2010 Amateur Draft Thread
by Jay on Jun 9, 2010 11:50 AM EDT
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PrintThe Indians (like most every team) will make 29 selections in today's draft, starting with the #55 overall pick in a few minutes. The draft broadcast is not on TV, but it can be viewed live here.
There is some real first-round talent still on the board — including local kid Stetson Allie, who may have scared off clubs with bonus demands. [UPDATE: Pittsburgh selected Allie with the second pick of the day, before the Indians had a chance three picks later.] The Indians aren't afraid to spend a pick on a "flier" who will require a bonus well above slot, as they showed most clearly in 2008. Should be an interesting day.
2nd Round / 55 Overall — Levon Washington, OF/2B
Washington fits a couple of Indians patterns. Still six weeks away from his 19th birthday, he's a little younger than his peers. He's a JuCo guy, which the Indians haven't shied away from in the past. And unless I heard it wrong, they are going to try to move this CF to 2B, which they tried with former first-round pick Trevor Crowe and 2009 second-round pick Jason Kipnis — a disaster in Crowe's case but so far a success with Kipnis. Boras client.
3rd Round / 87 Overall — Tony Wolters, SS
A little surprising that Wolters was still available here — Keith Law at one point had him going in the first round to the Angels at #30 overall, and the Braves also were reportedly high on him. It's possible some teams missed seeing him in the final week, as he's caught up in a minor eligibility snafu. Wolters is touted as a big "plays the game the right way" guy — could be the next Pedroia, could be the next Inglett. He stole 25 bases in 25 attempts this season. Tomorrow is Wolters' 18th birthday.
4th Round / 120 Overall — Kyle Blair, RHP
Occasionally dominant, with occasional control problems. Great slider, seen as low ceiling overall but might have the mix of pitches to stick as a starter.
5th Round / 150 Overall — Cole Cook, RHP
Another college pitcher with a tall frame that could fill out, this one out of Pepperdine.
6th Round / 180 Overall - Nicholas Bartolone, SS
2nd year, small-bodied Juco middle infielder
7th Round / 210 Overall - Robbie Aviles,RHP
Highly thought of high school pitcher. Dropped because of torn ligament in pitching elbow.
8th Round / 240 Overall - Alexander Lavisky, C
Stetson Allie's battery-mate at St. Ed's
9th Round / 270 Overall - Jordan Cooper, RHP
Guess where he's from?...Wichita State. Guess who else is from Wichita State?
10th Round / 300 Overall - Tyler Holt, CF
Florida State CFer. Fast, I guess.
Rounds 11-30 after the jump
11th Round - Hunter Jones, LF, HS (CA)
12th Round - Tyler Cannon, 3B, Univ. of Virginia
13th Round - Michael Goodnight, RHP, Univ. of Houston
14th Round - Diego Seastrunk, C, Rice
15th Round - Benjamin Holmes, LHP, HS (OR)
16th Round - Allen Cody, RHP, Juco
17th Round - Aaron Siliga, LF, HS (CA)
18th Round - Jonathan Burnette, 1B, Georgia Tech
20th Round - Mark Brown, CF, HS (MI)
21st Round - Burch Smith, RHP, Juco
22nd Round - Owen Dew, RHP, Central Florida
23rd Round - Nathan Striz, RHP, North Carolina
24th Round - Andrew Triggs, RHP, USC
25th Round - Jeffrey Gause, RHP, HS (NC)
26th Round - Edward Lively, RHP, HS (FL)
27th Round - Jeffrey Schaus, LF, Clemson
28th Round - Demarcus Tidwell, OF, Juco
29th Round - Kirby Bellow, LHP, HS (TX)
30th Round - David Hill, RHP, Vanderbilt
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I have to assume we’d have taken both of the guys PIttsburgh took given the chance. Then again, It’s likely one or both would have been taken by the two clubs in between, too.
Yep. The other thing that prompted me to say that was I heard an interview with Huntington during MLB’s coverage last night and John Hart introduced himself to Huntington “Hey Neil, it’s John”
I really wish Huntington were in Antonetti’s place.
