Alex White and His Class

by afh4 on Jul 26, 2010 12:49 PM EDT in Analysis

Every pitcher selected in the 2009 first round (supplemental included) is listed in the table below. Each pitcher's stats are 2010 cumulative unless the player has appeared in the majors. These pitchers have only their MLB stats listed. This is all an exercise in navel-gazing but I still thought it was worth sharing.

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My gut reaction, without ever having looked at a class in this way let alone at this premature point in their development is that, even leaving Strasburg aside, it's a very good class. Anyone with a better sense of this sort of thing have a comment? Where do we think White ranks among this group?

Note: I wish I could've included some better stats, namely K%, BB%, GB% and some weighted averages for rate stats for the class, but that would've taken this from about a 30 minute project to a two hour one.

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As White dominates in AA, I’ve been mulling over this very question. How good is he in relation to his peers? My gut is telling me that while it’s a very diverse group (Storen is strictly a reliever, Hobgood is talented but crude, Crow didn’t sign in 2008 and is already 23), White might be the best in show (Strasburg aside). I hope the Indians are not still thinking of him as a future reliever.

And just how good is the class? That’s harder to say, but at this point it appears no worse than average, and it might be a lot better than that.

by ken from alexandria on Jul 26, 2010 1:56 PM EDT reply actions

It’s an odd class, I would think, to already have three pitchers in the majors. Shelby Miller, Matzek and Jacob Turner seem universally adored by scouterazzi, though I might be mistaken in that impression.

The chart leaves a lot to be desired in terms of narrative, obviously-White is streaking right now while some other guys’ horrible performances at higher levels are hidden (Rex Brothers, for instance).

by afh4 on Jul 26, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Going solely off of the stats posted here, I’d rank Turner, Scheppers, Skaggs, S. Miller, Minor, and Wheeler ahead of White, and he is right there with Gibson, Boxberger, James, Matzek, Hobgood, Storen (reliever), as well. Obviously Strasburg is in a separate class.

28 pitchers were taken in the first 50, 3 of whom haven’t pitched. Within this group, I’d rank White (so far) somewhere between the 9th and 15th best performer. White was the 10th pitcher taken, and so far he has been roughly the10th best pitcher.

But the scouts love him, right? And the recent trends are good. Climb high, K rate!

by jhon on Jul 26, 2010 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

(11th pitcher taken, 10th who actually pitched)*

by jhon on Jul 26, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

That sounds roughly correct, off stats. Of course, scouts like him a lot more than Minor and Skaggs from what I’ve read and Scheppers is being slowly pushed towards the reliever pile while many still think he’s going to get injured.

by afh4 on Jul 26, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

And I’m ignoring his low ERA at the moment, and looking first to the other stats.

by jhon on Jul 26, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, just based on this season’s results, Gardner also looks like a pretty good pick-up so far especially when compared to the pitchers group who’ve pitched the most this season (ie, more than the average number of innings).

by MTF on Jul 26, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that guys picked later tend to throw more innings in their first seasons of professional ball-I don’t have a sense of how “high-upside” vs “older value” distributes through pitchers selected but I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that guys who are more mature tend to go in a greater proportion later, hence a third rounder throwing a hundred innings at this point is relatively more common than a first rounder doing so.

If that makes sense.

by afh4 on Jul 26, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that’s what everyone here is doing.

by dgcambridge on Jul 26, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Good.

by jhon on Jul 26, 2010 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s kind of scary.

by Jay on Jul 26, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Sounds about right. And throwing Strasburg aside (for obvious reasons) I still think Turner is the best pitching prospect and he has done nothing to make me assume otherwise.

And since White has been preforming as somewhere between the 9th and 15th pitcher…it looks like there are a bunch of solid pitchers coming up throughout the system of MiLB.

The Once and Future King

by FlaGators on Jul 26, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Most of these guys haven’t had to face the Clippers, though.

by jhon on Jul 26, 2010 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

But yeah, at a glance this appears to be an unusually very strong cluster of pitching prospects. Most of the clubs with the higher draft picks went with pitching.

by jhon on Jul 26, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions