Early Weekend 6-Pack (7/1/10)
by APV on Jul 1, 2010 5:16 PM EDT
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PrintI am pretty sure I am not the only one for whom the season already seems oppressively long. But it is only July 1st. There are still three full months of baseball ahead of us. And with a 4-game winning streak, the best rookie in baseball, and the prospect of some guys returning and others departing ahead of us - I think we can go boldly forward with an early holiday weekend 6-pack...
1. They're better than bad, they're good (better than bad)!
Most reports from the Russell Branyan trade have focused on two questions - why did Seattle want Branyan and isn't it nice that Shapiro got anything in return for him. But the two guys the Indians received in exchange for the cat-like first baseman are not complete filler. Coming into the 2010 season here is where the two would have sat based on Progress Score and Net:
Ezequiel Carrera - 6.4 (PS), +16 (Net)
Juan Diaz - 5.8 (PS), -12 (Net)
Those numbers pretty much put them into the John Drennen (low-end) to Carlos Rivero (high-end) range. Diaz has a big body with a still developing plate approach and not quite enough power to match either of these attributes. But if he does, and he stays up the middle on defense, he has potential to be something interesting. Carrera is reasonably young, fast, and good at getting on base. His total lack of power is a detriment, of course. It should also be noted that Carrera is not as effective a baserunner as similar players in the organization with his skill-set. Carrera's +16 net looks nice until you realize that Michael Brantley (+76) and Jose Constanza (+63) completely obliterate him in this area. Most of this difference comes from the lack of power (even 2Bs) and poor base-running fundamentals - Carrera's netSB was just +1, compared to +29 for Brantley and +22 for Constanza. If Carrera can more effectively utilize his speed to steal bases and turn a few singles into doubles, he might be a nice 4th OFer.
2. Not to put any pressure on the kid, but...
- Carlos Santana's first 18 games: 1.165 OPS
- Manny Ramirez's first 18 games: .521 OPS
- Victor Martinez's first 18 games: .640 OPS
- Jim Thome's first 18 games: .481 OPS
- Albert Belle's first 18 games: .836 OPS
- Richie Sexson's first 18 games: .824 OPS
- Brian Giles's first 18 games: 1.320 OPS
- Grady Sizemore's first 18 games: .864 OPS
- Shin-Soo Choo's first 18 games: .425 OPS
3. Really, no pressure at all...
Shin-Soo Choo since Santana's call-up: .275/.383/.507
Travis Hafner since Santana's call-up: .314/.419/.647
The three have combined to hit 13 2Bs and 12 HRs over those 18 games (including a 6-game interleague stretch in which Hafner was only used as a PH).
4. A change can do you good
A number of people commented how fun it was to watch Mitch Talbot effectively use his changeup. The reality is really that Talbot has been effectively using his changeup and fastball off each other. Based on fangraphs numbers, Talbot uses his FB (avg. 91.1 mph) 52% of the time with a +4.2 run value and his CH (avg. 79.5 mph) 16% of the time with a +3.3 run value. The pitch f/x chart from Talbot's last start show how is able to effectively force the batter to move his eye up and down with the combination, and in particular how he gets guys to swing with regularity at his changeup below the zone.
One can hope that Talbot is actually getting more effective at this as the season has progressed. Talbot's K/PA numbers have been improving - from a 3-game rolling average of just 8.5% at the start of the season to 14% now.
5. The bottomless well - minor league relievers
- Bryce Stowell this season: 46.2 IP, 31 H, 4 ER, 2 HR, 17 BB, 71 K, 0.77 ERA, .193 BAA
- Vinnie Pestano: 34.0 IP, 32 H, 10 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 46 K, 2.65 ERA, .239 BAA
- Rob Bryson: 31.1 IP, 19 H, 11 ER, 4 HR, 10 BB, 55 K, 3.16 ERA, .168 BAA
6. A mini-poll to send you off.
What moment are you most looking forward to in the second half of the season. I am looking forward to a game in which Santana, LaPorta, and Brantley play major roles in leading us to a victory, perhaps supported by strong pitching efforts from Carrasco/Judy/Todd. Enjoy the weekend, everyone!
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that doesn’t mean we don’t have one scheduled.
Must not be here for baseball either. Because that isn't what we're playing.
by westbrook on Jul 1, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think the line for major league bullpen time goes like this: JLewis is first, then Todd, Pestano, Judy, Stowell. Though all are righties.
Sadly, I don’t see Brantley ever becoming anything as an Indian.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
The extreme lack of power thing, mostly. Though I was pleasantly surprised to see he is on a bit of a tear right now.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Even as a CF, he’s going to have to have a slugging over .400.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Not if his OBP is .375, with a high average and minimal k’s and good speed.
I’ll take .300/.375/.375 with a netSB of 30 from my CF any day of the week.
fka "DaytonDogg". Now a contributor to SBN's Dawgs By Nature. www.dawgsbynature.com
Yeah, that would be great, except that seems unlikely. The number of guys that can consistently get on-base at that kind of clip with an Iso that low you can count on one hand, maybe one finger.
