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Around SBN: More Televised Winter Baseball, Please

Game 76: Indians 5, Blue Jays 4

 

When the Indians brought Carlos Santana to the majors, Manny Acta immediately placed him third in the order, a spot normally reserved for a team's best hitter. He's lived up to that placement, hitting .333/.453/.725, walking twice as much as he's struck out in 64 plate appearances. Although there are many similarities between he and LGFT Victor Martinez (both switch-hitting catchers, both with prodigious minor-league numbers, both former infielders), those similarities end with their swings. Victor has a quiet, smooth swing, while Carlos' swing is more quick and violent. Yet despite the aggressive stroke, Carlos hasn't missed many pitches, whether they be fastballs or breaking pitches.  In the first inning, Carlos hit another rope, singling to right. Travis Hafner then hit his first of two doubles of the game. Both would then score when John McDonald made a rare bad throw to first on a grounder. Another difference between Santana and Martinez is speed. Santana scored from first on a Travis Hafner double off the center field wall in the fifth, showcasing good speed for a catcher.

Matt LaPorta blasted a home run to the left of the deepest part of center field in the bottom of the sixth, showcasing power that had been largely absent during his first stint of the season. The home run pushed the lead to 5-2, and would end up being the difference in the game.

Two starts ago, in Pittsburgh, Fausto Carmona was dominant for six innings, then completely fell apart, giving up his first three runs of the game in four hitters. Tonight, his start flowed along a similar  arc; through five innings, Carmona had only given up two hits (both singles), and had erased both via double plays. But things started to fall apart in the sixth; he loaded the bases with one out, giving up two singles and hitting a batter. He did get Vernon Wells to pop up on the very next pitch, but then Adam Lind laced a single to right, cutting the Indians' 4-0 lead in half. He got out of the inning without allowing any more damage, but allowed the first two batters of the seventh to reach, ending his night. The Indians bullpen and defense couldn't keep those two two runners on base, though neither scored on a hit. Tony Sipp threw a wild pitch, allowing the first to score, and then Shin-Soo Choo dropped a fly ball in shallow right to allow the second home.

Kerry Wood got his third straight save, striking out one and getting the other two outs via a double play. One can only hope that he gets on a roll so that the Indians can move him before the deadline, but also not scare off teams by finishing too many games between now and then. It's still very unlikely that he'll get to 55 Games Finished in the remaining 91 games; counting tonight, he's finished 16 games, and would have to finish a game every 2.33 team games from here on out to reached that mark and in so doing trigger his 2011 option.

20100629_bluejays_indians_0_medium

via www.fangraphs.com


 

Highest WPA Lowest WPA
Kerry Wood .165 Tony Sipp -.031
Jhonny Peralta .132 Anderson Hernandez -.029
Zombie Perez .122 Trevor Crowe -.028

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Has anyone noticed that Zombie Perez has not given up an earned run in the month of June? Furthermore, does anyone think this indicates real progress?

by JLK14 on Jun 30, 2010 7:50 AM EDT reply actions  

It is certainly progress over the horrendously DFA-worthy numbers he put up at the beginning of the season. It would be interesting to find out if they found something in his delivery that they were able to tweak, or if he was tipping pitches.

"Facebook is bad news. It and Jason Donald both crush dreams." - JRontherim

by woodsmeister on Jun 30, 2010 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with this. It’s progress to being a useful pitcher, but not being the old Perez.

by dgcambridge on Jun 30, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm. . . I’m not sure if I agree with your comparison of Vic’s and Carlos’s swings. To my untrained eyes, Carlos appears to have a much longer stroke that generates a lot of lift on the ball. He generates a ton of power, particularly by using the movement in his front foot to generate torque. However, his swing isn’t particularly quick—I think he’s more of an Albert Pujols-type hitter, who relies less on generating bat speed but is able to square up on virtually every pitch. Victor appears to have a shorter, quicker swing—he generates his power with his wrists and upper body, and he’s got a more level, line-drive oriented stroke. I do agree they’re very different though.

If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.

by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 30, 2010 7:55 AM EDT reply actions  

I think there is exactly zero chance that any team will worry about that vesting option at this point. After Game 76 in 2008, Wood finished 25 games. In 2009, it was 26.

To get to 39, he’d have to be on a 73.4 GF pace the rest of the year. Only five players have ever finished more than 73 games. With modern closer usage, 70 is only approached when a closer has a dominant season and is seen as very durable, reaching around 80 IP. That obviously isn’t Wood.

by Jay on Jun 30, 2010 9:41 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, when I brought it up on Twitter I was joking.

by afh4 on Jun 30, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, it freaked me out.

by dgcambridge on Jun 30, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Now that’s a weird WPA leaderboard.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 30, 2010 10:10 AM EDT reply actions  

True, the right side is more or less how I’d draw it up before the game started.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 30, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

…Actually, both sides would be my guess for “Lowest.”

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 30, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Read this before seeing the chart… said “Hernandez and Sipp must be on there.” Yep.

Must not be here for baseball either. Because that isn't what we're playing.

by westbrook on Jun 30, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Carlos Santana picked up a pat on the back today at Fangraphs, where he’s described as “the other great rookie” brought up recently. Small sample size alert (of course). With Santana batting third between Choo and Hafner the middle of the order suddenly seems like a real threat.

by MTF on Jun 30, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

More home runs than Joe Mauer.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 30, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Baseball is more fun with Carlos Santana. It would also be more fun if LaPorta hit like has done in June (Cle/Col combined) every month.

by APV on Jun 30, 2010 11:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Yes 1000 times.

