Late Returns
My earliest reference to Nick Weglarz on LGT is from July of 2007. This is expected but still somehow stunning: I have been following this hulking boy-man around the internet for an entire three years, breathlessly reading his box scores and willing him toward higher and higher levels of performance. I don't know why I became most interested in Weglarz instead of Wes Hodges or Max Ramirez or someone else but I did and it has proved a propitious choice. It's worth bearing in mind that this is no reflection of any particular insight on my part: I have seen Weglarz swing a bat less than a dozen times, all for Team Canada.
The man who I have referred to as (at various times) Big Daddy Wegz, Nick the Stick, Little Nicky Weglarz and a variety of monikers involving Canada is suddenly flaming hot for the Indiains' AAA team, the Columbus Clippers. It is becoming easier to believe that our little power-slugging prospect is nearly grown up, just a few months after he didn't appear in Goldstein's Top 11 for the Tribe. The details are as follows:
Since his promotion to AAA, Weglarz has thrown together a triple slash of .289/.388/.491 with fifteen 2Bs, one 3B, and five HRs. Those are very good numbers for a young man of 22 (he'll be 23 on December 16) just a heartbeat away from the major leagues (yes I'm implying he would be promoted in the event of an assassination). However, as is always the case, the numbers are even more intriguing when we start to manipulate them.
Let me see if I can snow you as badly as I've snowed myself: first, it seems obvious that any young player deserves some kind of acclimation period upon a level promotion and, indeed, Weglarz took one in May and June. In the first two months he spent in Columbus, Nick struggled to post even a .700 OPS and, after all, wouldn't we all struggle like this in a new locale? I'm sure he was trying to find out where the best places to eat were, where to get his haircut-all the normal stuff.
Now, his feet soaked through, Weglarz has claimed July as his own: .386/.462/.702, eight walks and ten strikeouts. He has, indeed, become the new captain of the Clippers. For further self-delusion purposes, consider that if he qualified, Weglarz would trail only five men in the IL OPS standings. This is a flawed methodology of course-there are certainly other non-qualifiers performing as well or better than Weglarz (Jared Goedert coughs loudly from the corner).
Finally, quickly comparing Nick's XBH% to those of some other top prospects:
Freddie Freeman: 40%
Pedro Alvarez: 48%
Jesus Montero: 41%
Carlos Santana: 45%
Buster Posey: 35%
Nick Weglarz (AA/AAA combined): 45%
This is all existing without a clear context but for some points of reference consider guys who have put up decent AAA numbers but with less power like Cord Phelps (29%), Josh Rodriguez (34%), and Michael Brantley (18%). Also, might as well say that Jared Goedert's hits have gone for extra bases 49% of the time this year.
So, that's a brief update on Cleveland's long time coming power prospect. Perhaps he's just in a hot streak or perhaps he's about to ascend to the very top of prospect ranking boards. Still, pretty cool, right? That Candian kid, Nick Weglarz, he's all the way to AAA! And he's raking!
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Comments
any chance of a september call-up? i mean, he’s not the IL batting champ or anything, so I don’t know that he’s earned it…
Don’t you think our current outfield situation might strongly encourage it? I know it’s better if someone forces his way up but consider:
Choo, with a Thumb
Kearns, on the Block
Duncan, not at DH
Baby Brantley
Crowe (yes, Trevor Crowe)
That’s it. After that it’s Nix, who hasn’t played 10 games in the OF his whole pro career, and then Brown, about whom I shall not snark.
by dgcambridge on Jul 22, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
If he continues to slug .700, I think we’ll see him.
But seriously, I don’t know. There’s a long line for september call-ups. I’m sure Rodriguez, Phelps and Goedert will all claim they can play LF too.
In fairness, the MLE for Weglarz in April, May and June was around 700 OPS. It isn’t fair to think the Indians will give him a callup for at most nine weeks of mashing by the end of the minor league system.
Besides, you guys know how this works by now, don’t you? Early June 2011, up to stay.
i didn’t think we’d see brantley last year either, it just makes it early july 2011 or whatever if they do. i have a feeling acta will want to take a peak.
For what it’s worth, BA ranked Nick Weglarz as our 3rd best prospect in November, 2008 (behind Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta, and ahead of Adam Miller and Beau Mills).
by Deep South Ken on Jul 22, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think the real question is how people viewed him after 2009. It was a weak season, but if you were looking for green (?) flags on a weak season, they were all over the place.
Good point. I think the leg injury, and fears that Weg’s body type portended more such injuries, was what caused him to fall in the prospect lists—that and the addition of so many high-value prospects during the 2009 campaign.
by Deep South Ken on Jul 22, 2010 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions
The knock on Wegz was that as a bat-only guy, he wasn’t showing much bat. I think Goldstein said “the walks only go so far.” He’s always had the walks, but also the strikeouts and the small injuries. He’s always had age and plate discipline, but you want more from a guy who has no defensive value and no value on the bases.
Even Adam Dunn and Jim Thome hit for .300+ average in the minor leagues. Batting average has its obvious limitations, but if an all-bat prospect like Weglarz has so many holes in his swing that he can’t hit for average at the minor league level, he’s going to have those holes really exploited at the major league level. Those concerns over offensive ability are assuaged when the prospect who is supposed to hit for power actually hits for power. Sure, power is the last skill to develop, so there’s a bit of a catch here. Still, you want him slugging more than .425 unless he’s a middle infielder or catcher.
The thing about Wegz is that he’s our only hope for the outfield. Aside from him, we have a bunch of John Drennens at AAA and AA. At Kinston, Bo Greenwell is a singles hitter—a good singles hitter, but you need a little more pop if you’re a corner outfielder. Other than that, we got nothin’. So, yeah, Go Wegz.
by ken from alexandria on Jul 22, 2010 1:59 PM EDT reply actions
The outfield is somewhat thin, but the Indians at least have two above-average regulars under contract, each for at least two seasons. In baseball, that’s a long time. They could go for another Kearns-type signing for next year, and those guys are always around. I’m not too worried about it for the next few seasons, though it would be nice to have some legit OF prospects at the A+ or AA level right now.
Sizemore is under contract through 2012. I’m not saying he’ll be resigned, and I’m not saying he won’t move to LF if his legs need the rest, but there’s a chance he’s a Cleveland Indian beyond 2012.
Choo is under contract through 2013, after which he is certainly going to depart as a free agent. If you haven’t accepted that yet, I’ll send Scott Boras to your house to personally confirm it.
Weglarz, if he keeps hitting, will be on the Santana time-frame next season. Slot him into LF. If Goedert’s bat is real and his glove stays the same, he’s going to be an outfielder before he’s a 3B.
In the meantime, Shelley Duncan can stick around, hit a few homeruns, and be a non black hole on one of the corners.
