Transactions: Branyan Traded
by Ryan on Jun 27, 2010 9:30 AM EDT
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Traded 1B Russell Branyan and Cash (or PTBNL) to the Seattle Mariners for OF Ezequiel Carrera (AAA) and SS Juan Diaz (A+)
Recalled 1B/OF Matt LaPorta from Columbus (AAA)
If the Indians don't want to pay the rest of Branyan's 2010 salary, they have to send the Mariners a minor-league player.
With Matt LaPorta hitting .362/.457/.638 in Columbus and needing a regular spot in the Cleveland lineup, it was time to move Branyan. The Indians probably could have got a better deal (and gotten someone to eat the rest of the contract) had they waited until the middle of July, when there would have been more competition for Branyan's services, but since this season is more about 2011 than 2010, they took a lesser return for three more weeks' worth of LaPorta at-bats.
Even if the Indians have to subsidize the remainder of Branyan's contract, this was an excellent signing. Branyan gave the Indians exactly what they needed: 10 home runs and a .491 slugging percentage in 190 plate appearances for a lineup that desperately needed power. He was a liability at first base, but his bat made up for it.
Matt LaPorta is going to get Branyan's at-bats, probably starting with today's game. Because of injury, the Indians weren't able to get Matt on the field regularly at the beginning of the season, but they have to commit to him now. He's 25 years old, obviously with nothing to prove in the minors, and the Indians need to figure out who their corner players of the future are. I would suspect that Austin Kearns will get moved soon as well in order to make room for Michael Brantley. I would also assume that they'd like to give Jordan Brown and Shelley Duncan some at-bats in left and first to see if either of those guys has a future as a reserve player.
The Indians got two prospects for Branyan, one almost ready to help at the major-league level, the other with more upside but a couple years away.
OF Ezequiel Carrera (23 Years Old)
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2005 18 Mets VESL FRk NYM 45 173 150 19 34 3 2 0 8 7 8 15 47 .227 .308 .273 .581 41 3 3 4 1 0 2006 19 Mets VESL FRk NYM 57 247 216 41 65 4 5 1 19 22 11 16 28 .301 .365 .380 .745 82 3 7 6 2 0 2007 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs Rk-A- NYM 65 286 249 52 82 10 3 1 32 22 6 30 42 .329 .408 .406 .813 101 0 3 4 0 0 2007 20 Mets GULF Rk NYM 45 209 179 41 61 8 3 1 26 16 5 26 29 .341 .430 .436 .866 78 0 2 2 0 0 2007 20 Brooklyn NYPL A- NYM 20 77 70 11 21 2 0 0 6 6 1 4 13 .300 .347 .329 .675 23 0 1 2 0 0 2008 21 St.Lucie FLOR A+ NYM 114 494 430 61 113 11 12 7 29 28 9 46 86 .263 .344 .393 .737 169 6 9 6 3 1 2009 22 WestTenn SOUL AA SEA 91 405 329 68 111 12 4 2 38 27 13 59 62 .337 .441 .416 .857 137 4 4 10 3 1 2010 23 Tacoma PCL AAA SEA 64 243 213 24 57 6 2 0 18 9 5 20 32 .268 .339 .315 .654 67 2 3 7 0 0 6 Seasons 436 1848 1587 265 462 46 28 11 144 115 52 186 297 .291 .374 .376 .750 597 18 29 37 9 2 FRk (2 seasons) 102 420 366 60 99 7 7 1 27 29 19 31 75 .270 .341 .336 .678 123 6 10 10 3 0 AA (1 season) 91 405 329 68 111 12 4 2 38 27 13 59 62 .337 .441 .416 .857 137 4 4 10 3 1 Rk (1 season) 45 209 179 41 61 8 3 1 26 16 5 26 29 .341 .430 .436 .866 78 0 2 2 0 0 A- (1 season) 20 77 70 11 21 2 0 0 6 6 1 4 13 .300 .347 .329 .675 23 0 1 2 0 0 AAA (1 season) 64 243 213 24 57 6 2 0 18 9 5 20 32 .268 .339 .315 .654 67 2 3 7 0 0 A+ (1 season) 114 494 430 61 113 11 12 7 29 28 9 46 86 .263 .344 .393 .737 169 6 9 6 3 1
Provided by "Baseball-Reference.com":http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml: "View Original Table":http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=carrer001eze#standard_batting Generated 6/27/2010.
Carrera has the upside of a fourth outfielder. He has a good eye at the plate, has good speed, decent to good range in center field, and that's about it. With Grady Sizemore out until the first half of the 2011 season, though, he'll have a shot of supplanting Trevor Crowe as the interim center fielder, and later as a reserve outfielder. He's currently on the DL with a hip injury. He's pretty short (5'10") for an outfielder.
