Draft Thread
Who should we take at #5?
almost 2 years ago
mcrose
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Draft kicks off next monday evening, I believe. mlb.com has us taking Yasmani Grandal, Miami catcher.
Other mock drafts to date have us picking Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, Michael Choice and Zack Cox. The three top picks are universally (at this point) Harper, Taillon and Machado. Pretend they’re gone. I’d hate all the bs associated with Harper anyhow.
I really hope we don’t take Grandal. My vote would be Pomeranz or Choice. Both have the upside to really make a difference on this team, whereas I don’t see that for Grandal, and don’t even think he’s the best available.
Thoughts on the first round and beyond?
Yeah, Grant seems to have a better eye for ML projectability than Mirabelli. Still, while I wouldn’t be disappointed with Pomeranz, I’m leaning towards Michael Choice, a true powr hitting athletic OF who has the added bonus of being a year younger than most of his draft cohort, much like White was last year.
The draft pick has nothing to do with “this team.”
The knock on Choice is that he’s put up most of his numbers in a weak conference against weak competition, and he’s struggled against good pitching when his team faces an out-of-conference opponent or a good pitcher in his conference. On top of that, he strikes out a ton for a superior college bat, let alone one playing more often than not against useless pitching.
The scouting reports on him, as opposed to stat-watching, are very good. He’s fast enuf to stick in CF, good arm, and bat speed/pure power at the high end of the scout’s rating system. I know about the K’s, but he also takes bases on balls at a high rate.
And he’s young. As in correctable and still developing.
Frankly, other than Taillon falling to us, I’m not that blown away by our choices at #5. I don’t think we’ll get a pitcher like White last year at 15. There is RH pitching depth in the draft, and I’d be willing to take a little gamble on somebody like Choice who clearly addresses an org need, and then proceed to look for pitchers in the next couple rounds.
Actually, most scouting reports say he’ll likely move to a corner. His athleticism and speed have ranged from below-average to above-average, so the scouts are torn on this.
I think we need to look at him as a corner outfielder with possibly solid to above-average defense, a ton of power, good eye at the plate in terms of drawing walks but will also strike out a lot. Personally, I’d label him as a Josh Willingham with more power and athleticism.
I haven’t read anything that pegs his speed as anything but above avg at this point. As far as I know the only knock defensively is he’s not as polished as a true CF in terms of routes and getting to the ball. In terms of potential as a major league OF, he profiles better than anyone we’ve drafted in a while.
Here’s his 2010 stats and roster page:
Pg Crosschecker for one seems to think his speed is below-average. Either way, I haven’t seen a single scouting report saying he’ll stick in CF as a pro due to a lack of range. Pg Crosschecker, Mayo, Pnr Scouting, Law, Andy Seiler, and probably BA as well (I don’t have a subscription) think he’ll have to move to a corner, with the most positive seeing him as an above-average defender in RF.
I have never heard that he had below average speed or athleticism…maybe for a true Centerfielder…but for a corner guy where he is projected he has at least above average athleticism from what I have heard. For an overall player, he has good athleticism, but for an outfielder it may be average or just a bit above.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
I don’t know if it was Grant, Mirabelli, or someone else on Indians’ Minor League Magazine recently, but that person said that this year’s draft from #4 (I think) down to the end of the first round is almost comparable to each other. Outside of the top 3, the rest are sort of a mish-mash of players who have some talent, but no one who really stands out (at least without doing effective scouting and having some luck on your side to cultivate that talent – let’s hope the Indians have both the scouting and the luck to make it happen).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
The scouting reports on him, as opposed to stat-watching, are very good. He’s fast enuf to stick in CF, good arm, and bat speed/pure power at the high end of the scout’s rating system. I know about the K’s, but he also takes bases on balls at a high rate.
Sounds like Brad Snyder.
by ken from alexandria on Jun 3, 2010 7:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Hard not to make the comp, but simply seeing a photo of each is enuf to dispell the notion – very different body types.
Of course, our history of drafting outfielders since Manny and Joey Belle is pretty bad – not many positive associations for projections.
BA ( I broke down and got the online subscription).
“Choice has 6.6-second speed in the 60-yard dash, so some scouts believe he may be able to stay in center field.”
Has the speed, still needs to improve overall defense. I’d be perfectly happy if his bat proves out and he ends up in LF. We’d be drafting him for his future power potential, not for Guti-like CF defense. If he can play there its a bonus, not a requirement.
Okay, didn’t know about BA’s description of his defense.
It’s strange that he has had so many conflicting reviews about his athleticism, speed and throwing arm. The point everybody agrees on though is his power potential and plate discipline (though some say he was pitched around a lot and that we need to take his walks with a grain of salt).