What happens in CF though if Grady’s legs are as bad as we should probably expect? Do we just hope Brantley gets his act together (and fairly quickly at that) and just live with subpar defense?
Don’t worry, in a move that really surprised world dictator I have just traded Carmona to the Pirates for Andrew McCutchen in this thread:
http://www.letsgotribe.com/2010/7/21/1580692/pirates-after-carmona
So we are set in center, just need a new starting pitcher. But we have lots of those in the minors so I’m not worried.
I’m not seeing the logjam.
If we’re talking 2011, I think Grady is in CF until he proves he can’t be. Weglarz will get his shot in 2011 assuming (1) he stays healthy, always an issue with him, and (2) he continues to hit. If not, then it’s not a concern until 2012.
If we’re talking 2012 and Grady is in CF still, no problem. If Grady is in LF and Choo in RF, fitting in Weglarz is only a problem for a season. Hafner is in the final year of his deal in 2012. And if Hafner is not hitting well in 2012, he’s going to be traded, released, or benched.
It’d be nice if Sizemore, Choo, and Weglarz are all healthy and happy in 2012, but we know that’s not likely to happen. And if it does happen, it’s only temporary, because Choo is gone after 2013 anyway.
by xrickx on Jul 22, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Even with a healthy dose of hope, I’d say we’ve got three legitimate outfielders – Choo, Sizemore, Brantley. Given the injury situation and Brantley’s development, Weglarz’ statuts is nearly that of a clear-cut number 6 starting pitcher.
Sorry, what I meant was that Wegz is the only legitimate corner outfield prospect in our entire minor league system. I wasn’t thinking about Sizemore, Choo, or Brantley, or even Duncan for that matter. I consider them all major leaguers. I’m a minor league guy. And it annoys me that our system is so absurdly thin on the outfield corners. Every team needs waves of bats every bit as much as waves of arms. And that’s what corner outfielders are for.
by ken from alexandria on Jul 22, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but those waters have not been very productive for us (Austin Kearns to the contrary notwithstanding). That’s why we need something in the pipeline at all times.
by ken from alexandria on Jul 23, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
The dream of Brantley has been abandoned. Forever. Life is a black stain on a muddy, torn-up baseball.
From, Ben
Weglarz still has contact issues—he swings hard and really goes after it. That tendency will naturally lead to a lot of swinging-and-missing.
He has 63 strike outs in 296 at-bats….21% of the time he is up he strikes out.
Wonder if that would still classify as “holding him back” as the article says.
Good article though. Thanks for posting it.
The Once and Future King
You should be using plate appearances not at-bats:
349 PAs this year (over two levels, AA and AAA) with 63 Ks = 18% for K%.
He’s up from 16% (162 PA) in AA to almost 20% (187 PA) in AAA. But consider the adjustment that he took to the new level in evaluating this all.
He’s walking about 13% of the time. The K rate isn’t something that should “hold him back” from advancing, there are plenty of major league sluggers with high K rates (and we should assume that it would more than likely jump in his first year in the bigs, probably somewhere in the mid to high 20s) much higher, like Mr. Adam Lind or Mr. Matt Kemp for example.
Damn it.
I was thinking of doing that. Then when I got to the stats I was looking at the wrong category and then for some reason just never caught it. My bad.
Yeah. Good points.
And yeah…I was just going by that article Jay posted when it mentioned his swing and misses being the thing that has held him back.
The Once and Future King
First Inning is pretty good for looking at K% and BB%, though you would have had to do the math if you wanted to combine the levels (AA, AAA) as you did anyways.
21% isn’t really that high of a K-rate. The major league average is just over 20%, and for a guy with an ISO over .200 like Weglarz, being major average is perfectly acceptable. Consider that the major league average BB/K ratio is about 0.5, and for the last three seasons Weglarz has been in the 0.7-0.95 territory. I’d be more worried about the failure of Weglarz to really explode in the power department, something I’m only moderately concerned about (and maybe we are seeing it now), than anything in his plate approach.
Remember when I was lamenting us trading away Max Ramirez in many threads post-2007 (and pre-Carlos Santana)?
Ooofa. That guy fell off the cliff.
Flags fly forever, right? Unless Joel Skinner stops the flag from rounding third.
/kidding (I blame Sabathia)
by xrickx on Jul 22, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it’s interesting to look at the (admittedly simplistic) triple slashes of past tribe prospects, just for a basis of comparison — kind of a case study MLE exercise:
Obviously positional and age differences have a significant impact on our excitement
(I’ve generally selected a player’s last, relatively complete minor league season, but have made some exception — e.g. Marte)
Carlos Santana / c / aa / 22 / .290 / .413 / .530 (2009)
Matt Laporta / 1b / aaa / 24 / .299 / .388 / .530 (2009)
Andy Marte / 3b / aaa / 21 / .275 / .372 / .506 (2005)
Grady Sizemore / cf / aaa / .287 / .360 / .438 / (2004)
Shin Soo Choo / rf/ aaa/ .323 / .394 / .499 (2006)
whoops, should have Sizemore and Choo ages in there — 22 and 24, respectively
by supersizeme on Jul 22, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Keith Law on Shapiro today:
“Very well respected as a person and as an executive. Thoughtful, intelligent. But any discussion of his tenure will turn to the question of results, and that’s, to me, the major negative of his tenure, especially recently. To what extent we should judge GMs by result and to what extent we should judge them on their process, or on their financial results, is probably a question for another chat. I will say that if I was an owner I would be happy to have him as a GM.”
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
You know what? I’ve had enough of “thoughtful and intelligent” and “well respected”, gimme a guy who knows baseball. Enough of these “process” guys. How the hell are we supposed to judge their “process” when one of the core elements is some cold fusion, proprietary, BS called “Diamond Vision” – a mystery wrapped in an enigma. All of this “process” crap is just smoke and mirrors to deflect any criticism of the results.
Here’s all we really know: how many games has the Tribe won lately? That’s it. Everything else is just conversation.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
If by interesting and fresh, you mean ignorant and shortsighted, then yep.
Here’s the equivalent of what Chuck just said:
Two guys, one is 6’6’’, the other is 6’. The competition is to see who can dunk. The 6’6’’ guy has to try and dunk on a 14-foot hoop. The 6’ guy gets to try and dunk on an 8-foot hoop. The 6’ guy can dunk on that almost every time, whereas the 6’6’’ guy might be taller, but he has to overcome the ridiculous inequity — his hoop is a hell of a lot higher.
That 6’6’’ guy is Mark Shapiro. His height advantage is his advantage in intelligence and decision-making. That 6’ guy is Ned Colletti. He doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing, but since he has a shorter hoop, he doesn’t really need to be that good.