The Mariners acuired Carrera from the Mets in the same 2008 three-team deal that brought the Indians Joe Smith and Luis Valbuena.
SS Juan Diaz (21 Years Old)
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2006 17 Mariners DOSL FRk SEA 58 218 178 23 34 8 4 0 23 4 5 30 46 .191 .324 .281 .605 50 5 6 2 2 0
2007 18 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-A+ SEA 81 309 279 23 62 12 1 1 20 2 10 21 61 .222 .284 .283 .567 79 8 3 6 0 0
2007 18 Wisconsin MIDW A SEA 75 287 259 22 59 12 0 1 18 2 10 19 53 .228 .288 .286 .574 74 7 3 6 0 0
2007 18 HighDesert CALL A+ SEA 6 22 20 1 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 2 8 .150 .227 .250 .477 5 1 0 0 0 0
2008 19 Wisconsin MIDW A SEA 122 497 451 38 105 16 4 3 45 6 5 28 86 .233 .275 .306 .581 138 8 1 9 8 1
2009 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-Rk SEA 85 355 328 58 104 22 5 5 30 5 2 24 65 .317 .364 .460 .824 151 3 0 3 0 0
2009 20 Mariners ARIZ Rk SEA 1 4 3 3 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 6 0 0 0 0 0
2009 20 HighDesert CALL A+ SEA 84 351 325 55 101 22 5 4 29 5 2 23 65 .311 .356 .446 .802 145 3 0 3 0 0
2010 21 HighDesert CALL A+ SEA 70 276 254 39 75 8 3 7 41 8 2 19 45 .295 .345 .433 .779 110 3 1 1 1 0
5 Seasons 416 1655 1490 181 380 66 17 16 159 25 24 122 303 .255 .314 .354 .668 528 27 11 21 11 1
A+ (3 seasons) 160 649 599 95 179 30 9 11 72 13 4 44 118 .299 .347 .434 .781 260 7 1 4 1 0
A (2 seasons) 197 784 710 60 164 28 4 4 63 8 15 47 139 .231 .280 .299 .578 212 15 4 15 8 1
FRk (1 season) 58 218 178 23 34 8 4 0 23 4 5 30 46 .191 .324 .281 .605 50 5 6 2 2 0
Rk (1 season) 1 4 3 3 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 6 0 0 0 0 0
Provided by "Baseball-Reference.com":http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml: "View Original Table":http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=diaz--004jua#standard_batting Generated 6/27/2010.
Diaz has better upside. He could be a major-league starting shortstop, as he has the glove for the position. He's having a good offensive year, but it's in the offense-friendly California League.
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It seems as if Diaz immediately becomes out best defensive SS in the system. Carrera seems like a younger version of Constanza.
Or a slightly older Jordan Henry. Hope this doesn’t mean less tim in CF for Brantley.
by dgcambridge on Jun 27, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Why are you concerned about less time for Brantley in CF? he’s likely not as good a defensive CF than Carrera, and will probably never be.
Don’t you think Brantley, with his frame and net, is likely to be the better hitter? (Or have some chance at being a major league everyday hitter?) I’d put my chips there and see if he can develop into a good CF. I’ll guess that they split CF in Columbus somewhat, but Brantley will be up in the next month anyway.
I know I have asked this frequently, but can someone point me to somewhere that gives me good evidence that Brantley is mediocre defensively? I am curious, not trying to say it isn’t true.
honestly its not really clear from the stats (total zone runs rating, TZR/150) other than he was was good in the Milwaukee system at AA but he has been bad in the Cleveland system at AAA so statistically speaking not too clear.
I have seen mixed scouting reports (Law said before the season he would be our best defensive centerfielder, BA I believe thinks he is a leftfielder.) The numbers are mixed, but most here seem to write him off as a defensively above average centerfielder. I am just uncertain at this point, and we haven’t really seen him out there in CF for the Indians yet.
USS Mariner rundown on the two guys:
Carrera led the Southern League in BA and OBP last year, but some scouts questioned whether he’d ever be more than a 4th OF in the majors. A brilliant spring capped by a homer off of Felix in an intra-squad game led many to believe that the scouts were wrong. However, from April on, Carrera’s played like a dictionary definition of a 4th OF – a poor man’s Endy Chavez – and picked up a few injuries on the way. He’d been on the Rainiers’ 7-day DL, but it obviously wasn’t serious enough to delay this move.