For some reason I hope we pick him over the 2 lefties, even though I can’t really back that up and might be focused on need too much.
from what I have heard, it seems like his ceiling may be just an average fielder in Center but he may eventually be able to play it. A comparison I heard is vernon wells, though wells has more physical tools in terms of fielding and athleticism.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Speaking of unfavorable downside comparisons, does anyone else think of Sowers (and just about every other lefty pitching prospect we’ve had for the past decade besides CC) when they read that Sale has great control, “poise,” and a fastball that sits 90-92 most of the time?
I’m worried about Choice as well, but I just have an awful feeling about Sale.
by J83 on Jun 3, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure Sowers ever had a fastball that sits over 90 – but the main diff to me is that Sale is 6 foot 6 inches tall and just doesn’t look like your typical soft tossin’ lefty. It also helps that he has a true changeup that separates from his fastball, which Sowers never had either.
I’d prefer Pomeranz tho – stronger build with a more conventional delivery. Has had some control probs, but hard to argue with 11.8 k’s per 9 over close to 300 SEC innings.
I agree, I’d rather see them draft Pomeranz if they go that route.
As far as Sale’s height, though, it’s not as if Tallet or Huff throw harder necessarily because they’re taller than Sowers. Velocity isn’t everything, but as JP notes below, there are questions about his curve, too.
If we draft Sale I hope I’m wrong, but it just seems like he’s one of those guys who might have the craftiness to get out college guys, and maybe even minor league guys through AA but not the stuff to get it done in the bigs.
by J83 on Jun 3, 2010 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Sowers reportedly had a fastball from 89-93 when he was drafted out of Vanderbilt, being classified as a “low-90s” guy, so his fastball had a little more velocity at one time, though never 95 or mid-90s.
As you said, Sowers never had that plus or even above-average breaking pitch; if Sale does have that above-average or plus changeup, that would be a substantial difference, and presumably, advantage over Sowers if the Indians choose Sale.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Sale also tops out 95, which I don’t think Sowers ever did.
What scares me the most about Sale is the delivery (though he’s been very durable so far) and the inconsistency of his breaking ball. Other than that, I think he’s fine pitching prospect with the ceiling of a #2 starter.
Yeah, the motion is a little scary, and frankly watching video of him I think reliever more than starter.
He was the #1 prospect in the Cape Cod league last summer, against elite competition, fwiw.
That’s what I think as well. His sidearm delivery just reminds me too much of Masterson, though it’s also a bit similar to Randy Johnson’s … but I guess he had a slightly better breaking ball and velocity ….
One thing I’d like to say though is that I’m tired of all these armchair pitching coaches on message boards making all sorts of claims about pitching mechanics. If history has taught is one thing it’s that you can be sure a pitcher gets injured somewhere down the road, but his motion/delivery isn’t always the cause of that and it’s not an exact science anyway. Sometimes I’m guilty of this too (see below), however, I’ve seen people say the most ridiculous stuff over the last few weeks and I just had to vent.
Carry on.
I agree on the injury projection. You can’t. There’s too much non-visible biomechanics going on. Pryor had the perfect delivery, Lincecum was an injury waiting to happen.
But my first association after watching Sale was reliever, for whatever reason. I guess just watching enuf players over the years, its a reflexive thing. A lefty coming across the body like that, you don’t see too many starters with that motion.
If the MLB FanHouse links (right-side of your screen about halfway down the page) are accurate, you may not have to worry about Grandal, as one link is reporting that the Royals and Grandal have a pre-draft agreement in place – time will only tell, of course.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
quick scouting reports:
Pomeranz: LHP, 6’5’’ 235, low 90’s fastball, plus knuckle curve, average to below-average changeup, shaky command, especially later in the season, faced top competition.
Sale: LHP, 6’6’’ 175, low 90’s fastball with very good movement, plus changeup, inconsistent slider/slurve, plus command, unorthodox low 3/4 delivery, played in a non-elite conference (Atlantic Sun Conference)
Choice: OF, 6’1’’ 210, plus power, above-average eye at the plate, had great success with Team USA, varying reports on athleticism and defense, also played for smaller school (UT Arlington — same school as Hunter Pence).
Goldstein said that a rumor connecting the Indians to RHP/3B Stetson Allie is picking up steam. He’s from Ohio and possesses a upper 90’s fastball and at times plus slider. He’s shown a good feel for pitching late in the season, but some still see him as a reliever down the road. Given that he’s a HS arm he fits the classic high risk/high reward profile. His bonus demands are supposedly pretty high as well.