The only way the 6’6’’ guy dunks is if he either is super-human, or if he has some great plan. His plan takes time— he’s building a trampoline, figuring out where it needs to be placed, figuring out how to use it. He manages to build it, figure things out, and dunk once or twice. Just then, the 6’ guy comes and smashes the trampoline, and the 6’6’’ guy has to start again.
No GM is super-human, so it comes down to the process. That bully who doesn’t have to do any of the planning, who just destroys any progress the real thinker has made? That’s Ned Colletti, coming in to sign away a free agent, leaving Mark Shapiro to rebuild his trampoline. Given time, Shapiro can and has dunked the basketball. Colletti dunks it regularly, because, well, you and I could do the same thing given the opportunity.
So yea, if you want to talk about who has dunked and who hasn’t dunked, and draw the line at black and white results, go ahead. If you do, however, you choose to be willfully ignorant of the “why.” And if you’re going to blindly whine about the result, well, that’s just conversation. Mindless, but conversation.
by xrickx on Jul 23, 2010 4:25 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Jeez, chuck offers up an interesting, fresh take and here you go trotting out that old guy-builds-a-trampoline-so-he-can-dunk-and-another-guy-comes-along-and-smashes-it-up chestnut.
by YoDaddyWags on Jul 23, 2010 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
If I’ve heard it once, I’ve heard it a million times…
by TribeJay on Jul 23, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And you’ll continue to hear every time I hear any of this “process” crap about Shapiro etal. Every time.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
Chuck, I was not referring to your comment…I was just building on DaddyWags reply to Rick’s take. As if we’ve heard Rick’s exact argument before.
However, now that you called me out, I’ll supply a rebuttal to you. It’s fair to be critical of Shapiro’s reign, but when you start criticizing something like DiamondVision, you come across as someone who is criticizing something solely because he doesn’t understand it. I certainly don’t know what is involved in it, but that’s the point – you don’t either.
The way I look at it, the Indians returned to contention by 2005, which was much earlier than reasonably expected. After an awful bullpen killed 2006, the Indians were one of the best teams in baseball the following year. So up through 2007, it’s reasonable to say that the Indians organization under Shapiro’s reign was quite successful. So now after the last 2 years, he’s not a baseball man? OK – I guess that’s your argument.
My main criticism in the Shapiro era is that the Indians have not fully committed to some of their hitting prospects, particularly in years when they were expected to contend. Mediocre veterans have been brought in to protect the prospects, and they seem to have gotten in the way more often than not. Sometimes that’s ok, but if minor league data and scout’s opinions suggest that the player is a starting position player, then they should be a little more willing to commit to that prospect. Perhaps be a little more like the Braves in that respect.
when you start criticizing something like DiamondVision, you come across as someone who is criticizing something solely because he doesn’t understand it.
I’m pretty sure that if I saw the code I’d understand it. Pretty sure. But that’s the point, it’s another one of these “proprietary” hocus-pocus crutches. There’s plenty of examples in business where the “proprietary” program tuns out to be little more than coin-flipping.
So, if I can’t see it – and even if I couldn’t understand it – in the end all I’ve got are the results. And the results aren’t all that.
And sorry, I read your post much too fast, when I came back and re-read it, I wished I could have deleted it. Sorry again.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
So it’s hopeless, is that it? Or just hopeless for us? Certainly the Padres – and yes, I know that’s in the NL West – and the Reds – and the Rays – would disagree. But they’re not functioning under “The Curse” are they?
No, I’m sorry but every time I hear this tripe about Shapiro being some kinda baseball wizard I’m gonna object, same as with LeStunod and the same as Hafner. Shapiro mighta got an “A” in Public Relations at Princeton, but he’s getting no better than a “B-” from me in running a small market baseball club.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
All of this "process" crap is just smoke and mirrors to deflect any criticism of the results.
Really? You think way back when he took over in 2001, he said, “We know we’re going to fail, so let’s create all this complicated machinery of process and analysis — not to help us win, of course, because we’re not a good enough front office to do that. No, we’re going to go to all that trouble just so that when we inevitably fail, all of this will serve as smoke and mirrors to deflect any criticism of the results.”
Really.
by Jay on Jul 23, 2010 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You didn’t know it’s an “evil conspiracy” with Dolan too?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Jul 23, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not claiming that it makes sense. I’m saying that there’s no other way to explain what your words mean.
Go ahead – explain it to me. Explain what those exact words really meant.
It’s not that Shapiro etal explicitly are saying they have a “new and improved” process, it’s the saberatti that are claiming that all of the hinden “proprietary” sabermetric driven Process is somehow superior to the “Old School”, The New School guys are dying to prove that sabermetric driven teams will fair better than those operated by more traditional managers. They – the saberatti – say that, “look these guys are smart – they went to Princeton for God sakes – and use computers, and spreadsheets and words like algorythm” Their process must be better cuz they’re so smart.
The onus is on the one making the claim that he’s found a better way. The best way – in fact the only way – to prove that is to get consistantly better results. So far it doesn’t seem to be working any better than Al Campanis sitting behind home plate, taking notes, and submitting hand written reports to Peter O’Malley.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
The saberati don’t sit around talking about DiamondView. You’re the one who’s always bringing it up. DiamondView is just a database.
The new school guys won this argument a long time ago, and they now wield major influence in more than 25 front offices. If Shapiro’s “better way” isn’t working very well, it’s only because all the other guys started doing it, too — including several teams with a lot more money to spare, and in the case of the Rays, a fan base that didn’t care if they were the worst team in baseball for ten years.
Man I wish I could put the Band back together. Hank Peters, Al Campanis, Cy Slapnik – we’d run circles around these whipper snappers.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
You mean the last two solo albums both of which won GRAMMYs? Very underrated, those albums.
"Facebook is bad news. It and Jason Donald both crush dreams." - JRontherim
by woodsmeister on Jul 24, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course everything else is just conversation. What the hell else are you on LGT for?
You know, for a guy recently declared to be “always right,” you’re still wrong quite a bit.
And you’re attacking a straw man. Andrew isn’t saying anything other than this: We latched onto this dude, and it’s pretty cool to see him raking, for what it’s worth, which is not much. Yet.
by tabler84 on Jul 23, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Funny, as soon as I read the first line of Joe’s posted K. Law quote, I scanned down to see, as expected, mauichuck’s response. I have to agree that ultimately, results matter most. Yes, Shapiro is at a substantial disadvantage, but his record is questionable on some fronts, like player evaluation, for instance ( Phillips, Church, Ludwick, Luke Scott ). I know these guys aren’t all all-stars, but they’ve shown some value through the recent past. Also, Shapiro’s draft history is far from exemplary. And maybe he held on to Wedge too long.
“Held onto Wedge too long”
When was he supposed to fire him? In May of 2008 after he just came off a 96 win season? Or June of 2009 when the season was already lost and it wouldn’t have made a difference.
