Lou Marson and Carlos Santana
by MTF on Jun 3, 2010 12:11 PM EDT
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The Twitter feed made an interesting point the other day, and that is that the contrast between Lou Marson's ability to throw out base stealers and Carlos Santana's shortfall in the same area might actually delay Santana's arrival in Cleveland. Shapiro even made specific reference to the issue in his pre-game presser in Detroit before last night's game and, especially given our sputtering offense lately, I can only assume that if the Indians believed Carlos could even be marginal in the majors right now, they'd promote him. So this is obviously a bigger issue than I (and perhaps you too) had realized.
Lou Marson is third in the ML's in CS right now, behind two much older more established catchers (one of whom has played many more games than Marson), so he's obviously been outstanding. Just ask Brett Gardner. Not having seen Santana play I have no idea how deficient he really is and I can't find fielding stats for the international league. My question to those who've seen him play is, how big a deal is this deficiency (if there is one)?
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You don’t want to look just at CS because those will track stolen base attempts more closely than anything else. Jason Kendall, as you point out, leads the ML in CS. But that is because Jason Kendall has a terrible arm and guys run on him all the time (65 attempts so far). Santana’s SB numbers can be found on his B-Ref page. His 19% rate this year is his career worst (his minor league career average is actually pretty good – 27%), and the 36 attempts put him on pace to surpass last season’s 80 attempts against him. People run a lot on Santana which reflects upon his reputation and how other coaches and managers are evaluating his skills. Pitchers are part of this equation too, of course, and those are pretty hard to factor in. The reports I have seen don’t question Santana’s arm strength in any way, only his mechanics and the finer points of handling the position.
You make a good point: everything I’ve read previously says he has outstanding arm strength, so I suppose the concerns must be focused on his release mechanics. Working on this in Cleveland with Sandy Alomar strikes me as not a bad solution, except he’d play less (unless Marson is sent down to play every day in Columbus). Knotty.
by MTF on Jun 3, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
As a reference point the B-Ref page for the IL says that Buffalo is tied for 11th (out of 14 teams) in CS% at 23% (13 CS, 44 SB). League average is 27%. That is low, but it doesn’t seem extreme.
by MTF on Jun 3, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Santana at 3B. Preserve those legs. Marson’s bat could never play at 3B anyway.
by Jay on Jun 4, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
But wouldn’t that make Santana simply a placeholder for The Chiz? (ducks)
"The delusional get what they deserve." - afh4
by woodsmeister on Jun 5, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes. Once Chiz is demolishing AAA bathrooms and Santana is a megastar at 3B, we trade Marson for a good third starter, move Santana back to C, and call it a pennant.
by Jay on Jun 5, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
What is the traditional manner of celebrating Super 2 Day (besides calling up überprospects)?
"The delusional get what they deserve." - afh4
In my opinion, this is the main reason why Santana is not up yet; sure, you want him to continue working on his throwing mechanics and throwing out baserunners, but we don’t know anything about what pitchers are on the mound when these SBs are occurring.
Additionally, if Santana is above-average or excelling at all other parts of the game – hitting, running, calling a good game, blocking balls, etc., it’s not likely the Indians are going to keep him at AAA just to improve his throwing mechanics, as he can continue to work on that up here in a rebuilding season.
No, it’s likely the real reason he’s not up in Cleveland is to avoid the Super-2 status he would be in if he would be called up now. Within the next month, however, he’ll likely be up, even if his throwing mechanics aren’t ironed out entirely at that point.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
It just passed, didn’t it? While perhaps it wouldn’t matter in the long run, if you call up a prospect right after the Super 2 date passes, I wouldn’t think it would look good PR-wise; I’m sure Santana and his agent would raise an eyebrow or two if the Indians brought him up immediately (i.e. the following day) after his Super-2 status expired, even if they know that that was a major reason why Santana had no real shot to make the Opening Day roster and would spend 2+ months at AAA.
As for his not calling a good game, I’ve heard reports that it has improved; the last thing I heard that other IL managers and scouts were saying that Santana needs to work on especially is his framing pitches – it seems that he is not catching the ball in a way where close pitches look like they are strikes when they are just on or off the black.