We want what we don’t have. It’s not really possible right now to have faith in the Indians’ talent evaluation, although maybe we’ll feel differently in a few years.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
But isn’t a lot of that a direct result of Neil Huntington?
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
That’s a good question, but I don’t think Huntington was ever that involved with amateur scouting.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
LeVon Washington huh? Interesting.
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Jun 8, 2010 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
Indians take LeVon Washington, CF, junior college. Drafted last year by the Rays in the first round and didn’t sign.
MLB.com’s scouting report gives him serious “personality” demerits – “perceived lack of effort” this spring. Apparently he may not stick in CF. They speculate a shift to 2B. Hmm. Familiar.
This makes me like this pick even less.
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Jun 8, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I was sort of cherry-picking the bad parts. Here’s the full thing:
Scouting Report
Hitting ability: Washington definitely can swing the bat. After a slow start production-wise, he was coming on as the season progressed.
Power: Shows surprising power for someone his size.
Running speed: He has above-average to plus raw speed.
Base running: He hasn’t been stealing many bases this season, though he does possess that kind of speed.
Arm strength: He has a well below-average arm.
Fielding: He’s not an instinctive defender in center field and is below-average overall. Some think that because of that, and his arm, second base might be his best bet.
Range: He has the speed to cover ground in the outfield.
Physical Description: Washington is a small and athletic spark plug-type player.
Medical Update: Washington had shoulder surgery that limited him largely to DH duties his senior year of high school and also slowed him last fall. A hand injury early this season didn’t help him get off to a good start, but he does appear healthy now.
Strengths: Hitting ability and speed.
Weaknesses: Lack of a defensive home and a perceived lack of energy on the field for most of this season.
Summary: The first-round pick of the Tampa Bay Rays a year ago, Washington didn’t sign and opted to attend Chipola Junior College, instead. He got off to a very slow start, though he was turning it on with the bat as the spring wore on. He still has the hitting ability and speed that scouts liked a year ago, but the question about where he might be able to play defensively still remains. He’s got the range to play center field, but the arm and instincts might mean a try at second base instead. Add to that a perceived lack of energy from the athletic Washington, and he’s been a bit of an enigma this spring. That said, there’s bound to be a team that will buy into the tools and hope it can get Washington to apply all of them on a regular basis.
I just watched some video on him, and he’s got nice “quiet” hands that are very quick through the zone. He generates some power with little moving parts in his swing.
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Jun 8, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe they’ll low-ball Boras and sign him for very little or be compensated in a much more attractive draft next year. He’s appropriately imperfect as a player and represented by Boras, so he’s easy PR cover if they don’t sign him. Maybe he is the perfect ‘un-signability’ pick.
Compensation for failure to sign a draft pick only applies in the first round, no?
For what it’s worth, I was thinking (before the draft started) that the Indians could pop a super-high-upside-signability-risk pick at #5, knowing that the compensation safety net could potentially give us a second top ten pick next year. But after the first three picks, no one really fit that criteria, and I s’pose it was better to make sure they got their guy in Pomeranz.
Ah well.
by ManchildinBeantown on Jun 9, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn’t sure about that either, but this compensation applies to the first two rounds.
Obviously, I had not posted this or I was almost immediately proven wrong with news that there could be a deal with Washington.
Still, they’re in a good spot with Boras, and that should be especially true this year with added leverage due to next year’s pool of talent, which they say is special. And not signing a 2nd rounder with red flags is less of a problem than a first rounder.
KLaw had him as the 91st best player available overall, his scouting report:
Washington was the Rays’ first selection in last year’s draft, but didn’t sign after a dispute revolving around money and his medicals and ended up enrolling in Chipola Junior College so he could re-enter the draft this year.
He’s changed his setup at the plate, starting his hands much lower than he had last year, and his hands are now “dead” until he begins his swing. He still shows good bat speed and squares up even above-average fastballs, hitting hard line drives with good backspin. He’s an above-average runner who could probably play centerfield if he can show a 45 arm or so, but Washington hasn’t been able to throw since 2008 labrum surgery.