I would say in May 2009, when APV flipped out about pinch-hitting dellucci, would have been the best time.
May 18, 2009 still has a talismanic significance for me.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 23, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
If not, 2011 is not too late to start. Relatedly, I think my first ever FanShot was advocating for the hiring of Manny Acta.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 24, 2010 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
No, actually, that was your most recent FanShot. Your first-ever was sharing the report that Robbie Alomar had AIDS.
This is why fact-checking is important, kids. So someone doesn’t embarrass you.
I was younger then.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 24, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Ryan Church, he of the 9.2 career WAR. Luke Scott, 10.4. Ryan Ludwick has 13.1, 11.1 of which came after over a year in AAA, starting in 2007 when he was already 28. And Phillips, everyone’s “shapiro sucks” walking stick, has amassed 14.4.
Shin-Soo Choo, who was evaluated by Shapiro, has 11.7 so far. Asdrubal Cabrera, evaluated by Shapiro is up to 5.1 and he’s STILL younger than phillips was when shapiro cut bait on him.
might as well call out shapiro for drafting a couple successful left handed college starting pitchers, too while we’re beating dead, cherry picked horses.
I like how his examples are, basically, Shapiro’s most notorious mistake, Brandon Phillips, and then three slow white guys. Inglett apparently too athletic to make the list.
Because Phillips is Shapiro’s most notorious mistake he doesn’t count?
Ludwick and Scott are corner bats, not much more. Granted. However, Church could play cf.
Not sure what their races have to do with it.
sure he counts. but you can’t mention him and conveniently omit carlos santana and grady sizemore, etc and some of his most notorious coups.
church could play cf, but he’s never healthy long enough to do so.
and Cliff Lee.
I hate the steelers the way a mother loves a child.
by notthatnoise on Jul 23, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Let’s not forget Shapiro’s biggest mistake – the Hafner contract. Another slow white guy.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
That’s hindsight. It can be argued that you should never pay that much for a DH, but Hafner was our best player offensively and got paid accordingly. Didn’t work out in the end, but imagine the outrage if we would’ve lost both him and CC.
That’s hindsight.
Once again: no, no it’s not. A good GM shouldda known better.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
A GM is supposed to be a prophet?
By this logic that Hafner’s contract was a mistake, do you also believe letting Thome go was a mistake too? Afterall, a prophet should have predicted his solid OPS into his late 30’s.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Jul 23, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
A GM is supposed to be a prophet?
That’s exactly what a $4M a year GM is supposed to be. He’s supposed to be able to predict who’s gonna succeed and who’s gonna fail. It’s a very, very hard job. But that’s why they pay him $4M a year.
Here were my thoughts – I pulled a few punches so as not to rile the natives too much – on the Hafner signing.
And just for the record, I thought Garko would OPS >.850 in ‘08. I thought Beau Alred was gonna be an superior ML player. I also think that Sizemore’s days as an everyday CFer are over. I think that Herrman and not C.Perez is our closer of the future.
I’ve been wrong before. But then again I ain’t makin’ some I X a megabuck a year at this either.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
your post on hafner looks prophetic, as I think everyone agrees.
its also the opposite of the “results dominant analysis” you keep peddling. It gives several excellent reasons to believe the “results” are not what they appear to be.
I’ll leave the last part of the syllogism up to you.
As fans it has to be results dominate, because results are all that we have complete access to. I’ve read more than a few posts about Diamond View and how great and wonderful it is. But, to my mind anyway, it’s no different than the “I Write Like” algorythm. It’s magical and all I’ve got to go on are the results.
A few of the posters in that thread have run some prose from some of the sited authors to see if the program could identify the author. Checking the results in other words. A perfectly valid, intelligent way to test an unseen black box analytical method. I submit that the same approach is valid in evaluating the Indians FO performance. Extactly what are we getting from the Wizard’s magic “process”? And the answer is a struggling ball club that will probably be much better in the future. My only question is: will it be good enough to beat the Yankees/Red Sox/ Rays/Rangers/Twins and get us to the WS?
Right now, I’m skeptical.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
I get it. put in these terms i even sort of agree with you.
But—the fundamental assumption here is that the results are biased. If they weren’t, the whole small market club point would be stupid. We’ve pointed out a number of ways this bias manifests itself, mostly in terms of the low margin for error.
So the question is: how good is our GM, and by implication, how good does he have to be, given the bias in the system?
There are many ways one might answer this question. One can, as you tend to do in your most lucid moments, analyze the quality of individual decisions. Perhaps even the magic “process” that led to them, though I think there are a lot fewer wizards in this discussion than you seem to believe.
But the results will not tell us the answer, since the results are biased.
Phrased as “I am skeptical that the process which drives our presently struggling but in the future better ball club will be sufficient to win a world series,” your point is well-taken, and usually quite pithy
Phrased as "we’re behind the royals!! the royals by Jove!’ it is…not pithy.
A succinct view of a contrary take. Most of those in opposition take the bait about the Royals and ignore the penultimate paragraph.
Here’s why I’m fixated on the Royals. They are a small to mid market club – with the attendant economic problems. In other words they’re in the same boat economicaly we are. They are run by – arguably – the worst GM in all of baseball. And yet, and yet, here we are in 2009 and – probably – 2010 getting almost exactly the same results. And I know there’s a awful lot of variables in there, but if they’ve got the worst GM in all of baseball and we’ve got (sound of cerubs playing trumpets) a two time General Manager of the Year! How in the hell is this possible? What are we missing?
I know, I know, it’s all about the Future. Would you be surprised if I told you a whole bunch of baseball carnival barkers sold this same elixir for over 20 years in Cleveland? Well they did.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
I don’t believe that old elixir had any “Executive of the Year” in it. I’m pretty sure there weren’t, at any point, two 93+ win seasons over the five previous years while that old elixir was being sold.
What you’re talking about, and what the Royals are doing, is what the Indians used to do and what the Pirates did up until they hired Huntington a few years ago. The difference between the Royals and Indians now is that the Indians are playing 2010 for 2013, while the Royals are unlikely to finish better than 4th place before the current GM is fired.
I think a legitimate argument could be made that a managerial change was in order sometime in ’09 while there was still time to try and salvage the season.
I’m not a fan of Phillips, but would you not want him as the Tribe’s 2b right now? Church, Ludwick, and Scott have had periods (years) of productivity.
Anyway, my point is that in critiqueing Shapiro you have to dig deeper than the market challenges Shapiro must overcome.
