How about an Open Draft Signing Thread
The first news of the day is the link in this Fanshot, 4th-rounder Kyle Blair has been signed.
almost 2 years ago
nickjs21
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Question for those of you that follow this. Which of these guys is a long shot to sign? and which signing would be a big win if we could get it done?
"I spoil a lot of people with my play." -Lebron James
keithlaw Kyle Blair got barely half from Cleveland of what he turned down out of high school. Going to college doesn’t always work out for players.
I think Wolters will be the toughest sign since he has the best chance to improve his draft leverage.
Despite being a Boras client, I don’t see how Levon Washington doesn’t sign – that would be two years in a row he’s turned down high pick offers, with very little guarantee he would be in the same position next year.
The guy I’m intrigued about is Trey Griffin, who Tony mentions might still be signable. I almost like him better than Washington.
Despite being a Boras client, I don’t see how Levon Washington doesn’t sign – that would be two years in a row he’s turned down high pick offers, with very little guarantee he would be in the same position next year.
I have a feeling he will fall then as well. In part because he has turned down offer after offer…etc.
The Once and Future King
Not making a prediction, but if Boras has a fault, it’s that in his drive for maximum return, he occasionally overplays his hand.
if Boras has a fault?
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Aug 16, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
In fact I wouldn’t mind if they went the extra mile to sign Wolters, used some of Levon’s $$ to sign Griffin, and keep the #2 compensation pick for next year.
What are you basing this on? The fact that Washington is a Boras client?
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
No – just video and scouting reports. I think Washington is overhyped and Griffin may have the better overall baseball tools.
Even if you think Washington is overhyped, he’s still a very solid prospect and the object of the draft should be to sign the players you draft. Compensation is nice and all, but teams lose quite a bit of leverage so there’s no guarantee you’d be getting an equally talented kid next year, let alone a better one (and I’m aware that next year’s class is supposed to be great, but let’s focus on this year).
We have something like 27 million under contract into next season, we better be able to freely spend on these guys.
"I spoil a lot of people with my play." -Lebron James
Practically half our draft picks were spent on guys who would have to be signed way over slot. The Indians have decided that there’s money in defying the slotting system in an almost ridiculous way. The 2008 draft was only the beginning.
I might be plucking this one out of thin air, but don’t the Red Sox and Tigers do this a lot?
Steel Nick
And the Rays, Rangers, Royals, etc. A lot of teams with a very good farm system do this. Only a couple of teams adhere to slot. The Mets come to mind.
They do, but the Indians seem to be doing it more deeply, using more rounds of the draft for this type of pick. I’m trying to imagine what kind of algorithm they use, trying to figure out whether a seventh round pick is worth a fourth round talent who wants second round money, compared with some other combination. I can’t imagine how you make calls so complex without reducing it to a number at some point.
The MLB draft is more like an exclusive-rights process where teams choose the players they can exclusively negotiate a contract. It’s Free Agency without the “free”. It’s just a way from preventing the teams with deep pockets from overpaying for all kids entering the pros (like the Daisuke signing). Therefore I think you are right to think of that $27 mill under-contract number, but do you include the other contracts signed for previous “draftees”?
I’m not sure if slotting is relevant anymore, especially since the kids can leave the offer on the table until next year, while maintaining their performance in college.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Aug 16, 2010 5:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Most draft bonuses are paid out in the first year, so the 2009 draftees mainly are part of the 2009 and 2010 budgets, and the 2010 draftees are part of the 2010 and 2011 budgets.
Thanks.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Aug 16, 2010 6:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I could live with this if this happened.
Essentially, I hope one of the three following scenarios happens:
1. We sign Washington, Wolters, AND Griffin (Would love this!)
2. We sign Wolters, Griffin, AND get the #2 compensation pick for 2011 (I could go for this too if Washington can’t be signed)
3. We sign Washington and Wolters (I’m not as familiar with Griffin, but am more intrigued, and it’s probably very optimistic to expect to sign both Washington and Griffin – option #1, both of whom sound like comparable players).
If Washington and Boras are expecting too much, I could certainly go for Option #2, as Griffin could be a long-term Washington (need more time and development, but could have comparable skills in the long run). I think though that signing Wolters is a top or near-top priority, and being that Washington is a Boras client, perhaps Wolters is the Indians’ top overall target, with Washington a very close “1b.”
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
In fact, thinking about it more, I think that might be the Indians’ plan:
Their main or top target is Wolters for the following reasons:
1. He might be more highly rated than Washington (plays SS as compared to OF, he’s younger than Washington, I think, Washington has Boras as his advisor, was drafted beforehand in the 1st round and wasn’t signed, and I think there was some issue with Washington – too cocky, reminiscient of Phillips, whereas Wolters doesn’t seem to have that same personality).
2. As Lastoria just noted on his Twitter account, losing Washington would net a 2nd Rd. compensation pick, whereas losing Wolters would net a 3rd (or is it after the 4th Rd.?) Rd. compensation pick, so projectably, you could get a higher-rated player (from a projected very good 2011 Draft) via losing Washington as compared to Wolters.
3. As mcrose mentioned, Griffin seems to have comparable tools to Washington, though probably will need longer to develop them. The Indians may try their best to sign Washington, but if they see that they are getting nowhere, they may swoop in and get Griffin along with Wolters + 2nd Rd. Compensation Pick for 2011.
I think that might be the Indians’ plan for the next 3 hours – that way, they still get the most notable one (I’m presuming they’ll get Pomeranz regardless) – Wolters – they still get a player comparable to Washington, AND they get a compensation pick for losing Washington.
I think that’s the Indians’ best case scenario, unless they can sign both Washington AND Wolters, but if they can’t, that might be what transpires. At least, I’m hopeful! :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Let’s not forget, they did draft Washington ahead of Wolters, and probably with the assumption that Wolters probably would be off the board when their next pick came up. If their real target is Wolters, that’s a funny way to show it.
I think folks are way overthinking this stuff. They want to sign all of these guys, each of them at a justifiable cost. It isn’t about comparing them.
Good point – certainly, I didn’t mean to imply that they weren’t interested in signing Washington (obviously – he did sign), but I think they might have had a back-up option for Washington – perhaps the Indians started to realize that Wolters was more likely to sign, so they had a back-up plan in place for Washington.
Obviously, and fortunately, that didn’t come to pass – they got both, which I think is very good news. To answer Lastoria’s question about “multi-tasking,” the Indians did a very good job indeed – 3 big deals in 7 minutes – very good indeed! :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
The one that hurts the most is Burch Smith not signing. He was a 3-5 round talent and got drafted in the 20th. He was always going to be a long shot, but apparently he and Indians got close … just not close enough. Loved the pick at the time.
According to Tony, Alex Lavisky has officially signed
No word on the bonus, though Tony indicated a couple of days ago that it could approach $1M.
Hoynsie says $1 million. I didn’t read Tony’s prediction, but that number seems high.
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
Both Ed’s guys have signed, comes the word out of Pittsburgh. My coworker will be insufferable tomorrow.
Steel Nick
Callis says that the Indians will sign their top three picks as well. I assume he’s heard that the deals are basically done.
He’s just holding on to hope that Washington can’t ever block Jordan Brown.
Yo tengo 619 OPS ... IN
by westbrook on Aug 16, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
He’s been saying that since yesterday, though and called it speculation on his part. I wonder if he’s heard anything more concrete. Despite Tony’s tireless efforts with regard to this organization, I tend to believe Callis more, in this case. Although that could be a byproduct of wanting to believe Callis more than Tony, in this case.