I know of several teams that believe he’ll need a second operation once he signs to give him a chance to have even a 40 arm, which would at least make him playable in left field. He’s also shown limited baseball instincts and has been slowed this year by minor injuries. There’s still some upside buried in here, but his probability keeps going down.
by millionairesrow on Jun 8, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions
The #1, #2, #4, and #7 picks from Goldstein’s “Best of What’s Left” (which I’m simply having fun following) list have been taken.
3rd Pick— Tony Wolters, SS out of California
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Jun 8, 2010 12:50 PM EDT reply actions
from MLB.com:
Scouting Report
Hitting ability: Wolters didn’t have any hits in the showcase, but is a consistent performer at theplate. He gets his hand back on time, uses all fields and doesn’t have any problems hitting lefties or pitchers with plus velocity. He profiles as a future No. 2 hitter.
Power: It’s not his best tool, but he does have some pop for a guy his size.
Running speed: He typically has above-average speed, but he ran a subpar 60 at the showcase.
Base running: He’s a baseball rat, one who plays the game the right way, especially on the basepaths.
Arm strength: He has a plus arm from the infield.
Fielding: He’s sure-handed with a fast exchange.
Range: He’s got average to above-average range.
Physical Description: Wolters is an undersized middle infielder who fits the Dustin Pedroia-type mold.
Medical Update: He appears to have no long-term issues.
Strengths: He plays the game the right way, with a ton of positive energy. He can run, handles the bat well and is an above-average defender.
Weaknesses: His size. Some teams might shy away from the sub-6 footer.
Summary: At the beginning of the 2010 season, Wolters began separating himself from other high school position players. He knows how to handle the bat and the lefty has no difficulties facing southpaws or guys who throw hard. He runs well and has plenty of defensive skills. He’s not the biggest guy in the world, but he’s got some pop in his bat. A team that looks past the size and thinks about the success of guys like Dustin Pedroia will likely be very interested in what Wolters can do.
Scouting report—plays hard and “the right way”; good infield arm and hands; below average to average power and speed; small in size (5’10", 165lbs).
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Jun 8, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes me thing of an FJM quote I can’t place about players who play the game the wrong way, and forget how to field a ground ball and instead host fancy dinner parties on second base in the fifth inning.
Or something.
It’s such a broad comment, probably used lazily most of the time, it’s easy to dismiss entirely. But I’m sure there is something to it and as long as it applies to attitude/awareness/effort, I can think of some major leaguers who probably could improve in that area.
I’m okay with the quote as long as it pertains to the fact that he runs hard to first every time and doesn’t argue with the manager. I find the quote stupid when people use it to simply refer to a guy who wears his socks up at his knees, doesn’t wear batting gloves, and always has a big wad of sunflower seeds in his mouth while playing.
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Jun 8, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I still think “playing the game the right way” is not really descriptive of anything that’s really central to being a good player. If you run hard to first and ground out to second every time, you’re not a better hitter than someone who doesn’t run out every ball but hits like Manny Ramirez. Obviously, all things being equal, you want the guy who plays hard and listens to his manager. But, those characteristics have little value unless they’re connected to actual talent.
'If I'm not here, 'I'll be somewhere else.'' Andy Marte
Couldn’t agree more.
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Jun 8, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand the basic point here but I’m not sure I agree overall. Talent is obviously the most important factor, but I’m guessing “playing the game the right way” has a strong correlation to working hard and listening to instruction (and the intelligence to apply it). And over the long term, I think this matters a whole hell of a lot in terms of a player maximizing his talents. Baseball is hard for anyone this side of Manny Ramirez, and working hard is important.
The word “talent” actually comes from “work.”
What most untrained eyes see as “talent” on the playing field (or the stage) often has a lot more to do with hard work than with innate ability. Just as advanced science often looks like magic, hard work often looks like innate ability.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Right. I’m not sure you meant it this way, but this is an effective counter-argument of sorts to what I’m saying above. The “talent” we see even at this young age may simply be a result of his hard work up to now. And this can be seen as not a good thing. Still I think the general point stands: hard work matters and therefore, to the extent of the correlation, “playing the game the right way” matters.
Where I disagree is on what’s mean by “playing the right way” — this often is used to talk about someone who runs out ground balls, is willing to crash into the catcher on a play at the plate, and calls out the number of outs between batters. All of that’s fine, but it’s not all there is to hard work, nor is it necessarily the most meaningful kind of hard work. I used Manny as an example on purpose — he clearly works hard to be as good as he is — he studies pitchers, by all accounts, and does lots of other things that pay off. He wasn’t born hitting doubles, in other words. But, he’s widely regarded as NOT playing the game the right way, in spite of all of this. I want guys who work hard and become good players, not guys who work hard and that’s all.
'If I'm not here, 'I'll be somewhere else.'' Andy Marte
I’m pretty sure we’d all agree that there are matters of effort that make you a better player, and matters of effort that make Tim McCarver weepy-eyed, and that there’s probably a very significant disconnect between the two .
I think when one encounters that phrase (plays the right way), it’s important to consider source and context before choosing to discount it or not.
I think that, culturally, we have a strong belief that innate ability and hard work are altogether separate. You can be moderately successful with one or the other, or you can be really successful with both. But I think what Jay is saying above is that ability and hard work aren’t really so separate after all—effort creates talent., though we tend to not put as much effort into things we’re not as good at. So it’s a sort of feedback loop.
I just read a book about cognitive science that backs up Jay’s point that talent is a fluid attribute (Why Don’t Students Like School?, by Daniel Willingham, aimed at teachers). However, without certain physical attributes, it’s much, much harder to make it in the majors (e.g. you have to be much more talented to make it in the NBA if you’re 5’10" than if you’re 6’10").
Bottom line: a talented player that doesn’t work hard will eventually not be talented enough. You know that kid from high school who was really, really smart, but didn’t ever do any homework…who later failed out of college? Same thing. I’ll take the hard worker.
But some people are so smart, or so gifted, that it’s as if it doesn’t matter.
by jakesinger777 on Jun 8, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
No doubt some aspect of intelligence is innate, but at the same time, intelligence is a conscious choice we make every day from a very young age.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
talent and work ethic are both necessary conditions for major league production, and probably for production in any field. Neither is usually sufficient alone. This is a different claim than saying they are the same thing. Innate gifts are innate gifts; most people don’t get to make a conscious choice to work hard enough to be major leaguers. The same applies to the cognitively gifted as well.
You can have talent and not work—sooner or later the talent will atrophy. You can work hard and not have much talent—your skills will improve and you will therefore be considered to be more talented. They’re not the same, but they’re very closely linked.
Do you think you can pick out, for any all-star caliber baseball player, how much of his baseball ability is due to an innate characteristic and how much has been built through hard work? In other words, can you really distinguish between Choo’s level of innate talent and level of skill? And if not Choo, then why Wolters?
Talent begets practicing (the kid whose physical traits indicate he might be good at baseball gets encouraged to play more so than me, the wheezy asthmatic kid), which begets more talent. Anyone who’s going to make the majors has to keep working hard to keep improving. Now, Trevor Crowe can’t will his fast-twitch muscle reflexes to be better, but he can practice to the point that he runs better routes to the ball and he can surely practice catching the ball. Genetics matter, but less than we tend to think.
And as I mentioned above, cognitive science research suggests you’re wrong about the cognitively gifted. Intelligence is quite malleable. There are genetic differences, but they’re a small part of the picture. Also, re: not getting to make a conscious choice to be a major leaguer, check the opening of Malcolm Gladwell’s “Outliers”.
if you sample solely from a set of people who are productive in their field (say, established major league baseball players), then you will surely find both high levels of work ethic and natural gifts. No doubt the two combine with synergy, which is why the individuals in question ended up in the productive sample in the first place. I don’t think anyone in this thread disputes this. But this is still not reason for saying that talent and hard work are inextricably tied together.
We can untie them by sampling more broadly. If you sample from the general population, you will find a lot less talent and a lot less production, but probably a fair amount of hard work. Talent places both a ceiling and a floor on what someone’s production can be, probably across fields, but certainly in professional sports. Everything you say about how talent and work ethic combine well is true, but you only have to leave the population of the gifted to see that the two are separable.