Of course you have to dig deeper than that. Focusing on results is the opposite of digging deeper.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 23, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
and my point is, to criticize shapiro, you have to dig deeper than brandon phillips and three outfielders who’s “years of productivity” came so late in their careers, and so at the limits of usable productivity that is completely unreasonable to presume the indians should have hoarded these guys through roster crunches, years of contention, option and arbitration clocks and other, more productive players getting time in their stead. would you really want all those names to have occupied permanent spots in our outfield over the last 5 or 6 years? because, you don’t just get to take the productive ones, and you don’t just get to also keep gutierrez and choo when they’re out of options. 25 and 40. these numbers matter.
Ludwick’s highest OPS in our minors was .852 as a 25-year-old. It was .602 as a 26-year-old in his last tour with us. Would you have given him a starting corner outfield spot?
Steel Nick
Arguments for a guy like Ludwick go both ways, and frankly I’m not sure what side is the stronger position. You can say he never performed to the level to be worth anything while in Cleveland’s system (which is sort of true: .247/.305/.467 in the majors, really old minor leaguer putting up .830-ish OPS in AA/AAA). Or you can say, given what he has done in the majors with St. Louis (.278/.348/.508), why didn’t he perform better in Cleveland?
.467 slugging is very good. He was injured, and caught, as I probably wrongly remember it, in a roster crunch.
I think the point we’re getting at in this subthread is this: Your comment,
his record is questionable on some fronts, like player evaluation
isn’t exactly ironclad.
Steel Nick
But you also have to take into account players he signed in when looking at player evaluation. I’m as big a Shap fan as is on this site, but signings like Michaels and Dellucci (just to name two off the top of my head) show he is capable of making serious misjudgments.
I just want to believe.
In relatively minor deals, though.
Dellucci got half as much as Byrd, but people tend to think of them as similar deals.
I guess by “minor deals” you are referring to their financial cost, but these were our starting left fielders.
Pretty decent line-up, no?
1B Julio Franco
2B Carlos Baerga#
SS Omar Vizquel#
3B Jim Thome*
LF Albert Belle
CF Kenny Lofton*
RF Manny Ramirez
DH Eddie Murray#
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
this is all just too very simplistic and lazy. i want to see the list of GMs that don’t make any mistakes. do we need to get a scale and start filling either side with checkers? i’ll start. for every ‘loss’ you bring up, i’ll counter it with a ‘get.’
Phillips – Asdrubal
Ludwick – Choo
Church – Ronnie Belliard
Scott – Casey Blake
Michaels – Marty Cordova
Dellucci – Kevin Millwood
nobody comparable — Cliff Lee
nobody comparable — Grady Sizemore
nobody comparable — Carlos Santana
by Jay on Jul 23, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
this is the most important part.
I hate the steelers the way a mother loves a child.
by notthatnoise on Jul 23, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
talking about 05-09, “the contending years”, it’s what, 3-2? the misses were dreadful and critical, but overall (volatility, market, blah, blah), i don’t feel quite as bad about the bullpens over the years as a lot do regarding it being preventable. 08 was pretty much the exact same pen as 07 who were pretty good with an unconscious betancourt heading the group. i don’t think i remember thinking, “boy, the pen needs a shake-up before next year”. the miss that bugs me the most is that when he finally got fed up and wanted to spend some recourses on the pen, Wood didn’t pan out.
we’ve talked about this before, but i do envy the yankees being able to spend chunks of money, not just on their closer, but on set-up men, getting to use good starting prospects in the pen, etc.
I agree with you. But wasn’t there an implicit decision by Shapiro et al. that bullpens were volatile, random and a waste of money? That resources were better spent elsewhere? That was a mistake, and an avoidable one. Maybe the success of the 2007 pen simply strengthened that position. And, yes, when they decided they had to spend on the pen they did it unwisely, though I didn’t think Wood was bad at the time.
THIS THIS
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 23, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not necessarily arguing with you, Brick. He’s had a number of true finds – Millwood being one of my favorites – but he’s also signed a number of veteran duds. Shall we start bringing up bullpens?
Shap has taken us through one arc of demolition-rebuilding-demolition and will be leaving the team with a solid majority of new talent in place/seen the ML/near the majors in the second arc. I am satisfied with his tenure as GM – or at least as satisfied as I could be sans a WS win.
And plus – it’s not like he’s leaving. He’s just movin’ on up (…movin’ on up).
I just want to believe.
I know we don’t like to mention wins and losses much in these analyses, but I think the point is that all this supposedly exemplary talent evaluation has resulted in, again, one of the worst teams in baseball.
Let the piling on commence…
i’m just not going to bother. at this point, this is flame baiting to me. congrats, you can look as deep as our 2010 record.
None of what’s been offered here is very deep. You point out successes, someone else points out failures, back and forth. I simply suggested that the results might speak for themselves.
Here’s a bit of unsubstantiated depth:
Shapiro’s process may overvalue relative production from the high end of the defensive spectrum at the expense of production gained from the positions where offense is typically expected, sometimes to the detriment of our defense as well as overall offensive production.
I’d love to spend the next couple hours pouring over baseballreference to prove this, but I honestly don’t have the time. Neither do you, judging from your output. It’s why I rarely post. When I do, I guess it appears to you that I’m trolling. That is not my intent.
the problem with the ‘all you have to look at is results’ is that it has to circle all the way back to the initial discussion where you have to consider the market factors that he’s handcuffed by as well. and that’s what’s been discussed ad nauseum over the last few years.
that’s what feels like trolling. it feels like trolling when chuck compares our record to the royals and says “bam, the proof is in the pudding.” it’s one step away from “count da ringz” in my opinion. you can talk all day about things like the third paragraph here – i think that’s really interesting, in fact. but an over simplistic post dismissing his “supposedly exemplary talent evaluation” with the counter point of simply the fact that their record sucks feels pretty disingenuous. it ignores too many factors and provides one broad-sweeping conclusion. if you really feel that talent evaluation is the culprit, than let’s have some back-up, not just a jab. but clearly, as you intimate your thinking here, it’s something beyond just that factor that’s currently being discussed.
His point was started and stopped with the fact that we have been rip-poop terrible in 2008, 2009, and 2010, and you replied with 181 words – close to a record for you? – saying what, exactly? Market forces made us lose?
instead of word-counting my post, try reading it.
his point: bad record = must mean talent evaluation sucks.
my point: not that simple, many other factors. market is one of them, a big one – the sole one for 2010 being a rebuilding year. a concept that if you point to this year’s record and ignoring or using as evidence of anything is a gigantic waste of everyone’s time. injuries, under performance, bad luck, bad timing, bad bullpens – all on the heels of Shapiro let luke freaking scott go – evidence to his being a bad talent evaluator – evidence that has been disputed by pointing out indisputable talent on the flip side of that coin.
you want to talk about bad bullpens or bad defense, fine, but i’m sick of this “it all sucks cause our record sucks” tripe.