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
I think he’s in the act of throwing an overhead pass, not shooting. I’m assuming that your implication was that he’s shooting like a little bitch?
by silverbackAXP on Aug 17, 2010 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
That’d be an odd follow-through for his right hand on an overhead pass. Looks like an awkward shot.
"I spoil a lot of people with my play." -Lebron James
I think it looks like he’s flashing some sort of gang sign at someone in a tree, unaware that he’s about to be struck in the head by a huge spherical object that is hurdling toward him at great speed. I have no idea what the other two people are doing.
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
that’s the correct follow-through for a soccer throw-in I believe. You put your hands side-by-side on the ball and follow through with your thumbs.
I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough.
by notthatnoise on Aug 18, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
When’s the last time the Indians whiffed on signing a significant early round pick? Is it Cole St. Clair in 2007?
I forgot about him, though I remember the name.
A lot of the following is from memory, so excuse any errors, as some of this is a bit “fuzzy.” :-)
I can think of RHP Alan Horne out of a Florida HS in that 2001 Draft (the one with Denham, Martin, Foley, Conroy, etc.) – he was a 1st-Rd. supplemental (our 2nd overall pick). Instead, he went to Florida (I think) and was then drafted by the Yankees.
He started to put it together, but suffered some injury problems. I think I seen his stat line about 6 weeks or so ago and he was trying to come back from yet another injury with poor command, at AA (I think). Combined with the fact he’s in his mid-20s (25 or 26, I think), he turned out to not be a big loss, though at the time, he was considered pretty significant and was the first time in a while that the Indians didn’t sign a high-round (1st 5 rounds, at least) pick.
I also remember a hitter – Ben Harrison – I think, somewhere around the 2002-2003 Draft I believe, out of the Univ. of Florida(?), around the 4th Rd. – he also didn’t sign, but as it turned out, he wasn’t a big loss either, but was considered significant at the time.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Yeah, Harrison was 2003, but we had Snyder, Aubrey, Goleski, Kouz, Mulhern, Garko in that draft, and a college hitter wasn’t missed. Turns out we really haven’t really missed any of them!
Good points – both on the names and the haven’t missing any of them.
Out of all of them, it’s a toss-up between Kouz and Garko being the best of that lost, and they’ve only been marginal.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Here is the data from BA since 2003:
2003 – Ben Harrison; Univ Florida OF; 4th round
2004 – Reinaldo Alicano; Josefina Barcelo HS Puerto Rico OF; 10th round
2005 – Barry Larid; Lee HS Baytown, TX RHP; 13th round
2006 – Brant Rustich; UCLA RHP; 13th round
2007 -Allen St Clair; Rice Univ LHP; 7th round
2008 – Mitch Mormann; Dec Moines CC RHP; 17th round
2009 – Jeff Rowland; Georgia TEch OF; 21st round
With two hours to go, I wonder how this works. Are they all just constantly calling the remaining players’ agents back, or have they split up people to deal with each draftee? In that case I wonder who is making the executive decision in each group over how much money is too much. It’s got to be some form of the former, right?
Steel Nick
I would presume they would have teams, as they’ll have to be able to finish off multiple contracts within a short time span, since it looks like Pomeranz, Washington, Wolters, and possibly Griffin (not as likely as the other 3) will all come down to the final hour.
Probably, they have the general guidelines on how far they can go, with perhaps a little “wiggle room” for negotiation. If they are in the general ballpark, I’m sure these teams have the contact numbers for whoever is the head of the negotiations (Shapiro? Antonetti? Dolan? Not sure) and can get in touch with them instantly (it’s likely these guys are doing nothing else but keeping track of what is going on, since this night only comes once every season. :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
TonyIPI
Just got confirmation from impeccable source that 3rd rounder Tony Wolters is actually still in play for the #Indians.