Right now there are 2 players with OBP > .370 and SLG < .400 — Chipper Jones at .385/.385 and Elvis Andrus at .379/.337(!). And only 2 more players with a OBP > .370 have a SLG < .420. So it is quite rare.
by Buckeye Brad on Jul 1, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Grady won’t be in CF this year and, most probably not next either. In fact I don’t see him playing much CF at all after 2011. Given that he’s only under the Indian’s control for that period – you don’t think we’ll pick up his option do you? – we need to start auditioning CFers tout de suite.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
I agree that we’ve got a pretty limited amount of Grady time left, and maybe not all of it in CF, so yeah, let’s see what our other options are.
Are for Grady’s option, that’s obviously not a decision for now, and we’ll see what happens. But if I had to guess today, I’d certainly put my money on the Tribe picking up that option.
What’s your foundation for saying Grady won’t be in CF in 2011, other than just pessimism?
We’ve been auditioning a CF for over a month now. How do you think it’s going?
What makes Grady a good to great CFer? His arm? No. His atticipation? No. His speed? Yes – and this is the part of his game that’s going to take some time to come back – if it does come back.
Grady’s part of the Indian’s past – not it’s future. We need to start finding a replacement if we’re planning on competing for a pennant any time soon.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
Grady’s going to be 28 in August. It’s a little early to be consigning him to the scrap heap. You’re right that, if he loses his speed, his value as an outfielder diminishes. But, we don’t know that he’s going to become a liability in center (he may — we’ll see). And, there’s no reason to assume he won’t hit pretty well once he’s healthy again.
We ARE, however, going to see Grady for the next year or two, as he’s under contract for next year (and is under option for 2012) — it makes no sense to trade him in the short term. If you’re going to trade him, you need to play him first to demonstrate that he’s still got some value as a player. In that sense, he’s likely to be a major part (for better or worse) of next year’s team.
'If I'm not here, 'I'll be somewhere else.'' Andy Marte
I think Grady’s anticipation and intelligence are a lot of what make him a good to great CF. You describe him as if he’s Kenny Lofton. Kenny never had Grady’s instincts, and Grady never had Kenny’s speed.
It remains to be seen if Carlos can replace Grady as our franchise player. As it is, he’s still that once-in-a-decade guy whom we’d try to keep for the bulk of his career. If he comes back to have a productive 2011, we’ll be trying to extend his contract.
If his 2011 is a disaster, we attempt to sign him to a heavily discounted two-year deal for 2012-2013. Those are good years for us to make a modest free agent investment.
If he’s only semi-productive, we’re still picking up that 2012 option on a wait-and-see. We don’t pick up the option because we might want to re-sign him, though. We pick it up because it’s good basic business sense, in terms of projected productivity and trade value, to pick it up for 2012 alone.
We’re not going to throw out our 2012 contention until 2012 arrives. If Grady were healthy, there would be some argument for trading him, as there is for Fausto. Since he’s not healthy, we’re going to keep our money in a distressed stock and see if it goes up.
We’re not trading Choo or Asdrubal either, unless we totally get knocked over.
by Jay on Jul 2, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish he was Kenny Lofton, playing well into his mid-30s. For a guy in his late 20’s Sizemore sure has had an awful lot of surgeries. Let’s see, they’ve cut his arm, his abdomen and fractured his knee. Can you recall Lofton having anything like this – ever? I can’t. And since he’s had three operations all ready at this early age, what do you think his chances are of having a fourth or fifth? My guess is it’s better than 50/50 he has another musculoskeletal procedure in the next three years.
So you’re right Sizemore is not Lofton – more the pity.
And, oh yeah, I wouldn’t trade Choo or Asdrubal either – well maybe Asdrubal – or Masterson or Talbot or Herrman or Santana or LaPorta. Those guys are the future – if we have a future. Grady is not.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
I’ve overargued my case for the decline of Sizemore, but I don’t think the Lofton comparisons are valid. They are two distinctly different types of players. In style of play Grady compares more to Jim Edmonds or Eric Davis: guys who played with abandon, who dove and ran into walls (like Peter Reiser). Obviously, those players are less durable. While I think Grady’s best days are behind him, I’d bet he will return to play a decent but not great center field.
Oh I agree completely. The Lofton comparison is about longevity – not skill or style. Grady is much more reckless than Lofton, but that’s the point. That and the fact that Grady’s been cut three times already. And I’m not as sanguine about his eventual return as you are. If he’s in our line up next year my money’s on him being in left field, which begs the question: what’ll we do with LaPorta?
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
Play him at first, as we are now. The bigger question is who plays center, if Grady can’t. Not Trevor Crowe (I sincerely hope), and I’m not hearing that Brantley’s the answer either. Actually, if Brantley plays left and Choo right, that might actually help Grady, since they have some speed and can help cover the gaps. If LaPorta’s in left, you need a speedier version of Grady to compensate for his lack of range.