No doubt this is not the forum to speculate on what cognitive science research does or does not suggest.
We’re talking past each other here. You’re saying that talent is an innate quality that largely predetermines how good someone can be at (fill in the blank). I’m saying that there is some small level of innate talent, but it’s largely overshadowed by environmental factors. Neither of us is convincing the other, though this is why I mentioned the cognitive science research. The context of my initial reference was that the book indicates fluidity of talents across a broader spectrum than just intellect. Therefore, it was surely relevant to the talent vs. work ethic discussion. The second time I brought it up was in direct response to a statement of yours about cognition.
I don’t think it’s worth going any further arguing about how much baseball ability is innate and how much is environmental. We’ll get nowhere. But seriously, for an easy (and I think interesting) read about biases in who makes it to the NHL, check out Gladwell’s “Outliers.”
Let’s just agree that Wolters having an apparently strong work ethic is a good thing.
I agree we are clearly talking past each other. I was under the impression that we were discussing whether talent and work ethic were different things. All of my examples were (poorly) designed to illustrate the difference. As to whether environment or innate gifts dominate in the production of outliers, I don’t believe I have expressed an opinion. Sorry for the confusion.
No. Eventually it matters unless they settle for mediocrity. Seriously, name someone well-known who is at the top of their profession and doesn’t work hard at it.
Red Sox are really loading up with “signability concern” guys. Have to wonder if they haven’t decided just to throw a bunch of money at this draft, odd as that might seem.
Fourth Round—Kyle Blair, RHP, University of San Diego, 6’03", 205lbs.
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Jun 8, 2010 1:22 PM EDT reply actions
You guys aught to see this girl in my econ class— Allie Stetson is her name, I think… check out her facebook.
Armando Galarraga gave up a 420-foot drive to Mark Frickin' Grudzielanik.
5th Round—Cole Cook, RHP, Pepperdine University, 6’6" 210lbs.
Anything in life is possible, except for skiing through revolving doors.
by MooneysRebellion on Jun 8, 2010 1:57 PM EDT reply actions
The average fifth-rounder never reaches the big leagues. Everything after the first round or two is strictly a lottery ticket.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Eagles holla
Len Barker Perfect Game Attendee
by PortlandVinny on Jun 9, 2010 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I see in the 9th round we took a guy named Jordan Cooper. This guy is destined to bring the best of Jordan Brown and Jason Cooper to the Indans minor league system.
Settle? Van Every is the only one of those four to make the majors. Defensive sub in CF, 8th pitcher in the game, and the occasional HR. That’s actually a hell of a lot more than the typical 9th rounder accomplishes, and Van Every was drafted 20 rounds later than that.
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Jun 8, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know what it means, but the Indians picks (i.e. Holt, Lavisky, Aviles) are getting all kinds of mentions in the BA draft blog
looks like the discussion has come to a screeching halt (at least on the picks that is)
For what its worth, here are the picks (Overall) so far; and the BA ranking (only up to 200); School
1. Drew Pomeranz (5); 4 Overall and #2 pitcher; Ole Miss JR LHP
2. Levon Washington (55); 66; Chiploa JC (FL) CF
3. Tony Wolters (87); 75; Rancho Buena Vista HS (CA) SS
4. Kyle Blair (120); 84; Univ of San Diego JR (CA) RHP
5. Cole Cook (150); 160; Pepperdine (CA) JR RHP
6. Nicholas Bartolone (180); N/A; Chabot JC (CA) SS
7. Robbie Aviles (210); 58; Suffern HS (NY) RHP
8. Alexander Lavisky (240); 89; St Edward HS (OH) C
9. Jordan Cooper (270); N/A; Wichita St SO RHP
10. Tyler Holt (300); 124; Florida St JR CF
11. Hunter Jones (330); N/A; Lakewood HS (CA) LF
12. Tyler Cannon (260); N/A; Univ Virginia SR 3B
13. Michael Goodnight (290); 171; Univ Houston SO RHP
So that makes 9 of our firt 13 picks in their top 200. BA will like our draft.
we’ve been checking the cheddar like a cheese inspector…if you know what I mean
by APV on Jun 8, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh man, Aviles is from Suffern, NY. That’s like 15 minutes from my house. I could have scouted him!