Juan Diaz was a moderately promising SS in a system without many middle infield ’spects. Until this year, when Nick Franklin made him 100% expendable. Diaz hit the Cal League last year with the reputation of a glove-first guy, but put up a .346 despite never coming close to .300 previously. He wasn’t able to force his way to AA this year (a guy named Triunfel mans SS for West Tennessee), and he’s regressed a bit at High Desert thanks to his BABIP coming back to earth. .
All in all, it’s tough to be upset about what we’re sending to Cleveland. I’d been excited to see Carrera in Tacoma, but he quickly showed that he was a fairly limited slap hitter (I’m still trying to envision him hitting a homer off of Felix and I can’t quite do it). And if anyone thought Diaz’s offensive outbreak was ‘real’ in 2009, 2010 is getting really hard to explain.
In other news, the Indians once again begin the most important part of their season
by APV on Jun 27, 2010 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Or does SEA think it’s contending again?
by JulioBernazard on Jun 27, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Wait, what?
He’s currently on the DL with a hip injury.
I read right over that the first time. Hilarious.
It is amazing the scrap of infielders we have on our 40-man roster right now. Cabrera (60-day DL), Donald, Hernandez, Hodges, LaPorta, Marte, Nix, Peralta, Rivero, Valbueno.
Is “scrap” the right group term for infielders? Sounds right to me. I’d guess that only one of Hernandez/Nix will survive (I’m strongly in the Nix camp), and Hodges is a dead man walking.
by dgcambridge on Jun 27, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Ya know what? I would love to see Branyan end up somewhere where he gets a ring. He is what he is, he knows it, plays the game to the best of his abilities (and he does contribute). I was a fan of his signing, and he did help this team.
by kennesawmountainwahoo on Jun 27, 2010 10:52 AM EDT reply actions
I actually think we’re doing the right things. Cleveland sports in general have left me grouchy lately.
by kennesawmountainwahoo on Jun 27, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
∞
"Facebook is bad news. It and Jason Donald both crush dreams." - JRontherim
by woodsmeister on Jun 27, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hoynes and Castro tweetify: Mariners will pay the ~$750K remaining on his contract this season, Indians will pay for the ~$500K buyout of his option next year.
Steel Nick
The more I think about it the more, like others, I think it didn’t matter who we were getting back. It’s just to clear room for LaPorta and not get hosed on the return. And I don’t see the Mariners losing out here, either.
Steel Nick
I really don’t think that’s true. These two guys will have trouble crashing our Top 15 prospects, but that’s mostly because that list is so crowded with talent. They are both real prospects, even if not elite ones.
I think Shaprio trips into real prospects during trades, but I think the aim of this trade was to clear some room at first base. This isn’t to say neither player will be something.
Steel Nick
I actually disagree. I think it was a real moment of opportunism. These prospects may not be great, but I honestly think they’re more than he expected to get … and that’s when you say “yes” to an early deal.
This time of year thou mayst sing elegies:
When fulsome leaves and rip’ning fruit doth shine
From boughs that softly shake in summer’s breeze.
Let’s shake the trees at this year’s trade deadline.
First falls the rusty-red seedless Branyan,
Whose trav’ler’s compass once again points west.
We’ll send him on a trail mark’d by fanion
With wampum sewed up in his patchwork vest.
In this first exchange of old for callow,
It could be said that power somewhat ebbs,
Replaced with speed to fill fields left fallow;
Replacing potent bats with agile webs.
Sand through hourglass is ceaseless flowing;
Groucho sang: Hello, I must be going.
by YoDaddyWags on Jun 27, 2010 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
O SHELDON! my Sheldon! our fearful trip is done;
The ship has founder’d on every rock, the prize we sought is done;
The port is near, the bells I hear, the people expectorating,
While follow eyes the broken keel, the vessel grim and reeling:
But O heart! heart! heart!
O the bleeding drops of ink,
Where on the deck my Sheldon lies,
Fallen, cold, unread.
by YoDaddyWags on Jun 27, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Sigh
It’s time to start looking at prospects again and trying to get excited about who the Indians trade for.
When will this team contend again?
True
I think it’s the high expectations after 2007 and the total sucking of 2008 and 2009. It wasn’t just not contending, it was being out of any sort of playoff race by the end of May in both years.
The Indians probably could have got a better deal (and gotten someone to eat the rest of the contract) had they waited until the middle of July, when there would have been more competition for Branyan’s services,
Even for a pro forma statement, this is really stupid.
You understand that the word “probably” makes two assumptions, right? First, that Branyan doesn’t get hurt. Second, that he continues to play at his current level, and doesn’t tail off even further.