This just confirms more of what I have thought about Pomeranz. He has a good mound presence but isn’t anything special. Better fastball than Laffey or sowers but nothing special and it never seemed to have much movement. Was never impressed with his change or his command. His curve did look decent. I would be surprised if he was ever a #1 starter. His ceiling is a #2 at best, or a #3 for a good pitching team (like a philadelphia, Tampa bay, etc..)
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Pomeranz is playing in Charlottesville this weekend. Thinking about heading over there, but not sure what ticket availability is like. Single game tickets go on sale today.
Given the trend towards acquiring large-bodied pitchers, I would not be surprised to see us go with Pomeranz. That said, of all the professional sports drafts, I find the predicting who will be picked when type of discussion for the MLB draft to be beyond ridiculous. The Indians made 50 draft selections last year. I’ll settle for dissecting the results afterwards.
I would say that Allie would be a distinct possibility (reminds me of RHP Austin Adams from the 2009 Draft in that he was a pretty solid SS, but was selected as a RHP, though he was a college draftee, not a HS draftee), but two things would make me pause about saying he’d be the choice:
1. He’s a HS draftee – the Indians haven’t selected one in the first round since that disastrous 2001 Draft (Denham, Dittler, Martin, Conroy, etc.); it’s likely the Indians will pick a HSer in the 1st round again someday, but whether 2010 is that year, I’m not sure.
2. He has high bonus demands; the Indians are willing to pay higher than slot, but mostly with guys who fall into lower rounds due to their bonus demands or uncertainty of whether to go to college or their pros.
Therefore, while I think Allie would be an intriguing pick, I don’t know if the Indians will be willing to “bite” on him for the 2 reasons mentioned above. It should be interesting to see come Monday – perhaps you could label Allie a “dark horse.”
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
1. The Indians have, however, drafted a lot of high school players at the end of the first round with supplemental picks. Micah Schilling, Matt Whitney, Adam Miller, John Drennen. (Gee, I wonder why we’re not doing that much anymore.)
2. I think the Indians generally are not too worried about slot. What they aren’t willing to do is pay more than their internal valuation of any given player. I’m sure that often means they wouldn’t pay over-slot, but no doubt it sometimes means that they would. Obviously, for a lower-round flier, they would always do it.
by Jay on Jun 5, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Good point about the supplemental picks; I was referring to just the original 1st round picks, but since the supplemental picks are technically 1st rounders (I think), that would skew the numbers more toward actually picking more HSers in the first round than I originally thought.
Regarding the Indians’ poor production of supplemental picks, perhaps Grant and company will include more HS players in those picks when we have them in the future; all of those picks were under Mirabelli and company, and it’s becoming more apparent that Mirabelli and company weren’t as astute at picking talent that could be developed into viable and productive MLers for the most part. There was some bad luck included as well, as Miller had a very good chance of being an impact player at the ML level, and Whitney may have turned out better if not for that broken leg (though perhaps not as good as initially hoped, but that lost year of development and another 1-2 years of trying to find himself certainly didn’t help his development), but Schilling was an obvious miss, and Drennen might be a role player at best, and only if he maintains the bit of momentum he has now (he’s not playing stellar at Akron, but is finally showing some signs of life after not doing so for 1.5-2 years). In Mirabelli and company’s defense, the Indians were not the only ones who thought that Drennen would be a very solid player – I know the Padres and others also thought highly of him; whether he would have turned out better in their systems, we’ll never know, but like it turns out for many prospects, they are often rated more highly than they actually turn out.
2. I agree, which is why I think that Allie is probably not likely to be picked, certainly not in the 1st round – if he has high bonus demands, the Indians would have to REALLY like him to pick him at #5; a 1st-round supplemental pick would be a possibility, but I don’t think we have a supplemental pick, correct?
I still see the Indians paying more for some late-round fliers who may have “dropped” for signability reasons, etc.
Additionally, being that this draft is reportedly strong in HS RHP depth, I think the Indians may pick more HSers earlier in the draft this year; the last few years, if I remember correctly, we’ve focused more on college players earlier in the draft, followed by some HSers in the double-digit rounds. I think we could see a few more HS players in the earlier rounds, especially RHP. That doesn’t mean there still won’t be some college players mixed in, but I think we didn’t pick a HS pick until like the 11th round or thereabouts in the 2009 Draft; I’ll be a little surprised if that happens again in this draft.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Garry Templeton is managing that team? He was managing Erie about six years ago. Not often you can say leaving Erie is a poor career move.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jun 5, 2010 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions
with a 4.03 ERA, giving up seven runs in 10 2/3 innings.