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
For comparative purposes,
Mike Aviles
Born: Mar 13, 1981 – Manhattan, NY
College: Concordia College (NY)
Draft: 2003 – 7th round by the Kansas City Royals
No idea if there’s any relation but very interesting.
Armando Galarraga gave up a 420-foot drive to Mark Frickin' Grudzielanik.
so let’s see if I can count…
2010 – rounds 1-10:
5 college, 2 Juco, 3 HS
5 pitchers, 5 hitters
2009 – rounds 1-10:
10 college
6 pitchers, 4 hitters
2008 – rounds 1-10:
7 college, 1 Juco, 2 HS
5 pitchers, 5 hitters
by APV on Jun 8, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Typically, your college guys are lower ceiling. In a weak year for overall talent, the low-ceiling guys just look like ridiculous long-shots to get to the majors … in which case, might as well take some long-shots who are in high school and might turn out to have a higher ceiling.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe we are officially in the whose name is worth the most scrabble points/who has the best spy name consolation prize portion of the draft
Ben Holmes (HS LHP)? Come on, Cleveland, you’re doing it wrong.
by APV on Jun 8, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Jon Heyman reports via Twitter that the Indians and 2nd round pick LeVon Washington have agreed to a $1.55M deal. Washington, a Boras client, was Tampa Bay’s 1st round pick last year (#31 overall) and refused to sign.
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In 2008 we gave Trey Haley (2nd round, 76 overall) $1.25M to skip college
by APV on Jun 8, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the update. You wouldn’t think it’d be quite so easy with a Boras client, would you? Especially not one who turned down a similar offer just a year before.
Commissioner of the Planetary Extreme Baseball Alliance (PEBA)
OOTP fictional baseball sim league
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Hoynes has a post up repeating this and reporting the Indians have denied that any of their picks have signed. Nothing but a guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a deal and are keeping it quiet because they don’t want their other picks using it as a market indicator for negotiations with the Tribe.
by MTF on Jun 9, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Historically, when the Indians pick up someone that other clubs don’t think will sign, they sign him. Some of the 2008 boys even signed for somewhat less than they allegedly were demanding, lower than the slot where they otherwise might have been drafted.
Some of this comes down to the kids simply wanting the Indians to draft them and not some other random team. Some of it comes down to teams having bad information about what their expectations really are, acting on rumors rather than doing the full due diligence. Some of it comes down to the Indians being a first-class organization that communicates well.
We’re going to sign all of Lavisky, too.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wow. This looks like a great pick. Even if we drafted him higher than the KLaw rating, getting a former first-rounder with a high upside who slipped at least partly due to injuries and then locking him up right away just feels nice.
by J83 on Jun 8, 2010 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
So now that we’re almost 20 rounds in, what do you think of our draft?
I think it’s a very solid haul. Like the Pomeranz, Washington, Blair, Holt and Lavinsky picks, love Wolters and Aviles, don’t care much for the Cook pick — think we should’ve done alot better than him (possibly Frazier or Gausman).
I love the Indians’ aggressive attempt to make more out of each pick than just taking the consensus “next guy on the list.” It seems like more than half of the higher picks are based on having invested some time into a relationship and researching the situation well. Information ultimately is the most valuable asset, and the information that everyone else has isn’t worth anything at all.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
All of this means nothing, in a way, unless we love getting excited about Eastern League championships.
Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!
It is what it is. The draft is one tranche of potential talent, and a slow-developing one at that. All I’m saying is it looks like they’re putting a lot of smart effort into making the best of it.
by Jay on Jun 9, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
No offense, but we’ve been winning EL championships with the “safer” picks approach; this approach, provided there’s good instruction, development, and luck (or health, if you prefer), should produce more impactful ML talent.
Certainly, we could win EL championships this way as well, but this approach has the potential to produce much more “fruit” at the ML level. That has to be viewed as a positive, at least in my opinion.