Interesting little thoughts about Branyan’s meaning to Seattle, on FanGraphs and LL. Some proponents of the move suggest that the positive aspects are winning this year, assuming it will fall short of contending, for the small bump in tickets and mental/team chemistry/emotional effects of winning.

The comments just struck me as very different from what I read here more often -- that if we’re not going to contend we should win as little as possible for the draft position.

by dgcambridge on Jun 30, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think the mentality is that we shouldn’t win, but rather we shouldn’t worry about the difference between 70 and 80 wins if it means acquiring good prospects for the future.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 30, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

The idea that Russell Branyan will provide a boost in ticket sales and or change the Mariner’s victory total is dubious.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 30, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Alright, let me ask you, and anyone else listening, two folllow-ups:

1) Assuming that it doesn’t cost us anything extra in terms of prospects or prospect development time, should we be trying to win 65 or 75? Are those 10 wins better, or is the draft position?

2) Agree that Branyan doesn’t really matter. But if you change our (or Seattle’s) victory total from 65 to 75 or whatever, do you think that provides a measurable boost in ticket sales? This year or next?

by dgcambridge on Jun 30, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

65 or 75… I’m taking 75.

Must not be here for baseball either. Because that isn't what we're playing.

by westbrook on Jun 30, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree. 75 is always better than 65, unless you’re an absolute lock to get David Price. I would say the marginal value of three or four draft slots doesn’t compensate a team for the losses, either in terms of attendance or in future performance.

by odradek on Jun 30, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

75 is always better than 65.

I tried telling that to the State Highway Patrol officer, but he wouldn’t believe me.

"Facebook is bad news. It and Jason Donald both crush dreams." - JRontherim

by woodsmeister on Jun 30, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Get out to the Autobahn, they definitely would agree with you.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 30, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

1. My personal preference is more wins, but not holding onto Kearns or Branyan in order to get there. Trade the guys that aren’t in the long-term plans that can net you prospects, but try to win as many as possible still.

2. For the Indians specifically, I think that ticket sales would be pretty similar if we had 65 or 75. I don’t see Seattle’s ticket sales changing at all after acquiring Branyan.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 30, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

As to the second question, I don’t think it has any effect. But I thought the Mariners were talking, vaguely, in terms of a “winning culture,” and having some runs for Felix Hernandez, so “they can learn how to win.” I’m not so sure of the efficacy of that plan.

by odradek on Jun 30, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

There were commenters on Fangraphs that were right on the money. If Dayton Moore or Ed Wade had made this trade he would have been ridiculed for having no idea where his team actually stood. The rebuttal was that Jack Z deserves the benefit of the doubt. My question is does Jack Z deserve a benefit of the doubt already?

by Roger Dorn on Jun 30, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just randomly, I went to June 28, 2004, when Baltimore and Toronto were tied for last in the AL East, 15.5 GB. Baltimore went 47-43 the rest of the way to wind up at 78-84—still finishing 23 out—while Toronto kept stinking, going 34-51 to wind up 67-94, 33 out. The draft position difference: Toronto drafted 6th, and picked Rickey Romero; Baltimore, in 13th, got Brandon Snyder, currently playing first for AAA Norfolk.
Let’s make an assumption that these 6 & 13 slots are the draft positions of your 65- and 75-win teams. Going from 2005 to 1985, 13 #6 picks made the bigs, with 4 having careers between 0 and 10 WAR (Rickey Romero, Jeremy Sowers, Rocco Baldelli, Derek Lilliquist) and 4 10+ WAR (Zach Greinke, Derek Jeter, Gary Sheffield, Barry Bonds). 11 13th-rounders made the show, 6 with 0-10 WAR (Khalil Green, Casey Kotchman, Kyle Peterson, Mark Redman, Donovan Osborne, Brent Mayne and 4 10+ WAR (Aaron Hill, Paul Konerko, Manny Ramirez, Bill Spiers).
Obviously there are gems in the #13 spot, and while there is more total WAR piled up in the #6 slot, there are 2 more guys who played regularly in the bigs who were drafted #13.
Finishing strong for Baltimore in 2004 meant nothing going forward, in terms of wins. They drew well in ‘04 both before and after June 28th (2.7 million), which they hung onto in ’05 (2.6 million), but losing has eroded that since then.
I don’t think as a front office you play for losses; I think you maintain your organizational philosophy. Trading Branyan is in line with the Indians ethos. For Seattle, I don’t see the point.

by YoDaddyWags on Jun 30, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Copying and pasting from Fangraphs comments:

Casey Blake 2010 WAR (271 PA): 1.2
Carlos Santana 2010 WAR (64 PA): 1.3

and

Carlos Santana’s slugging percentage is higher than Russell Martin’s OPS

A week ago, we were having dinner at the Latin Quarter restaurant at Universal Orlando, passing the time by playing hangman on the paper tablecloth. The 10 year old’s contribution was CARLOS SANTANA ROCKS. The waiter was impressed by our musical tastes. I didn’t correct the misunderstanding, and just hummed a few bars of Oye Como Va.

by FredOx on Jun 30, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Jeremie Tice hits a 3-run HR in the bottom of the 9th (2nd HR of the game) to give Lake County a mid-day come from behind victory

by APV on Jun 30, 2010 1:25 PM EDT reply actions  

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