Game 87: Rays 4, Indians 0
by Ryan on Jul 10, 2010 10:47 PM EDT
in Game Recaps
Email
Print
Matt Garza struggled his last start (3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER), but didn't show many signs of that tonight, allowing just one hit and 1 walk in six innings. The Indians hit did the ball hard several times off Garza, including a line drive back to the Garza that he caught in self-defense. In the ninth, the Indians would have at least got on the scoreboard if not for a very nice defensive play by Evan Longoria, who turned a likely Andy Marte single into a double play. Austin Kearns followed with a double that would have plated at least one.
But what I really want to spend some time on is Aaron Laffey. Sure, he managed to pitch into the sixth inning this time, just an out away from attaining a modern quality start, but despite the results his stuff was alarmingly bad. The best velocity he could muster was (I believe) 85 mph, and that not only means that his fastball is now well below his normal high-80s velocity, but it makes his high-70s slider that much more hittable since there's not much of a velocity gap between it and his heater. Perhaps he's going through a dead arm period that's in some way related to his recent usage as a reliever, or perhaps there's something wrong with his arm, but either way he's not going to survive in the majors with that kind of stuff. The Aaron Laffey who had success as a starter was a pitcher who threw in the high 80s, got lots of ground balls, hit the corners, and mixed in an occasional slider or changeup to keep hitters off his sinker. This version struggles to hit 85, can't hit his spots, and is often missing high. Yes, he's getting away with it for now, but he's not going to be successful much longer. I'd guess that Carlos Carrasco is in the rotation after the All-Star Break, and Laffey will be on the DL; I just can't believe that that much of a drop in velocity is due to a tired arm.
Travis Hafner left today's game with stiffness in his back. He was scheduled to sit for tomorrow's game anyway (Santana is getting an "off day" and will DH), but back injuries sometimes linger longer than just a couple days.
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Jhonny Peralta | .038 | Michael Brantley | -.089 |
| Frank Herrmann | .034 | Andy Marte | -.087 |
| Carlos Santana | .009 | Jason Donald | -.082 |
42 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
One point the Rays broadcasters made that I thought was fair was that Laffeys location tonight seemed pretty haphazard too, even though he ended up with 56 strikes out 102 pitches thrown.
Yankees Deem Swisher Worthless Enough to Compete in HR Derby
Must not be here for baseball either. Because that isn't what we're playing.
With run scoring down, a quality start isn’t worth what it used to be. Mitch Talbot, with his 3.99 ERA, is right at the park-adjusted league average.
Agreed. I’m thrilled with Talbot. I’m just saying, a QS represents a 4.50 ERA, which usually is right around league average, but not this year.
Possibly we should recalibrate the QS threshold each year based on league averages. You keep the same 3 ER requirement, but you add and subtract outs (thirds of an inning).
Ha, obviously that would be ridiculous, but then managers do let the Win and Save stat affect their decisions…
by dgcambridge on Jul 11, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
White is pitching very well in AA. I am excited; he might be our best pitching prospect when the end of the season is over, if he isn’t already.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
His home GB rate is 60% and BABIP is .155. That might cover up a mediocre K rate for awhile (until it doesn’t).
by MTF on Jul 11, 2010 12:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Was nice to see him rack up 7 in 6 IP last night.
by stuart dean on Jul 11, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Atkins on White from Lastoria
[Things to focus on are] developing a little bit more swing and miss to his pitches, developing a little more four-seam fastball command, and not relying on the sink of the two-seamer to get the groundballs. We love the groundballs, but if he starts to get the swing-and-miss too then we have something exceptionally special and not just a Major League pitcher.
Link here.
I follow that. It’s just that I’ve got to give him some credit for his run prevention because he is so highly regarded by scouts.
I should point out that all I have to go on is the minor league numbers of our other heavy groundballers-Gardner rocks a 2.71, when Laffey was coming up it was over 2.5, etc.
firstinning.com gives his GB%, which I think is the percentage of balls in play on the ground, a better number. Since his promotion to Akron he’s been getting 58%, which is a pretty big number. It is actually a higher number than Laffey has put up since 2007. Masterson has been in the 60-65% range since coming from Boston. His control has also been exception since joining Akron (6.8 BB%). But the K-rate (14.8% since his promotion) and BABIP (.200) do raise some red flags.
That seems like a lot of squinting. All I’m saying is that if he’s actually a top 50 prospect, that’s because of some non-statistical factors that, as of yet, I haven’t read a great report on. If he’s actually awesome, I’m sure I’ll understand soon.
My fear, of course, is that his numbers reflect exactly what he is-not that good of a prospect having a nice run.
Gardner plays on my thinking too-I thought White’s numbers, at Kinston at least, would look more like Gardner’s.
Maybe the scouts see something that suggests that he’s going to be a good pitcher. The numbers suggest that at the moment, he isn’t one. The fact that the scouts’ opinions may coincide with present-day superficial success may well just be a coincidence; bigger ones happen all the time.
Tango makes an interesting observation on low BABIP (via Neyer).
Tango’s point is a fine one, i.e., that Neyer shouldn’t have used the words “almost every time.”
You will actually lose money about 70% of the time if you bet on one pitcher.
If you bet on a pool of maybe 10 pitchers, you’d lose money almost every time.
Speaking of Neyer, I read something today from him that said Jimenez starting the All Star game tonight for the NL was a joke because he wasn’t even a top 3 pitcher in the NL (this season.) I get WAR is everyone’s favorite stat, but I found this asinine to complain about. Am I wrong for thinking this?
Not in my book. This whole thing is ceremonial anyway, so it seems like more of a “joke” to fret over who’s pitching the 1st inning rather than the 4th.
Plus, it’s an odd game with its own odd, strategic considerations. Maybe the decision was influenced by matchups with the AL starting lineup, who largely won’t be in the game later on.
It doesn’t matter who pitches what inning, but it’s an honor. I’d be pretty surprised if it was matchups. The reason he’s starting is that he’s 15-1, and he got off to a great start. We’ll probably have to wait at least 20 years until W-L record is further diminished as a stat.
For reference, the only Indians pitching prospects with consecutive seasons with a BABIP below .280 are as follows:
Carrasco, ‘06-’07 (.228-.255)
Espino, ‘09-’10 (.265-.263)
It is actually really hard to find any Indian prospects with a history of BABIP under .300, let alone .280.
It’s not really that surprising, if you mean the reduced strikeouts.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
I see a guy who doesn’t do anything that well-he walks too many, doesn’t have huge K’s, doesn’t have huge GBs, but yet he’s got this arm that everyone really likes and he prevents runs.
Shrugs. I’d rather have him with lousy peripherals than 2008 David Huff and his great periphs, I guess.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Let's Go Tribe
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