And, as mentioned above, the only way this doesn’t mean anything is if the Indians can’t sign a good number of them. All of them is unlikely, but if they only sign one or two of these picks, I’ll be a bit disappointed. If we can sign 5-7 (or more, of course) of these high-profile later picks, I’ll be pleased.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
+1 – agreed. I think the Indians’ approach to picking high-level talent with nearly every pick could pay better dividends in getting more impactful talent at the ML level, provided you have good instruction and they develop as expected (considerable “ifs,” certainly, but that’s true even with “safer” picks as well).
And, of course, we have to be able to sign them – hopefully, the Indians will be largely successful in this. Otherwise, then the picks won’t mean that much.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
20. Burch Smith (600); Howard JC (TX) RHP; was a Tribe 2009 pick (49) sounds like he is going to Univ of Oklahoma tho …[from mlb.com]
22. Nathan Striz (660); Univ North Carlolina JR RHP (our first good Scrabble entry outdie the Top 10)
The Tribe seems to have been pretty aggressive in getting guys with potential signability concerns. Given that any above slot signing has to go through the commissioner’s office, it may be hard to even know what players are entering the organization until August.
Very true – you have to admire the shift in gears, but they have their work cut out for them signing a lot of these guys anytime soon.
The change in draft emphasis is undeniable – signability, grittiness and polish are not as important as they were under Mirabelli. Whether its a general mandate or simply Grant’s increasing influence, (or perhaps Antonetti’s?) talent, tools and possible projected ceiling are clearly being valued higher now.
grittiness
Seems like “grittiness” is pretty high up the list of descriptors for this year’s draft class. I’m also not so sure this is a real change of departure as I said below. I also will make the bold prediction that the vast majority of guys we pay above-slot value for don’t ever turn into anything.
I was using grittiness as a code word for “making up in square jawed attitude what is lacking in talent”. The guys in this draft, like Wolters, that could have “gritty” in their description actually seem to have good tools as well.
Grittyness + good tools = the best of both worlds.
And, I think that might be the change in this drafting philosophy when it comes to drafting “grittyness” – when we’ve drafted in the past, we drafted grittyness, but little in the way of tools. Some of these guys we’ve drafted in this draft seem to have both grit AND tools – that has to be seen as a change, and a positive change at that in my opinion.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
The only thing the commissioner can do is frown upon it. He can’t stop it. Will the commissioner’s office want to keep it a secret until August so other picks don’t use the above-slot bonus as a reference point in their negotiations? Sure. But if the Indians are willing to pay, those deals get done.
My point wasn’t that they will or will not get done, just that we likely won’t know about it officially tlll mid-August
by APV on Jun 9, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
NY, BOS, and other teams do it – if the commissioner won’t stop them from doing it, why should he stop us? We can’t outspend them for marquee FAs, but we have to find some way to level the playing field, since the commissioner and company can’t (or won’t).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
So far this draft looks pretty different for the Tribe. I don’t know if that reflects a change of philosophy or simply the application of established philosophy to a different set of players. My guess is we’ll see an increase in what the Indians spend on signing players (maybe less on International players this year), but not a dramatic increase. As I said above, I don’t think we won’t have a full picture of the signings till late in the summer. I’m also guessing some of those picks in the 20s that dropped because of signability issues represent insurance in case the Indians can’t sign a few of the guys picked in the top 10 rounds.
The strange thing is, that some of those guys selected in the top 10 rounds seem to be lesser talents than the guys picked in round 10-25.
I’m really curious to know what the budget is this year, because it could cost them close to $8M to sign most of these kids.
Being that very little was spent on the ML roster, plus the fact that we shed some contracts in recent years (Sabathia, though he would have been gone by now anyway even if he was here), Martinez, Lee, etc. – the Indians should be allocating more toward the Draft this year, so I hope this will lead to the Indians signing several to many of these guys.
Like I said above, if we only sign one or two of these guys, I’ll be a bit disappointed; if we sign 5-7 or more of these guys (I don’t mean 5-7 total; I mean these high-talent late-round picks that fell due to signability issues, recent injuries, etc., in addition to the picks we should sign, like Pomeranz, Washington, Blair, etc.), I’ll be pleased.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Yeah. I made a list of the guys I want to see get signed, and it’s about 13 of the first 30. Most of them are the late round fliers and doesn’t include guys that should be easier to sign like Cook, Cannon and Jones.