Steel Nick
Given that this is the fact, one wonders how/why the previous rumor got started 10 min ago or however long ago that was…
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 16, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
In Lastoria’s twitter feed, what do people mean when they refer to “big league deal” regarding Pomeranz?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 16, 2010 11:09 PM EDT reply actions
I could be mistaken, but I believe it means a player has to be added to the 40-man roster withing a certain timeframe. Not sure if he actually has to play as well.
Yes, that’s one thing it means. Nearly all amateurs are given signing bonuses to sign minor league deals. They are committed to a team’s minor league system for 6+ seasons, with the option at any point of converting the contract to a major league deal for up to 6+ seasons in the majors.
If a draft pick is given a major league deal, the minor league deal simply never happens. They are on the 40-man roster right from the start and (accordingly) have to be optioned down to the minors. They get four option years and then can’t be sent to the minors anymore, a development that normally would occur three seasons later. Their initial contract and bonus also becomes a factor in estimating and setting their arbitration salaries (which is how, in my example, Teixeira got $37 million while Longoria will only get $2 million).
So really a team has nothing to gain from a minor vs major league contract unless they think they cannot sign the player otherwise. And in that case, he better be some player. Is that correct?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 16, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, I meant that they have nothing to gain from the ML contract rather than a minor league one. They have what to lose, it seems.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 16, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m guessing it doesn’t extend into free agent period… Does it cover arbitration years? Is it “big-league” monetarily too? And is there anything to gain for the team in such a situation (relative to a non ML contract)? Or does only the draftee benefit from that?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 16, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
There is no benefit to the club, except that occasionally they can get a small concession in the bonus amount. Big hit on the back-end through arbitration though.
A big league deal can cover any number of years, which may or may not turn out later to be arbitration years. Strasburg’s deal covered 2009-2012. He will not reach arbitration for 2013 since they played his service time carefully, but they’ll still be compelled to pay him $3 million that season because of the “max cut” rule — once a salary is high, it’s staying high through the reserve/tender system and getting higher through arbitration. He may well make over $60 million through his first six seasons.
Guthrie had a major league deal didn’t he?
by The Grimace on Aug 16, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes. Guthrie has claimed that it was the Indians idea, that they preferred to do that rather than give him a larger signing bonus. I don’t think that’s been confirmed or denied. I don’t know what it ever cost us in terms of clogging up the 40-man, but there’s reason to believe that the ticking option clock was not good for Guthrie’s development and possibly was psyching him out for most of his time in the minors.
That was what I thought, thanks. Any other high picks we’ve given the ML deal too?
by The Grimace on Aug 16, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Trolling for twitters that are at best third hand info. This is the stupidest hour of the baseball season.
by mcrose on Aug 16, 2010 11:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
That’s not nearly as smug as my Yankee fan co-worker today who, when he walked upon me and an Orioles fan co-worker talking about the signing deadline, said, “When is the draft, anyway? We [Yankee fans, presumably] don’t give a shit.” When we told him the draft had already happened he said, “Did we get anybody good? You guys would know.”
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
When the revolution comes, he’ll be against the wall.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Aug 16, 2010 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Right next to the marketing department of Sirius Cybernetics Corporation.
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
by woodsmeister on Aug 17, 2010 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have to think the midnight trading deadline would have been twitter hell
by The Grimace on Aug 16, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
http://twitter.com/castrovince/status/21370945370 and Mayo are reporting that the Indians are still working on a deal with Pomeranz, but it’s unlikely to be a big league deal.
Tony thinks there’s a good chance 2 of the top 3 picks will sign.
Meanwhile, Castro makes another mindless pop culture reference. Why do the best young sportswriters insist that Bill Simmons is the way to go?
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
Well, there is that. But I highly doubt sportswriters who mimic his style roll their eyes and sigh, “The things I do for money…” as they prepare to make a low-culture reference in a sports column. It seems at some point, people decided that this was legitimately funny and warranted in sports journalism.
