FanPost

Fun with Sabermetrics! Or, WARrior in Woolworths

So, since it's been so long we've all probably forgotten, what does it take to compete for a playoff spot? How much talent does one need to amass? Using WAR as a handy means of assessment, here are the 1995-2009 averages for AL playoff teams, in Batters WAR/Pitchers WAR/Total WAR:

AL EAST 26/20 46
AL CENT 22/19 41
AL WEST 26/18 44
AL WC 28/18 46

AL Central WAR is about 90% that of the AL East.

Here are Cleveland's splits in Batter's WAR/Pitcher's WAR since 2002:

2002 14.6 7.4
2003 16.5 9.7
2004 26.7 6.6
2005 29.8 16.0
2006 24.0 15.6
2007 18.5 25.5
2008 20.2 13.6
2009 21.3 -2.3
2010 14.2 1.2

Cleveland has had better batter WAR totals than the ALC champs in every year since 2003, until this year, but hasn't, save for 2007, been able to keep pace with pitching talent; 5 of the last 6 ALC champs have amassed 20+ pitching WAR, and Minnesota could get there again this year. Cleveland, meanwhile, fell off a Cliff.

How has the Tribe done in the last, post-glory days decade? Let's express Cleveland's total WAR as a percentage of the Central Division Champs' (or runner-up's) WAR, and as a percentage of the New York WAR, just for fun:

2002 59 40
2003 78 53
2004 100 76
2005 104 110
2006 103 88
2007 107 91
2008 84 88
2009 47 39
2010 42 40

Ave 72 63

Cleveland ought to have been in the thick of things in the Central a lot, if you believe WAR. Whatever. At any rate, climbing back up this mountain is probably 10-15% easier against the ALC competition than if they had to deal with the East. Even if the Tigers have Jhonny. Or because they do.

FanPosts are reader-generated, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Covering the Corner or the Covering the Corner staff.