If they have the money it’s doable. Perhaps a trade could free up some more cash (Westbrook or Wood most notably).
Btw, even in the last 20 rounds, they took some interesting guys. A couple of them are definately unsignable, but still sticking with the high upside philosophy. Obviously we have to wait and see, but this draft has to go down as one of the best (atleast on paper) in the last few years.
I wonder if they’ve decided that spending big in the draft (which amounts to what, paying a mid-rotation free agent SP for a year?) is a better allocation of money to build a roster for the long term than spending on arb/FA players. It’s definitely a departure from choosing so many “safe”, low upside, high probability of reaching that upside, players like Sowers.
It seems to me to be a very Moneyball-ish sort of thing to do—low signability draftees may be the new market inefficiency.
low signability draftees may be the new market inefficiency.
Oh my God, can we stop talking like this?
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 9, 2010 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If there even IS a new “market inefficiency”, the Indians aren’t any more likely to know what it is than any of the other 25 semi-competently-run MLB teams.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 9, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever the new market inefficiency is, it certainly isn’t “talking about the new market inefficiency.”
by Jay on Jun 9, 2010 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. Every time a team pursues a certain kind of player, draft strategy, etc., people start quoting Moneyball. Look people, this is how literally every voluntary transaction works: the party receiving the property values it more than the party trading it away. Every time you purchase something you want for less than you were willing to pay for it you are, in fact, exploiting a market inefficiency. That doesn’t mean you’ve stumbled on to some hidden truth about reality.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 9, 2010 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Capt. Shapiro Antonetti stumbles upon a new market inefficiency.
by YoDaddyWags on Jun 9, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
This made me chuckle.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 9, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
What I was trying to say, and used an apparently offensive cliche to do so, is that the Indians clearly needed a different strategy, that isn’t being done by everyone else. This may or may not pay dividends, but at least it’s a change. Was there not extensive talk here in the offseason about the team needing to change its approach? It appears that the Indians’ draft strategy may signal them working to improve one of the weakest links in the organization, and this is worth celebrating.
Also, Cap’n, you caught my secret agenda. My first reaction to APV’s discussing the change in strategery was that hopefully we’re trying to do something that other teams aren’t doing, which of course is the proper lesson of Moneyball. I used Moneyball language to tweak the idiots who think that it was about OBP being the bee’s proverbial knees. Can I say bee’s knees without you throwing a fit about my word choice?
I agree with the substance of this comment man. I think you just became the victim of some misdirected frustration. I apologize if I was overly harsh.
Also, I have no objection to “bee’s knees.”
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 9, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
And with their 31st round pick, Cleveland selects David Goforth (and procreate)
by APV on Jun 9, 2010 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
With pick 37, we pick Trey Griffin, very athletic 1B/OF from Atlanta. He was actually written up recently in the NY Times as an example of the way football and basketball can drain away talent from urban baseball teams. Googling, he actually sounds like a high upside pick, I hope we sign him somehow.
Here’s the article link:
Good article. Thanks for sharing it.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
I found a recent blog post by Trey complaining that he was getting walked too much, along the lines of “hey, please stop walking me, I have to show something for the upcoming draft!”
He was viewed this past summer as one of the few real 5 tool players going into the prep 2010 year, very highly thought of for future projectability. Signed a letter of commitment to OK State, but c’mon – he should be signable.
I’m an instant Trey Griffin fan now.
The Tribe is continuing to lay on a high number of difficult signability picks. It really does appear they are taking a different approach this year. It will be interesting to see who all gets signed and who doesn’t. 3 more HS guys, 2 JuCos and a draft-eligible sophomore among the picks from rounds 31-42.
I just can’t help but think they are drafting these tougher signs with a purpose. They know what they’re getting into with these kids, so they must feel they can sign a number of them. I like that they seem to have found a middle ground between HS and college players (the JuCo and sophomore eligibles) — still a lot of upside but slightly less risk than the general prep prospect. Now comes the hard part.
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