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
they can be announced after midnight just so long as the paperwork is filed right?
by The Grimace on Aug 16, 2010 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Great point.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 17, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I can’t tell if Castro’s “Shocker” is sarcastic or not. I thought he was expected to be sign, and it was supposed to go down to the wire.
Steel Nick
Well we got our #1 guy, that’s always good. Now he just has to pitch.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 17, 2010 12:01 AM EDT reply actions
Oh, snap. He does, doesn’t he.
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
by Ockus_NYC on Aug 17, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What’s with the hash marks and @ symbols in twitter? Is there any rationale?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 17, 2010 12:02 AM EDT reply actions
- denotes a topic, kind of like the tag of a fanshot. You can click on anything with a # preceding it and see every recent tweet by anyone using that same tag.
@ the beginning of a person’s twitter handle, and so is a way to address them. If you include @(their handle) in the tweet, they will see it, even if they don’t follow you.
Steel Nick
Thanks. I wonder why they went with # tags instead of just hyperlinking the names, but that will be helpful.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 17, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I see.
…I’m googling that.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 17, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
hoynsie
#Indians sign Drew Pomeranz for $2.65 million. Signed No.2 pick LeVon Washington and No.3 pick Tony Wolters as well.
Holy balls.
Steel Nick
I like the name LeVon. It’s like [unnamed] except with victory involved, hence the V.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 17, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I had a nice chuckle from that.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 17, 2010 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Although it makes a lot more sense than my own comment if you meant it seriously! Yet it’s still funny.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 17, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
google autocompleted drew pomeranz after typing in “drew.” that’s impressive.
I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough.
by notthatnoise on Aug 18, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
tribeinsider says: The #Indians signed each of their first 14 picks from the 2010 First-Year Player Draft and 25 of their overall 50 selections. #mlbdraft
Anyone know how that compares with say, last year? Or recent years in general?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 17, 2010 12:08 AM EDT reply actions
From what I recall, the 25/50 may be a bit low (I think we’ve averaged over 50% in the last few seasons), but we had mostly filler and low-ceiling players in those drafts. This draft had more high-ceiling and tougher signs, so in the end, this draft could be more impactful than those drafts (and those drafts where we signed more have had some notable guys in the earlier rounds – White, Gardner, Chisenhall, etc.), but this draft had more of those noted guys and were signed by the Indians – the Top 3, Blair, Cook, Levinsky, Holt, Jones, Goodnight, Brown, etc.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
This is basically right. The Indians actually predicted they would only sign about 20 picks this year, down from previous years, for exactly the reason you stated. I think they said 20.
I believe you’re right – I think I heard “20” as well. The fact it’s 25 is actually a little higher than expected.
I think, though, that we’d take signing fewer picks if it means higher quality picks that have more impact at the ML level. Too few of our picks when we were signing 30+ guys out of 50 were really making an impact at the ML level (we talked about Aubrey, Snyder, Mulhern, Goleski, Kouzmanoff, Garko in a post before) – these guys we signed from this 2010 Draft are projected to have more impact. Now, we have to be able to develop that talent and make sure it happens as most project it will.
Besides that, our farm system is pretty well filled-out with quality players, but we also have a lot of “filler” or guys not expected to make any impact, but just holding the fort on the farm – guys like Montero, Kersten, Turek, etc. Therefore, we don’t really have to sign draft picks just to fill out our Minor League rosters like it seemed like we did with earlier drafts, plus we can also sign undrafted FAs and/or Minor League FAs to do that.
Essentially, I think this new draft strategy could be better for ML team in the long run – let’s hope that happens!
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I have to say that this draft turned out cheaper than I thought it would be. The Lavisky signing (1 million (wtf?)) was the outlier – the top 3 picks all signed for less than I expected, and the total outlay was probably less than 10M.
They ignored slot dollars in higher rounds and used slot numbers for top picks very well. Kudos to the FO for the signings – that said, and despite the draft day huzzas for riskier picks, I think the talent itself is less than last years’ crop, but time will tell.
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