Well we had health, overperformance, great luck, timing, and the BP in place in 2007 and almost got there. To Shapiro’s great credit. But as others have long ago pointed out, it could be that 2005 and 2007 were fantastically flukey. And while he certainly has murdered a ton of GMs on the trade block, the man actually cannot evaluate (or acquire) bullpen talent. He simply can’t fail every time either. Just most of the time.
What is your audit? Yes, bad bullpen, bad defense, bad contracts, three straight years of terrible records, no real public come-to-Jesus accountability, and little/no inspiring every possible target group in Cleveland. Are these actual problems? Who is responsible? What were/are we doing wrong?
3 2 1 till someone trots out, “other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” Thinkin’ Westbrook, Wood.
Jay, help me out here. What are our good larger-size contracts?
What are our good larger-size contracts?
The CC and Grady extension’s
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jul 23, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
What are our good larger-size contracts?
The ones we didn’t sign?
by Jay on Jul 23, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If you knew absolutely nothing about baseball and read “Money Ball” you’d think that the A’s must be dominating the Major Leages. After all Beane was playing chess while the rest of those fakakta GMs were playing checkers. So what would you do to check your interpretation? Me, I’d look at their record since 2003. It’s not bad, I guess, losing 4 LCS, winning one LCS and getting swept in one ALCS in the last 7 years. Not bad, just not in keeping with the hype.
I view Shapiro’s tenure the same way. One very, very good year (2007) and two decent years outta eight. That and a huge nose dive in 2008 followed by one truly embarassing year (2009) followed by a year of promise. Not exactly what I’d call HoF type GMing. Given the hype, I expect better.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
Thanks for your reply.
I do think Shapiro’s all-around talent evaluation skills, or those of his personnel, are questionable. I honestly fail to see how he can be evaluated any other way, based on the results, measured in wins and losses. There’s only so much that can be pinned on bad luck and finances. Obviously we are hindered by lack of revenue. But at some point, wouldn’t you agree that a good talent evaluation process will result in a good team? This team has been not only not good, but atrocious for three years running. (I still don’t see how that statement, posited in opposition to the idea that Shapiro is a good talent evaluator not just in opposition to the Luke Scott move, can be construed as trolling.)
As far as talent evaluation, and echoing something I think Andrew said a while back, I think Shapiro makes moves that almost always look great on paper and many have worked out brilliantly. I used to look at Baseball Think Factory and Baseball Prospectus a lot back in their early days and started noticing something about their respective transaction analyses. Each would often come down hard from a sabermetric perspective on one team or the other’s side in a particular trade. Glancing back over those analyses a few years later, you would almost always find that they were flat out wrong. Carlos Silva, it would turn out, had something left! Jeremy Giambi and Hee Sop Choi, in spite of all the sabermetric evidence, would never be good at all! I sometimes think Shapiro, or possibly some of his staff, don’t have enough baseball knowledge to see beyond what everyone else can see with the statistics. Our recent drafts, however, point to improved amateur-level talent evaluation.
I actually think we are headed in the right direction and that Shapiro has changed his philosophy in many areas, not least the one I mentioned above regarding the defensive spectrum. I don’t think he (or, hopefully Antonetti) will hesitate to put his foot down and require that Grady be put in left field if he returns at a diminished physical level when there is a better alternative. I don’t think we’ll witness a repeat of a Gutierrez in right field, for example. Or, Peralta at short.
You make some interesting points here, but I still wonder if the external factors are being well accounted for in your evaluation. The financial situation isn’t some detail or even one of a series of significant factors in our team’s destiny. It is The One Significant Factor. It is the reason we don’t have Sabathia and Lee and Martinez on this team, right now. (And God help us, probably Blake, too.)
I take your point about BTF, BP, etc., and the know-it-all sabermetric attitude. Still, this is pretty selective stuff. You wouldn’t have any trouble finding a dozen busts, from amateurs to veterans, who were considered can’t-miss by a consensus of the game’s best scouts. There is a lot more failure in baseball than success, which means that it’s a lot easier to look stupid than smart.
If the nerds are guilty of anything, it’s mainly overconfidence, but here again, it’s not like scouts are known as a particularly humble bunch. Did the scouts say Carlos Silva had something left? Really? Because I’m wondering, why is it, then, that über-scout Jack Z wanted to be rid of him, and why is it, then, that no team would offer him anything more than an albatross carrying a big bucket of crap in its beak (you’ll pardon the mixed metaphor) in the form of Milton Bradley and his contract?
“Gutierrez in RF” categorized as “mistake” is another example of selective memory. In which season, exactly, did Gutierrez look like he should be starting games for the Indians at any position? And in what season, exactly, did Sizemore not win a Gold Glove while Gutierrez toiled in RF? I’m not saying Gutierrez wasn’t the better defender. I am saying it never was all that clear that Gutierrez would stay in the lineup long-term or that Sizemore wouldn’t be a strong defender for several more years, and the decision to move Sizemore around starts there.
One final point is that there is going to be a natural boom-and-bust cycle for any well functioning small market club. Shapiro was given the reins just in time for boom to turn to bust, and I think few would argue that there wasn’t much he could do forestall it, and indeed, that he should have tried even less to forestall it than he actually did. Now we are back in the bust part of the cycle again, and Shapiro is turning the reins over to Antonetti.
My point is that Shapiro as GM presided over two bust parts of the cycle and only one boom. It is of course partly his doing that the boom part didn’t last longer, but the fact remains that Hart handed him a corroding system and he’s handing Antonetti a pretty nicely rebuilt one. I don’t think it’s overly generous to say that he has taken more than his fair share of the heat in the bust years and won’t be sticking around (as GM) to enjoy the shine of the next boom.
I refuse to accept “The One Significant Factor” as an excuse. It can be overcome. We can succeed. But we’re gonna hafta be a lot smarter at every aspect of talent evaluation to do it – this includes drafting. We’re gonna hafta win with younger players, our better players will be leaving by the time they hit 28 -30. But we can still win it all. We’re just gonna hafta be a lot smarter and tougher than those other teams on the other side of “The One Significant Factor”
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
I believe people are unwilling to accept this because of the inherent unfairness of it. It’s a difficult thing to accept in a culture that supposedly promotes fairness. People can not accept the fact that the Indians have the deck stacked against them.
Beyond that, there’s a semantic gap that needs to be closed.
Shapiro might be a damned good GM, but he wasn’t as good as we needed him to be. And there is nothing you can say in his defense to change that.
by Jay on Jul 24, 2010 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Shapiro might be a damned good GM, but he wasn’t as good as we needed him to be.
There it is.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
I disagree with this. Shapiro was good enough to get us to a 3-1 lead in the ALCS, with a patsy waiting in the World Series. Are you telling me that Shapiro was good enough to get us a 3-1 ALCS lead, but not quite good enough for that last game?
