disobeying the coaches and go back to his strength. Otherwise, he’d be worried he wouldn’t make it to the bigs if he kept throwing the new pitch.