Revisiting 2010 Pecota Projections

by millionairesrow on Aug 19, 2010 2:34 PM EDT

Slow day at work today, so much so that I was taking a look at our reglars' 2010 Pecota projections compared to where we are through 120 games. Thought I would post for others to see.

2010 Pecota Indians record: 69-93 (.426)

Indians record: 49-71 (.408)

Batters

Choo 2010 Pecota: .272/.370/.430

Choo 2010: .291/.389/.467

3 word synopsis: Big league Choo

Crowe 2010 Pecota: .233/.282/.437

Crowe 2010: .253/.310/.253

3 word synopsis: Crowe is Crowe

Hafner 2010 Pecota: .267/.350/.442

Hafner 2010: .271/.375/.444

3 word synopsis: Shoulder still hurts

LaPorta 2010 Pecota: .246./333/.435

LaPorta 2010: .239/.315/.368

3 word synopsis: Ryan Garko plus

Donald 2010 Pecota: .241/.324/.345

Donald 2010: .256/.315/.393

3 word synopsis: Jamey Carroll who?

Cabrera 2010 Pecota: .303/.357/.409

Cabrera 2010: .287/.344/.371

3 word synopsis: Feeling better now

Pitchers (ERA, WHIP)

Carmona 2010 Pecota: 5.00/1.49

Carmona 2010: 4.14/1.369

3 word synopsis: Best on staff

Masterson 2010 Pecota: 4.87/1.48

Masterson 2010: 5.23/1.615

3 word synopsis: Lefties like Justin

Talbot 2010 Pecota: 5.42/1.60

Talbot 2010: 4.25/1.456

3 word synopsis: Pleasantly solid starter

C. Perez 2010 Pecota: 3.43/1.37

C. Perez 2010: 2.28/1.204

3 word synopsis: rage, rage RAGE!

T. Sipp 2010 Pecota: 3.82/1.46

T. Sipp 2010: 4.86/1.489

3 word synopsis: Hit and miss

R. Perez 2010 Pecota: 4.14/1.38

R. Perez 2010: 3.33/1.543

3 word synopsis: Welcome back Raffy

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Comments

Research rec. Although that’s not Crowe’s slugging, as much as I’d like to believe that.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Aug 19, 2010 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

It’s 351. Ouch.

by YoDaddyWags on Aug 19, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

So they predicted Crowe to have as much power as Hafner?

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 19, 2010 6:24 PM EDT reply actions

Glad I’m not the only one that thought that jumped out as absurd

Where's your crown, KIng Nothing?

by Turkmenbashi on Aug 23, 2010 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually, they predicted Crowe to have the higher ISO.

by Jay on Aug 23, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Interesting how Crowe is overrated. I wonder why anyone thought he would be good, yet the Indians and Pecota saw something I don’t see.

by odradek on Aug 24, 2010 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I have made a fairly strict policy of not evaluating draft picks too carefully or second-guessing them, purely out of a recognition that we don’t really have much of the information the teams use to make those decisions. Crowe is different, though. He was overtly baffling right from the start.

by Jay on Aug 25, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

This is a nice roundup. I do think it’s noteworthy that the PECOTA numbers undoubtedly were generated with a higher expectation of run scoring, league-wide. If you translate the original PECOTA for 10% less scoring (or whatever it is at the moment), then the avg, obp, slg, ERA and WHIP numbers would all go down a bit.

by Jay on Aug 20, 2010 12:49 AM EDT reply actions