'If I'm not here, 'I'll be somewhere else.'' Andy Marte
I don’t think Grady’s instincts are exceptional in center. He sometimes took bad routes, but had been able to compensate with speed. That may not work so well going forward. Even so, I don’t think you can count on too much out there. He’ll probably still be a bit iffy in 2011. I imagine we will see a centerfielder or two in the system.
So those are last year’s nets. Didn’t Jay suggest that its been a different story this year? Although Brantley’s had an excellent week with the net.
Thanks for this — exactly what I needed to propel me through my last full day before a long weekend.
I’m looking forward to (broadly) Fausto’s improving on his good first half, and Laporta’s continuing to show signs that he might be the player we thought he was.
relatedly, it’s probably worth checking out the two photos they have of Laporta, side by side, on his player page on indians.com:
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=453181
(2/3 of the way down)
the plastic cup is suggestive of much larger vessels of beer in the vicinity
by APV on Jul 1, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
What moment are you most looking forward to in the second half of the season.
Seriously?
For our last 5 games to be started by the 5 guys currently in our rotation.
Must not be here for baseball either. Because that isn't what we're playing.
So (obviously) you’re a Westbrook fan, but do you really think it is in the team’s best interest to have him on the roster come September? Even if the return is de minimus, having someone else take his salary would be more valuable than his continuing to pitch for the tribe for the rest of the season.
I honestly think he’ll take a discount again if we keep him the whole year.
Must not be here for baseball either. Because that isn't what we're playing.
because he did it once before. And once he goes somewhere else, like VIctor, he’ll probably like it there too.
Must not be here for baseball either. Because that isn't what we're playing.
It’s in every player’s best interest to like it where they land.
We’re not going to pass up on any kind of halfway decent deal for Westbrook on a wish and a prayer that he gives us another hometown discount — which, it should be noted, still turned out disastrously for the Indians the last time around.
That strategy would be idiotic. It is, in fact, exactly the kind of stupid thing that got GMs fired by the Mets, Nationals, Mariners and Blue Jays.
by Jay on Jul 2, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously if someone makes a strong offer, it’d be worth parting with him and seeing if we can sign him to a deal in the offseason. There’s a point though where it’s not worth it.
Must not be here for baseball either. Because that isn't what we're playing.
No, that point actually does not exist.
It would be worth it to get 500K of salary relief.
It would be worth it to get a low minors relief prospect.
Keeping him for the stretch run is of very little direct value to the club.
by Jay on Jul 3, 2010 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree, I don’t think that’s a valid reason to not trade someone. But the theory is that a trade would decrease the chances of him returning, just for the fact that the player has a chance to see if the other side of the grass is greener.
If Westbrook is traded to St. Louis (as I saw rumored today), and he performs well, it’s more likely that he (and the club) would like to continue the arrangement and he’d be more likely to re-sign with the Cardinals. Do you think that Casey Blake would’ve been as likely to sign that three-year deal with the Dodgers if he hadn’t already been there? Both he and the club were probably more comfortable with each other.
Of course, if he gets traded and it doesn’t go well, then it probably isn’t a factor.
I do think the trade to the Dodgers had something to do with Blake resigning there. It caused the Dodgers to over-value Blake and give him an offer no other club would match.
In these scenarios, Winner’s Curse applies. Yes, trading a player away makes it more likely that his new team will outbid us for his services, stupidly.
by Jay on Jul 3, 2010 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Not to be outdone by all the mediocre players performing well in the system right now, Matt McBride has HRs in each of his first 3 ABs tonight.
He’s making other non-prospects jealous. Just wait til you see what/who Beau Mills hits tomorrow.
by xrickx on Jul 1, 2010 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Indians right-hander Jake Westbrook is drawing increased trade interest with the Cardinals reportedly at the top of the list. … The Indians are also likely to call up Michael Brantley from Triple-A Columbus and install him as their center fielder and leadoff hitter no later than right after the All-Star break.
Maybe we can get Dave Duncan back in a trade with the Cardinals.
"Facebook is bad news. It and Jason Donald both crush dreams." - JRontherim
by woodsmeister on Jul 2, 2010 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Do we now think Belcher is no good after just a few months? Seems to me we have an overperforming rotation and are already taking it for granted.
My completely unscientific feeling is that within 3 pitches of Willis’ mound visits, we usually gave up a big hit… that hasn’t been the case with Belcher.
Must not be here for baseball either. Because that isn't what we're playing.
I’m not sure you’re right, but I know what you mean. Fact is, Zombie or not, Perez hasn’t been as terrible this year, and it would be tough to grade Belcher on that test anyway.
On the other hand, Belcher is blocking Nagy.
by Jay on Jul 2, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
He might be. He’s not going to be free and clear, but the exact cutoff moves every year based on a formula, depending on how much service time is accumulated by other Super 2 players. I wouldn’t worry too much about it, though. A reliever with 20-odd career saves is not going to get a big arbitration salary, especially when he’s in the least experienced class of players going to arbitration.
by Jay on Jul 3, 2010 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions
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