I’m saying that Shapiro was absolutely good enough to win us a World Series, and the cards didn’t quite fall our way. It sucks, but it happens.
None of what’s been offered here is very deep. You point out successes, someone else points out failures, back and forth.
I believe the exact point of this little exercise was to point out that just listing a few failures in isolation isn’t at all deep.
This is a deliberately shallow exercise.
Absolutely agree. It might be argued that bringing up the Colon deal incessantly in support is equally shallow.
I can’t see that. The point is to try to bring some balance to the question of how good and bad Shapiro’s record has been at acquiring talent, which necessarily includes evaluating talent. You could take every Shapiro miss “combined,” and they still are all cancelled out by the positive effects of that one trade.
That is a point which, despite much repetition, still gets missed by Shapiro’s harshest critics. You would have a hard time refuting it, and his harshest critics of course won’t even try.
As Humphrey Bogart said to Ingrid Bergman: “We’ll always have Paris.” Shapiro can dine out on his Expos trade forever. And no one can challenge his wisdom, because he made that trade.
I’ll concede that the Bartolo trade was awesome. It was sui generis, but it was a plum. I’m not missing or refuting that trade. I honor it. But that was eight years ago. Eight.
At some point, Shapiro’s misses cancel out the effects of that one trade. If that time has not yet come, I’m ready for it to come.
My point isn’t really about that one trade (though I realize now that I didn’t make that clear). My point is that the process of acquiring talent is a long and arduous one, and it’s a normal thing to have a bunch of small misses. The question is whether you have a bunch of big hits.
Not unlike actual hitting in that respect, I guess, which makes Shapiro something of a three-true-outcomes GM. He doesn’t necessarily hit for a great average, but he draws a lot of walks (small deals that cumulatively add up to high value) and he definitely hits for power (a dozen great prospect acquisitions) — and once in a while, he hits a bomb 500+ feet.
by Jay on Jul 23, 2010 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Sure, and he strikes out 180 times a year, often with runners on second and third with two outs, and often on pitches three feet of the strike zone.
But, oh, that Rob Deer homer to the upper deck in County Stadium, on a cold night in April, with the Brewers down 6-1 in the eighth.
Of course not. Despite your eloquent defense of the boom-and-bust cycle, we have to either view Shapiro in terms of his W-L, or in terms of his birds in hand. By constantly parlaying his talent into the future, he avoids scrutiny or resolution. Sure, there was Sowers and Crowe, but look, there’s Weglarz! His victories can be as hollow as a TTO.
I blame Shapiro for the shortness of the boom cycle, but I also credit him for the shortness of the last bust cycle. Time will tell how well his 2008-2009 moves (including amateur signings) will serve the club under Antonetti’s direction. If we’re to believe the experts, those moves are looking pretty damned good, but until we know the future wins and losses, the jury will still be out — not entirely, but to some degree.
Compare average number of wins commensurate with payroll over the tenure of Shap’s ‘career’ as GM vs. other teams of similar market size. He doesn’t look terrible.
Blake: Thanks to you, I am damaged beyond repair!!
I got the sense that there was a bit of a revision on LGT over the last year on Shapiro’s performance, but judging from the above responses, he still has his staunch defenders.
Look, I’m not writing a book on Shapiro’s legacy. My comment was not meant to be the final word on his tenure. I’m just saying he’s not perfect. There’s more to evaluate beyond Shapiro being at a competitive disadvantage. Just like there is more to consider, I’m sure jay would agree, than a player’s race and speed. Ofcourse, I haven’t forgotten about his better moves. I didn’t purposely omit them.
Obviously, Shapiro at one time thought enough of the aforementioned players to acquire them in the first place. But when a player in your system goes on to have a degree of success elsewhere, that matters.
It matters, but it isn’t necessarily a reflection on your system. Sometimes you have to let a player go because of roster crunches — often in fact. It’s often a problem of having too much talent and having to make a choice. Sometimes a player with evident talent in his early 20s isn’t really going to put it together until his late 20s, and it’s literally impossible to hold onto a struggling player that long.
Phillips is a well known case. Other than that, you seem to be bothered by the slow white guys we’ve given up. It’s ridiculous, when you consider who we’ve acquired and kept, to be bothered even a little by losing the likes of Ryan Church.
jay, what does the fact that these guys are white have to do with anything? You brought race into your argument. Support its relevance.
Its relevance is that the only losses you lament are All-Stars and slow white guys.
This suggests that you may be overrating the slow white guys. Why you would do that, who can say?
So the relevance of Church, Scott, and Ludwick’s race is that the only losses I “lament” are All-Stars and slow white guys? How does that make sense when you introduced their race as a factor? I simply pointed out that Shapiro’s less than perfect record on talent evaluation included Phillips, Church, Scott, and Ludwick. “Slow white guys” were not words I used. The words I used were “Phillips, Scott, Church, and Ludwick”.
You can’t defend your bringing their race into it because you know its indefensible and irrelevant. You were called on it. You can try to turn it around and suggest that I’m the one making an issue out of it, but again, you brought it into the conversation.
The reason I lump Phillips, Church, Ludwick, and Scott together is because I was closely following the Indians minor league system when they all passed through Akron. I saw many games there.
Besides, two of the four I mentioned were not “slow white guys”. Phillips, obviously not, and Church played alot of cf in the minors and more than a handful of games in the Majors. To me that excludes him from the “slow white guys” club.
There is a significant segment of the baseball fan population — and even a number of professional baseball men — that habitually overrate certain unimpressive white players, in a manner that you almost never see regarding unimpressive players of color.
The fact that Phillips isn’t one of those players reinforces the point, rather than disproving it. Phillips is a 30-30 man, yet you mention Ryan Church in the same breath. Church is a 54-21 man for his entire career.
I understand your point. I don’t necessarily agree with it, especially in this case. Here’s why: Scott- lifetime slg .503, ops+ 121; Church had ops+ years of 118, 131, 114 (admittedly in less than 502 PAs); and Ludwick had that monster 2008 season (ops+ 150) and lifetime slg of .492.
Now I agree that, especially Ludwick and Scott, are rather one-dimensional. But thats a pretty significant dimension. To simply write them off as “slow white guys” is greatly undervaluing what they’ve accomplished as professional athletes. Hitting a baseball is a skill. And, AT TIMES, the player’s in question have done it much better than the average MLer.
I would add that there is also a segment of the groups you mentioned above that overvalue “toolsy” players, who are oftentimes of color.
I still don’t understand people lamenting the loss of Church or even Scott.