That is impressive, in a way.
by Jay on Jun 5, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe. I hadn’t considered unearned runs, I just assumed one stat or the other was misreported.
by Jay on Jun 5, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I bet a side-arming knuckleballer gets a lot of passed balls. I doubt the quality of catcher is high.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jun 6, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
there’s always a chance, but it’s highly unlikely. Seems like the Pirates might take him, as that is the latest buzz.
Yeah, after watching video on him I am hoping there is some glimmer he falls to us. Either way I’d be happy with either Sale or Pomeranz.
What’s the difference between a pitcher like Pomeranz and Huff/Sowers. They both seem like low velocity lefties.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jun 6, 2010 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Bigger and stronger’s the main thing. Better fastball as a basic benchmark, never heard “soft tossing” associated with him. Or Sale for that matter.
Why are strength and size relevant? I thought velocity and movement were the most relevant factor
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jun 6, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Then how can a pitcher be considered a power pitcher if he sits in the low 90’s?
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jun 7, 2010 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Keith Law was comparing Pomeranz to Andrew Miller, the Marlins prospect who had some injury trouble I believe.
BA’s final mock draft has them taking Choice. Very little has come out regarding who the Tribe has been linked to, altho Chris Sale seems to top that list.
Sale, Pomeranz, Choice and Cox in that order is my best take on their draft preference. First round pick tonite at 7, rapid fire rounds from 2 on start tomorrow.
I’ll be surprised if it’s Sale. Law might be nuts, but whatever it is that has him putting a player outside of the Top 40, it has to be enough to make the Indians favor someone else at #5. I’d be less surprised if it was Whitson than Sale.
Frame (which could fill out) and delivery are the two knocks I’ve read on Chris Sale. I’ve narrowed down my preferences to him or Pomeranz, and I’ve got to admit I’m having a tough time deciding just based on the subjective analysis of other people. Every time I read an article on Pomeranz I think, “That’s our guy.” Then I read something on Sale and think the same thing.
So if my indecision is between Pomeranz and Sale, I assume the Indians are taking Choice.
It would be pretty cool to see a knuckle curve as a true swing-and-miss pitch.
Steel Nick
I keep wondering what the odds are that Machado or Taillon will fall to us. They’ve been rated 2-3 in the draft for a while, but it wouldn’t be a huge shocker to see Sale or Pomeranz benefit from the relative safety of being a college pitcher and jump up a spot or two.
There’s now a rumor that the Indians have topped KC’s offer to Grandal (which would be atleast $3M).
I really hope we don’t go with Yasmani Grandal. He did put up great numbers this year and is a solid bet to stick behind the plate, but there have been a few questions about how good his bat really is.
The rumors appears to be BS, either unsourced or FUD from his agent.
It makes no difference which team makes the top offer to Gandal. Only one team will have the right to sign with him. It’s a confusing rumor all around.
by Jay on Jun 7, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
BA’s final mock draft had Grandal falling all the way to #25, to the Cardinals. That would imply to me that he too is falling down the boards to some extent (falling from Top 5 to #25 – there must be some knocks on him that are coming out at the last minute).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Possibly the knocks are his agent’s bonus posturing.
by Jay on Jun 7, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Why does no one else want Zach Cox? Has to be signing issues or something. He’s my first choice.
Case of the beet bandit. Missing beets from all over the farm, no footprints. Inside job. Mose in socks. Boom. Case closed. -Dwight Schrute
Keep in mind that you might select a guy like that in the third round even if you wouldn’t in the first round.
by Jay on Jun 7, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
For the record, I didn’t realize that Allie was from Cleveland’s St. Ed’s HS – while the Indians have been known to pick some local talent, I’ll still be surprised if he was our first pick. If he was still available when we picked in the 2nd round, I could see us possibly taking him there, and I still think that we will take some HSers, probably RHP like Allie is, earlier than the past year or two, but I’ll be a little surprised if it is Allie.
Just as I finished writing that – talonk mentioned we picked Pomerantz at #5 – let’s hope he turns out well for us!
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Reading more about Allie, I see he finally found some command his senior year, but some have doubts whether he can sustain that command as he faces much better competition. Additionally, some see him as being a reliever down the road (a reliever who could hit triple digits on more than one occasion, mind you).
I don’t know if I’d take Allie with our 2nd round pick after reading more about him – I’d be more comfortable taking him somewhere between Rounds 5-10, though I’m not sure if he’ll remain around that long. He is available after Round 1, as he was not selected.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Of course he won’t stick around that long. It’s a surprise he’s fallen this far.
If you think the average second-round pick does better than making the majors as a reliever, then you really don’t know much about the draft. Based on what you wrote about Allie, I’m sure we’d be happy to draft him at #55.
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