I don’t remember if I heard that on the Clippers’ last telecast on STO or if I heard that on Minor League Magazine, but I’m pretty sure it was one of those two programs (I’m leaning toward the Clippers’ broadcast if I had to nail it down to one of the two off the top of my head).
If I remember correctly, they mentioned improving his game-calling in general, but most have been saying that for a while, almost like the “default” reason he’s down there, but I’ve also heard the “default” he’s improving, so I don’t know really how far he has to go on his game calling.
I’m sure there are some nuances he still has to become more consistent with, but as mentioned, it wouldn’t look that good from a PR viewpoint if Santana was brought up immediately after his Super-2 status can’t be reached. Therefore, I think both tightening up some skills and giving a little bit of time after his Super-2 status can’t be reached both have played a factor in why Santana is not up here yet, never mind the fact that Santana’s presence alone is not going to turn the Indians into a playoff contender for 2010 (it’s likely he would have been up here already if the Indians were a legitimate playoff contender or just one or two players away from being legitimate playoff contenders for 2010).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
There is no exact Super 2 date, and I don’t think it would raise any eyebrows. The Indians have had a slew of players end up between 105 and 130 days at the end of the year. It’s no big shock, this is the team’s sweet spot.
The agents all know how this works.
The bottom line is that nobody is entitled to a callup, ever. The team does what’s in the team’s own best interest. Everybody understands that.
But isn’t true that GMs don’t usually call it out in public? In general, they cover it over with other explanations.
Our AAA starters aren’t exactly having breakout seasons…
by APV on Jun 8, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
In the SSS that is what I saw of Santana at Akron, it looked like he has a good arm, though his release may be a little slow.
Is this the whale section?
Scouting reports have always praised him for having a strong arm.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 3, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
This is hilarious. Yes, I’m sure the Indians are going to keep Santana down because of his inability to throw out baserunners. Lord knows we wouldn’t want him fouling up our impeccable run prevention.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 3, 2010 8:35 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Maybe we can package Marson with Westbrook or Wood and actually get a better prospect. Although I am not really high on giving Westbrook away anytime soon based on our AAA pitching. I also think Westbrook, Carmona, Talbot, and if 1 pitching prospect works out ( maybe Alex White?) and we have ourselves a pretty good rotation. It is the only real reason I can think to keep Carlos in AAA. I mean when Victor caught it wasnt like he was very good at throwing baserunners out. I really think Marson has a lot of value to a contender as a backup catcher if he keeps throwing out runners like this, but I cant see us keeping him up with Carlos. You would have to assume we will have a Redmond type back up for the next few years.
What do people think about flopping Crowe and Donald in the lineup?
Last note: It would also appear our bullpen could us Masterson… Thoughts?
We don’t control Westbrook’s rights next season, so in all likelihood he’s either going soon or sooner. Trading the Westbrook and Mason battery, or just Westbrook seems to me like it could net us a good prospect at the deadline. Other than Jake, I look around and don’t see much for us to trade.
We’re talking about trading Marson? He hasn’t even turned 24 yet, he’s under team control for 5 more years, and his stock is probably near a low point. This is what young/bad teams do. Give guys like Marson enough ABs in the majors to see if they can be a useful piece.
I’m open to anything that brings in more talent and not fixated on any one of our players, but I do like Lou. Catching is an old man’s position, for sure. Even the best catching prospects from Weiters to Flowers to Saltalamacchia [sic?] to Josh Paul to Ben Davis to AJ Hinch to Tyler Houston on down have their struggles. Many can’t really field, and can’t really hit a damn. Marson has proven to me that he can field, and that’s very good to see in a young backstop.
How much better a prospect do you think we get by trading Marson? He was a pretty good prospect himself very recently. Also, pitching prospects have their struggles too, and we can’t afford to throw up our hands and go ‘oh well, lets just not bother with them then’.
Hey, it isn’t my idea. I could see other GMs asking about Marson, who obviously is valuable. He threw out two guys last night and walked in a couple trips too. He might play a dozen seasons!
Trading Marson? It all depends. He obviously is very useful to us right now.
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