(He’s not playing “well”— he has a .328 OB% with no defensive or baserunning value For an offense that needs to move the chains, a player who delivers home runs and strikeouts is a negative.)
As it happens, I had a letter today in Sheldon Ocker’s column, making the same point. The Indians had a brief window to move Kerry Wood. They balked because they thought they could win. He got injured and now he can’t pitch. Wood is now untradeable. (And, in the weeks between the time I sent it and he ran it, Kearns has slumped to the point where he no longer looks like a comeback player— just a guy from Cleveland who had a hot April.)
More importantly, after a certain point, playing in AAA damages a prospect. It’s both (a) learning bad habits against and (b) feeling that you’re stuck in a dead-end job with no way out
Trader Mark has never understood that he isn’t playing APBA— that the values on the “Matt LaPorta” card he got from Milwaukee can and will change, based on how it is handled. He thinks he can lay down that card at any time, and still get the same results. Doesn’t work that way. Making a player wait a year or two— or a few months— while you play Garkos and Shoppachs and Branyans— is destructive. Like a lot of bad executives, Shapiro doesn’t understand that time is a resource
The difference between what they got now and what they might get (which is a hypothetical assumption) is not worth the damage you do to LaPorta by keeping him down after you said “Go down to AAA and have fun and get your swing back. We’ll get you back up here once you recover.”
I must admit he does have an enviable ability to commit minor swindles. Getting a fifth outfielder and a utility infielder (they won’t hit well enough to be anything more) for landfill is pretty remarkable.
I agree that they might not have gotten a better return on Branyan had they waited. I’m not anticipating much in the way of returns from the few players eligible for trading this season. I’d be pleased if we can find another team to swap redundant prospects with to augment our all-around portfolio.
I think Shapiro / Anotentti understand the time-value components of his assets very well:
Traded Blake at his peak. Timed it perfectly.
Traded Eduardo Perez at his peak.
Traded Broussard at his peak.
If anything, they traded Victor and Cliff Lee earlier than he had to, but dodged the risk of depreciation.
So you’re criticizing Ryan and Shapiro for making the moves you wanted them to take?
Sounds like misplaced Anti-Shapiroism
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jun 27, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Kerry Wood is still tradeable—especially if the Tribe eats some salary. He is throwing 95. Once he gets command of his curveball, he’ll be good. He’s not going to continue giving up a homer every five innings.
Despite the back issues that put him on the DL to start the season and may have impinged upon his performance of late, Branyan has done exactly what he’s always done, to wit: 2010, 263/328/491/819; career, 236/331/491/822. In June, instead of “falling off even further,” in your misleading locution, he’s improved those numbers: 289/349/500/849.
It’s not unreasonable to expect you could get another month of production out of him in hopes of improving the possible return, as Ryan writes and which you unnecessarily term “really stupid,” with little evidence presented beyond mere assertion. It’s also not unreasonable to conclude that the risk of injury makes a deal now attractive.
I’ll leave the psychological assessments of players and management to the professionals.
A few salient points.
Even for a pro forma statement, this is really stupid.
First, you have no business coming in here and talking disrespectfully. You’re a guest here, and to put it mildly, you’re not exactly among your lessers when you post at LGT. Some manners are in order.
You understand that the word "probably" makes two assumptions, right? First, that Branyan doesn’t get hurt. Second, that he continues to play at his current level, and doesn’t tail off even further.
“Condescending” and “wrong” do not make a tasty cocktail, my friend. Point in fact, the word “probably” does not make either of those assumptions. Rather, it indicates that each of those two propositions has a certain probability, and when multiplied together, the product is something over 50 percent. For example, 70% Branyan stays healthy and 75% his overall production remains steady or improves, the product of which is a 52.5% chance, i.e., “probably.”
As it happens, I disagree with Ryan. I think he may have underestimated the present trade return, and he may have overestimated the demand for a player like Branyan, whose defensive reputation has taken some hits this week and who may not be desirable to any NL team smarter than the Giants.
So I think the chance may be more like 35% rather than 52.5%, but the fact remains, that disagreement doesn’t make Ryan’s position “stupid.” (I think you probably are smart enough to grasp this concept, remembering again that “probably” only means “greater than 50% chance.”)
The Indians had a brief window to move Kerry Wood. They balked because they thought they could win.
Really? When, exactly? I want a date!
Trader Mark has never understood that he isn’t playing APBA
When does Shapiro ever get credit, in your book, for handling a prospect’s development effectively, or even masterfully? The Indians have churned out a ton of young major leaguers during Shapiro’s tenure, but a few months of setbacks has you claiming he’s fundamentally deficient. Do we really have to start listing Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp, Asdrubal Cabrera, Franklin Gutierrez, Carlos Santana … ?