And wasn’t Ludwick a big prospect “flop” from the Tigers’ system whom we gave a ‘second chance’ hoping to win the lottery? Well, he didn’t pan out in his second chance either, and then we got unlucky when he cashed in on his “third chance” with the Cards. I can’t really fault a GM for a player’s delayed development into his potential.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Jul 25, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Ludwick was drafted by Oakland and traded to Texas and didn’t go to Detroit (Toledo, actually) until after he left Cleveland. The Tribe got him in a trade with the Rangers. Ludwick had only 247 plate appearances with the Indians over three years—well below the 500 PAs deemed sufficient for Marte. As I remember his playing time was severely restricted because he fractured his hip the year before he came to the Tribe. I’d actually say Ludwick was a Shapiro win, because the Tribe saw his value early on.
Tough not to defend many wise decisions.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Jul 23, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
We’re in a rebuild. I don’t recall us being in last place in every season of Shapiro’s tenure. Do you?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Jul 23, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the whole point of process metrics is to admit that there is non-trivial amount of random variation in results. Ludwick looks like random variation to me. Should we blame shapiro for this? I am inclined to look at this decision making process and say no.
The best anti-shapiro critiques around here have been the ones that focused on talent below AA. There is a case to be made against the Indians drafting abilities and low minors talent. Not an open and shut case, but a case. Shapiro seems pretty good at finding other people’s talent, sometimes for a song, at AA and above. He also seems reasonably good at developing the talent that we have in our own system.
there is non-trivial amount of random variation in results
Right. I’m willing to chalk Blake down to “lucky” and Ludwick to “unlucky.”
Steel Nick
Blake wasn’t luck. Blake was the product of dozens of minor league signings, diligent rehabs and career reinventions. They put in the work and should get the credit. All those times we sarcastically post, “CHAMPIONSHIP!” — that’s our front office, busting their asses to make good things happen. Good things like the entire big-league career of Casey Blake.
by Jay on Jul 23, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
The best anti-shapiro critiques around here have been the ones that focused on talent below AA
No, no it’s not. The best argument is our major league talent.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
the critiques have potential because the one is presumed to lead to the other.
We may, or may not, have a bad GM. Saying “scoreboard” only proves we presently have a bad team. You acknowledge this, implicitly, when you are willing to give Shapiro an above average grade (B-). Standings alone would give him an F.
That’s right. I think that Shapiro could do a much better job at running the Yankees than Cashman does. He’s a better than average GM. He just ain’t the best GM in baseball, and that’s what we need more than anything else to get back to the WS.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
You can’t have it both ways, Chuck. Either Cashman is the best GM in baseball because his Yankees won it all, or results aren’t the only thing that matters.
"Facebook is bad news. It and Jason Donald both crush dreams." - JRontherim
by woodsmeister on Jul 23, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree with this. You decide what success looks like for the Cleveland Indians, which is going to be different than what it looks like for the Yankees, and you measure it by results.
As imperfect as that may be, it’s the best we got. It’s a lot better than saying he’s a smart or dumb guy, they have a good or bad process even though we don’t really know what that is, or trying to pick and choose between certain transactions.
The hard part, I think, is determining what the Indians are realistically capable of given their built-in constraints. There is a danger of setting it too high or too low. It seems pretty clear that the Dolans haven’t set it too high, but I think it’s an open question whether they have set it too low. I’m not sure, it’s a pretty tough question.
You’ll hafta show me where I said that WS Championships are the only measure of success.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
So tell us, once again, Chuck what results count and what results don’t count. Please define results for us, because you throw that term around like you think it means something and every time you get called on it you bob and weave.
"Facebook is bad news. It and Jason Donald both crush dreams." - JRontherim
by woodsmeister on Jul 23, 2010 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Look, let’s not reduce this to absurdity. There’s a whole spectrum of "success". Back in the day – when there was just the American League and the National League, with eight teams in each – Cleveland’s idea of "success" was getting into the "first division" – one of the top four clubs. Even as a kid, I thought this was pretty lame. Later when they split the leagues into East and West, getting to the play-offs seemed a long way for our team to progress. But when the "Miracle" happened and we actually got in the play-offs our definition of "success" changed – mine did any way. And all of a sudden and Indian’s fan could think the unthinkable and dream the impossible – an Indians World Series pennant. No longer was making into the "first division" a success or even making it to the play-offs. What every old time an Indian’s fan dreams of is a World Championship.
So, do I know the difference between a competitive club and one that loses 100 games? Damn skippy I do. Do I understand that finishing one game outta the play-offs is better than fading at the finish dumping you out of the money? Yeah, I get that too. But I won’t pretend that finishing dead last in a bad division – like we did last year – is any kinda omen for better things ahead or that the guy running the organization is some kinda baseball genius, cuz baseball geniuses never, ever, finish dead last in bad divisions.
So, yeah I’m a big believer in results – both good and bad. When they’re good I’ll revel in them, when they’re bad – like the last few – I’ll piss and moan. But don’t try to paint me into this "if we don’t win the WS we ain’t sh*t" corner. Don’t believe that and I’m pretty sure I never said it.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
Somebody in Castro’s Indians Inbox asked if Hermann should get a shot at closing, since he throws as hard as Perez and has a better breaking ball. I’m not sure there’s a better example of why fans masquerading as scouts is pointless.
Umm, roster move. Yes, it’ll be Tood I think.
wait, are we still heavy in the pen? i assumed it would be brantley or crowe (if not a kearns trade). what about laffey to the DL and carcar up?
I don’t know much about Hermann. Is it true that he has a better breaking ball and throws as hard as Perez? If so, that’s good news in any case…
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Jul 23, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem comes from free agency signings.
How can the GM predict that Hafner goes from world beater to overpriced DH right after he signs his big extension? Also, how can the GM predict no one would show up to games in 2008 after such a fantastic season?
Unless you expect the GM to be Nostradamus… BTW, when will the next tangent bring us back to Weglarz? The horse is dead and bloody. Bury it already!!!
Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic. - Robert S. Wieder
I liked the Hafner signing at first. Figured he be decent to good into his early 30’s and then tail off like almost all the other power hitters do as they get into their mid-30’s.
Now that deal….not so much.
The Once and Future King
even with it, they’re about to be stripped down to that one lone albatross. even the indians should be able to absorb that based on their current make-up of youngness, no? i think this is evidenced some by not needing to be desperate to dump wood and westbrook’s salaries this year.
True. Their payroll next year (barring some ridiculous signing) will be clear..like you point out…of massive contracts.
Fausto makes like what….4 and change? Maybe 5 mil and change?
And then throw in some of the younger guys who will get an increase in salary…..yeah. I think the Indians should be able to absorb it. No doubt about it. And you make a good point about the Wood and Westbrook salaries.
The Once and Future King
Weglarz!
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 24, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
It looks that way now, but I’ll believe it when I see it. What’s the MLE of a short stack of pancakes?
by jhon on Jul 24, 2010 9:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

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