You assume that the successes were automatic, but the failures were the fault of management and not the insufficiency of the player. There is no reason to assume either of those things; it’s just the natural conclusion of lazy thinking.
minor swindles
Yeah, I think your bent is made quite plain right here.
by Jay on Jun 27, 2010 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
You understand that the word "probably" makes two assumptions, right? First, that Branyan doesn’t get hurt. Second, that he continues to play at his current level, and doesn’t tail off even further.
What did you want me to say, they got the absolute best return they could have? Deadlines make buyers spend more than they could have, especially if there’s a rival involved. The Indians didn’t have the leverage here, since they were the ones who wanted to move Branyan ASAP.
Branyan’s career batting line is .236/.331/.491. This season, he’s hitting .263/.328/.491. He’s not having a career season, he’s having a typical season. As for him getting hurt in the next 3-4 weeks, I haven’t seen any evidence of his flaring up, and he’s been playing virtually every day since early May.
If those two things happened, which I think would be a pretty good bet, there would have been a market for Branyan, even if he’s now just a left-handed bat, and possibly a bidding skirmish especially if the Indians would have eaten the rest of the contract. But the Indians wanted to move him now, for development reasons, and that meant fewer teams were interested in making an offer this early in the season.
I’m glad Branyan is gone. The whole TTO thing is annoying. His majestic homeruns came at the wrong time, and he was a marble statue at first base. The two best results from RB’s most recent stint with the Tribe: Ezequiel Carrera and Bruce Drennan.
His HR came, almost always, at great times: #1 put the first 2 runs up, and #2 the last one, in an 8-2 win. #3, the last 2 in a 4-0 win. #4, the last 2 in a 5-1 win, so Wood had a 4-run cushion in the 9th. #5 closed a 4-1 deficit to 4-2, in an 8-2 loss. #6 was the last run in a 13-10 win. #7 tied a game at 1, an eventual 3-2 win. #8 was the last run in a 7-1 win. #9 closed a 5-1 deficit to 5-4, in a 6-4 loss. #10 closed a 2-0 gap to 2-1, the final score.
by YoDaddyWags on Jun 28, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Rec for research.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jun 28, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Let’s see: #1,3,4,7,9,and 10 came at good times. Six out of ten. I was thinking more of his inability to hit with runners on base. Seven of his homers were solo shots. Only three resulted in positive WPA.
No. 5 closed a 3-run gap to 2, meaning you get a man on and the tying run is at the plate. Important. #6 extended a 2-run lead to 3. Against the Jackasses. Meaning they get a guy on and still don’t have the tying run at the plate. Important. 2 homers were late dingers in one-sided wins, none in one-sided losses. If only three resulted in a +WPA, then there’s another reason to question the WPA formulas.
As to solo shots, someone else came up with some numbers. According to a Fangraphs commenter in that thread, from 2006-mid 2009:
Solo — 56.9%
Two run — 29.1%
Three run — 11.3%
Grand slam — 2.6%
Branyan’s 7 solo might have something to do with Cleveland’s team OBA, 9 points below league average. And 2 came when he led off an inning.
Look, this is all SSS. It wouldn’t have surprised me if Branyan’s HRs had all been 8th inning solo shots in 11-3 losses. But you made an assertion worthy of Bruce Drennan, which isn’t supported by investigation. Coupled with the risible claim from Mr. Beckman above that “a player who delivers home runs and strikeouts is a negative,” a defense of Branyan’s legitimate MLB capabilities was in order.
These were those rare events, Cleveland Indian home runs. They made you happy when they were hit, and you should remain happy about them in retrospect.
All that said, I’ve got nothing against the trade.
by YoDaddyWags on Jun 29, 2010 5:21 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
You are quite right about the Drennan comparison, and my lack of investigation. And, of course, Branyan had fewer runners on base than most home run hitters—no fault of his own. I do not wish to defend or in any way justify Beckman’s claim. But I can assert my annoyance over the minor enthusiasms expressed on Russell’s behalf.
I suppose my irritation is an esthetic one. Russell Branyan was the de facto Indians slugger; the Leon Wagner, if you will, of 2010. Beyond his abilities to hit home runs he is an obviously limited player. A real Schlächter at first base, as well.
Yes, Indians home runs are Indians home runs. I would have preferred to see them hit by Valbuena or LaPorta, or even Peralta or Hafner. And I agree with you regarding WPA.
Russell would have been a far better man to have at first base than Broussard or Garko. Aesthetes have cost Branyan an awful lot of money over the years.
by YoDaddyWags on Jun 29, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
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